From the AGU weekly highlights:
Large solar proton event explains 774-775 CE carbon-14 increase
Tree ring records indicate that in 774-775 CE, atmospheric carbon-14 levels increased substantially. Researchers suggest that a solar proton event may have been the cause. In solar proton events, large numbers of high-energy protons are emitted from the Sun, along with other particles. If these particles reach Earth’s atmosphere, they ionize the atmosphere and induce nuclear reactions that produce higher levels of carbon-14; the particles also cause chemical reactions that result in depletion of ozone in the ozone layer, allowing harmful ultraviolet radiation to reach the ground.
A previous group of researchers suggested that to cause the observed eighth century carbon-14 increase, a solar proton event would have had to be thousands of times larger than any that has been observed from the Sun. However, Thomas et al. believe that group’s calculations were incorrect. They modeled the atmospheric and biologic effects of three solar proton events with different energy spectra and fluences (number of protons per area). They find that an event with about 7 or more times greater fluence (depending on the spectrum) than an observed October 1989 solar flare event could explain the 774-775 CE carbon-14 enhancement. With a hard (high-energy) spectrum, an event with this fluence would result in moderately damaging effects on life but would not cause a mass extinction. They rule out an event with a softer spectrum because such an event would cause severe ozone depletion and mass extinction, which were not observed in the eighth century. The authors estimate that solar proton events of this magnitude occur on average once in a thousand years, and more often if the estimate is based on astronomical observations of flares on Sun-like stars. They note that although that may seem low, such an event would have severely damaging effects on the technology on which society relies.
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/grl.50222, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50222/abstract
Title:
Terrestrial effects of possible astrophysical sources of an AD 774-775 increase in carbon-14 production
Abstract:
We examine possible sources of a substantial increase in tree ring14C measurements for the years AD 774-775. Contrary to claims regarding a coronal mass ejection (CME), the required CME energy is not several orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We consider solar proton events (SPEs) with three different fluences and two different spectra. The data may be explained byan event with fluenceabout one order of magnitude beyond the October 1989 SPE.Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV.We are able to rule out an event with a very soft spectrum that causes severe ozone depletion and subsequent biological impacts.Nitrate enhancements are consistent with their apparent absence in ice core data. The modern technological implications of such an eventmay beextreme, and considering recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.
Authors:
Brian C. Thomas, Keith R. Arkenberg and Brock R. Snyder II: Department of Physics and Astronomy, Washburn University, Topeka, Kansas, United States;
Adrian L. Melott: Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States.
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When I was in school a few decades ago, I was taught about “BC”, “AD”, and “CE”.
“BC” being “Before Christ”, and you counted backwards from zero, such that 1000 BC was actually 3000 years ago.
“AD” being “Anno Domini”, or “in the year of our Lord”, and you counted forwards from zero, such that today would be AD 2013.
“CE” was the politically correct version of “AD”, meaning “Current Era”. You counted forward, and if you wanted to count backward from zero, it was “BCE”, or “Before Current Era”.
I thought then, and still do, that the whole thing was stupid; it’s just a naming convention, if you can’t get over the fact that it was started by a bunch of Christians, and really are offended by the terms “BC” and “AD” when stating the year, then you must not be of very sound mind… no need to replace terms that have been in use for hundreds of years with brand new ones that are still based around the religious event!
Of course, being a geologically minded child, I was much more interested in times recorded in “MYA”, and the history of beings inhabiting the earth back then. I’ll never forget the day my mother drove me all the way across town to the new library that had opened, because I had completely exhausted our small, local branch of every book that contained the word “dinosaur” by age 8, including Bakker’s “Dinosaur Heresies”, a copy of which still sits on my shelf at home.
Anyway, protons, yeah, cool stuff 🙂
MHO is, using CE is giving in to the other side.Whoever that is.
When I read 774-775 CE, I felt like Count Dracula getting a stake
in the heart at sunrise. Use AD,please.Thank you.
Alfred
CE is common era. Problem with Anno Domini (shortened form of in the year of our lord):
1/ most people aren’t Christians.
2/ embarrassingly the actual year and date of Jesus’s birth isn’t know to better than about a 10 year period (about 4 BC to 6 AD), assuming that you believe the Biblical accounts.
Duster: …the Sierra Nevada are nearly depopulated. Developing cultural patterns are terminated and a near-hiatus in the Sierran archaeological record lasts at least a couple of centuries.
Well, I googled around looking for more information on this, and, as frequently happens, wound up following all kinds of interesting rabbit trails that weren’t what I was looking for. Any chance you can give us links or citations?
Indicative perhaps of a stronger solar magnetic field during the Dark Ages Cold Period, as during the Little Ice Age, known from the Maunder & Dalton sunspot minima, backed up by Be & C isotope data. Cosmoclimatology yet again rears its ugly (to the anti-scientific consensus) head.
Ok, I’ll bite – just what effects would we expect on present day technologies from a proton spike? EMP is one thing that’s discussed, but heck if I’ve seen anything on proton effects…
Another question would be, could the spike have lasted for significantly less than 24 hours? If so, only part of the Earth would have been affected.
Of course, the big question is, could it happen again in similar fashion?
vukcevic says: “Ancient text gives clue to mysterious radiation spike
http://www.nature.com/news/ancient-text-gives-clue-to-mysterious-radiation-spike-1.10898 ”
Nice link, vuk. The phenomenon was seen shortly after sunset, which would be consistent with some sort of solar flare made visible upon occlusion of the solar disc by the horizon. I think we’re closing in on something important. A pity there aren’t more contemporary accounts.
BC and AD return to the museum of history:
http://life.nationalpost.com/2013/02/27/museum-of-civilization-putting-the-christ-back-in-history-as-bc-and-ad-return/
Any historical references to something weird happening?
“Following this announcement, researchers pointed to an entry in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle that describes a ‘red crucifix’ seen after sunset and suggested this might be a supernova. But this dates from 776, too late to account for the carbon-14 data and still does not explain why no remnant has been detected.”
How accurate is the dating? or the account? Does this include the calendar correction that changed Isaac Newton’s birday to later than Christmas day?
stricq says:
March 12, 2013 at 3:51 pm
What the heck is CE anyway? Why the need for a replacement? Because someone might be offended? Political Correctness at its best.
*
I’m with you. I reject CE precisely for that reason. The count of years we use in the West – call it whatever you will – will still be wrong anyway according to other calendar systems. By changing the name so as “not to offend” we make ourselves look weak and stupid because we are not actually changing the system – just the name, as though we are ashamed.
Does anyone know of any other country, nation or religion, other than those in the West, that sells itself out? I loathe that in our modern era, the West is so ashamed of itself and our religion(s) are thrust aside. Hate to break to it everyone but WE ARE NOT GUILTY. Our nations should grow some pride.
AD/BC has lasted over 2000 years already, I think we can accept it now. If others can’t, that’s their choice and their problem, but you know what? You might find the objections came from WITHIN our society, not without. PC is another Green tool, in my opinion. Take away religion, you take away spirit, and a nation without spirit is a nation easily controlled. People who don’t value an inner worth don’t see any reason for ethics. People who don’t have ethics see no problem with killing and maiming and destroying, nor for thieving, lying and manipulating data to achieve the end they desire for their Cause.
Look to the Green-Reds. They are dismantling everything about our societies – Everything. Religion has to go. It’s a major step to gain full control and give us hopelessness.
Re sensitive souls offended by use of the Christian calendar’s “AD” designation: if you are going to use the numbers themselves (774-775) they are Christian, too. The Islamic calendar would make this the year 125 (I think) and there are probably other systems (Myan, etc). We could be so politically correct that we couldn’t tell a story with at date in it.
This has to be a record. An article on Solar variations and still no condescending remarks from Svalgaard to vukcevic
I would like to see some discussion of the effect of proton-events and other solar activity on the reliability of C14-dating. If solar events can increase the C14 production, can the absence of these events also decrease C14 production? It seems to me that the dating scheme is highly dependent on a constant production rate, which this post would call into doubt.
I’ve been collecting descriptions of natural phenomena, for a Masters project, from the British Isles (mostly) and also from the Frankish kingdom and the Middle East for this period. The following is what I have so far for the years 773-776.
773. “Unaccustomed drought and heat of the sun so that nearly all bread-(grain) failed. Abundance of oak-mast afterwards.” (Annals of Ulster, vol. 1. p 227.)
Between 775 and 785. “In the reign of al-Mahdi we were struck by a wind so strong that we thought that we would be swept away to the last judgement…We remained only a little time before the wind disappeared and what we were in vanished.” (al-Tabari, vol XXIX, p 250.)
776. “Here a red sign of Christ appeared in the heavens after the sun’s setting.” (Anglo-Saxon Chronicle, p 50.)
776. “Then a sign appeared; it extended from heaven to earth, and appeared like a cross. After sunset this sign showed itself.” (Geoffrey Gaimar’s History of the English, p 752.) The date for this event is corrected from the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle.
776. “…fiery and fearful signs were seen in the heavens after sunset…” (Roger of Wendover, vol. 1, p 154.) Repeated by Matthew of Westminster, vol. 1, p369, A.D. 776. Both Roger and Matthew are later compilers.
776, at the castle of Syburg in Saxony, where the Frankish garrison was being besieged by the Saxons. “One day, while they prepared for battle against the Christians in the castle, God’s glory was made manifest over the castle church in the sight of a great number outside as well as inside, many of whom are still with us. They reportedly saw the likeness of two shields red with flame wheeling over the church.” (Royal Frankish Annals, year 776, pp 53 and 55.)
I hope this helps.
There is also the following item, which is my favourite anomalous “event”, which fits into the same time frame.
776. “At that time serpents were seen; never before had any been observed like them; they showed themselves in Sussex; those who looked at them said that they were white and black, that they became red and green, and changed many colours seven or eight times a day; when night approached, they sang in so sweet a manner that there was no instrument under heaven which men would so willingly hear. When any one ran after them, the fool who wished to catch them was quickly tied by the legs, so that he could not move his feet.” (Geoffrey Gaimar’s History of the English, p 752.) The date for this entry is from the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle. This entry adds much to the very simple entry in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle (p 50), which reads “…snakes were seen extraordinarily in the land of the South Saxons.”
Best wishes, Paul Farquharson.
Before Present:
Wiki
Before Present (BP) years is a time scale used in archaeology, geology, and other scientific disciplines to specify when events in the past occurred. Because the “present” time changes, standard practice is to use 1 January 1950 as the origin of the age scale, reflecting the fact that radiocarbon dating became practicable in the 1950s. The abbreviation “BP”, with the same meaning, has also been interpreted as “Before Physics”; that is, before nuclear weapons testing artificially altered the proportion of the carbon isotopes in the atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Before_Present
Some “peaks cosmic origin”:
774?: ~Japan?
1006: China? (SN1006)
1054>1056: Europa? (SN1054)
1181: ? (SN1181)
~1300: “RX J0852.0-4622”, ?
~1420: explosion of the star Betelgeuse
1344?-1348?: ??
1572: ? (SN1572)
1604: ? (SN1604)
… (SN 1667) – (SN 1680)
…and I keep my “BP” (Before Present)
Political correctness gone wild. I read an article today that referred to lesbians as, “women of minority sexual orientation”.
Tim from Australia says:
March 12, 2013 at 6:17 pm
This has to be a record. An article on Solar variations and still no condescending remarks from Svalgaard to vukcevic
Vuk is behaving himself [for a change].
Carrington Event anyone? Would be more of a crisis than some casual warming!
Good article. Thanks.
Tiburon says:
March 12, 2013 at 4:03 pm
Space weather research to look at energy distribution
March 11, 2013
..“Right now, estimation of the amount of energy entering the Earth’s thermosphere is not very precise and can be underestimated by 100 percent. We know even less about how that energy is distributed,” Deng said. “This information is critical because if you put the same amount of energy at 400 kilometers the impact can be 100 times larger than if you put it at 100 kilometers.”..
..Deng said the grant team plans to integrate information from several different scientific models and the COSMIC satellite program. They will create a more comprehensive model of how conductivity is distributed through altitudes. The research also will explore the role that Joule heating, or friction heating, and charged particles in the ionosphere play in energy distribution. COSMIC is a joint Taiwan/United States science mission for weather, climate, space weather and geodetic research that is entering its sixth year…
http://phys.org/news/2013-03-space-weather-energy.html#jCp
thx for tip
Ha!
Want to keep your keep your internet connection, power, communication in most forms, after a major solar event?
Ya can’t,,,,,,,but ya can know about the onset of such before most other folks will.
Try this if interested.
https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/LoginWebForm.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2fproductsubscriptionservice%2f
Leif, can you give us a dissection of this discussion’s accuracy? Yes, Art Bell and Michio Kaku ~:-)
lsvalgaard says:
March 12, 2013 at 7:07 pm
“Vuk is behaving himself [for a change].”
That remark is in itself arrogant and condescending.
I would request that everyone from now on date things Ab Urbe Condita. Using any other calendar will offend me.
There. AUC 1527.
OssQss says:
March 12, 2013 at 8:22 pm
Leif, can you give us a dissection of this discussion’s accuracy? Yes, Art Bell and Michio Kaku ~:-)
Generally, OK, but with a few flaps:
‘every time the solar poles flips a shock wave …’ is nonsense. No shock wave.
‘monitored sunspots for a century…’ more like 4 centuries.
The effect of a Carrington event [or larger] when [not if] it happens will be severe and global. Many of our satellites will get zapped, communications and internet will not work too well. Power transmission lines will be impacted big time. So this is a real [future] problem. We really cannot do much to protect ourselves because our vulnerable infra-structure is already in place. Perhaps stock up on supplies [I hate to sound like a survivalist, but this is real – I haven’t BTW] is something individuals can do.