A new understanding of the solar dynamo published

Our resident solar expert, Dr. Leif Svalgaard, sends word of this new discovery.

Stanford solar scientists solve one of the sun’s mysteries

The sun’s magnetic field can play havoc with communications technology. Stanford scientists have now described one of the underlying processes that help form the magnetic field, which could help scientists predict its behavior.

By Bjorn Carey

NASA SDO/HMI
The sun’s double-cell meridional circulation structure is shown as streamlines in this diagram based on research at Stanford’s Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory.

Stanford solar scientists have solved one of the few remaining fundamental mysteries of how the sun works.  

The mechanism, known as meridional flow, works something like a conveyor belt. Magnetic plasma migrates north to south on the sun’s surface, from the equator to the poles, and then cycles into the sun’s interior on its way back to the equator.

The rate and depth beneath the surface of the sun at which this process occurs is critical for predicting the sun’s magnetic and flare activity, but has remained largely unknown until now.

The solar scientists used the Stanford-operated Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) – an instrument onboard NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observatory satellite – to track solar waves in much the way seismologists would study seismic movements beneath the surface of the Earth. Every 45 seconds for the past two years, the HMI’s Doppler radar snapped images of plasma waves moving across the sun’s surface.

By identifying patterns of sets of waves, the scientists could recognize how the solar materials move from the sun’s equator toward the poles, and how they return to the equator through the sun’s interior.

“Once we understood how long it takes the wave to pass across the exterior, we determined how fast it moves inside, and thus how deep it goes,” said Junwei Zhao, a senior research scientist at the Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory at Stanford, and lead author on the paper.

Although solar physicists have long hypothesized such a mechanism, at least in general terms, the new observations redefine solar currents in a few ways. First, the returning currents occur 100,000 kilometers below the surface of the sun, roughly half as deep as suspected. As such, solar materials pass through the interior and return to the equator more quickly than hypothesized.

More startling, Zhao said, is that the equator-ward flow is actually sandwiched between two “layers” of pole-ward currents, a more complicated mechanism than previously thought, and one that could help refine predictions of the sun’s activity.

“Considered together, this means that our previously held beliefs about the solar cycle are not totally accurate, and that we may need to make accommodations,” Zhao said.

For example, some computer models projected that the current solar cycle would be strong, but observations have since showed it is actually much weaker than the previous cycle. This inconsistency could be due to the previously unknown inaccuracies of the meridional circulation mechanism used in the simulations.

Improving the accuracy of simulations, Zhao said, will produce a better picture of fluctuations of the sun’s magnetic field, which can interfere with satellites and communications technology on Earth. The sun’s magnetic field resets every 11 years – the next reset will occur sometime in the next few months – and there is evidence that changes in the meridional flow can influence how the magnetic field evolves during a particular cycle.

“We want to continue monitoring variations of the meridional flow,” he said, “so that we can better predict the next solar cycle, when it will come and how active it will be.”

The report was published in the online edition of The Astrophysical Journal Letters. It was co-authored by three other researchers at the Hansen Experimental Physics Laboratory – senior scientists Rick Bogart and Alexander Kosovichev and research associate Thomas Hartlep – as well as NASA senior scientist Tom Duvall. Phil Scherrer, a professor of physics at Stanford, is the principal investigator of the HMI project and supervised the study.

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Leif adds an excerpt from the paper in an email:

Meridional flow inside the Sun plays an important role in redistributing rotational angular momentum and transporting magnetic flux, and is crucial to our understanding of the strength and duration of sunspot cycles according to flux-transport dynamo theories. At the Sun’s surface and in its shallow interior to at least 30 Mm in depth, the meridional flow is predominantly poleward with a peak speed of approximately 20 m/s.

The poleward plasma flow transports the surface magnetic flux from low latitudes to the polar region, causing the periodic reversals of the global magnetic field, a process important to the prediction of the solar cycles. The speed and variability of the meridional flow also play an important role in determining the strength and duration of the solar cycles, and the unusually long activity minimum at the end of Solar Cycle 23 during 2007–2010 was thought to be associated with an increase of the meridional flow speed during the declining phase of the previous cycle. Therefore, an accurate determination of the meridional flow profile is crucial to our understanding and prediction of solar magnetic activities.

Although the poleward meridional flow at the solar surface and in shallow depths has been well studied, the depth and speed profile of the equatorward return flow, which is expected to exist inside the solar convection zone to meet the mass conservation, largely remains a puzzle. It is generally assumed that the return flow is located near the base of the convection zone, although no convincing evidence had been reported. 

The continuous Doppler observations by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the recently launched Solar Dynamics Observatory mission (SDO) allow us to measure and detect the long-sought equatorward flow. Our analysis, which takes into account the systematic center-to-limb effect that was recently found in the local helioseismology analysis techniques, gives a two-dimensional cross-section picture of the meridional flow inside the nearly entire solar convection zone, and reveals a double-cell circulation with the equatorward flow located near the middle of the convection zone.

Figure 1 shows the new picture suggested by the HMI data.

solar_meridontal_fig1

This new picture of the solar interior meridional circulation differs substantially from the previously widely believed picture of a single-cell circulation with the equatorward flow near the bottom of the convection zone [the Conveyor Belt Model]. Through removing a systematic center-to-limb effect that was only recently identified, our analysis corrects and improves the previous solar interior meridional flow profile given by Giles (1999) using a similar analysis procedure.

The new meridional circulation profile poses a challenge to the flux-transport dynamo models, but provides more physical constraints to these models creating a new opportunity to further understand how magnetic field is generated and how magnetic flux is transported inside the Sun. Past dynamo simulations have already demonstrated that a meridional circulation profile with multiple cells might not be able to reproduce the butterfly diagram and the phase relationship between the toroidal and poloidal fields as observed, unless the dynamo model was reconsidered. However, on the other hand, solar convection simulations have shown the possibility of multi-cell circulation with a shallow equatorward flow (e.g.,Miesch et al. 2006; Guerrero et al. 2013), demonstrating that our analysis results are reasonable.

Moreover, a recent dynamo simulation, with the double-cell meridional circulation profile incorporated, showed that the solar magnetic properties could be robustly reproduced after taking into consideration of turbulent pumping, turbulent diffusivity, and other factors (Pipin & Kosovichev 2013). All these studies, together with our observational results, suggest a rethinking of how the solar magnetic flux is generated and transported inside the Sun.

Abstract: http://iopscience.iop.org/2041-8205/774/2/L29

pdf here: http://www.leif.org/EOS/ApJL-2013-Meridional-Flow.pdf

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rgbatduke
August 29, 2013 11:09 am

So ballpark, the surface flow is 20m/sec, so the time to transport a parcel from equator to a pole is roughly (R \pi/2)/20 = 1.75 years, give or take a hair? Or rather less time (perhaps a year or even less), since the surface flow must either accelerate or the thickness of the northbound surface layer must increase due to conservation of mass plus the Jacobean, or does it remain uniform (meaning that there is continuous subduction occurring as it moves north, which has a major impact on where the defect line would be where there is no bulk transport in the center of the outer roll?
The movie above (with only a cross-section shown) doesn’t show the compression of flow streamlines that has to occur as one moves towards the poles. Surely this creates some sort of instability. I would not claim this is the cause of the butterflies, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some visible sign of a turbulent instability as the plasma is effectively compressed as it flows north.
rgb

August 29, 2013 11:18 am

RHL says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:09 am
The term “Doppler radar” is used incorrectly, I suspect.
Every analogy is halting at some point. What we observe is that the solar surface ‘bobs up and down’ [because of waves in the material]. So patches of the solar surface is coming toward us [and is blue-shifted] and other patches are moving away from us [and is red-shifted]. The Doppler map shows where the blue-shifted and red-shifted patches are. Analysis of the pattern allows us to say something about the solar interior [just like seismic waves from earthquakes – or artificial explosions – do], so the ‘Doppler’ designated is very appropriate.

Jim G
August 29, 2013 11:19 am

Leif Svalgaard says:
“Both. A theory, in science, is not just some hand waving: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory
I was merely asking you to clarify your comment, the condescension was unneccesary.
FYI:
con·de·scen·sion
/ˌkändəˈsenCHən/
noun
noun: condescension; plural noun: condescensions1. an attitude of patronizing superiority; disdain.
“a tone of condescension”

August 29, 2013 11:22 am

Jim G says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:19 am
I was merely asking you to clarify your comment, the condescension was unnecessary.
Perhaps you could appreciate that my comment about ‘theory’ has applicability to other people’s use of the term [.e.g a certain Dr. L].

Bill Illis
August 29, 2013 11:26 am

I always thought it was extremely interesting that it takes 250,000 years for energy generated in the core to reach the surface of the Sun. Obviously there is a lot of molecules under tremendous pressure to migrate through but a similar process must also work on Earth. How long does it take for energy received from the Sun to migrate its way through all those land, water and atmospheric molecules back out to space.

rgbatduke
August 29, 2013 11:32 am

The movie above (with only a cross-section shown) doesn’t show the compression of flow streamlines that has to occur as one moves towards the poles. Surely this creates some sort of instability. I would not claim this is the cause of the butterflies, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there were some visible sign of a turbulent instability as the plasma is effectively compressed as it flows north.
Hmmm, a second source of instability occurred to me. Northbound currents “should” be deflected spinward by Coriolis forces, should they not? Southbound currents “should” be deflected antispinwards. There are no continental boundaries so shouldn’t the entire flow pattern be surface-skewed, accelerating, to the right, spiral around at the poles before “going down the drain” there, and come back, depth skewed towards the left, so that the northbound and southbound expresses cross at some angle across the defect plane. There’s a source of serious turbulence right there, especially when one has to factor in magnetohydrodynamics and this motion occurs in a magnetic field.
rgb

August 29, 2013 11:33 am

Bill Illis says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:26 am
I always thought it was extremely interesting that it takes 250,000 years for energy generated in the core to reach the surface of the Sun. Obviously there is a lot of molecules under tremendous pressure to migrate through but a similar process must also work on Earth.
Strictly speaking it is not the molecules that migrate [as the interior out to 0.7 of the radius is convectively stable – i.e. does not move in the radial direction – like the Earth’s stratosphere]. The energy is carried by photons, that are constantly absorbed and new ones emitted [some of them back in the direction of the center]. This ‘diffusion’ of photons [energy] is very slow, hence the long time to reach the outer layers.
How long does it take for energy received from the Sun to migrate its way through all those land, water and atmospheric molecules back out to space.
For some it is immediately, for others [e,g, if it reaches the deep ocean of great depth on land] it can take thousands of years.

TomRude
August 29, 2013 11:35 am

“This new picture of the solar interior meridional circulation differs substantially from the previously widely believed picture of a single-cell circulation with the equatorward flow near the bottom of the convection zone [the Conveyor Belt Model].”
Indeed, very interesting… One wishes many including the good doctor were as willing to correct their antiquated vision of Earth atmospheric circulation…

Galvanize
August 29, 2013 11:36 am

Are they in a position to hind cast and see, by how much, plugging in this new data improves the projections for the current solar cycle?

Admad
August 29, 2013 11:36 am

If the text “… some computer models projected…, but observations have since showed it is actually….” were to be applied in climatology, what do you reckon the reaction would be? D-words, anybody?

August 29, 2013 11:37 am

rgbatduke says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:32 am
There are no continental boundaries so shouldn’t the entire flow pattern be surface-skewed, accelerating, to the right, spiral around at the poles before “going down the drain” there…
It does, see e.g. the spiral at the lower right on slide 22 of http://www.leif.org/research/Asymmetric-Solar-Polar-Field-Reversals-talk.pdf

August 29, 2013 11:39 am

The solar predictions have been almost as bad as AGW theory.

Magicjava
August 29, 2013 11:41 am

Dr Svalgaard, I have am looking for papers regarding plasma recombination. I am wondering what the sun and other stars would look like if their power came solely from recombination. I’m not saying that’s how stars work, just wondering what a model of a star would look like using recombination rather than fusion as its power source.
Any links you could provide to profession-grade work on plasma recombination would be appreciated. My undergrad textbook has nothing on the subject.

August 29, 2013 11:42 am

Many think it is the angular mometum exerted by the planets. Count me in on this theory, and out on this latest study.

August 29, 2013 11:50 am

Galvanize says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:36 am
Are they in a position to hind cast and see, by how much, plugging in this new data improves the projections for the current solar cycle?
I don’t think it improves the projections for the current cycle, but our improved understanding might help for the next cycle.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:39 am
The solar predictions have been almost as bad as AGW theory.
The solar prediction is actually quite good, http://www.leif.org/research/Cycle%2024%20Smallest%20100%20years.pdf and slides 20-21 of http://www.leif.org/research/On-Becoming-a-Scientist.pdf or if you can show it: http://www.leif.org/research/On-Becoming-a-Scientist.ppt
Salvatore Del Prete says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:42 am
Many think it is the angular mometum exerted by the planets. Count me in on this theory, and out on this latest study.
Never let observations interfere with your beliefs, it seems…
“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing had happened.” (Winston Churchill)

Jurgen
August 29, 2013 11:51 am

The use of models compares to the use of reasoning. Neither models nor reasoning are intrinsically good or bad. Their quality and relevance comes from their constructive properties and congruity with real phenomena.

August 29, 2013 11:58 am

Thanks for the contribution Dr. Svalgaard. Fascinating as usual. I had many question, but others appear to be asking them for me. I appreciate the answers.

Stephen Richards
August 29, 2013 11:59 am

Steven Mosher says:
August 29, 2013 at 10:54 am
For the fisrt time in several years I TOTALLY agree with Mosher. STOP IT.

August 29, 2013 11:59 am

@Bart
Don’t let these so called professionals here intimidate you! Just keepfollowing your own results.
My data suggests that the two binomials (we are talking about the sun’s field strengths), if we were to take it backwards in time, must come to dead end stop somewhere in 1972 and then the 22/23 years before that time (1 HN solar cycle) must be similar / more or less mirror the 22/23 years after that date (1972)
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
I determined:
average annual SSN 1950-1972
76
Average annual SSN 1972-1995
74
the two periods are mirroring as expected –
In terms of my data, one would expect the data for SSN from 1995-2016 to be similar to that of the period 1927-1950 (data for SSN before 1927 is murky/incorrect/inaccurate/used different formula/etc)
Average annual SSN 1927-1950
63
Looks to me I am on the way of being proved right, again.

Theo Goodwin
August 29, 2013 11:59 am

What a pleasure it is to see real science. Congratulations to Dr. Svalgaard and his colleagues.

Stephen Richards
August 29, 2013 12:00 pm

Thanks Leif for always being here when your subject arises

August 29, 2013 12:06 pm

I want to see solar predictions going forward from these people and then we will see how much or little of an understanding they have about the solar dynamo.
Back up this study with precise predictions. Not one prediction.
Leif made predictions on solar flux and ap index going out to year 2015 which I appreciate. They(STANFORD SOLAR SCIENTIST ) need to do the same.

August 29, 2013 12:08 pm

HENRY, your studies are as valid as their study.

August 29, 2013 12:11 pm

There were may solar scientist who thought Solar Cycle 24 was going to be very active,
Now that its half over and significantly lower than what was projected 10 years ago I find it difficult to understand how you Dr, Svalgaard can still defend that position, You personally may not have predicted an active cycle 24 but many other solar scientists did.

August 29, 2013 12:11 pm

Magicjava says:
August 29, 2013 at 11:41 am
Any links you could provide to profession-grade work on plasma recombination would be appreciated. My undergrad textbook has nothing on the subject.
I have no idea what you mean by ‘plasma recombination’ in this context. The Sun is so hot that plasma is generated spontaneous and continuously as the kinetic energy of the moving atoms are much larger than the binding energy of the electrons around the nucleus. Furthermore, the fusion process produces neutrinos. we can calculate how many and of which energy and the observations show good correspondence with the calculations, so we are quite certain that fusion is what powers the Sun.

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