“Covering up” the pause:
World’s top climate scientists told to ‘cover up’ the fact that the Earth’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years
Scientists working on the most authoritative study on climate change were urged to cover up the fact that the world’s temperature hasn’t risen for the last 15 years, it is claimed. Leaked documents seen by the Associated Press yesterday revealed deep concerns among politicians about a lack of global warming over the past few years.
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…leaked documents seen by the Associated Press, yesterday revealed deep concerns among politicians about a lack of global warming over the past few years.
Germany called for the references to the slowdown in warming to be deleted, saying looking at a time span of just 10 or 15 years was ‘misleading’ and they should focus on decades or centuries.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has changed its tune after issuing stern warnings about climate change for years
Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate change.
Belgium objected to using 1998 as a starting year for statistics, as it was exceptionally warm and makes the graph look flat – and suggested using 1999 or 2000 instead to give a more upward-pointing curve.
The United States delegation even weighed in, urging the authors of the report to explain away the lack of warming using the ‘leading hypothesis’ among scientists that the lower warming is down to more heat being absorbed by the ocean – which has got hotter.
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Finally, the IPCC has toned down its climate change alarm. Can rational discussion now begin?
Next week, those who made dire predictions of ruinous climate change face their own inconvenient truth. The summary of the fifth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be published, showing that global temperatures are refusing to follow the path which was predicted for them by almost all climatic models. Since its first report in 1990, the IPCC has been predicting that global temperatures would be rising at an average of 0.2° Celsius per decade. Now, the IPCC acknowledges that there has been no statistically significant rise at all over the past 16 years.
It is difficult to over-emphasise the significance of this report
More at The Spectator
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meanwhile… Gavin Schmidt dismisses the pause with a wave of the hand:
“This whole thing is just a blogstorm in a teacup”
“This whole thing is just a blogstorm in a teacup,” the British climatologist told CBSNews.com “The IPCC is there to assess the literature and tell people what the scientists are saying.” The report is meant to explain what scientists have reported, not conduct original science, he continued. “The idea that IPCC needs to be up to date on what was written last week is just ridiculous.”
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“It skews all of these diagnostics. Look at the long-term content, and ocean heat temperature is rising. We’re doing things to the planet that are geological in scope. I don’t use those words lightly.”
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He doesn’t expect the IPCC to devote much time to the issue of the apparent lull. “This whole thing has an element for ‘what can we find to try to undermine the IPCC’ before it’s even done, and there’s a lot of that going around this week,” he said.
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The deniers’ approach, says Schmidt is, “sling enough mud and hope something sticks. This seems to be a little sticky so this will be what they focus on.”
Controversy over U.N. report on climate change as warming appears to slow – CBS News
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Obama aims to ‘criminalize’ CO2 emissions — ‘If you’re pumping more than your legal limit of CO2 into the sky, well then, you sir, are a criminal’
Read the Full Article at Bloomberg News
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Eric Worrall writes:
Yet another climate fanatic has demanded the suspension of democratic processes:
This is because the implications of 3C, let alone 4C or 5C, are so horrible that we look to any possible scenario to head it off, including the canvassing of “emergency” responses such as the suspension of democratic processes.
This article was published in mainstream Australian media, on the eve of the Australian election.
Calls for green totalitarianism used to be comparatively rare, and therefore newsworthy – for example, Suzuki’s call to jail politicians who disagree with him, or Hansen’s promotion of Chinese style totalitarianism were widely seen as aberrations, as mistakes, as unrepresentative of the true feelings of people concerned about climate change.
However it is not difficult to predict that as voters increasingly reject greens at the ballot box, we shall see more of this nonsense in the future.
![Cartoon-Temperature-Rising-600[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/cartoon-temperature-rising-6001.jpg?quality=83)
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The Telegraph reports:
“We need a drastic policy shift,” said Christoph Schmidt, chairman of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts. “They haven’t paid any attention to costs. These are now huge.”
The government has vowed to break dependence on fossil fuels and source 50pc of all electricity from wind, solar and other renewables by 2030, and 80pc by mid-century. But cost estimates have reached €1 trillion (£840bn) over the next 25 years.
German Industry In Revolt Against Green Energy Policies
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You genuinely have to be an idiot to think that Arctic sea ice is recovering
There are serious debates to be had about climate change, and what we should do about it. Whether or not the Arctic ice is retreating is not one of them.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tomchiversscience/100237031/you-genuinely-have-to-be-an-idiot-to-think-that-arctic-sea-ice-is-recovering/
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Meanwhile, over at Dr. Judith Curry’s place, Greg Goodman writes to tell me that he agrees with what I said in this video about Arctic Sea ice reaching a new equilibrium point. See the graph below.
Inter-decadal Variation in Northern Hemisphere sea ice
On the deceleration in the decline of the Arctic sea ice.
The variation in the magnitude of the annual cycle in arctic sea ice area has increased notably since the minimum of 2007. This means that using a unique annual cycle fitted to all the data leaves a strong residual (or “anomaly”) in post-2007 years. This makes it difficult or impossible to visualise how the data has evolved during that period. This leads to the need to develop an adaptive method to evaluate the typical annual cycle, in order to render the inter-annual variations more intelligible.
Figure 4. Showing Cryosphere Today anomaly derived with single seasonal cycle
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The rate of ice loss since 2007 is very close to that of the 1990s but is clearly less pronounced than it was from 1997 to 2007, a segment of the data which in itself shows a clear downward curvature, indicating accelerating ice loss.
Inter-decadal Variation in Northern Hemisphere sea ice
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Hi,
does someone know which persons belong to the German delagation?
Especially I’m interested whether Prof. Schellnhuber or Prof. Rahmstorf of the “Potsdam Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung” participates at that meeting with the IPCC scientists.
Thanks!
Hi,
does someone know which persons belong to the German delegation?
Especially I’m interested whether Prof. Schellnhuber or Prof. Rahmstorf of the “Potsdam Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung” participates at that meeting with the IPCC scientists.
Thanks!
According to predictions from several Russian meteorological services, Europe could see abnormally low temperatures this coming winter. It might even be the coldest winter in the last 100 years.
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Highlights:
•This winter will be extremely cold
•European countries will be the most affected
•Atlantic jet stream and low solar activity are the reasons
•Russia temperatures more likely to be within normal range
http://jurnalul.ro/stiri/observator/iarna-care-vine-va-fi-cea-mai-rece-din-ultimii-100-de-ani-experti-rusi-651891.html
Thanks to Alex Tanase for this link
The truth will ALWAYS come out sooner or later, in this case it was sooner. By decade end AGW theory will be gone.
My average solar parameter theory states if these solar parameters are attained folllowing several years of sub-solar activity in general the temperature trend is going to be down.Sub solar activity in general started in year 2005.
THEY ARE:
solar flux avg. sub 90.
solar wind spped avg. sub 350 km/sec.
ap index avg. sub 5.0 some spikes the other 1% of the time.
cosmic ray count per min. north of 6500.
e 10.7 flux avg. sub 100.
solar irradaince avg. off .015% or more.
This over a duration of time of 3 plus years.
Some Secondary effects
A more meridional atmospheric circulation due to ozone distribution changes in the stratosphere due to very low EUV light values. In turn a more meridional atmospheric circulation will result in more clouds, precip., and snow cover for the N.H. Colder temperatures ,increase in albedo.
Low solar wind will result in an increase in galactic cosmic rays (also have to take into account the strength of earth’s magnetic field, which when weak will compound solar effects) which will result in an increase in clouds ,lower temperatures.
Weak solar irradiance will result in weaker amounts of visible light penetrating the ocen surface ,result will be lower ocean heat content.
Low ap index with spikes will promote more volcanic activity as will an increase in galactic cosmic rays ,many studies have shown. Mr. Casey of the Space and Science Center has research in support of this.
An increase in volcanic activity if high latitude will contribute to warming the stratosphere in the higher latitudes resulting in a more meridional atmospheric circulation pattern, while at the same time cool the surface of the earth due to so2 particles reflecting incoming sunlight.
Some speculate that the cold phase of the PDO( more la ninas ,less el ninos) is tied into prolonged solar activity ,due to rotational changes in the earth ,due to an increase in gelogical activity.
That is my basic take, easily falsified if the solar parameters I said are reached and the climate does not show a decline in the temperature trend.
Like the stock market, a majority must always be wrong before a phase transition takes place. That’s what’s needed to keep the cycle going.
“Hungary worried the report would provide ammunition for deniers of man-made climate change”
I am truly ashamed of my country this time. Do we know who the butthead was exactly who has expressed his worries about adhering to reality?
We are not all going to die on a baked Earth.
This is good news to me.
Why is this not good news for everyone?
It represents “Deep concerns” for some.
Yea, some suicidal misanthropes
The deniers’ approach, says Schmidt is, “sling enough mud and hope something sticks. This seems to be a little sticky so this will be what they focus on.”
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It’s always amusing to see alarmists try to project their own pathetic failings onto skeptics. These are the same people who are on record over the years claiming that global warming causes warmer winters with less snow, colder winters with more snow, more hurricanes, fewer hurricanes, more rainfall, less rainfall, more desertification, more greening of the earth, less Arctic ice, more Antarctic ice, and global temperatures that mirror increases in CO2 except when the heat suddenly decides to play hide and seek in the deep oceans. Who are the ones that have been slinging mud and hoping something, anything will stick?
_Jim says:
September 20, 2013 at 7:26 am
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I also thought the photo looked altered, from my first glance at it. Either that or the workers were having a barbecue.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
September 20, 2013 at 10:47 am
From Greg Goodman on September 20, 2013 at 10:32 am:
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I am in the middle on this argument. I see your point about not imitating the actions of the warmists. Yet this Arctic minimum is different this year, in that the Arctic set a summer record for below average temps, which is the lowest seen in the 55 year record. That is out of the ordinary at least as much as the big melt of last year, caused by an unusual, powerful summer cyclone.
Att: Anthony, mods. (Now a trigger word to make sure and hit the spam bin: HAARP )
Strangest post (this same poster has actually had several like this) of the day …
.
[Nope, it didn’t hit the spam list. Only the “mod” list. 8<) Mod]
From Greg Goodman on September 20, 2013 at 8:47 am:
Honestly, sincerely, this is obfuscating crap. It’s the only description that fits. Really, from the first glance I saw something was wrong, and it keeps getting worse.
It immediately fails the most basic eyeball test. It says it shows Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area. Arctic sea ice area in 2012 bottomed out below three million square kilometers, close to two. I’ve verified this by the Cryosphere Today graphs, by the WUWT Sea Ice page. That’s absolute amounts, not anomalies.
Your Y-axis is showing about 8.25 million square kilometers at the bottom of 2012. Where did the extra six million square kilometers of solid sea ice area come from?
Your graph is supposed to be four distinct time ranges.
1. Pre-1988, which by the dataset you have indicated would be from the beginning of 1979 to the end of 1989.
2. 1988 to 1997, which by that red squiggly section runs to the end of 1997 (is inclusive).
3. 1997 to 2007, except the green squiggle runs from the start of 1998 to… I can’t tell, as it shows a drop and the next section keeps dropping, not what is seen at the end of the year.
4. Post-2007, except it shows the then-record-breaking 2007 drop to just before the 2013 melt season.
That’s screwed up enough. But then the obfuscation starts.
The starts and stops of the trend lines do not match that of the squiggly lines. Trend and squiggle of the first range both start at 1979, but then you pull a “hockey stick” trick by covering up the light blue trend line with the red squiggle, concealing the end of the “Pre-1988” trend line somewhere between 1990 and 1991. From there it gets more obvious.
You have overlaps, mismatches, your garbage whipped-up Y-axis that says it’s sea ice area but is supposed to be “short-term mean + annual anomalies”… Why even do that when the absolute values are available? Obvious answer, you’re trying to pull a fast one.
It’s an embarrassing thrown-together conglomeration that shows nothing, proves nothing, and certainly cannot show “…the rate of area loss is now HALF what is was during 1997 to 2007.”
Your graph gives UIUC as the dataset source. Cryosphere Today (UIUC) uses NSIDC info. Extent tracks area good enough to examine trends. So I went to WoodForTrees, graphed the NSIDC Northern Hemisphere monthly extent data with trends, using the ranges you said you had used except corrected to match your sreal squiggle ranges close as possible, full years only. Note that since the decimal value of the last month of the year is 0.92, I used 0.95 to catch December on the end of range and January at the start.
From start of a year to end of a year, ranges are 1979-1987, 1988-1997, 1998-2007, 2008-2012.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:1978.95/to:1987.95/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:1978.95/to:1987.95/trend/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:1987.95/to:1997.95/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:1987.95/to:1997.95/trend/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:1997.95/to:2007.95/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:1997.95/to:2007.95/trend/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:2007.95/to:2012.95/plot/nsidc-seaice-n/from:2007.95/to:2012.95/trend/
Rate of loss is clearly not now half.
The chart is garbage. It shows nothing worthwhile. It reeks of obfuscation, manipulation, I can hear the screams of each individual datum as you mangled it into the form that suited your fancy. I have been forced to call those lines “squiggles” as they clearly do not represent “data” as I know it.
This looks like the type of graph they would push on SkepSci, if they would lower their appearance standards.
And what is so great about half the loss rate? You start with a million dollars, three years later you only have $500,000. Three years after that, you’re down to $250,000. Each period you have lost 50%, but you would say it is great that you only lost half as many dollars a year!
Manipulation, obfuscation, deception… You open yourself up to ALL of those charges with this shoddy work. Do better!
That power plant photo looks like the Cholla power plant. Doesn’t matter – here’s what they look like in images not enhanced to improve the scare factor (scroll down as needed):
http://onespeedgo.blogspot.com/2011/01/another-side-of-arizona-with-little-nm.html
_Jim says (September 20, 2013 at 10:53 am): “Further examination of the ‘stack’ color shows better than 98% of the pixels possessing the same RGB value set; I’m thinking contrast was ‘enhanced’ on this photo…”
The photo is of Eggborough Power Station, near Selby, North Yorkshire, dated 10/01/07 (I assume the “01” means January), photo credit John Giles/PA.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/mar/28/uk-co2-emissions-up-2012
Anthony found evidence of photoshopping here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/25/photoshopping-in-the-worseness/
BTW, it’s interesting that the Telegraph used a photo of an English power station to illustrate a story about German power plants. Are there no “enhanced” photos of German power stations?
It looks like the NSIDC agrees with the post I made at September 20, 2013; 7:04 am. Both points I raised, in fact, that the minimum was reached on September 13th and that they hadn’t been paying close enough attention to the daily numbers.
Revisions coming to push the 2013 minimum below 2009.
“* According to near-real-time data, this year’s minimum extent is slightly lower than 2009. However, the ranking between 2009 and 2013 is close, and may change once the final version of the data are processed.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
New numbers presented in a table showing 2009 revised up to 5.13M km^2 from 5.05M km^2.
Tomorrow, Sunday, September 22nd, 2013, there will be elections for the German parliament.
Owing to a 30 percent-increase in costs of energy for private households due to the EEG – Erneuerbare Energien-Gesetz, “Renewable Energy Legislation” in German – over the past four years, which was introduced to pay huge subsidies for producers of “green” energy on the expense of average peoples’ money, the german Green Party “Bündnis 90/Die Grünen” is expected to lose a substantial share of votes tomorrow: From over 13,5 percent back in 2009 down to 8,5 percent tomorrow.
Rather neat picture of icebreaker, seen by “North Pole Camera.” See bottom of my “camera diary” at: http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2013/09/19/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-the-darkness-decends/
I haven’t been able to determine the name of the ship, or discover what it is doing up by our camera. Can anyone help me?
In the mean time, in the general spirit of acrimony that is permeating Climate Science, I have decided to start a completely false rumor: The ship was sent up there by Greenpeace to break up the ice around the North Pole Camera, so it would look like the ice was melting, but unfortunately it got stuck in the ice and couldn’t exit the view before the camera took the picture. Please send help.
There. Let’s hope that goes viral.
In actual fact the camera made it down to 83.669°N yesterday, but now is once again merrily drifting the wrong way, up past 83.770 the last I heard. If it gets north of 84 degrees again it will the eleventh time it has crossed that imaginary line since they first crossed 84 degrees bringing the camera up there last April. It seems to show the ice is not getting flushed out through Fram Strait in the usual manner.
Update: The blogger “Billy Liar” helped me find a ship with a similar silhouette: http://forsvaret.no/om-forsvaret/utstyrsfakta/sjo/Sider/Kystvaktens-fartoy-KV-Svalbard.aspx
That post I posted yesterday was strange. Apparently an advertisement in a foreign language was put in that article, which is ridiculous.
If I had noticed it, I would not have posted it Jim. That article came from iceagenow.com.
Nope, no conspiracies in sight anywhere! Move along now, nothing to see here. This is kind of a macro version of the Climategate emails, be it “scientists” or countries they will scheme, plot and strategize to get what they want. They are all criminals. Climate crooks and kooks. And some day Karma is gonna bite each of them right in their ass.
Right on Pieter. These crooks have been busy doing it using two different “bottoms” – the end of the Little Ice Age, and the end of the 1970’s cold period, whichever suits the argument du jour. But now they squeal like stuck pigs when we use a “top” of a trend.
This was a long time coming because when you keep trumpeting record highs, there comes an inevitable turning point in an oscillating system that every new data point will fall below that high for a long time. To really drive them mad we should just concentrate on their record highs and measure everything against them. The only defense they have is to keep adjusting past temps higher, which they are doing.
“The UN-IPCC “admission” of LESS warming is itself a LIE,” tweets London-based astrophysicist Piers Corbyn. “Without data fraud the World is COOLING NOT WARMING.”
http://iceagenow.info/2013/09/warmists-fiddling-data-years-astrophysicist/