The WUWT Hotsheet for Tuesday Sept 24th, 2013

IPCC on the hotseat…

WUWT_hot_sheet8

IPCC Chairman Denies Global Warming Slowdown

Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the UN’s climate panel, dismissed suggestions of a slowdown in global warming. “There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,” he told me. “I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase). I would like to draw your attention to the World Meteorological Organization which clearly stated on the basis of observations that the first decade of this century has been the warmest in recorded history. And I think the rest will be brought out by the report itself when it’s released.” –Roger Harrabin, BBC News, 23 September 2013

BBC_no_rise_1998

The imagery on the BBC 10 O’Clock News, 23 September 2013

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Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

IPCC-vs-GW_slowdown

 

Germany’s Federal Ministry of Research would prefer to leave any discussion of the global warming hiatus entirely out of the new IPCC report summary. The Ministry for the Environment’s identical stance: “Climate fluctuations that don’t last very long are not scientifically relevant.” Germany’s highest-ranking climate researcher, physicist Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, in Hamburg, is fighting back against this refusal to face facts. Marotzke, who is also president of the German Climate Consortium and Germany’s top scientific representative in Stockholm, promises, “We will address this subject head-on.” The IPCC, he says, must engage in discussion about the standstill in temperature rise. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

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“Climate policy needs the element of fear,” Ott openly admits. “Otherwise, no politician would take on this topic.” –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

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For a quarter of a century now, environmental activists have been issuing predictions in the vein of the Catholic Church, warning people of the coming greenhouse effect armageddon. Environmentalists bleakly predict global warming will usher in plagues of biblical dimensions — perpetual droughts, deluge-like floods and hurricanes of unprecedented force. The number of people who believe in such a coming apocalypse, however, has considerably decreased. A survey conducted on behalf of SPIEGEL found a dramatic shift in public opinion — Germans are losing their fear of climate change. While in 2006 a sizeable majority of 62 percent expressed a fear of global warning, that number has now become a minority of just 39 percent. –Axel Bojanowski, Olaf Stampf and Gerald Traufetter, Spiegel Online, 23 September 2013

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The Met Office method of predicting climate change contains flaws that cause it to overestimate the warming Britain will experience, according to a report by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. The conflict between computer model predictions and actual measurements of the temperature is being discussed this week in Stockholm by climate scientists and government officials from around the world. The IPCC’s summary is expected to include an admission that there are weaknesses in the results from computer models which appear at odds with the slowdown in the rate of global warming since 1998. —Ben Webster, The Times, 24 September 2013

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The Met Office was unable to say yesterday how long the 15-year apparent pause in global warming would have to continue before it accepted its model was flawed. A spokesman said: “No date has been set at which point you’d say the models are wrong. Short-term fluctuations in global temperature do not invalidate models, or determine timelines for their development.” —Ben Webster, The Times, 24 September 2013

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has an image problem. It appears unsure how to regain the trust of voters and politicians, but not of the science it is supposed to assess. This week’s report is expected to conclude with more confidence than ever that humans have caused more than half the planet’s warming in the past 60 years. This may seem provocative in the circumstances, but the truth is that the real question for scientists now is not whether climate change is happening but how fast. So far there are only theories as to why the Earth has warmed so much slower in the past 15 years than some models predicted. The models may have been wrong. The scenarios inferred from them may have been alarmist. This much is clear: the IPCC must tackle head-on what it calls the “hiatus” in global warming, and follow the evidence rather than buckle to political pressure from either side of the debate. —The Times Editorial, 24 September 2013

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So, it’s come down to this — we now have widespread agreement from numerous true believers that the climate models — the only source of scary scenarios — are junk. But the true believers want us to take action on climate change regardless, out of prudence, on the mere possibility that the sky could be falling. It’s an “insurance policy,” Pindyck explains, with other true believers nodding in agreement. This is a peculiar species of insurance policy, one where the premiums that we’re being asked to pay total literally trillions of dollars, where the perils that we’re being protected against are ill- or undefined, and where — should any of the perils ever materialize — no benefits will be paid out to us policyholders. –Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, 24 September 2013

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Their fear is that the intergovernmental panel might be pulling punches.

It turns out that the Nobel Prize, welcome as it might have been back in 2007, served the same function it has for many other scientists who have won it over the years: it painted a fat target on the committee’s back. The group has been subjected to attack in recent years by climate skeptics. The intimidation tactics have included abusive language on blogs, comparisons to the Unabomber, e-mail hacking and even occasional death threats.

Who could blame the panel if it wound up erring on the side of scientific conservatism? Yet most citizens surely want something else from the group: an unvarnished analysis of the risks they face.

To be clear, even if the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ends up sticking with the lowball numbers in these two instances, they are worrisome enough. As best scientists can tell, the question with sea level is not whether it is going to get to three feet and then five feet of increase, but merely whether it will happen in this century or the next.

A Climate Alarm, Too Muted for SomeJustin Gillis, NYTimes.com

h/t to Dr. Benny Peiser at The GWPF and Marc Morano for these sources

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tadchem

“There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible” tells me that their *belief* is straying ever further from Reality.

milodonharlani

Hottest decade in recorded history? Well, yes, since the record starts in 1979.
But if its the thermometer record, then, no, not based upon unadjusted data. That would be the 1930s, since the thermometer was invented during the depths of the Little Ice Age.
If its on the paleoclimate proxy record, then no, not even close. Ten of thousands of decades have been warmer in the Holocene, to say nothing of millennia during the Eemian integlacial, the interglacials which preceded it during the Pleistocene, previously in the Pliocene, Miocene, Oligocene, Eocene & Paleocene Epochs, most if not all of the Mesozoic Era & most of the Paleozoic, with rare exceptions.
Climate isn’t weather. Decades don’t have climate. Minimum time frame for “climate” is 30 years, but 300, 3000 or 30,000 is more like it.

TomRude

It’s funny to watch the same actors (bankers, media mogul, activists/scientists, journalists) rise as a chorus of doom… except now they are playing “naked”.

dp

Alone in a group that appears to be in denial of the observed reality, Pachauri seems most unreachable with non-modeled analyses, or what we call “data”. He would be the ultimate denier. His fiction appears to go beyond his porn writings straight to climate porn. Still fiction.

TeeWee

What is interesting is that the media (at least those sources Anthony included) do not echo the view voiced by Pachauri. New York Times excluded. Could responsible journalism (again, New York Times excluded) be emerging? Let’s see how the broadcast media plays up the story.

For the ESL and English impaired (Especially Pachauri). Warmest =/= Warming!
It warmed to our current decade high. But that does not mean it is WARMING now.
At the peak of the MWP, it was the “warmest decade on record”, but it did not continue to warm.

Hari Seldon

‘There’s definitely an increase in our belief …
say no more

G. Karst

Some may be wondering what has happened to Tim Flannery since fired down under:
Australia Climate Council revived after being axed
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-24216988

Prime Minister Tony Abbott axed the Climate Commission, set up by the previous government, last week.
But the group resurrected itself as the Climate Council, saying it hoped “Obama-style” public donations raised online would keep it open

GK

DirkH

The German election has erased all kinds of climate skepticism and Euro skepticism from the German Bundestag – there were some pockets within the FDP which didn’t make it.
(The reason for the collapse of the FDP is that they purged themselves from their own skeptics before the election; removing them from the list. So the only chance for skepticism in the new Bundestag was the new AfD anyway).
As it stands, the Gleichschaltung is complete in Germany.

wellingtonx1@btinternet.com

The IPCC is a political organisation and I remain amazed that any adult with half a brain would ever even listen to a politician might say, I never did and I never would. Amazing statement “the models might be wrong” again why would anyone be surprised or ever take a computer model seriously, clearly there are some who do think that anything a computer spits out must be of a higher order and in the case of the climate backed up by God, who else? With just a tiny fraction of humanity willing to take any notice whatsoever of the IPCC and the number is dwindling, first Australia and now it appears the greens in Germany are struggling, China couldn’t care less, India is so far up sh.t creek it cant and the EU continues to export huge numbers of gas guzzlers across the planet to keep the EU alive and I am fairly sure that this wont stop any time soon. Beijing puts another 1500 cars on the road every day and there are now over 1 billion cars on the planet, Co2 what? The EU exports what the EPA call poison, Obama says anyone who emits more Co2 than is acceptable will be charged with a criminal offence and the EPA say Co2 must be reduced otherwise crops wont grow. The lunatics are running the asylum and the warders – the IPCC – are the cooperative flunkies of those who just want to sharpen up their environmentalist image for our consumption to persuade us that they are saving the planet by destroying it first. Five more years and they are toast, I might live that long to see them burn.

gopal panicker

cooling the last three years…get used to it

Resourceguy

Let’s see now the life support system for the EU economy and accountability of debt-based society depends on German leaders and now the accountability of climate science and carbon tax schemes depends on German insistence on accountability from the IPCC. Could we all just collect donations to give to Germany to manage the world in lieu of leaderless nations elsewhere.

DirkH

G. Karst says:
September 24, 2013 at 8:45 am
“But the group resurrected itself as the Climate Council, saying it hoped “Obama-style” public donations raised online would keep it open”
Council, in Russian, is “Soviet”.

““There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,””
What an interesting turn of phrase.

DirkH

Resourceguy says:
September 24, 2013 at 8:56 am
“and now the accountability of climate science and carbon tax schemes depends on German insistence on accountability from the IPCC. Could we all just collect donations to give to Germany to manage the world in lieu of leaderless nations elsewhere.”
What? It is the German government – no matter which coalition; the Bundestag is now 100% warmist – that demands from the IPCC to remove all utterances about a pause in warming.
And as for “leaderless”; well it really doesn’t matter which coalition now forms in Germany; they are all for a further dissolution of all EU nation states into one big undemocratic Eurocracy with no constitution – and EU justice trumps the constitutions of the member states already!
The EU is the prototype for the intended world government.
The next action of the German government will make sure the assets of the German citizens get evenly distributed across the Eurozone to keep the failing monster going for a little while longer.

Latitude

and temps stopped rising when CO2 should have had the most effect…..

Taphonomic

“I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase).”
He should have stopped with “I don’t think.” Is Pachy now denying observational data that there is a hiatus in warming?

Bob

OMG, look how Suzuki embarrasses himself.
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/txt/s3841115.htm

Eustace Cranch

Q: Which decade, in any temperature record set, is the warmest of the set?
A: The last one, right before it starts cooling.

Latitude

Bob says:
September 24, 2013 at 9:30 am
OMG, look how Suzuki embarrasses himself.
====
David Suzuki on the very first question is revealed as a complete know-nothing. His questioner tells him that the main climate data sets show no real warming for some 15 years.
Suzuki asks for the references, which he should have known if he knew anything of the science.
His questioner then lists them: UAH, RSS, HadCrut and GISS – four of the most basic measurement systems of global temperature.
Suzuki asks what they are.
(the updates at the bottom are even better)
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/suzuki_revealed_as_complete_know_nothing_by_very_first_question_on_qa/

“I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase).”
These are not the droids..oh, the heck with it. I’m tired of dealing with liars, buffoons and demagogues.

Latimer Alder

Delightful twist (even if unconscious) that the BBC lady in the picture is Fiona Bruce who also presents the popular Real Crime show – Crimewatch UK. Clearly typecast when reporting on IPCC matters.

more soylent green!

Money quote:

“There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,

Well, if their beliefs are increasing, who are any of us to argue with that?

Dodgy Geezer

…Prime Minister Tony Abbott axed the Climate Commission, set up by the previous government, last week. But the group resurrected itself as the Climate Council, saying it hoped “Obama-style” public donations raised online would keep it open…
Thanks for that! I needed a laugh at this point in the week…

Brendan

[snip – off topic – mod]

SkepticGoneWild

OMG. Pachauri is a total dumb***. Even if it is the warmest decade, the trend can still be zero. The guy is a total math idiot. Such stupidity.

Dodgy Geezer

@more soylent green!
…Well, if their beliefs are increasing, who are any of us to argue with that?…
IPCC Creed.
(appointed to be read at Climate Conferences)
I believe in Global Warming,
which will destroy heaven and earth unless we change our ways.
I believe in Al Gore,
Who conceived the Internet
and the hockey-stick graph, born of Professor Mann.
It suffered under McIntyre and McKitrick,
was crucified, disproven, and was buried.
It was cast on the reject pile.
On the third day It rose again.
It was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science,
and is displayed in a prominent position in all IPCC literature.
It will apply again as soon as global temperatures start rising.
I believe in the CO2 tipping point,
the IPCC Assessment Reports,
a CO2 sensitivity figure of over 4 C/W,
the accuracy of GCMS,
an anthropic cause for all climate variation after 1970,
and grants everlasting. AMEN.

Bob

Latitude, thanks for the update links. Imagine that he commands $30,000 per lecture. He is a total fraud.

steven

Our new energy sec. Edward Moniz testified before congress: “The evidence is overwhelming, the science is clear, and the threat from climate change is real and urgent. This is my judgment and it is the almost universal judgment of the scientific community.” He adds: “The basic science behind climate change is simple: greenhouse gases make the earth warmer, and we are emitting more and more of them into the atmosphere.”
This guy is no buffoon like algore, but an actual nuclear physicist. Yet he would utter something so ridiculous as this?

Bob says: September 24, 2013 at 9:30 am “OMG, look how Suzuki embarrasses himself.” Suzuki was forever impeached as a witch doctor by his jape of Cassini/Huygens’ RTGs.

Gunga Din

Data shows global temperatures aren’t rising the way climate scientists have predicted. Now the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change faces a problem: publicize these findings and encourage skeptics — or hush up the figures.

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Or perhaps just change them?
As a follow up to this comment http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/23/access-the-leaked-ipcc-ar5-draft-summary-for-policymakers/#comment-1424991, I looked at the list of record highs for my area I obtained from the NWS in April of 2012.
One record high was set in 2010.
The list I obtained in July of 2012 has 8 record highs in 2010.
No wonder people are getting so hot about Global Warming!

mark wagner

that whatever number of warmest years in whatever period are clustered around the peak should not be a surprise. that’s why it’s called a “peak.”

KevinM

Again the diagram supplied uses the “less CO2” IPCC predictions of temperature with the “more C02” while the world followed scenario, to “hide the decline” is confidence.

Theo Goodwin

“There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible”
Well, that settles it! Their beliefs have always been inadequate to the task and are doubly so now.

Theo Goodwin

Excellent “Hot Sheet,” Thanks.

Kitefreak

Latimer Alder says:
September 24, 2013 at 9:54 am
Delightful twist (even if unconscious) that the BBC lady in the picture is Fiona Bruce who also presents the popular Real Crime show – Crimewatch UK. Clearly typecast when reporting on IPCC matters.
——————————-
Well spotted! I didn’t see the show as I don’t watch TV, but it’s a great image – love it!
“Playing naked”…. they all are now – not just in the climate arena, either. They are getting away with it because people have been successfully conditioned to think it is normal (their leaders playing naked).Clever.. I think that’s called predictive programming. Sorry just looked that up on wikipedia – it’s a conspiracy theory.. what a f*in surprise!.
Bottom line? They can keep on telling lies and get away with it. Maybe that image is the programmer’s – BBC’s – idea of a joke: no global warming for fifteen years and you’re still getting screwed. BWAHAAHAA, etc..

Alan Robertson

“There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,” – Rajendra Pachauri
_______________________
FAIL

Berényi Péter

Rajendra Pachauri is not a scientist, he is a businessman, with massive conflicts of interest. Why would anyone listen to him?
He is CEO (Director-General) of TERI, The Energy and Resources Institute (former Tata Energy and Resources Institute), which develops and sells intellectual property under the motto “Creating Innovative Solutions for a Sustainable Future”. As a huge private non profit research organization, with global reach now, it is heavily involved in politics all over the world while collecting fat funds from governments and government sponsored alternative energy corporations.
Generating &. maintaining a carbon scare is in its prime interest, otherwise its resources may dry up. That’s what Mr. Pachauri is working on tirelessly under the auspices of the IPCC.
This year TERI has been ranked first in the ICCG (International Center for Climate Governance) Climate Think Tank Ranking under the category “Absolute Global Rankings”.

sophocles

Pachauri says:
There’s definitely an increase in our belief that climate change is taking place and that human beings are responsible,””
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Belief? Ah, where has the science and the scientific method gone?
Belief requires religion …
… and the Congregation of the Church of Climatology are still expressing
the sentiments, and thinking, of the Witch Hunts of the 16th and 17th
Centuries. No surprises (or changes) there.
“Whenever something changes, it’s somebody[else]’s fault.”
This planet orbits its parent star, a variable star at that, deep in its
atmosphere. TSI measured in visible and longer wavelengths is
reasonably constant, but magnetic activity and UV (ultra violet)
radiation (which plants just love, like CO2) fluctuate quite significantly.
`Couldn’t possibly be anything to do with the sun … can’t see any
changes there.’ Uh huh.
But apart from a few stalwarts conducting real experimental science,
all the other x-spurts (where x is ‘The Unknown Quantity’ and a ‘Spurt’
is a drip under pressure) keep subscribing to Witch-Craft.
I’ve had to top up on popcorn and beer. Ran a bit low recently but
the drama is becoming interesting!

The temperature trend from 1998-2012 has no rise , if anything a slight decline despite co2 increases.
It is only going to get worse going forward as the prolonged solar minimum the real climate driver starts to exert more and more influence on the climate going forward.

William McClenney

The IPCC, the fool’s gold standard of climate science.

Their belief appears to be inversely proportional to the supporting evidence. I would like to a graph of this anomaly in the final report. My model shows the AGW belief will soon reach a tipping point and run away if evidence continues to dwindle.

Steven Hill

He is correct, we are in a full blown ice adjusted by man’s activity. After this sun minimum cycle 24 and 25, the temps will sky rocket up 10-7C!!! 😉

Steven Hill

ICE AGE that is…..right in the middle of it. 😉

TomRude says:
September 24, 2013 at 8:29 am
It’s funny to watch the same actors (bankers, media mogul, activists/scientists, journalists) rise as a chorus of doom… except now they are playing “naked”.
————————————————————————
and it is not a pretty play to watch.

CRS, DrPH

This is an amusing essay about the folly of believing the AGW crowd and investing in sunken swimming pools…in Britain!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10138096/The-weather-prophets-should-be-chucked-in-the-deep-end.html

They imagined the poolside parties they would have when the warming really kicked in: the barbecues; the bikinis; the pina coladas. They saw themselves on their lilos talking to their brokers on their mobile phones or getting up early on a glorious summer day and diving in unclothed when no one else was around. They thought they were doing the sensible thing and getting ready for a Californian lifestyle – and they were fools! Fools who believed that the global warming soothsayers really meant what they said or that they had a clue what the weather would be in the next 10 years.

Resourceguy

@Dirk
Okay, Dirk has the details on Germany. There are a few loose ends though. The Greens polled only half of what they had been doing in the latest elections. And Merkel has now got to come to grips with the nuclear wind down and soaring energy costs and utility firms in chaos.

Paul Pierett

It is All About sunspot activity which the IPPC ignores.

herkimer

Pauchauri said
“I don’t think there is a slowdown (in the rate of temperature increase)”
Pauchauri earlier this year in an Australian interview clearly admitted the 16 year pause was real. Now under pressure he denies it . Resorting to lies is just another talent of these alarmists. When science fails , lie hoping that the public will not notice. How can anyone trust the rest of IPCC when its leader is untruthful.

Billy Liar

I think I must be related to Roger Harrabin, he’s ‘another Liar’.