UPDATE: Breakup has occurred! See below, for my timelapse video
Here is the webcam closeup – when it was still standing as of 14:18 AKDT:
Alaska Dispatch confirms what we already knew in this thread on WUWT:
Like a striped testament to one of the coldest winters to hit Alaska in 100 years, a black-and-white tripod remains upright, atop stubborn Tanana River ice in Nenana. At 12:42 (ADT) Monday afternoon, the still-frozen waters allowed Nenana Ice Classic set a new record for the latest the ice has gone out in the 97 years since railroad workers started keeping track.
If you look on the Nenana Ice Classic website, you might think the record was broken an hour earlier, but the ice-out times listed there are in Alaska Standard Time. So the old record, listed as 11:41 a.m. (AST) is actually 12:41 p.m. Alaska Daylight Time (ADT).
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130520/97-year-old-nenana-ice-classic-sets-record-latest-breakup-river-1
Geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks said in 2008,
Wall Street Journal – March 7, 2008
Climate Watchers Place Own Big Bet On Alaska’s Thaw
The Ice Classic has given them a rare, reliable climate history that has documented to the minute the onset of the annual thaw as it shifted across 91 years. By this measure, spring comes to central Alaska 10 days earlier than in 1960, said geophysicist Martin Jeffries at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks — and that trend is accelerating. “The Nenana Ice Classic is a pretty good proxy for climate change in the 20th century,” Dr. Jeffries said.
The local ice lottery is further evidence of a long warming trend affecting lakes and rivers throughout the Northern Hemisphere, reported by University of Wisconsin researchers who analyzed newspaper archives, transport ledgers and religious records dating back to the 16th century……….
I wonder what he says now?
UPDATE: 4:43 PM Pacific time (15:43 AKDT), the tripod apepars to have flipped over and sunk as the breakup is now underway. I won’t be able to show this until a couple hours from now when I get home and pull up the series of time lapse captures from my PC running there. Look for a Movie to be uploaded tonight or tomorrow – Anthony
UPDATE2: Timelapse video is now uploaded, see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/20/timelapse-video-of-nenana-ice-classic-breakup-2013/
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Poof, there it was gone…
It’s gone! 15.44.45?
Oh dear, what can we do to keep ourselves amused now….
Holy crap, that happened in a hurry!
Just refreshed the cam at 15:39 two times… at the third time it was moving.
Must have been somewhen at the beginning of 15:40
Got home from work, pulled out the iPad, and voila! It’s done.
Let’s hear it for global warming!
Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.
Blast I missed it as I was in the shower and getting my son ready for school. 🙁
Think you Ice Classic “record” folks are jumping the gun a bit. You must be under the impression that the breakup time is recorded when the tower trips the timer. Nope. The real ice breakup time won’t be known until after the required quality control, homogenization, time series adjustments, model adjustments, reanalysis, retrospective prediction, etc., steps have been applied with the appropriate number of grant funding cycles. Guessing that after the proper statistical analysis as been applied that it will be worse than we thought.
John from Holt says:
May 20, 2013 at 4:52 pm
Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.
Please see previous thread for at least a dozen explanations of why you’re wrong.
BruceA says:
… still waiting for the dog that finally ate the data? /sarc
Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.
Not so. The reason for leap years is to correct the mismatch between the true length of the year and the day count – the Earth does not orbit the sun in an exact number of days.
Its the year before the leap year which is wrong – the leap year just adjusts it back to what it should be.
You are probably right, BruceA. When all is said and all the computations are made, it will have been the earliest breakup on record. Probably some time last January.
BruceA”
“Think you Ice Classic “record” folks are jumping the gun a bit. “…
Yep. We should take another lottery to determine what day in March it really broke up. My money’s on March 18th.
Lawrence Jenkins says:
May 20, 2013 at 3:46 pm
Sorry, in his critique of “Climate Change in Non-traditional Data Sets”,
by Sagarin R., & Micheli, F., Science v.294, p.811, 26 Oct 2001 [1],
http://www.john-daly.com/nenana.htm,
John Daly showed how weak this paper of Sagarin & Micheli was. In my presentation before the Joint Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission I assessed this paper of Sagarin & Micheli as an example of foolish statistics used in climatology.
When it goes it goes fast
Who won, and where is the movie (video)?
We should watch the river ice to see if it makes an ice dam. Those bring some quick flooding and are not to be trifled with!
And after that, back to watching the ENSO meter, which appears to have gotten out of its 0.0 rut (one of three weeks should have been +0.1). Monday’s value for the last week was -0.3.
When our Met Office computers accessed the original pixels and we applied proper statistical control and ran it through our new Super Computers that are capable of one billion calculations per second, the correct adjusted Universal time was April 5, 2013 at precisely 00:09.24 (accuracy 0.2 seconds).
LOL — The Wonderland Science Club “scientists” trying to maintain their course (and dignity) while slipping on the inconvenient reality of ice:
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THTXN_jSekU?feature=player_embedded&w=640&h=360%5D
I”m sure he’s sincere but that makes it no less disgusting.
http://dailycaller.com/2013/05/20/democratic-senator-goes-on-anti-gop-rant-over-climate-change-as-tornadoes-hit-oklahoma/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
@ur momisugly Glynnmohr [I spell my last name wrong, don’t I — ;)] Thanks for sharing photo of climate realists reveling in the Enviro-tyranny check called REALITY.
Exactly 3 hours past the previous record – update from the Alaska Dispatch that Anhony linked in the head post:
A tripod used in the Nenana Ice Classic fell off the Tanana River ice at 3:41 p.m. on Monday, May 20. But because of daylight savings, the actual time the ice went out is 2:41 p.m., according to Ice Classic organizers.
John from Holt says:
Since the previous 1964 record was set during a leap year, May 20 breakup this year does not tie the old record. It is a day short.
No. The Nenana record is based on the Gregorian calendar.
Not that it matters. To eliminate the effect of drift and reset between the Gregorian calendar and the solar cycle, one would measure onset of breakup starting at the vernal equinox. By that measure, the record was broken at 8:33 AKST this morning. The rest was gravy. The record is solidly broken. Pun!
JJ
Bond. James Bond. (007 at 5:23PM) — LAUGH — OUT — LOUD. “Waaake up!” His sign is yelling this because his audience fell asleep from boredom a long time ago. WE are “stuck”!???? (head shake) Just who is stuck on mindlessly repeating meaningless speculation, eh Sheldon?
His ability to keep a straight face is amazing — must have been a used car salesman before this gig.
I kept waiting for the “aaand, now, live from New York, iiiit’s Saturday Night Live!”
Thanks for sharing. [:)]