New book on the IPCC coming:
A new book about the IPCC will be revealed soon by Donna Laframboise, the title is inspired by this statement from Dr. Judith Curry:
Does the problems with the IPCC mean that WG1 science is incorrect? Not necessarily, but I agree that a “new trial” is needed. WG2 and WG3 reports pretty much belong in the dustbin, as far as I can tell.”
More on the book later. In related news, a new paper in Nature Climate Change says IPCC uses statistical techniques ‘out of date by well over a decade’ http://bit.ly/1ab7iVZ
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Antarctic continues to set sea ice records:
September 4th (Day 247) saw the 39th Daily Record of the Year for Antarctic Sea Ice Extent.
Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is 19.16 million sq km.
If you add up the number of daily records, 2013 is a distant 3rd behind 2008 and 2010. However, if you also add in 2nd place finishes, 2013 slightly edges out 2010. And 118 days remain in the year.
http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/39th-daily-record-of-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice-extent/
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The warming, it’s all in the adjustments:
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/375808179914821632/photo/1
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Well worth a read:
Chris de Freitas responds to comments on his “ENSO drives the pause” paper with an addendum: http://wp.me/p7y4l-obN
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Satellite Data Shows a Very Active Tropical Atlantic, Gabrielle Weakens
Image Credit: NASA GOES Project
Tropical Storm Gabrielle has weakened to a depression by 11 a.m. EDT on Sept. 5, while three other low pressure areas struggle to develop in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured a panoramic view of all four systems while NASA’s Aqua satellite captured infrared data on Gabrielle and an adjacent low.
NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured a view of Gabrielle, an unnamed system east of it, and Systems 99L and 98L on Sept. 5 at 10:45 a.m. EDT. NOAA’s GOES-East satellite captured all four systems in a view across the entire Atlantic Ocean. The image was created by NASA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. More: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2013-09/su-gwh090413.php
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Actual man (or animal) made climate change?
Overgrazing turning parts of Mongolian Steppe into desert
Overgrazing by millions of sheep and goats is the primary cause of degraded land in the Mongolian Steppe, one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems in the world, researchers say in a new report. The degraded land holds implications both for local food production and global climate.
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Let’s hope it doesn’t involve a realtor and federal home loan programs:
Scientists at the Zoological Society of London have devised a novel method to identify suitable new homes for animals under threat from climate change.
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But they are totally convinced AGW is in there somewhere:
The Financial Times reports: UK Met Office admits: ‘No evidence we are seeing things that could not have happened without natural weather variability’
‘We don’t have evidence that we are seeing things that could not have happened without natural weather variability doing its stuff,’ said Peter Stott of the UK Met Office, one of the report’s editors. “But potentially climate change can in some cases add something on top.”
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Throwing out the Krudd with the dirty bathwater:
Warning Signs: Will Australians Vote to End the Carbon Tax?
Fifteen million registered voters in Australia will go to the polls and render their judgment on September 7. It is a vote that should be reported upon in the United States, but it more likely to be ignored or buried.
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What’s 100% among friends?
New paper finds climate model assumptions on cloud-aerosol interactions may be off by ± 100%
A paper published today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics demonstrates the huge uncertainties of computer modeling of aerosol–cloud interaction effects, which are one of the “major sources of uncertainty in climate models.” According to the authors, the standard deviation around the mean cloud condensation nuclei varies globally between a minimum of about ± 30% over some marine regions to ± 40–100% over most land areas and high latitudes. This is only one of the factors affecting clouds in climate models, and clouds are but one of the many major uncertainties in climate models.
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Geez guys, can you all quit posting so that I might be more inclined to keep my web site up to date? I last uploaded http://wermenh.com/rggiwatch/index.html in mid-update and haven’t gotten back to it for a month.
A new RGGI (Northeast US cap and trade plan for fossil fuel burning electrical power generators) auction just concluded. The title of the press release is egregious back-patting. How can the auctions not be a success? They don’t have to sell all the allowances, and haven’t. A recent plan to greatly reduce the allowances to auction well below their original goal has “succeeded” in getting the price above the legal reserve price and getting some speculators back in the market.
News Release
21st Auction Marks Five Years of Success for RGGI
CO[2] Allowances Sold at $2.67
News Release and Market Monitor Report Now Available at:
http://www.rggi.org/docs/Auctions/21/PR090613_Auction21.pdf
CONTACT: Jason Brown, (212) 417-3179, jason.brown@rggi.org
NEW YORK, NY— The nine Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), the nation’s first market-based regulatory program to reduce greenhouse gas pollution, today announced the results of their 21^st auction of carbon dioxide (CO[2]) allowances. The auction held Wednesday, September 4, 2013 marks five years since the launch of the RGGI auctions in 2008.
38,409,043 CO[2] allowances were sold at the auction at a clearing price of $2.67. Allowances sold represent 100 percent of the allowances offered for sale by the nine states. Bids for the CO[2] allowances ranged from $1.98 to $12.85 per allowance.
The auction generated $102.5 million for reinvestment by the RGGI states in a variety of consumer benefit initiatives, including energy efficiency, renewable energy, direct bill assistance, and greenhouse gas abatement programs. Cumulative proceeds from all RGGI CO[2] allowance auctions currently total $1.4 billion dollars.
According to the independent market monitor’s report, electricity generators and their corporate affiliates have won 84 percent of CO[2] allowances sold in RGGI auctions since 2008. Additional details are available in the Market Monitor Report for Auction 21, available at
http://www.rggi.org/docs/Auctions/21/Auction_21_Market_Monitor_Report.pdf.
“Having realized a more than 30 percent reduction in regional power sector carbon dioxide pollution, the RGGI states continue to operate one of the most cost-effective market-based carbon reduction programs in the world,” said Collin O’Mara, Secretary of the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control and Chair of the RGGI, Inc. Board of Directors. “States, regions, and countries are increasingly recognizing that RGGI’s system of auctioning allowances provides flexibility with market certainty. Coupled with the reinvestment of allowance proceeds in strategic energy programs, the result is a program that cost-effectively reduces carbon pollution while also supporting economic growth.”
“Today’s auction represents the 21st successful auction and five years of progress in the RGGI states building our clean energy economy – a growth economy that lowers carbon pollution, generates jobs, and lowers family and business energy bills.” said David Littell, a Commissioner of the Maine Public Utilities Commission and Vice-Chair of the RGGI, Inc. Board of Directors.
The next RGGI auction is scheduled for December 4, 2013. To receive announcements relating to future auctions and other RGGI news, please join the RGGI, Inc. mailing list at http://www.rggi.org/news/mailing_list.
Auction 21 Results At-A-Glance
Auction Date September 4, 2013
Allowances Offered for Sale 38,409,043
Allowances Sold 38,409,043
Ratio of Bids to Supply 2.0
Clearing Price $2.67
Reserve Price $1.98
Proceeds from Auction 21 $102,552,144.81
Total Cumulative Proceeds (All Auctions) $1,452,770,500.96
Number of Bidders in Auction 21 42
Percent of Allowances Purchased by Compliance Entities & their Corporate Affiliates in Auction 21 53%
nevket240 says:
September 6, 2013 at 3:42 am
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-09-05/ice-melting-faster-from-greenland-to-antarctica-seen-in-un-leak
More dross from those on the taxpayers teat.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ROTFLMAO!
Arctic temperatures have been lower than normal all summer:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Arctic Ice has recovered and is within 2 std dev of normal (95%)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
And as the above notice says “Antarctic continues to set sea ice records”
Talk about outright LIES!
It looks as if 2013 will nip out 2009 on minimum Arctic sea ice extent, which would mean this is the year with the highest minimum since 2006. Unless of course there are further “adjustments”. The minimum will also occur earlier than usual for this century.
Combined with record-breaking Antarctic sea ice, the death knell of CACA tolls again.
Expect to be told it’s just weather.
richardscourtney says: @ur momisugly September 6, 2013 at 6:18 am
… The ‘inner circle’ of climastrology have read the writing. And they understand it…. their call for a leaner IPCC is a call to lighten the sinking ship by throwing others overboard.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It is interesting that it is a meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) which was just featured here at WUWT
Time for AGU members to go visit Anthony in California?
I have a question about climate modeling and hind-casting. Look at this graph with the red line being a 58 model average and the black line being observed temperature data: http://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/AR4faq-8-1-figure-1-l.png
How do climate models capture past volcanic eruptions (and associated cooling) so accurately?
Gary Pearse says:
Gary, its a double negative and that means this sentence says they do have evidence that natural weather variablity is what they are seeing. They don’t have evidence that it is not natural variability. See? Its their way of double speak so everyone is confused.
In his addendum, de Freitas writes about ENSO driven fluctuations in global mean temp:
“I assume these are superimposed upon what seems for the moment to be the less potent CO2-caused warming, and likely other less potent mechanisms as well.”
Wrong. If the last 15 yrs of no warming is because the sun has gone quiet then the solar influence is STRONGER than consensus scientists have been assuming. Is de Freitas really oblivious that the solar shift is an ideal natural experiment for distinguishing the solar and co2 theories of late 20th century warming? This sentence almost like a deliberate attempt to cover up the solar implications of the lack of recent warming.
richardscourtney says: @ur momisugly September 6, 2013 at 6:18 am
The writing is on the wall for climastrologists….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A bit more on the sinking ship from Bloomberg Businessweek:
So yes, it looks like the money is moving….
Don’t expect any thing to be clearly written though. you have to read between the lines. A year ago 34 [USA] companies that were offered federal support from taxpayers are faltering — either having gone bankrupt or laying off workers or heading for bankruptcy. Now Forbes statesSolar Companies Continue to Go Bankrupt: It is not surprising that 2012 had the greatest number of companies fold with about 40 going out of business.
A listing by year shows the numbers
2009 & 2010 – ten
2011 – five
2012 – Thirty eight with an additional eight subject to Acquisition, fire sale, or restructuring
2013 – three with an additional seven subject to Acquisition, fire sale, or restructuring
In part this is similar to the computer company maturing market attrition but a heck of a lot faster.
Wait, that “Relocation” articles states:
WUWT? I was unaware that emperor penguin populations were in dangerous decline, let alone that this had unequivocally been attributed to “climate change”. Are penguins the new polar bear?
Looks like Bastardi’s got himself a bona fide hockey stick in that tweet.
Ric Werme says: @ur momisugly September 6, 2013 at 7:33 am
…A new RGGI…..
…… Allowances sold represent 100 percent of the allowances offered for sale by the nine states.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
So Who are the states following California’s lead?
Glad I already left the region. Should have turned off the lights when I did but looks like the politicians are going to do it for me.
Donna Laframboise says:
September 6, 2013 at 5:07 am
“Sorry for the confusion, but the title of my upcoming book – which is about Rajendra Pachauri’s abysmal leadership of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – comes from a quote from that gentleman himself:
IPCC studies only peer-review science. Let someone publish the data in a decent credible publication. I am sure IPCC would then accept it, otherwise we can just throw it into the dustbin.
source: http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2009-11-10/india/28069084_1_himalayan-glaciers-climate-change-global-temperatures-rise (see the very end)
Like so many of Pachauri’s pronouncements, these claims are utterly false. Approximately 30% of the sources cited by the past two IPCC climate assessments (2001 and 2007) were not peer-reviewed academic publications.
If 1/3 of the IPCC’s source material belongs in “the dustbin” according to its own chairman, the IPCC isn’t a reliable source of information. Let’s keep that in mind when it releases its new report later this month.”
I think you are missing the obvious unconscious admission that they “can” pick and choose from any source. He didn’t say “will” throw it into the dustbin, or that it all belongs in the dustbin.
@Village Idiot says:
September 6, 2013 at 4:05 am
—–
Thanks! My Danish is as atrocious as my Mandarin, so I can’t help. The cloud chamber shot is cool, I built one when I was about 11 years old, using a bit of uranium ore as a radiation source (doubt we can do that type of thing these days). I didn’t generate a lot of tracks, but the few I saw convinces me that Svensmark is on the money.
The emphasis upon sulfate ions forming sulfuric acid when interacting with CGR irks me a bit, as atmospheric chemistry is far more complex than that. I’m sure other compounds (probably anthropogenic, but not necessarily) contribute to the cloud formation process. I bet there is much to be discovered in Svensmark’s basic hypothesis. Cool article about atmospheric sampling (Kern County, California)
http://www.livescience.com/27111-air-pollution-monitoring.html
Support Australia (it’s election season) by watching 50:1’s Best:
Joanne Nova Interview (42:41)
David Evans Interview (47:51)
Glenn says: September 6, 2013 at 11:41 am
[re quote from which Donna Laframboise’s forthcoming book derives its title:]
While I do not disagree with your interpretation, it should be noted that precision in choice of words has never been Rajendra <shoot from the lip> Pachauri’s forté.
On a related note, it is amusing to recall the subsequent “evolution” of this particular Pachauri pomposity, as he miraculously moved grey/gray literature from his “dustbin” (Nov. 9, 2009) to “the media and other sections of society’s […] drains” (May 14, 2010). Please see:
Pachauri defends shoddy shades of gray
“The warming, it’s all in the adjustments:
http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/375808179914821632/photo/1 ”
From now on when I just lope off at least 0.4C from the temperatures this is part of the reason why, the other is a like chart of NOAA’s upward adjustments of a bit more than 0.4C and this doesn’t even include the UHIE missing downward adjustment of ’bout the same, let’s say -0.7C total of all is close. So when those from both the skeptical and warmist sides start speaking seriously of “the sensitivity of climate” as if it is a reality… I just have to laugh (though it’s a pity type of laugh).
Good catch Joe.
As far as Antarctic sea ice is concerned, the following data set gives slightly different figures, although the broad picture is similar
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.south.anom.1979-2008
Here, 2013 comes in only 5th, with 37 first places to date, behind
2008 (88)
2003 (54)
2010 (49)
2007 (42)
2008 had the greatest sea ice cover for almost the whole of March, April and May, but clearly peaked too early, and had a poor second half.
The average for the year to date puts 2013 in first place at 8.26 million sq. km, 122,000 ahead of second placed 2008, showing the value of a consistent performance.
Perhaps somebody can comment on the perceived accuracy of the two sets of data?
How are Oz’ elections going? Is it alright to look?
June 17, 2013 — NASA’s 2013 Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel or HS3 mission will investigate whether Saharan dust and its associated warm and dry air, known as the Saharan Air Layer or SAL, favors or suppresses the development of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. The effects of Saharan dust on tropical cyclones is a controversial area of science. During the 2012 campaign, NASA’s Global Hawk unmanned aircraft gathered valuable data on the dust layer that swirled around Tropical Storm Nadine for several days.
About time. Dust and aerosol research has been discouraged in order to maintain dust/aerosol cloud seeding as a magic control knob in the climate models to maintain a high CO2 forcing.
Saharan dust levels over the Atlantic do seem high this northern summer.
http://now.msn.com/saharan-dust-cloud-makes-way-from-africa-to-texas
Forgot the link for the NASA study.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130617130556.htm
It’s alright to look. (:
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/the_results/
The latest result listed on Bolt’s blog says:
Looks like a very warm August coming up on UAH. I’ve noticed an interesting pattern, the later the numbers are released, the more likely it is to be a warm month (or at least to have a big increase from the previous month). It looks the fifth of the month is the cutoff… if released earlier than that it’s a cool(er) month, if released after that, it’s a hot month. The past twelve months demonstrate this effect perfectly. In six of those months, the temperature data was released by Dr. Roy Spencer on or before the fourth of the month. In those months, the average temperature departure was +0.153C. In the other six months, however, the temperature data was released by Dr. Roy Spencer on or after the fifth of the month. In those months, the average temperature departure was +0.350C, or nearly a full +0.2C warmer.
With that said, I suspect August 2013 will finish between +0.20C and +0.50C, with a most likely value around +0.35C.
Am going down to the bookies to see if a can put a bet on this year been free of hurricanes.
lf l can then with good luck l can still get good odds. Because to me the risks of a hurricane forming this year are going down. When looking at the satellite view of the mid Atlantic.
Regarding hurricanes: It only takes one.