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Traveling this weekend, posting will be light.
Discuss any topics per our policy page.
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Children won’t know what snow looks like due to global warming.
http://coloradolivecams.com/colocam-eisenhowercdotcam.htm
Can someone help with the details of the correct argument here?
If the Earth were in danger of going into thermal runaway (a “tipping point” as a result of CO2-caused heating, kicking up more water vapor), why would it not have already happened due to water vapor chain-reacting WITH ITSELF?
Does an N2 molecule (for example) somehow remember that its kinetic energy came from a photon that was trying to escape to space from the Earth’s surface, that happened to be trapped by a rare CO2 molecule (from a tiny and slowly increasing concentration) rather than by an H2O molecule (of moderate, and highly fluctuating, and rapidly fluctuating concentration)? Of course not. Locally (to include millions of square miles) the H2O concentration varies over times of perhaps a day by several orders of magnitude. Why would the run-away WAIT for CO2 molecules to have their say?
If there is some claim of a constant (average?) relative humidity, why is that – – – and on what time and distance scales? To argue that local water vapor conditions are balanced by distance ones, and therefore thermal runaway due to water vapor itself would not be possible, strikes me as similar to arguing that an atomic bomb cannot possibly explode because the concentration of Uranium averaged over the Earth is insufficient.
When it comes to possible positive feedbacks, we of course note the differences between amplification and true run-away. We also note the unlikelihood of the OBSERVED long-term stability unless a net negative feedback is already operating in nature. Likely this includes thunderstorms and clouds, and dozens of other thing demanded by the laws of thermodynamics. Amplification by positive feedback seems modest at best. Positive feedback runaway should not even be on the table. Water would have already done us in. The Earth does seem to have an adequate supply of water!
But here I am honestly asking for clarifications. What am I missing?
Sun article in the Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290289/NASA-warns-unexpected-happening-Sun-year-supposed-peak-sunspot-cycle.html
I’ve noticed a new expression in the quote from somebody’s blog published in WSJ recently:
“We live in the “post-truth” era.”
This realization becomes a household topic: almost nobody today dares or bothers to tell the truth, not only because it may damage a professional career (and it does, certainly) but also because it’s of no use; talk as much as you want, the low-brow rulers of our wallets lie and do what they want with total impunity. Green religion is just a small part of the picture.
If you want to have some fun, go to this YAHOO article and post some comments blasting the article:
Hey Deniers, Take a Long Look at the Faces of Climate Change
http://news.yahoo.com/hey-deniers-long-look-faces-climate-change-192007692.html
I came across an essay from Michael Crichton warning of the dangers of politicized science, titled:
Why Politicized Science is Dangerous
(Excerpted from State of Fear)
I highly recommend it. Link is below. The odd thing is although this is one of his essays, and the web site is supposed to be Crichton’s official site, this essay does not show up in the index, and even the title of the web page is incorrect, reflecting the title of another essay. I came across it indirectly.
http://www.crichton-official.com/essay-stateoffear-whypoliticizedscienceisdangerous.html
Bernie Hutchins says:
March 9, 2013 at 11:08 am
“But here I am honestly asking for clarifications. What am I missing?”
You are missing that the warmist scientists do not give one iota for logic because they know they will never be called out by MSM journalists or by low information voters.
The Post-Truth Era. even more than the Green-Gaia religion is the hidden basis of the modern world. The human world is now changing so rapidly that people believe that they can move on up their ladder faster than the truth can move to catch them up and bite them.
The French are just realising they have no need for wind power. 90% of their energy is produced by Neuclear and Hydro. They want to know why all their new unecessary wind generators that only work one day in four are being highly subsidised and pushing up their power prices.
Latest from Christopher Booker.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/9919121/Look-at-the-graph-to-see-the-evidence-of-global-warming.html
An observation…as I sit here looking at the four inches of snow surrounding my house I recall that last year at this time the golf courses were open (warmest March on record); guess it was just weather, or maybe this is, or maybe it always is.
You’re missing nothing. Geology already tells us that the Earth has been much hotter, much colder, and has had ten times the CO2 in the atmosphere — during Ice Ages! Obviously the Earth has never had runaway permanent cooling or warming, so the null hypothesis should be that the Earth has feedbacks to prevent these things from happening.
What the alarmists try to sell is that THIS TIME it’s UNPRECEDENTED, so we can’t count on those systems working now because “the tipping point” could be reached before the negative feedbacks in the climate can work.
I say bullocks.
Open Thread Weekend! ☺
Bernie Hutchins says:
March 9, 2013 at 11:08 am
——-
Wish I could help, I’d love to hear the details of this as well. I think at one time I’d convinced myself it had something to do with the shorter lifespan of water vapor in the atmosphere as opposed to the lifespan of CO2 in the atmosphere, but I can’t recall exactly why the heck that seemed sensible anymore.
A related question for me is the paleo question – is it part of the argument about the paleo warming that warming caused CO2 to increase, which caused warming to increase, which caused CO2 to increase, etc. ? In other words, is the warmist argument that paleo warming was some sort of limited ‘runaway’ global warming? I’ve never followed why the whole shebang shouldn’t crash to one rail or the other with positive feedback (like any other system you can think of would behave) but then again I’m not a climate scientist…
Does anyone know if the paleo argument involves runaway global warming? Also, does anyone know how in the world paleo warming was attributable to CO2 without knowing climate sensitivity in advance? Or is it sort of an ‘assuming CO2 causes warming with CS=3 or 5 or whatever, the record more or less makes sense’?
Thanks for any feedback.
WUWT Wit
Over the past two years or so I’ve collected funny zingers from WUWT. I’m now sharing a selection of the briefest ones.
—————-
===================
MY STUFF:
(Some of these I probably re-used from someone else and I’ve forgotten by now that I did so. If these were yours originally, feel free to say so below.)
has anyone posted this?
9 March: UK Daily Mail: A river once ran through it!
Map showing Antarctica before the ice came shows huge valley running through the continent
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2290673/A-river-ran-Map-showing-Antarctica-ice-came-shows-huge-valley-running-continent.html
@ur momisugly D. B. The red triangle is slightly smaller in the illustration with the hole.
============================================
Thanks for that. I had suggested to Anthony once that he put such things together into a book. He could call it, “The Lighter Side of Hot Air”.
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He said Open Thread, not Open Block!
But to return to science, maybe that where the missing heat is hiding?
Nice collection there, rogerknights !
So where will you be when the stock market crashes this time?
Anthony
I just returned from Kangaroo Island off South Australia and visited the Cape Borda light station. “Mic” Rosewarne the greeter, keeper, and storyteller told me that the Stevens box, which I was photographing at the time, had been closed several years ago and an automated station constructed some 300 meters into the bush off the 150 meter escarpment. That day, Wednesday March 6, there was a 12 knot breeze at the light station/weather post and the air was still 3 kilometers inland at the light keepers cemetery.
I wonder if you would be interested in pictures of the Orginal Stevens box and it’s surroundings. Another one of those possible location adjustment questions.
“””””…..@ur momisugly Bernie Hutchins……But here I am honestly asking for clarifications. What am I missing?…..””””””
What you are missing Bernie, is that water does not comprise a runaway system either in fact just the opposite. Water is the regulating factor that prevents us from having any such thing happen.
More global warming causes more evaporation, more atmospheric water content, and more precipitation; in fact 7% increase in all three for a one degree C increase in earth surface Temperature (Wentz et al).
More atmospheric water (vapor, liquid, solid) means more clouds to reflect solar energy back to space, or absorb more of it, and more water vapor absorbs more incoming solar radiation from about 700 nm wavelength; so that is less solar energy that reaches the deep oceans to get stored as heat.
Less ocean heating results in less evaporation and less cloud formation, so the eventual precipitation due to the cooling Temperatures, will remove both clouds, and water vapor, which will allow more solar energy to reach the surface.
So long as the earth’s oceans persist, we couldn’t change the Temperature of this planet if we wanted to.
And if we wanted to Bernie, where would you personally set the thermostat, and why ??
“”””””….. DR says:
March 9, 2013 at 8:29 pm
So where will you be when the stock market crashes this time?……”””””
At the buying window. It’s the suckers who get panicked into selling when they should be buying, who get hurt.
And it doesn’t hurt to take some profits while they are there, so you have the means to buy more, when it crashes.
Big/oil/coal/gas/wood are killing the world
See the thing is that big/oil/gas/coal/wood are killing the world. Where I live the fire last year burnt so much wood that the smoke blocked out the sun for a long time and that made everything hotter because the heat got trapped by the smoke, my friend who is a scientist at the school told me that. He is really smart and knows all about wood and how the smoke kills people with extra heat. Yeah those scum bag oil people are killing us, and they do it for money, I heard that they are now watering down petrol to make even more money. Bastards that is why my truck keeps stopping. Now I have to get a new one, but the government won’t help me as they say I need to ask big oil/gas/coal/wood for one. Fat chance of that!! Another thing is on Nuclear power places, like three mile island and that one in Japan that got drowned by the 911 wave. Yes Nuclear power places are really bad news and we should blow them up as they cause cancer and other stuff. My scientist friend told me that all we need are a few hundred more huge windmill things and solar stuff on roofs and then we can save the birds, animals and other stuff too. You see I am now a Green person, I did not used to be but since I saw that film “Greedy Lying Bastards” I have changed, cos now I know that big/oil/gas/coal/wood are killing us for money and because they are very bad people. Places like WUWT are doing a really good job of showing the world how evil is big/oil/gas/coal/wood. I am writing a book on this subject, my friend the scientist (Paul) is going to help me with some of the science stuff cos to tell you the truth, I do find it a bit much. He got all his stuff from a Mr Al Gore. Have you heard of him? Paul says he is the real deal and really knows all about big/oil/gas/coal/wood. Do you know that I am an Aussie? We have an election coming up soon, and we will put Julia Gillard back in for another 4 years. Good one eh mate? She is really smart too, (not as smart as Paul) She has this new tax called a carbon footprint tax you see and I only have to pay 15% of my wages to her and she promises to help save the birds, animals and other stuff too. Cool eh! So if you are voting, vote for her. Ok Mate! PS: I was going to become a journalist; the only job I applied for was with the ABC. But I did not want to work for them as they just do TV stuff for kids. I also wanted to go on Q&A but they never got back to me, hmm I wonder about that sometimes.