A perspective on the “unprecedented” strength of modern hurricanes
Guest essay by Donald R. Baucom
1935 Labor Day hurricane track. Uses the color scheme from the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Image: NOAA/NHC/Wikipedia
In 1948, Lauren Bacall and husband Humphrey Bogart made their fourth and last movie together. In “Key Largo,” Bogart played Frank McCloud, an Army veteran who had recently returned from World War II. Lauren Bacall was Nora Temple, the widow of a soldier who died while serving in McCloud’s unit in Italy. In addition to Bogart and Bacall, the film featured Edward G. Robinson as tough-guy, gangster Johnny Rocco and Lionel Barrymore as James Temple, an aged hotel owner who is Nora’s father-in-law.
After the war, McCloud came to visit the Temples to tell them of the bravery of James Temple’s son and inform them where he was buried. When McCloud arrived, he found that Rocco and his gang had taken over the hotel and were holding the Temples hostage.
As the story unfolds, a hurricane approaches the hotel and begins to build in intensity. Never having experienced such a storm, Rocco is noticeably disturbed and asks James Temple how bad the storm could be. Temple answers by describing a hurricane that had hit the area in 1935.
Rocco: Old man! How bad could it get? [Pause] I asked you a question. Do you hear me? How bad could it get?
Temple: Well, the worst storm we ever had was back in ’35. Wind whipped up a big wave and sent it busting right over Matecumbe Key. Eight hundred people were washed out to sea.
Rocco: How far away was that from here?
Temple: Two miles.
Perhaps in an effort to further shake Rocco, Temple exaggerated the number killed in the 1935 storm. He also lumped the two Matecumbe Keys together and placed them closer to Key Largo than they actually are (Key Largo is a little over twenty miles away from Upper Matecumbe Key, the closer of the two). Temple’s exaggeration of the number killed notwithstanding, the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 was a monster.
To begin with, the 1935 storm was the first category 5 hurricane to strike the U.S. and is still the most intense hurricane ever to hit the country. The atmospheric pressure associated with this storm dropped to 892 millibars, 17 millibars lower than the pressure for Camille, the second most intense storm, which hit the Gulf coast in 1969. (The lower the pressure, the greater the intensity of the storm.) By way of further comparison, the pressure for Hurricane Sandy, which struck the northeast in October 2012, was only 940 millibars.
Second, the Labor Day storm killed 485 people. Given growth and development in America’s coastal areas since 1935, the National Hurricane Center estimates that this storm would have killed 9,150 had it occurred in the twenty-first century. On the other hand, Sandy resulted in just over seventy deaths in the United States.
The bulk of those killed in Florida, 257, were military veterans who were living in make-shift government camps while they worked on projects for the Civilian Conservation Corps. There were seven of these camps in Florida at the time of the storm, but only the three in the upper keys were threatened by the hurricane. The story of the effort to rescue the veterans in the three imperiled camps is perhaps the most dramatic and tragic episode associated with the 1935 storm.
When officials realized the danger the storm posed, they sent a train from Miami to evacuate the threatened camps. Consisting of six coaches, two baggage cars, three box cars, and the locomotive and its tender, the rescue train was to proceed to the southwestern end of Lower Matacumbe Key where the southernmost endangered camp was located. After picking up the veterans at this camp, the train would return to the north, picking up veterans at the camps on Upper Matacumbe and Windley Keys.
In the event, on its outbound journey the train got no further south than the Islamorada train station on Upper Matacumbe Key. Here, the wind and a storm surge of eighteen feet swept all the cars off the track with the exception of the locomotive and its tender.
The huge locomotive itself weighed over 300,000 pounds to which the tender added an additional 200,000 pounds. The great mass of this locomotive system kept it from being swept from the tracks.
The failure of the rescue mission meant that the occupants of the veteran camps would be left to face the fury of the storm with totally inadequate shelter that often was nothing more than a tent. It was thus virtually inevitable that a large number of the veterans would perish in the storm.
Another measure of the power of the 1935 storm is its wind strength. To be classified as a category five storm, its winds had to exceed 155 miles per hour. One estimate indicated that the storm’s wind speed may have reached 200 miles per hour with gusts of even higher speeds. Such winds would and did produce effects normally only associated with the intense winds of a tornado. Sandy’s winds reached only 115 miles per hour.
While Sandy’s storm surge was less than 14 feet, that of the 1935 hurricane reached 18 feet when it washed across Upper Matecumbe Key as noted above.
We are often confused when reporters use cost figures to suggest that today’s storms are more powerful than those that occurred before the current debate over global warming. The level of damage produced by a hurricane tells us less about its intensity than where and when it strikes land. Coastal areas of the United States have undergone extensive development since 1935. Thus, more recent storms, even if weaker than earlier storms, can produce comparatively greater destruction.
Without adequate knowledge of past storms, it is easy for reporters to conclude that modern storms are of “unprecedented” strength and thus mislead their readers. In fact, the more one knows about the history of weather events the better one understands that very few if any are truly unprecedented. Indeed, where the weather is concerned, we would all do well to remember the biblical observation: there is nothing new under the sun.

![Labor_Day_hurricane_1935-09-04_weather_map[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/labor_day_hurricane_1935-09-04_weather_map1.gif)
Margaret (from Miami) says at August 29, 2013 at 4:09 pm
Very good pooint.
We are not comparing apples with apples.
But for me the take argument is:
1) The impact of a hurricane is determined more by where it hits than how powerful it is.
2) AGW is not required for powerful hurricanes anyway (as they have always existed) regardless of how powerful they are now.
3) Therefore adaption at the vulnerable areas (e.g. flood defences) is a better policy than attempting prevention by CO2 emission reduction – as that won’t work.
http://jayssouth.com/florida/1935hurricane/
“Most structures in the Keys were obliterated”
I am still trying to work out how Hurricane Frances in 2004 gets into the Top 30 most damaging hurricanes.
I was there at the time.
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/03/21/was-hurricane-frances-really-so-costly/
This story reminds me of a comparison between Sandy and the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962. Although the Ash Wednesday storm struck over a larger area the Sandy and caused more flooding and damage but you never hear it mentioned. As I child we use to summer at Long Beach Island, N.J. which the eye of Sandy hit but the destruction from the Ash Wednesday storm was greater. And this was a Nor’easter not a hurricane.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962
An unusual history of the Labor Day Storm (audio only until 7:26)
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/marks/seminars/Miami_AMS_20100519.wmv
Much of hurricane history has been forgotten.
Margaret (from Miami) says at August 29, 2013 at 4:09 pm
Betsy was the first hurricane seen by satellite technology…in 1965.
————————————–
Actually the first tropical cyclone captured by satellite was an unnamed SH storm near New Zealand in 1960 by TIROS I. The first Atlantic hurricane photographed from space was Hurricane Anna (1961).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Anna_(1961)
————————————————————————–
JamesS says:
August 29, 2013 at 10:48 pm
Another great hurricane movie is 1937′s “The Hurricane,” directed by John Ford and starring Dorothy Lamour, Mary Astor, John Carradine, and Raymond Massey. It tells the story of a lovely, prosperous South Pacific island, whose favorite son is unjustly imprisoned for brawling. The eponymous storm arrives just as the young man has escaped and returned to his island, where he helps many survive the storm, which turns the beautiful island into nothing more than a sand spit with a ruined church foundation.
Fictional, yes, but the special effects of the storm laying waste to the island won an Academy Award, and the moment where the storm surge completely inundates the island is unforgettable.
———————————————————–
A great film with better special effects than “Key Largo” but the Nordoff and Hall novel upon which the film was based was actually based on a real typhoon in French Polynesia in 1916. There was really a Father Paul who died in that storm.
As I said before, much hurricane history has been forgotten.
Having lived in South Louisiana near the Mississippi River delta for over 30 years, I remember when storms like Betsy, Camille, Audrey, Hilda, were accepted as dangerous but exciting events to be dealt with in the normal course of life in Southeastern coastal life. Living in South Carolina since then, I have seen the demolition along the South Carolina coast from Hugo and other storms. Buildings just disappeared and forests were leveled in tornadoes, trees were uprooted, and coastal towns flooded by storm surges of 15-20-25 even 30 feet (Camille) on the Mississippi Coast, and we endured power and water outages. If I remember correctly, Irene was a really big cat-1 when it hit N.C, but when it actually came ashore in NY-NJ it was not even hurricane force, with a 5-6 foot storm surge.
Not to diminish the tragedy of lives lost, but back then in Louisiana, we just put up with it, picked ourselves up, helped out unlucky neighbors, and went on with our lives, with great hurricane stories to tell later. The costs associated with hurricanes will always go up with inflation, coastal development, and affluence, so comparing dollar costs is not very relevent. Anyone can do the research and learn about the real disastrous U.S. hurricanes over the past century and see that there is no significant predictable difference in frequency or severity.
It turns my stomach to see people begging the government to bail out every natural difficulty (“disaster”) that arises. Just this week, our governor annouced that the federal government has designated the entire state of South Carolina a disaster area because it has rained a lot this year.
Txomin said, “Natural catastrophes are reported in terms of commercial and political interests. Facts are simply at the service of these goals.”
Perfect! Your comment goes straight to the heart of the matter. I admire people, such as you, who have the ability to concisely express the essence of a matter or situation. Of course, this ability precludes your participation in either politics or journalism. 😉
Mumble McGuirk says: Actually the first tropical cyclone captured by satellite was an unnamed SH storm near New Zealand in 1960 by TIROS I. The first Atlantic hurricane photographed from space was Hurricane Anna (1961).
Yay! New information is fun!!! Thank you.
To JamesS:
I was unaware that anyone had made the Nordhoff & Hall novel The Hurricane
into a movie. Thanks for that piece of information!
and thanks also to Mumble McGuirk for pointing out that
the novel was based on a real typhoon.
M Courtney, I agree that CO2 reduction is pointless, but we can also go overboard on flood defenses.
My neighborhood has had a number of strikes over the years but hasn’t had severe flooding since 1926. Do we really need to spend money for every building to survive a Cat 5 when most of them will be torn down and replaced long before the next significant storm? And, all the people are supposed to evacuate anyway so whose life is it saving? Then, when those expensive cat 5 homes get smashed anyway, we’ll have immense financial losses that were exaggerated by all these prescriptions meant to reduce them.
Separately, there’s a little house near me that was built of coral rock almost a hundred years ago. It survived the major storm surge in 1926. It survived all the other hurricanes intact since. What is finally killing it? The city noticed that it was “built of coral” and demanded all this crazy structural re-engineering to make it hurricane-safe. There is another element about corruption in the code department, but in the end all that is left now is the shell, sitting there waiting to get knocked over by a minor storm. A false sense of security is way worse than a true sense of danger.
What I remember the best about any of the hurricanes of the last 60 years was Huraldo being rolled across the sea wall at Galveston during the beginning of Ike.
SSparks says:
August 30, 2013 at 12:52 pm
What I remember the best about any of the hurricanes of the last 60 years was Huraldo being rolled across the sea wall at Galveston during the beginning of Ike.
standing up and taking on the full force of a hurricane has been a TV tradition ever since Dan Rather got his gig at CBS national after showing how brave he was during Carla for the local station. But as always the Left leaves out the fact that he was standing on a 20 high seawall in Galveston while Carla was down around Port Aransas over a 100 miles away. (but just to show how much fun that storm was — my high school, about 30 miles NW of Houston ( 50 miles from Galveston) lost its anemometer at 135 MPH. Long distance away but still windy!)
Margaret (from Miami) says:
August 30, 2013 at 11:04 am
I could be wrong, but IMO Mr. Courtney refers to flood defenses such as gates & barriers, rather than structural codes in potential target cities. NYC could have been protected for less than the cost of Sandy’s damage alone. Supposed environmental concerns, not cost, have kept NY & NJ from enjoying the same level of defense as Providence, RI, which wisely protected itself with the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier in 1960-66 after devastating storms in 1938 (Great New England Hurricane) & 1954 (Hurricane Carol).
========================================================================
Add inflation to increased development. In the ’30’s one ounce of gold was worth $20 dollars. A $20 dollar gold piece was not a collectible, it was currency.
Actually Comrade Frank had made gold illegal to own by 1933:
“Executive Order 6102 is an executive order signed on April 5, 1933, by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt “forbidding the Hoarding of gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates within the continental United States”. The order criminalized the possession of monetary gold by any individual, partnership, association or corporation.”
BK
Heck, today a $20.00 dollar gold piece BETTER be more collectible!
That small a coin would not be collectible amidst the fuzz in the bottom of your pocket.
Some Labor Day Videos for you #(:))
1900 Galveston, TX (Sept. 5, 1994)
“The worst natural disaster ever to strike this country… .”
(CAGW Thought Police hadn’t taken over the MSM, yet)
How in the WORLD, given all those children and the thousands of others who died, can the CAGW Gang today brazenly say, “The worst hurricanes all happened in THIS century.”
1935 Key Largo (2011)
(starting at 00:46)
1938 New England (newsreel c. 1939)
Dear Jon (re: 18/29, 11:31pm),
I waited until nearly 24 hours after your post to spare you the embarrassment, but, NOW I CAN’T RESIST, lol.
“… there are no signs of any old city or civilization, from before 14th century, along the USA East coast or in the USA side of the Gulf could be for a reason… .” (you)
Ahem.
Perhaps, it was because Leif Ericson’s people were stopped at the Canadian border by the U.S. Border Patrol for trying to bring home smoked herring into the U.S..
And, then, that ridiculous mother of Christopher Columbus waited until she was 250 before she had any kids, so that blew the trip to America scheduled for 1291.
The Pilgrims would have been here a lot sooner, if old Guttenberg had just gotten that printing press into production on time (Local 341 of the Scriveners Guild kept burning down his factory) …. .
Jon? Was that a typo? #(:))
Sincerely,
Janice
Jon – re: 8/29 (serves me right!)
As Margret (from Miami) says the 1926 hurricane was big one too. My father, who was born in South Florida in 1905 and lived all his 85 years in south and central Florida, always said the worst hurricane he had ever been in was the 1926 hurricane. He claims to have seen a broom straw driven my the wind into a coconut palm trunk like an arrow.
So, no, storms today are not “unprecedented.” We have just built more structures and have more people in the path of the storms. Cherry picking is ignoring past data. This post was a great reminder of that past data.