Remember these stories?
and
Follow up: the bogus ‘North Pole becomes a lake’ story
There was a lot of worry about ‘open water’ at the North Pole which turned out to be camera drift. WUWT reader “jimbo” just found this story of open water ‘near’ the North Pole reported in 2000. The second link contains a correction but not about the main claim.
New York Times – August 29, 2000
Open Water at Pole Is Not Surprising, Experts Say
…..Dr. Serreze said an examination of satellite images from July 15 showed what looked like a large body of ice-free water about 10 miles long and 3 miles wide near the pole……
“The fact of having no ice at the pole is not so stunning,” said Dr. Claire L. Parkinson, a climatologist at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. “But the report said the ship encountered an unusual amount of open water all the way up. That is reason for concern.”
http://www.nytimes.com/learning/teachers/featured_articles/20000829tuesday.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/20/weekinreview/august-13-19-it-s-melting.html
and…
Published on Monday, September 4, 2000
Climate Change Has The World Skating On Thin Ice
by Lester R. Brown
If any explorers had been hiking to the North Pole this summer, they would have had to swim the last few miles. The discovery of open water at the Pole by an ice-breaker cruise ship in mid August surprised many in the scientific community.
It seems that history repeated itself.
Probably all the ice was picked up for Gore’s yacht to provide for his mixed drinks… well, he does have many parties you know…
It’s my pleasure Anthony. Do you want some more?
And the correction in the New York Times says:
And it looks like they are correct. There are other references for an ice free North Pole before 1970 but I want the best.
Nothing to see here folks, move along as usual.
Exactly why is that “reason for concern.”? Are we that short of things to worry about?
Was there actually an ice free North Pole in 1926? I don’t know but please CLICK HERE and assess whether it was possible. (peer reviewed stuff regarding a huge warming of the Arctic in the 1920s and 1930s with 1 report).
Like I said before whenever I see Warmist claims I instinctively look to the past and present. That’s how you catch them out. Use Google Scholar and Google News Archives. By the way isn’t Al Gore on their board? It must be the Gore Effect. 🙂
I’m color-blind but there appears to be more sea-ice today than in 2007? Is there a better picture showing max extent on record vs. minimum? 2007http://home.comcast.net/~ewerme/wuwt/cryo_compare.jpg
Here is a true image of the North Pole in summer 2013: http://imageshack.us/a/img843/640/ussskateen2013a.jpg
Enough disinformation by skeptics…/sarc
Obviously, this has drifted away from the pole, but is still at a very high latitude.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/18.jpg
Getting iced over so we may not see too many more images. Also, the sunset looms.
Whatever happens in the remaining few weeks, the Arctic sea ice is going to up around 40% from last year. Yes, you read that right, 40%.
The Cryosphere Today has the sea ice area up 43% right now from the same date last year.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom.1979-2008
The September sea ice extent is coming in at about 45% higher than last year.
http://s17.postimg.org/ft50m8x8f/NSIDC_Sept_Min_Proj_Aug21_2013.png
And the NSIDC did a similar graph to the one I have been doing for the last month above, in their most recent August 18th Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis release. One can do the math and get the same ~40% number.
http://s15.postimg.org/v99kkxz7v/NSIDC_Figure55.png
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
This, is not “usual” open water at the pole. Green circle, ~5km diameter.
http://m.imgur.com/UL0t7ea
In regard to the rowers, it looks like they will be quiting fairly soon. http://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/long-haul/northwest-passage-diary-we-needed-mother-nature-to-help-she-hasn-t-1.1501355
Thanks Jimbo for this, and all the links you provide. I imagine AW, and the vast majority of readers, similarly appreciate your efforts.
@tjfolkerts – I think you have an excellent contrast in those images. All ice extents are not created equal. We may not have a new extent record, but could still possibly see a further decline in total volume. Aside from a narrow band along the Canadian arctic archipelago, the Lincoln sea and north Greenland, there is virtually no ice more than two years old. The quality of the pack is greatly diminished, if over a wide area. Most of what remains is well under two meters in thickness, if not under one. I recommend looking here…
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013234.terra.1km
… To browse satellite imagery and here…
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/daybefore/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
…To see some fairly good estimates of arctic ice concentration. Do note the highly visible and anomalous hole in the pack north of 80 on the Siberian side, with the potential for a second offset towards this Chukchi Sea.
These are not generated from models.
Wu says:
August 22, 2013 at 3:15 pm
Wayne I thought about that too. I mean all that traffic must have at least some effect…. right? Anyone? I think I’ll shut up now.
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Slicing off an Manhattan (or larger) size of ice should have no different effect as ice shelfs breaking off glaciers.
Though the latter is much more rare und the former gets no attention by anyone.
Wind may then push the ice mass to lower latitudes or out of Fram Strait where it eventually melts.
Jdallen says:
August 22, 2013 at 6:38 pm
And, to paraphrase a recent Secretary of Mistake (er, State) in her testimony to Congress, “What difference does it make?”
SO, what do you fear about any particular loss of arctic Sea Ice from today’s levels? Or – phrased differently – what do you think the impact of losing Arctic Sea Ice from today’s levels be on the world’s heat balance?
Oh. Based on today’s real world trends not your fears or projections about what “might happen” in the Arctic, how many years from now will do you predict Cape Horn and Straits of Magellan will be blocked by Antarctic Sea Ice?
8?
10?
12?
Jdallen;
We may not have a new extent record, but could still possibly see a further decline in total volume.
>>>>>>>>>>
Why is it that warmists cheer every bit of news regarding declining ice? Since their claim is that this presages the end of the world, you’d think they’d express relief when it is absent, or at least hope that it continues to be absent, instead of twisting every observation to agree with their prophecies of doom.
They don’t just predict disaster, they embrace it.
Tom Moran says:
August 22, 2013 at 4:57 pm
This is the third cite of this URL in this post. Not bad for something that exists mainly because WordPress doesn’t do FTP. (It’s a travesty – I wrote one of the first FTP clients in 1972.) That image comes from http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh
If you go there, you can select a couple dates of your choice and get the pair of images. In Firefox and some other browsers you can right click on the image, select “View image” and get the fullsized image. I can’t help with the color and resolution, but at least Cryosphere can offer more images.
@Manfred et. al. – the effect of shipping on the ice, even the huge Russian Ice breakers, is trivial. While it may temporarily create leads and do some modest fracturing of ice, but contributes virtually nothing to weaken the pack.
TomRude says:
August 22, 2013 at 4:57 pm
Here’s one that has nothing to do with ice coverage, but shows what the ambient lighting conditions could have been when the Skate reached near the Pole in March 1959. http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/albacore_light.jpg The stop lights help gauge the brightness of the scene. /fun
@ur momisugly RACookPE1978 – What I fear is the monumental changes in weather that would take place by the continued reduction in sea ice coverage of the arctic, and resultant entry of heat and moisture during winter. In addition, I’m concerned that the net reduction in temperature gradient between the pole and the equator will lead to very serious disruptions of weather. Oddly, some of the most recent study suggests we could end up with asymmetry circulation – the existing Hadley/Ferrel/Antarctic cell circulation in the south, but an extension of he Hadley circulation in the north, taking heat and moisture directly from the equator to the Arctic.
Frankly, as a result, I find the thinning ice in the arctic terrifying.
@ur momisugly davidmhoffer – Embracing disaster? Cheering bad news?! Are you daft? I am making an observation derived from observable phenomena, and my best understanding of the literature, however amateur that might be. Your assignation absolutely does not describe my thoughts. Perhaps I am not relaxing, because I think the signals we see in the arctic are *Not* reassuring. I do not think events presage the end of the world, but I certainly think they predict great difficulties, which we are utterly unprepared to deal with; and as such, will suffer more for the lack of it.
I disagree with the conclusion Mr. Watts makes on three grounds:
1) The conditions he compares are not equivalent – the open water in the Arctic in 1987 shown is nothing at all like conditions presently.
2) The assertion that there was open water north of 80N in the past does not demonstrate that current predictions by “Warmists” are unfounded.
3) Further, without additional supporting evidence any connection between conditions at that time and the present is anecdotal. It does not demonstrate, confirm or refute any specific trend in climate.
Many people seem to think that the Arctic Ice Cap is a solid mass, like the Antarctic ice cap. It isn’t. The Antarctic cap rest on land and is solid. The Arctic ice cap floats on the Arctic ocean, and the currents of that body of water twist and turn the ice so that it breaks into pieces. One of the strongest currents is the Beaufort Gyre, a circular current near the true North Pole which effectively spins the ice round and round, grinding it into bits.
As the ice is in pieces, the currents of the ocean carry it out through the various straits into the North Atlantic. New ice is constantly being made in the Arctic. Large quantities of multi-year ice have never really existed except in people’s imaginations. Some call especially thick ice “multi-year” because that is the only explanation they can think of to explain how the ice could get that thick.
@ur momisugly Keith W.
I really like the first 75% of what you wrote – well supported facts. Unfortunately you then slipped when talking about multi-year ice. Here are some facts:
“Some” call it multi-year ice because it IS multi-year ice. It is not simply thickness that distinguishes young ice from old ice.
jdallen;
Perhaps I am not relaxing, because I think the signals we see in the arctic are *Not* reassuring.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well let’s run through a few of the “signals” and see where we are at:
Temps – flat for 17 years
Droughts – flat for decades
Flooding – flat for decades
Hurricane frequency – declining for 30 years
Hurricane intensity – declining for 30 years
Tornado frequency and intensity – declining for decades
Antarctic Sea Ice – set a record last year and on pace to set a new one this year
Arctic Sea Ice – extent well above last year and several previous years
But what observation do you insist on calling out? Well, yeah, but volume might be up. You’re *Not* reassured. You’re looking for the storm behind the silver lining, and when I pointed it out, you claim that I’m daft and don’t know what you are thinking.
Well you are right on at least one point, I don’t know what you are thinking. I do know what you said though.
jdallen;
Further, without additional supporting evidence any connection between conditions at that time and the present is anecdotal. It does not demonstrate, confirm or refute any specific trend in climate.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The ice, which for no apparent reason seems so important to you, disagrees:
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Images/ice-HS/noaa_gisp2_icecore_anim_adj.gif
jdallen says:
August 22, 2013 at 7:32 pm
@Manfred et. al. – the effect of shipping on the ice, even the huge Russian Ice breakers, is trivial. While it may temporarily create leads and do some modest fracturing of ice, but contributes virtually nothing to weaken the pack.
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What would happen if an icebraker slices off a strip of ice say 100 km long and 10 km wide in Winter along the edge of the solid ice mass during strong southerly winds ?