A person who is actually a climate skeptic (and WUWT regular) applied for and was granted a training slot in Chicago this week. http://climaterealityproject.org/leadership-corps/ and has graduated as one of the 1500 people that attended the event.
For obvious reasons, I can’t reveal the person’s name, but I can reveal the communication I received last night.
The ‘mole’ writes:
I’m now a card-carrying, official Gore-bot.
(I took copious notes)
a) This was a super-liberal “kum-bay-ya” crowd as I predicted. I kept many of my opinions to myself. The event truly did have a “religious cult programming” feel to it, similar to an Amway meeting I attended years ago – carefully timed applause, audience call & response etc. Very bizarre.
b) Al Gore himself went through the entire slide show that we are supposed to use as his “Climate Leaders.” Quite honestly, there is nothing new here, EXCEPT that there is no trace of the “hockey stick” graph that was so central to “An Inconvenient Truth”!! Amazing, considering how central that was to their arguments!
c) Instead, Al lumps data together year-by-year or decade-by-decade to show an ever increasing rise in temps. He poo-pooed measurement inaccuracies, specifically mentioning UHI effects and saying that the scientists determined these were insignificant.
d) A couple graphs stood out – one showed the documented rise in temperature PRECEDES the rise in CO2 which he brushed aside as “typical variation.” The only hockey stick was one that projected atmospheric CO2 over time, jumping up drastically in coming years. I didn’t have time to write units down, but it was a big jump. It could be a realistic rise with China & India bringing new coal plants online, I’d have to check any citations.
e) Al’s presentation was heavy on his new concept of “dirty weather,” see: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/14/24-hours-of-reality-dirty-weather_n_2130344.html
To summarize, I didn’t see anything new or ground-breaking in this mess. Most slides were BS, typical “this is due to climate, not weather” type stuff we kick around on WUWT all the time. Hurricane Sandy, torrential rains in Pakistan etc.
Personal observations:
a) We skeptics ain’t liked much with them folks. The “d” word (denier) was used liberally, and I queried several participants, some of who were very cool folks, about it. Al Gore and his speakers used “Denier,” “Denial Industry” and other terms I found objectionable. Lousy salesmen, you catch more flies with honey than vinegar.
b) Nothing new was presented, technically speaking. This thing was “An Inconvenient Truth” redux, with much of the controversial stuff (hockey stick & drowning polar bears) deleted. Al got our message, he doesn’t seem to want to engage folks like us.
c) Al gave some insights into his own choices for low-carbon technologies, with a focus upon photovoltaics & wind power. He doesn’t like BWR nukes and objects because of financial reasons, which I agree with (particularly post-Fukishima). He mentioned that Oak Ridge National Labs in TN is testing a variety of nuclear reactor designs which sound promising (thorium maybe?) but didn’t elaborate.
d) Stuff I’m interested in, like ocean acidification, were only briefly touched upon. Al didn’t discuss the diplomacy challenges of engaging China and India, although he did mention their growing carbon output.
Quick summary:
Al is a polished speaker, and looked trim & in shape. Very impressive command of his speaking material. Decent speakers lined up, including some sustainability folks from private industry. I’m told the health/climate breakout session was terrible & am glad I took a pass on it.
==============================================================
UPDATE: Since many of the Gore followers are arriving here, I welcome you to answer this question that nobody would ask Mr. Gore this week:
If the position and science is so strong, why did Mr. Gore have to fake the results of his experiment in the Climate 101 video (which you may have seen and is still on the climate reality web page).
You can see the experiment recreated here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/climate-fail-files/gore-and-bill-nye-fail-at-doing-a-simple-co2-experiment/
For the few of you brave enough, thanks for taking the time to answer that question – Anthony
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renewableguy says:
August 3, 2013 at 8:00 pm
Gail Combs :
Hmm and yet the concentrations continue to climb. It is an interesting read, but if rain washes it out, why does the concentration keep going up?….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Henry’s law and big arse oceans covering 70% of the surface that have been warming. CO2 FOLLOWS temperature.
New Paper: (Jan 2013)
This is why I consider WATER the forcing and CO2 the feedback.
henry@renewable guy
I first studied the mechanism by which AGW is supposed to work. I will spare you all the scientific details. I quickly figured that the proposed mechanism implies that more GHG would cause a delay in radiation being able to escape from earth, which then causes a delay in cooling, from earth to space, resulting in a warming effect.
It followed naturally, that if more carbon dioxide (CO2) or more water (H2O) or more other GHG’s were to be blamed for extra warming we should see minimum temperatures (minima) rising faster, pushing up the average temperature (means) on earth.
I subsequently took a random sample of 47 weather stations, balanced by latitude and 70/30 @sea and inland, analysed all daily data, and determined the ratio of the speed in the increase of the maximum temperature (maxima), means and minima. Here you can see the results.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
You will find that if we take the speed of warming over the longest period (i.e. from 1973/1974) for which we have very reliable records, we find the results of the speed of warming, maxima : means: minima
0.036 : 0.014 : 0.006 in degrees C/annum.
That is ca. 6:2:1. So it was maxima pushing up minima and means and not the other way around. Anyone can duplicate this experiment and check this trend in their own backyard or at the weather station nearest to you.
deforestation (also) causes cooling, as my records in these areas will show (Tandil, Argentina)
http://phys.org/news/2011-11-deforestation-cooling.html
here you can that it is globally cooling
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2013/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2013/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1987/to:2002/trend/plot/rss/from:1987/to:2002/trend
you better check the real reasons why the climate is changing?
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
Murtaugh and Schlax published an article in Global Environmental Change (Vol 19, 2009, pp 14-20) that concluded each US child adds 9441 tons of CO2 poison to the carbon bootprint of its mother, which is 5.7 times her lifetime emissions.
Every freshly minted female Gorator who has children or plans to have children is the most execrable sort of carbon sinner. Not only are you deliberately destroying the climate with your progeny’s mountains of carbon poison, but you are doing this while preaching to everyone else that they must zero their own carbon spewage.
You should be ashamed of yourselves. The persistent cognitive dissonance and self-righteous hypocrisy must give you constant migraines.
chrys y says:
“Murtaugh and Schlax published an article in Global Environmental Change (Vol 19, 2009, pp 14-20) that concluded each US child adds 9441 tons of CO2 poison to the carbon bootprint of its mother.”
If that is what Murtaugh and Schlax wrote, then they should be disregarded as eco-alarmists. We already have seen far too much written about ‘the children’ to pay attention to those two assholes.
Amiright? Or wrong? Readers can inform me of their views, and I will abide by their decision.
chris y says: @ur momisugly August 3, 2013 at 11:08 pm
Murtaugh and Schlax published an article in Global Environmental Change (Vol 19, 2009, pp 14-20) that concluded each US child adds 9441 tons of CO2 poison…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CO2 POISON???
CO2 is no more of a poison than water is. Calling CO2 a poison and a pollutant is one of the most vicious lies I know because it directs attention away from the REAL poisons and pollutants. As a chemist and a farmer I find this the most offensive lie made by politicians.
CO2 along with the other ‘Greenhouse Gas’ water, are the primary building blocks of life on the earth!
Not only is CO2 NOT A POISON, it has gradually become too rare in earth’s atmosphere. The response was the recent evolution of C4 Photosynthesis. Today fully 95% of all plant species are of the C3 variety. These are our trees and vegetables. C4 Photosynthesis is found in plants such as
the grass family and the sedge family.
Agriculture: Positive Effects Of CO2
I see renooblebot is still here spouting his anti-science, disinformation, and lies. He obviously has no interest whatsoever in learning or in truth, which is what makes him such a good little gore-bot. Brainless and subservient is how they like ’em.
Those of you living in New Zealand, might be interested to learn that I tested the theory that the great droughts on the Great Plains
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/drought/dust_storms.shtml
was due to global cooling.
The theory is that as we are cooling from the top, the temperature differential between the poles and equator grows larger. Predictably, there would be a small (?) shift of cloud formation and precipitation, more towards the equator, on average. At the equator insolation is 684 W/m2 whereas on average it is 342 W/m2. So, if there are more clouds in and around the equator, this will amplify the cooling effect due to less direct natural insolation of earth (clouds deflect a lot of radiation). Furthermore, assuming equal amounts of water vapour available in the air, less clouds and precipitation will be available for spreading to higher latitudes. So, a natural consequence of global cooling is that at the higher latitudes (>[40]) it will become both cooler and drier.
I chose New Zealand as a random sample, lying on the edge of the > [40] latitude zone, because it has good precipitation records.
I found that in Wellington, New Zealand, for the decade 1930-1940, average annual precipitation was 14% lower than the average between 1940 and 2005.
I think that is significant?
@renewableguy
“The above are natural variations of the climate and all are tending toward cooling. What is left is human influence on the climate which is completely responsible for the warming.”
——————————
You could convince me if you could show the numbers. Would you mind taking each of the “natural variations” that are tending towards cooling, and show their effect — watts per square meter would seem to be a reasonable unit — with error bars, and just do a little bank-statement-like reconciliation (yes, my checkbook comes complete with estimates of the error 😉 to observed change in heat in the climate system (with error bars)? Could you also provide references that show how these values are calculated (that don’t refer to computer simulations, as I am rather computer illiterate)? Also, is there something that shows that these “natural variations” are orthogonal (note: I’m not saying you asserted that they are, but, of course, to be able to isolate and attribute a single factor as “causing” any kind of net change in temperature, that factor must either be orthogonal to the others, or you need to quantify the interaction among them — either one of which must have been done for you to make your assertion with such certainty.)
As I am not very intelligent, it is hard for me to wade through tons of graphs, equations, assertions made without substantiation, jargon and such, so if you could just simplify the numbers into a single column with contributions to warming shown as positive, and contributions to cooling shown as negative, I think you could quell much of the debate.
Thanks!
You want observations? How crass of you! The models say that natural factors can’t account for late-20th-century warming, and that should be enough. We won’t tell you what assumptions about the effect of natural factors went into the models, of course. Just rest assured that those assumptions were carefully constructed to get the proper results, namely that anthropogenic CO2 is an evil pollutant that requires world governance to control. Wouldn’t it be nice if our illustrious Goracle were to become the First Imperitum Illuminatus of this New World Order?
/Mr Lynn
HenryP says: @ur momisugly August 4, 2013 at 4:47 am
…The theory is that as we are cooling from the top….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
HenryP, if you have not done so already, you need to read the information at John Kehr’s The Inconvenient skeptic
At the bottom of the page click on
Chapters 1-3
Chapters 4-5
Chapters 6-7
Chapters 8-10
Chapter 11
Chapter 12: The Earth’s Atmosphere
Chapters 13-14
This gives you all the charts from his book with a brief explanation. ( Nothing like an engineer for spotting errors. )
The critical points he makes is “The flow of water in the water cycle is similar to the flow of energy in the energy balance for the Earth.”(Chapter 11) He adds Evaporation and Convection to the 6 main components of the Earth’s Greenhouse Effect. “Buried in a table the KT08 paper shows the correct value for the LW R[adiative] H[eat] T[ransfer] from the surface, but they failed to show that value in the main diagram” (63 W/m2) AND “Unmodified KT08 energy balance. It shows the Earth’s surface losing 306% more energy to the atmosphere than it gets from the Sun. This misdirection is accomplished by using radiative flux instead of energy transfer…” ( (Chapter 11)
Then read Seasonal Variation of the Greenhouse Effect
He makes the point that the amount of energy escaping to space is
1) dependent on the ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.
2) As the solar insolation changes from increasing to decreasing over the Milankovitch cycle, the NET amount of energy also changes from a gain as the earth is warming out of a glacial to a cooling as the solar insolation starts decreasing after the high point in the Milankovitch cycle is reached.
We are now in a cooling phase with a positive net outgoing energy as the data shows.
dbstealey says:
August 4, 2013 at 1:04 am
“If that is what Murtaugh and Schlax wrote, then they should be disregarded as eco-alarmists. We already have seen far too much written about ‘the children’ to pay attention to those two assholes.”
I totally agree. I think the Murtaugh and Schlax study is complete garbage. I also think it is orders of magnitude more credible than anything Gore presented in Chicago.
“You should be ashamed of yourselves. The persistent cognitive dissonance and self-righteous hypocrisy must give you constant migraines.” – This comment was addressing the members of the Chicago flock who are female and have children.
I am waiting for the Gorests to defend their personal choice of having children, after they have been repeatedly scolded that it is the worst possible sin against Gaia.
Gail Combs says:
August 4, 2013 at 1:07 am
“CO2 POISON???
CO2 is no more of a poison than water is. Calling CO2 a poison and a pollutant is one of the most vicious lies I know because it directs attention away from the REAL poisons and pollutants. As a chemist and a farmer I find this the most offensive lie made by politicians.”
I agree completely. It is reprehensible that the EPA has decided to label CO2 a poison.
Ironically, water kills far more people every year than CO2.
“You should be ashamed of yourselves. The persistent cognitive dissonance and self-righteous hypocrisy must give you constant migraines.” – This comment was addressing the members of the Chicago flock who are female and have children.
I am waiting for the Gorests to defend their personal choice of having children, after they have been repeatedly scolded that it is the worst possible sin against Gaia.
heh. warmists gonna give themselves ulcers. ;-}
@gail
I am not sure if you got what I am saying. Perhaps read my previous comment again.
I don’t believe there is any warming effect from (more) CO2
which you know why:
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2011/08/11/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-aug-2011/
Namely, nobody has brought me a convincing balance sheet……no tests… no results…just pure speculation .= climate models…
I think people finally caught up with the fact that the net effect of more CO2 could be cooling rather than warming,
http://iceagenow.info/2013/04/nasa-study-shows-co2-cools-atmosphere/
but more likely, the net effect of more CO2 is just around zero, seeing that the amount of CO2 in the air is so tiny :400 ppm = 0.04%, \anyway.
Al Gore and them preached that CO2 causes warming, and he had the graphs to prove it
(remember the ladder that he stood on?)
but he had it the wrong way around, did he not?
there are giga tons of bicarbonate in the oceans, so heat causes more CO2
– just like boiling water removes CO2 from the water:
(more) heat + HCO3- => CO2 (g) + OH-
As you said, CO2 follows the heat curve, it does not cause more heat due to entrapment.
Smoking causes cancer, but cancer does not cause smoking….
more CO2 is the cause of more warmth, not the other way around,
the fact that humans add CO2 to the atmosphere is only co-incidental….
However, global warming is now over. The Milkankowitch cycles are working on much longer time scales. We are globally cooling because of a change in the output of the sun, not so much in W/m2 but more in >E-UV – a slight shift in the distribution of energy coming from the sun, most probably due to planetary movements. In turn the varying output changes the composition TOA,
leading to more deflection of SW to space, instead of going into the oceans.
This seems to follow on a predictable 88 year sine wave,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
which has some delays on earth, making it look more like a 100 year weather cycle, from our perspectives.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
HenryP says:
August 4, 2013 at 8:14 am
@gail
I am not sure if you got what I am saying. Perhaps read my previous comment again.
I don’t believe there is any warming effect from (more) CO2…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I realize that Henry, however John Kehr pretty much agrees with that. He is saying it is water that is the big player not CO2. Remember he is including in his Greenhouse Effect. link
80% – Evaporation
18.1% – Water Vapor
17% – Convection
3.3% – CO2
1% – Ozone
.7% – other gases
These are “[t]he 6 main components of the Earth’s Greenhouse Effect. The total energy for them is the 120 W/m2”
He is then saying this Greenhouse Effect is temperature dependent and changes over the time of the year.
@gail
Trenberth mentioned that ozone is responsible for ca. 25% of all that is being back radiated (to space) and it seems he forgot about the peroxides and nitrous oxides lying TOA, as does your man. Without a balance sheet showing me how much W/m2 cooling and warming for each GHG, what can I say?
We know that ozone is increasing now, corresponding with a cooling period, from 1995 + 44= 2039.
Unfortunately, as we reach the bottom 2017-2023 of the a-c wave
1) moisture will decrease
2) cooling acceleration will stop
3) no temp difference= no pressure difference
hence the prediction of droughts similar to 1932-1939 at latitudes >[40]
I’m also a skeptic about the climate thing but I really don’t know what’s wrong with the “mole” and with you Anthony Watts, or how much money you’re making from writing this stuff. I happen to have attended the training myself and I didn’t get the “religious cult” feeling that the mole talks about. Not one single applause was faked or manipulated by anybody. All the opposite, the whole event, I thought was pretty informal and casual. There was virtually no security, and people were free to do whatever they wanted.
As much as I try to understand the hardcore skeptics, I just don’t understand why so many of you hate Al Gore or his clean energy agenda. Is it because you’re jealous of him? Is it because you don’t care about the fact that wildlife is disappearing at an extraordinary rate, that we’re polluting the oceans, running out of fresh water, and overfishing? What’s wrong with you guys? I’m not sold on the whole temperature change, but there is no question in my mind that we’re raping Mother Nature and that we’re paying a huge price. I believe in American exceptionalism, and if there is one nation who can lead a clean energy revolution that’s America. I’m tired of being taxed by Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Let’s switch to clean energy now and I don’t care if we do it because of climate change, or for security or economic reasons. But let’s do it now.
@ur momisugly antonio
Remember the ladder up the graph?
Al gore lied
He never apologised
1) Did you have to pay for the event? Because Al Gore really does know how to make cash and I’m just wondering if he “volunteered” his precious time. or did you pay for his sermon?
It was completely free and included most meals and all materials.
2) Were the people there generally of the “educated elite class”?
I met a very large variety of people, many without college degrees and many with graduate degrees.
3) Age groups, gender, religion?
Seemed like everyone from 18-80! Very good balance of male to female. I didn’t discuss religion with anyone but I did meet a pastor from MA.
4) Where there any republicans? Y’know, like Richard Alley?
I met one Chevron employee. Didn’t discuss how he voted but discussed a lot of his thoughts on oil and its future.
“Did any kind of exchange take place or was it just a delivery of instructions?”
There was a lot of time for discussion, but the day Al Gore presented since all 1500 people wanted to ask questions, they had us text in one per table. There were about 150 tables. He answered several questions but there wasn’t time for all 150. The other two days anyone could just get up and go to a microphone and ask something. It was exhausting – very full days.
Not marching orders, that’s silly. It was nothing like Landmark. An ex boyfriend of mine dragged me there. I told those freaks off – they were really using those victims and stealing their money. This was free and nothing like Landmark. A criticism I guess could be that it was a little like a rally at times, but that was all audience driven. Al Gore quieted it down ASAP and looked annoyed and it stopped happening. I’m an MIT trained scientist. I thought the science presented was adequate and I believe in man-made climate change. I took several courses on it while there.
Wendy says:
August 4, 2013 at 2:25 pm
Would you please say what evidence convinced you to believe in man-made climate change? Do you also consider that MMCC will lead to catastrophe?
Thanks.
Scott aka mindlabmedia says:
August 4, 2013 at 2:37 pm
Let me trim that long list down a little bit by removing lies, exaggerations, propaganda, and distortion.
The Inquisition of Climate Science – Powell, James Lawrence
The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change – Gore, AlClimate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming – James HogganStorms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity – Hansen, JamesClimatism!: Science, Common Sense, and the 21st Century’s Hottest Topic – Goreham, Steve
The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future – Alley, Richard B.
The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science (Independent Minds) – MONTFORD, A.W
Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming (Vintage) – Lomborg, Bjorn
Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years, Updated and Expanded Edition – S. Fred Singer
The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines – Mann, Michael E.What We Know About Climate Change (Boston Review Books) Emanuel, Kerry
Climategate: A Veteran Meteorologist Exposes the Global Warming Scam – Sussman, Brian
8<)
Here are some quotes I’ve gleaned from WUWT on the sustainability of sustainables:
Wendy says:
August 4, 2013 at 2:25 pm
So you entered as a believer in his CAGW catastrophic religion, got trained even deeper in his catastrophic religion, and left as a believer in his catastrophic religion.
What “science” do you do you practice/did you practice at MIT when you are not attending revivals run by Al Gore? What is the source of your salary, and do you admit that your own salary is both a provider of your prejudices and a supporter of your prejudices and belief system?
I’m not privy to Anthony’s bank balance, but I very much doubt if he’s made any money on this blog. Algore on the other hand has made several fortunes pushing his litany of CAGW, aided and abetted by academic, political, and enviro elites—and probably banks, too.
Just out of curiosity, pray tell: What connection do you see between so-called ‘clean’ energy (by which I assume you mean wind and solar, neither of which is really ‘clean’ and certainly not cheap) as opposed to coal, oil, and natural gas, on the one hand, and all the putative ills you evince (“wildlife is disappearing at an extraordinary rate . . . we’re polluting the oceans, running out of fresh water, and overfishing”) on the other? Some may or may not be problems worth addressing in their own right—wildlife is certainly not “disappearing”—but what’s the connection with energy?
Then you throw in energy independence. Surely the quickest route to that is the revolution in shale oil and natural gas, not mostly ineffective wind and solar farms.
What I hear is not thinking, but a litany of ‘feel good’ mantras.
/Mr Lynn