Notes from a 'mole' in Al Gore's Climate Leadership Training

“Lousy salesmen, you catch more flies with honey than vinegar.”
So you will agree that the insane reds-under-the-beds rants about socialists, liberals (whatever that means), watermelons, etc., that regularly pollute the comments sections of sceptic blogs are not doing a lot to help spread Global Warming scepticism?

So, just so I understand. You went to a climate conference held by Al Gore’s initiative to what….bash it? The dates on their website indicate that it was a 3-day shindig. Did you actually go through a whole process of applying and traveling to Chicago to attend this thing so you could ride your superiority soap-box on this website?
Do you not have a job?
Or anything better to do?
Regardless of what anyone thinks of Al Gore, it’s pretty easy to surmise that you’re just pathetic.
REPLY: This person went through all three days, is a certified engineer with a job, is actually “green” in deeds, and found the idea necessary because Al Gore keeps these things in secrecy, not allowing the press, not sharing the materials to allow the outside world to examine their validity.
Just look at the agreement you signed: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/the-climate-reality-project-online-training-agreement2.pdf
It reads like a gag order. – Anthony

The alarmist crowd started out with their premise reversed. But the correct premise is that ∆T causes ∆CO2 — not vice-versa, as they originally believed. When your premise is wrong, your conclusion will necessarily be wrong.
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There are equations that point out just say doesn’t. There is a lag caused by the oceans which are incredibly slow to heat up.
Strangely enough there is so much evidence that co2 is the cause of the warming, it is the skeptics that need to prove through the scientific process that it is something else. There in lies a cosmic black hole of nothing accomplished by skeptics. The best explanation wins and a very poor explanation fails.
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This is just from today’s co2. Tomorrows co2 can be a lot more or hopefully a much much lower amount.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/08/the-co2-problem-in-6-easy-steps/
CO2: RF = 5.35 ln(CO2/CO2_orig)
5.35 ln (400/280) = 1.9 watts/meter*2
Step 6: Radiative forcing x climate sensitivity is a significant number
Climate sensitivity is .75*C/ watts/meter*2
1.9watts/meter*2 ( .75*C/ watts/meter*2) = 1.4 *C
We have warmed .8*C so far and have .6*C left in the pipeline of fast feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are also mostly positive and will take several hundred more years adding a little more to the surface temperature.

Try this new peer-reviewed paper for starters: The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature
http://www.skepticalscience.com/humlum-at-it-again.html
Humlum’s work seems to be easily debunked.
REPLY: We aren’t talking about Humlum or the SkS kidz, we are talking about Al Gore. Of course if he wasn’t such an intellectual coward, he’d make his slides available for critique, but he can’t risk doing that. – Anthony

REPLY: This person went through all three days, is a certified engineer with a job, is actually “green” in deeds, and found the idea necessary because Al Gore keeps these things in secrecy, not allowing the press, not sharing the materials to allow the outside world to examine their validity.
Just look at the agreement you signed: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/the-climate-reality-project-online-training-agreement2.pdf
It reads like a gag order. – Anthony
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I have signed and am not worried in the least.

This was the event for Al Gore’s “Climate Un-Reality Project” – interesting, the “Gore Effect” visited Chicago when he was here, as it was unseasonably chilly!
http://m.prnewswire.com/news-releases/al-gore–the-climate-reality-project-welcome-1500-new-climate-leaders-217769101.html

To renewableguy
I’m sorry but the SkS posts you make make alot of claims which are simply not supported… you as well.
First you claim the heat is going into the oceans… we have little data on this and thus its a near impossible thing to say. Even if we assume for the sake of argument that this is correct…. THIS COMPLETELY DISPROVES global warming. At no time until after the pause to find the “missing” heat did anyone say the heat would go into the oceans outside of the standard “everything goes up at the same time”. This means that global warming was proven wrong even if we argue that heat really did go into the oceans as it was not predicted to do as such.
Then we have the
“In science, there’s only one thing better than empirical measurements made in the real world – and that is multiple independent measurements all pointing to the same result. There are many lines of empirical evidence that all detect the human fingerprint in global warming:”
The SkS piece you post claims alot about sat data but the sat data doesn’t support those claims. Once again even if we assume for the sake of argument that the sat data does showing CO2 warming… its only inline with the concept of tested in lab CO2… aka ZERO FEED BACK. Thus we are only looking at tops a 3 degrees of warming for about 10k ppm CO2.
sks has a habit of twisting info into supporting an argument neither those that support global warming made until after the fact or debunking strawman that never existed in the first place.
Add in that due to the fact cultists have literally made millions of claims/predictions/said everything proves global warming…. even the rare times they are right is meaningless. If the science is settled then you should be able to predict before something happens… not 5 years after it happens such as with the oceans “suddenly” sucking up all the heat.
Add in the fact the south pole for some reason isn’t sucking up any heat into its oceans kind of makes that argument worthless on its face.
I ask you a simple question… explain to me what would prove global warming wrong? The IPCC supposedly the bible of the cult has had its predictions proven wrong. So what else is left to prove wrong?

renewable guy says: @n August 2, 2013 at 8:14 pm
Speaking of engineering and science books.
……The conclusion, to summarize, is that a high-penetration solar and wind utility
system is possible…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oh great, they want to make my state another guinea pig but didn’t bother to take a look at the fiasco in the European Union.
Of course this has always been about power and money and nothing else even as the Elite speak of ‘Social Justice’ ‘Global Governance’ ‘Interdependence’ and efficiency hampered by the Westphalian order and the primacy of sovereign nation-states that comes with it…
From the IMF

….New convergence and strengthened interdependence coincide with a third trend, relating to income distribution. In many countries the distribution of income has become more unequal, and the top earners’ share of income in particular has risen dramatically. In the United States the share of the top 1 percent has close to tripled over the past three decades, now accounting for about 20 percent of total U.S. income (Alvaredo and others, 2012)….

In the 20th century, they tried the brute force method of totalitarian government (The Soviet Union and others) and the people never accepted their serfs collars so now they are trying to institute a system similar to that of the EU where ‘Governance’ is given a glaze of legitimacy. WTO Director-General Lamy identified “the three pillars of governance — leadership, efficiency and legitimacy — are split among various structures. Where the UN has an undeniable comparative advantage is in terms of legitimacy. “ He also states the decision to have a world government was made in the 1930’s

….Can we balance the need for a sustainable planet with the need to provide billions with decent living standards? Can we do that without questioning radically the Western way of life?….
Half a century ago, those who designed the post-war system — the United Nations, the Bretton Woods system, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) — were deeply influenced by the shared lessons of history.
All had lived through the chaos of the 1930s — when turning inwards led to economic depression, nationalism and war. All, including the defeated powers, agreed that the road to peace lay with building a new international order — and an approach to international relations that questioned the Westphalian, sacrosanct principle of sovereignty — rooted in freedom, openness, prosperity and interdependence…..
http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=9174

“Can we balance the need for a sustainable planet with the need to provide billions with decent living standards? Can we do that without questioning radically the Western way of life?”
Sounds great until you think about it. What is being said is the elite think the ordinary citizen in the USA, Canada, Australia and the EU have too much wealth and they want to take it from us under the guise of providing others with a ‘decent living standard’ Decent by whose measure? The starving African in a mud hut or the soccer mom in the suburbs? Of course the Elite with the tripling of their wealth really don’t care what the soccer mom thinks.
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery.” ~ Winston Churchill
We have been trying these ‘experiments in socialism’ since 1600s.

…In his ‘History of Plymouth Plantation,’ the governor of the colony, William Bradford, reported that the colonists went hungry for years, because they refused to work in the fields. They preferred instead to steal food. He says the colony was riddled with “corruption,” and with “confusion and discontent.” The crops were small because “much was stolen both by night and day, before it became scarce eatable.”
In the harvest feasts of 1621 and 1622, “all had their hungry bellies filled,” but only briefly. The prevailing condition during those years was not the abundance the official story claims, it was famine and death….
After the poor harvest of 1622, writes Bradford, “they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop.” They began to question their form of economic organization.
This had required that “all profits & benefits that are got by trade, working, fishing, or any other means” were to be placed in the common stock of the colony, and that, “all such persons as are of this colony, are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock.”
…To rectify this situation, in 1623 Bradford abolished socialism. He gave each household a parcel of land and told them they could keep what they produced, or trade it away as they saw fit. In other words, he replaced socialism with a free market, and that was the end of famines.
link

It didn’t work then and it didn’t work in the Soviet Union. But that is all right, the elite are sure to get it right this time….

renewableguy says:
August 2, 2013 at 11:17 pm
climate oscillations, changes in solar activity, variations in the Earth’s orbit, and volcanic activity.
The above are natural variations of the climate and all are tending toward cooling. What is left is human influence on the climate which is completely responsible for the warming….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And we should hope like heck that is the case.
From Peer-Reviewed papers.
Older:

Lesson from the past: present insolation minimum holds potential for glacial inception (2007)
….Because the intensities of the 397 ka BP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial. Our findings support the Ruddiman hypothesis [Ruddiman, W., 2003. The Anthropogenic Greenhouse Era began thousands of years ago. Climate Change 61, 261–293], which proposes that early anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission prevented the inception of a glacial that would otherwise already have started….

Within the past year:

Determining the natural length of the current interglacial
P. C. Tzedakis, J. E. T. Channell, D. A. Hodell, H. F. Kleiven & L. C. Skinner
Affiliations
Contributions
Corresponding author
Nature Geoscience (2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo1358
Received 23 May 2011 Accepted 28 November 2011 Published online 09 January 2012 Corrected online 10 January 2012
….The glacial inception during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 19c, a close analogue for the present interglacial, occurred near the summer insolation minimum, suggesting that the interglacial was not prolonged by subdued radiative forcing…..
[ABSTRACT only]

I emphasized the quote “was not subdued by radiative forcing”. What is meant by this is since this interglacial was at a minimum node of eccentricity and precession index oscillation, insolation did not go down to as low a level as one normally expects to be needed to set off glaciation. But glaciation started anyway.
(The actual paper without corrections?)

Determining the natural length of the current interglacial
P. C. Tzedakis, J. E. T. Channell, D. A. Hodell, H. F. Kleiven & L. C. Skinner
Past interglacials can be used to draw analogies with the present, provided their duration is known. Here we propose that the minimum age of a glacial inception is constrained by the onset of bipolar-seesaw climate variability, which requires ice-sheets large enough to produce iceberg discharges that disrupt the ocean circulation. We identify the bipolar seesaw in ice-core and North Atlantic marine records by the appearance of a distinct phasing of interhemispheric climate and hydrographic changes and ice-rafted debris. The glacial inception during Marine Isotope sub-Stage 19c, a close analogue for the present interglacial, occurred near the summer insolation minimum, suggesting that the interglacial was not prolonged by subdued radiative forcing7 . Assuming that ice growth mainly responds to insolation and CO2 forcing, this analogy suggests that the end of the current interglacial would occur within the next 1500 years, if atmospheric CO2 concentrations did not exceed 240 ± 5 ppmv….
….Climate modelling studies show that a reduction in boreal summer insolation is the primary trigger for glacial inception, with CO2 playing a secondary role3,5 . Lowering CO2 shifts the
inception threshold to higher insolation values….

Even Joe Romm over at Climate Progress stated:
“…Absent human emissions, we’d probably be in a slow long-term cooling trend due primarily by changes in the Earth’s orbit — see Human-caused Arctic warming overtakes 2,000 years of natural cooling, “seminal” study finds…”
And if you forget the decadal wiggles and look at centuries:

Norway Experiencing Greatest Glacial Activity in the past 1,000 year
…..recently there was a nice study in Quaternary Research that did a study on glacial activity in Norway for the past ~8,000 years….

ABSTRACT:
We explore the possibility of building a continuous glacier reconstruction by analyzing the integrated sedimentary response of a large (440 km2) glacierized catchment in western Norway, as recorded in the downstream lake Nerfloen (N61°56′, E6°52′). A multi-proxy numerical analysis demonstrates that it is possible to distinguish a glacier component in the ~8000-yr-long record, based on distinct changes in grain size, geochemistry, and magnetic composition. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) reveals a strong common signal in the 15 investigated sedimentary parameters, with the first principal component explaining 77% of the total variability. This signal is interpreted to reflect glacier activity in the upstream catchment, an interpretation that is independently tested through a mineral magnetic provenance analysis of catchment samples. Minimum glacier input is indicated between 6700-5700 cal yr BP, probably reflecting a situation when most glaciers in the catchment had melted away, whereas the highest glacier activity is observed around 600 and 200 cal yr BP. During the local Neoglacial interval (~4200 cal yr BP until present), five individual periods of significantly reduced glacier extent are identified at ~3400, 3000-2700, 2100-2000, 1700-1500, and ~900 cal yr BP.

The authors simply state that most glaciers likely didn’t exist 6,000 years ago, but the highest period of the glacial activity has been in the past 600 years.….

Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic
….Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ca 11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3° C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present… As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers reestablished or advanced, sea ice expanded, and the flow of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean diminished. Late Holocene cooling reached its nadir during the Little Ice Age (about 1250-1850 AD), when sun-blocking volcanic eruptions and perhaps other causes added to the orbital cooling, allowing most Arctic glaciers to reach their maximum Holocene extent…

The real controversy is will the Holocene be ending now (we are near the half precession point) or will the Holocene be a double precession interglacial. You can find a synopsis in a comment from WFM (William McClenney?) http://www.cejournal.net/?p=3305#comment-7191

… 5 of the last 6 interglacials all lasted about half of a precessional cycle… Well that 6th one was MIS-11…. MIS-11 has long been shown to consist of at least two insolation peaks, a fairly sharp one soon after glacial termination, and a long, fairly broad one after an interval of cooling. But if you take the time to closely inspect all of the figures presented here, you will likely note that they are not all the same everywhere and in every study.
At the risk of repetition from “The Antithesis”, Lisiecki and Raymo (2005) state:

“Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA community members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with 18O values below 3.6o/oo for 20 kyr, from 398-418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6o/oo for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398-418 ka as from 250-650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the June 21 insolation minimum at 65N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘double precession-cycle’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence.”

link

Also MIS-19 appears to have had at least 3 abrupt warming events during the descent into glaciation so a ‘warming spike’ doesn’t mean diddly squat.
Now tell me why ‘the fact CO2’ is keeping us out of glaciation is not making front page news. Could it be because you can’t use that to scare the masses into giving up more of their wealth and freedom?

I find the vapid, repetitive emotional appeals of the warmists posted above genuinely terrifying. It is a salutary reminder that the sort of useful idiots that supported the murderous, genocidal totalitarian regimes of the twentieth century are still being churned out.