From the AGU weekly highlights:
Large solar proton event explains 774-775 CE carbon-14 increase
Tree ring records indicate that in 774-775 CE, atmospheric carbon-14 levels increased substantially. Researchers suggest that a solar proton event may have been the cause. In solar proton events, large numbers of high-energy protons are emitted from the Sun, along with other particles. If these particles reach Earth’s atmosphere, they ionize the atmosphere and induce nuclear reactions that produce higher levels of carbon-14; the particles also cause chemical reactions that result in depletion of ozone in the ozone layer, allowing harmful ultraviolet radiation to reach the ground.
A previous group of researchers suggested that to cause the observed eighth century carbon-14 increase, a solar proton event would have had to be thousands of times larger than any that has been observed from the Sun. However, Thomas et al. believe that group’s calculations were incorrect. They modeled the atmospheric and biologic effects of three solar proton events with different energy spectra and fluences (number of protons per area). They find that an event with about 7 or more times greater fluence (depending on the spectrum) than an observed October 1989 solar flare event could explain the 774-775 CE carbon-14 enhancement. With a hard (high-energy) spectrum, an event with this fluence would result in moderately damaging effects on life but would not cause a mass extinction. They rule out an event with a softer spectrum because such an event would cause severe ozone depletion and mass extinction, which were not observed in the eighth century. The authors estimate that solar proton events of this magnitude occur on average once in a thousand years, and more often if the estimate is based on astronomical observations of flares on Sun-like stars. They note that although that may seem low, such an event would have severely damaging effects on the technology on which society relies.
Source:
Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/grl.50222, 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50222/abstract
Title:
Terrestrial effects of possible astrophysical sources of an AD 774-775 increase in carbon-14 production
Abstract:
We examine possible sources of a substantial increase in tree ring14C measurements for the years AD 774-775. Contrary to claims regarding a coronal mass ejection (CME), the required CME energy is not several orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We consider solar proton events (SPEs) with three different fluences and two different spectra. The data may be explained byan event with fluenceabout one order of magnitude beyond the October 1989 SPE.Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV.We are able to rule out an event with a very soft spectrum that causes severe ozone depletion and subsequent biological impacts.Nitrate enhancements are consistent with their apparent absence in ice core data. The modern technological implications of such an eventmay beextreme, and considering recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.
Authors:
Brian C. Thomas, Keith R. Arkenberg and Brock R. Snyder II: Department of Physics and Astronomy, Washburn University, Topeka, Kansas, United States;
Adrian L. Melott: Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States.
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“. They rule out an event with a softer spectrum because such an event would cause severe ozone depletion and mass extinction, which were not observed in the eighth century.”
Not observed in the Old Word – what about South America and demise of it’s great civilizations? For example the (infamous) Mayans (google “Classic Maya collapse”)? Most likely just a coincidence, but what if it’s not? There’s strong evidence for many significant SPEs in earth’s history (for example 12,900 ya), Maybe our sun is not as docile as we’d like it to be?
Astronomers using ESA’s Herschel space observatory have detected emission from the base of black-hole jets for the first time.
http://sci.esa.int/science-e/www/object/index.cfm?fobjectid=51482
Why do you introduce the article using ‘CE’ instead of ‘AD’? Why would anybody in Europe or countries settled by Europeans use such a peculiar dating terminology?
Why not write it as 774-775 AD, which is used by 99 percent of us?
No matter what somebody’s own religion / culture, if he wants to cater to his audience, he uses the dating scheme that is ingrained in its culture. To use this ‘CE’ nonsense is an insult to the people he is talking to.
Anyone know of any human perturbations around this time period, Famine, pestilence, etc? Any historians out there that can wade in on this comment?
Many Google hits refer to mention of an astronomical event in the Saxon chronicles for that year, when a “red crucifix” is seen in the sky. Also to Song of Roland episode when Charlemagne begs God to make the sun stand still so he may pursue his enemies in daylight.
I think the period in question was referred to as ‘The Dark Ages’.
But just remember, TSI is constant and therefore the sun has no influence on climate! /sarc
The entire second half of the first millennium CE is chaotic. It has been suggested that Krakatoa may have erupted on an even greater scale than the 1883 eruption in 535 CE. There is abundant historical evidence of a profound cooling event similar to the effects of the Laki eruption in Iceland in the 18th C. The chill apparently didn’t last long and regionally there are records of both drought and flood. In California the Sierra Nevada are nearly depopulated. Developing cultural patterns are terminated and a near-hiatus in the Sierran archaeological record lasts at least a couple of centuries. Historical documents place the main event at 535 CE, but there is no record of the precise location, unsurprising, since being near enough to know what went up would have been fatal. Following that initial event the plague passes through at least three major cycles. Christian and Muslim shills sell the terrible weather as the punishment of God/Allah and drum up some major business and also blame the bad times on each other. This is followed by the Medieval Warm Period. Interestingly, the first half of the same millennium sees cooling from the Roman Warm period that is comparable to the LIA.
Perhaps the 14C effect could have been achieved by a series of smaller proton events, rather than one large burst.
I note that the politically correct AGU uses Christian Era years, where the abstract uses Anno Domini years. Extra credit to Thomas et al. for placing the AD as a prefix.
vukcevic says:
March 12, 2013 at 2:54 pm
“Astronomers using ESA’s Herschel space observatory have detected emission from the base of black-hole jets for the first time.”
When Black holes become attracted to each other they release their energy and form galaxies, The big bang theory is based on the observation of “Background radiation” and dictated contradictorily, our milky-way galaxy is releasing energy, it came into contact as a black hole with Andromeda which was also a black hole. It is now currently doing what galaxies do, that is releasing it’s energy.
The current theory is; that galaxies formed from nothing, hot dense gases formed galaxies throughout the universe.
The Sun is not “docile” but natural processes follow the power law.
Newman, M. E. J. (2005). “Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf’s law”. Contemporary Physics 46 (5): 323–351. arXiv:cond-mat/0412004. doi:10.1080/00107510500052444
[quote]Abstract: When the probability of measuring a particular value of some quantity varies inversely as a power of that value, the quantity is said to follow a power law, also known variously as Zipf’s law or the Pareto distribution. Power laws appear widely in physics, biology, earth and planetary sciences, economics and finance, computer science, demography and the social sciences. For instance, the distributions of the sizes of cities, earthquakes, forest fires, solar flares, moon craters and people’s personal fortunes all appear to follow power laws. The origin of power-law behaviour has been a topic of debate in the scientific community for more than a century. Here we review some of the empirical evidence for the existence of power-law forms and the theories proposed to explain them.[/quote]
Joe Grappa says:
March 12, 2013 at 2:57 pm
Why do you introduce the article using ‘CE’ instead of ‘AD’? Why would anybody in Europe or countries settled by Europeans use such a peculiar dating terminology?
Why not write it as 774-775 AD, which is used by 99 percent of us?
No matter what somebody’s own religion / culture, if he wants to cater to his audience, he uses the dating scheme that is ingrained in its culture. To use this ‘CE’ nonsense is an insult to the people he is talking to.
Joe, the odds are you’re wrong about what dating systems the majority of readers use given WUWT’s global viewership. Even here in the USofA some of us find the use of AD presumptuous. BTW, the “AD” precedes the year number in proper usage. It would properly be “AD 774-775.” Use it backward around a classicist or two and they won’t hesitate to set you straight and accuse you of parochialism as well. Happened to me in Israel. So another good reason to use “CE” is because it is a simple, proper English usage, as opposed to an inverted Latinism, without built-in religious assumptions that irritate Muslims, and make Buddhists smile, while Hindus simply shake their heads.
Technically, the term CE is Common Era – invented by academia to denigrate “any” implication that we have any religious influence on life and liberty – but it is interesting to note that those who are “politically corrupt” didn’t recognize that it could also be “Christian Era.”
What the heck is CE anyway? Why the need for a replacement? Because someone might be offended? Political Correctness at its best.
Ancient text gives clue to mysterious radiation spike
http://www.nature.com/news/ancient-text-gives-clue-to-mysterious-radiation-spike-1.10898
Duster says:
“…another good reason to use ‘CE’ is because it is a simple, proper English usage, as opposed to an inverted Latinism, without built-in religious assumptions that irritate Muslims…”
But what if I like to irritate Muslims?
Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV.
And for some perspective on this, relatively how damaging is it to plants for CO2 to double and for temperatures to go up 3 C?
@RACookPE1978
AD-BC does fine, Wikipedia is carp, a fantastic idea as a social experiment, but it has issues.
This might be construed to be relevant: –
Apparently, $400K grant to Yue Deng at U of Texas @ur momisugly Arlington, who’s been central to the development of the 3-D GITM and she’s also winner of the 2010 CAREER Award. A Leading Light, so-to-speak, and perhaps we’ll be gaining further understanding how that Node (?) in the Sky is affecting our Climate (by orders of magnitude larger, likely, than CO2)
A Quote from her, in the article: –
“Right now, estimation of the amount of energy entering the Earth’s thermosphere is not very precise and can be underestimated by 100 percent. We know even less about how that energy is distributed,” Deng said. “This information is critical because if you put the same amount of energy at 400 kilometers the impact can be 100 times larger than if you put it at 100 kilometers.”
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-03-space-weather-energy.html#jCp
NB: – No opponents of the EU Model have been harmed in the posting of this comment.
Wow, great link, vukcevic!
Thanks also due to Michael Cohen for the ‘red crucifix’ ancient culture connection…
Personally I believe we would all benefit by paying closer attention to what’s been dismissed as ‘myth and ignorance’ over the last century of reductionist science, in most disciplines.
D.B. Stealey says: March 12, 2013 at 3:55 pm
But what if I like to irritate Muslims?
Then you have company.
Mike, who flew past New York on 9–11 enroute to London.
Here is another good article
http://soundgecko.com/view/7eDYPeCdS02s_5V2Nqe7XwoD73BYrx/why-was-earth-bombarded-with-high-energy-particles-in-the-year-774
warning: word ‘crucifix’ is mentioned (the world has gone nuts!).
RACookPE1978 says:
March 12, 2013 at 3:46 pm
“Technically, the term CE is Common Era – invented by academia to denigrate “any” implication that we have any religious influence on life and liberty”
Or…..Carbon Era ?
Correctness Era?