UPDATE: Breakup has occurred! See below, for my timelapse video
Here is the webcam closeup – when it was still standing as of 14:18 AKDT:
Alaska Dispatch confirms what we already knew in this thread on WUWT:
Like a striped testament to one of the coldest winters to hit Alaska in 100 years, a black-and-white tripod remains upright, atop stubborn Tanana River ice in Nenana. At 12:42 (ADT) Monday afternoon, the still-frozen waters allowed Nenana Ice Classic set a new record for the latest the ice has gone out in the 97 years since railroad workers started keeping track.
If you look on the Nenana Ice Classic website, you might think the record was broken an hour earlier, but the ice-out times listed there are in Alaska Standard Time. So the old record, listed as 11:41 a.m. (AST) is actually 12:41 p.m. Alaska Daylight Time (ADT).
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130520/97-year-old-nenana-ice-classic-sets-record-latest-breakup-river-1
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2008,
Wall Street Journal – March 7, 2008
Climate Watchers Place Own Big Bet On Alaska’s Thaw
The Ice Classic has given them a rare, reliable climate history that has documented to the minute the onset of the annual thaw as it shifted across 91 years. By this measure, spring comes to central Alaska 10 days earlier than in 1960, said geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks — and that trend is accelerating. “The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century,” Dr. Jeffries said.
The local ice lottery is further evidence of a long warming trend affecting lakes and rivers throughout the Northern Hemisphere, reported by University of Wisconsin researchers who analyzed newspaper archives, transport ledgers and religious records dating back to the 16th century……….
I wonder what he says now?
UPDATE: 4:43 PM Pacific time (15:43 AKDT), the tripod apepars to have flipped over and sunk as the breakup is now underway. I won’t be able to show this until a couple hours from now when I get home and pull up the series of time lapse captures from my PC running there. Look for a Movie to be uploaded tonight or tomorrow – Anthony
UPDATE2: Timelapse video is now uploaded, see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/20/timelapse-video-of-nenana-ice-classic-breakup-2013/
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Well, that was fun. Really. Might seem boring to some, but I enjoyed the drama. And of course, setting a new record was very satisfying.
TerryMN says:
May 20, 2013 at 4:54 pm
John from Holt says:
May 20, 2013 at 4:52 pm
“Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.”
Please see previous thread for at least a dozen explanations of why you’re wrong.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
So John. Now you guys are using a leap year(which btw makes up for the other three being short) as an excuse? Heh. It actually means the record was set 18 hours AGO. Or are you guys massaging the solar/yearly time numbers now?
From KYUU.com:
This year’s jackpot is $318,500, but not everybody stood an equal chance to win. While Forness says 1,800 guesses in the Classic extended through May and June, at least a dozen were made for September through December — with four predicting the tripod’s fall in August.
Forness says a husband and wife from Kenai bought this year’s single winning ticket.
Broll
I’m sure somebody must have put a boom downstream to hold every upstream. That’s how the skeptics operate! Even a midget minded moron can assess to that.
Just thinkin’ (about that John guy), good point JT’in and, LOL, — SO WHAT IF IT HAD BEEN one day short? Would that indicate the approximately 4% of the .04% of global CO2 emitted by humans could cause ANY significant change in global climate, John?
John from Holt says:
May 20, 2013 at 4:52 pm
“Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.”
John, the relevant data are the time of the Perihelion and the time of the Vernal Equinox:
Perihelion:
January 2, 1964: 20 44 UT
January 2, 2013: 04 37 UT
Vernal Equinox
March 20, 1964: 14 10 UT
March 20, 2013: 11 02 UT
I have taken these data from two popular websites (.http://ns1763.ca/equinox/vern1788-2211.html and http://cococubed.asu.edu/data/perihelion_earth_1900-2100.dat).
If some two people buy two tickets that straddle the exact time, who wins?
The closest prediction to the actual minute & second?
The earlier prediction? (“Ice will last at least this long” is a correct prediction)
The later prediction? (“Ice will break up before this time” is a correct prediction)
Broll
Here is my moderation.
I’m sure somebody must have put a boom downstrean to hold the ice upstream. This will likely be an explanation by the warmists.
Gerhard Kramm says:
May 20, 2013 at 5:05 pm
John Daly showed how weak this paper of Sagarin & Micheli was. In my presentation before the Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission I assessed this paper of Sagarin & Micheli as an example of foolish statistics used in climatology.
Gerhard, are you pooh-poohing the phenologists again? These guys can’t get a break. So maybe their statistics was foolish but their heart was in the right place and their media talking points were just as good as Marcott et al. Can’t they get at least a partial credit?
@crickets make noise. That was a great one liner. I look forward to a post this summer comparing the minimum Arctic ice extent to this break-up. Should be interesting closure. Now if the Chinese would only fling some funds my way (pending…) I could fing some your way. Always a joy – this site.
RACook….If some two people buy two tickets that straddle the exact time, who wins?
The closest prediction to the actual minute & second?
The earlier prediction? (“Ice will last at least this long” is a correct prediction)
The later prediction? (“Ice will break up before this time” is a correct prediction)
My understanding, from the AK Dispatch link in the head post, is that they’d split the winnings.
Alexander Feht says: “It’s always funny to watch, how they change forecasts on Yahoo weather site every few hours, reflecting the latest whim of that darn weather, after the fact. Whatever is the unknown contribution of humanity to the so called “climate,” one thing is eminently obvious: natural variations of weather make it statistically negligible.”
Again, the Bible is accurate: Ecclesiastes 11:5
“As you do not know the path of the wind,
or know how life enters the body being formed in a mother’s womb,
so you cannot understand the work of God,
the Maker of all things.”
rOLAND lEbEL,
Who is Broll?
Vernal Equinox
March 20, 1964: 14 10 UT
March 20, 2013: 11 02 UT
Since last year was a leap year that’s just 6h adjustment needed, Precession of the equinox works that other direction and has drifted back almost a day since the record started.
From the point of view of it as a proxy that makes it equal with 1964. For the betting it’s wall time that counts.
Now get ready to explain how it’s during cooling periods that there are more tornadoes. That’s tomorrow’s game.
It was fun while it lasted! In the internet age, we can now join in with the locals!
Amen, Last Democrat (at 6:11PM).
That’s why the climatologists turn themselves or the planet into “god” (or refuse to believe God exists at all — that way THEY ARE IN CONTROL (in their own minds). Pitiful.).
David Chappell said on May 20, 2013 at 4:47 pm:
I doubt WordPress will allow us to post pictures of that.
Folks, as amusing as this is, it’s really only weather. The break-up last year was the 4th earliest.
I don’t see why you guys are so happy about the record being broken, because the fact that it was broken will soon be part of the warmist’s “evidence” for global warming.
Why? Because they often cite various things ‘adapting’ to warmer conditions as evidence. And in this case it’s easy; all they have to do is say that ice has adapted and is thus more heat tolerant than ever before.
/snark
Okay, now in a serious vein, I’ll add that one of the biggest things that I hate about the global warming crowd is their stunning hypocricy. Last year the ice going out early was a good proxy for climate, but this year is isn’t. A record breaking hot spell somewhere is a good indicator of climate, but a cold spell isn’t. It’s hypocritical as hell.
>I don’t see why you guys are so happy about the record being broken, because the fact that it was broken will soon be part of the warmist’s “evidence” for global warming.
Yes. I listened to a warmers lecture stating the cold, snowy winter Alaska had last year was because the arctic ice put a stall in the jet stream. They have an answer for everything. At the very least they will define the record as “extreme weather”.
@Arizona CJ,
Whatever the weather, springs to mind.
Hypocricy is the number one currency of cults and scams.
[snip – try again to leave a cogent comment without rants, ALL CAPS, or cusswords – mod]
A fun few days albeit watching – as others have expressed – the equivalent of paint drying.
But my joy was complete when I saw that the winners of the Jackpot were: Mr and Mrs Snow!!!!
Sorry if this explanation has already been given (haven’t had time to read through the comments), but here’s what I think is the best argument why the leap year argument is the wrong one…
The vernal equinox in 1964 and 2013 both fell on 20 March. In 1964 it occurred at 1410Z and in 2013 is occurred at 1102Z. Those are, respectively, 0510AST and 0102AST.
The ice breakup on the Nenana river occurred on 20 [May] in both 1964 and 2013. In 1964 ice breakup occurred at 1141AST and in 2013 it occurred at 1441AST.
The total span of time between Vernal equinox in 1964 and ice breakup was 61 days, 6 hours, 31 minutes. The total span of time between Vernal equinox in 2013 and ice breakup was 61 days, 12 hours, 39 minutes.
So, like it or not, the ice breakup was more than six hours further into Spring in 2013 than it was in 1964 and 2013 is a record.
“… the winners of the Jackpot were: Mr and Mrs Snow!!!!” (Wizard of Oz ? [:)])
COOL!
**********************
J. Adams, it’s been 20 minutes — come on, leave a post! It must have been a doozy!