HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:45 am
“henry@dirkh
we are not talking abt just one result
it is many results?”
I don’t know. You complained Spencer doesn’t appear here – I just wanted to point out he has his own blog; ask him over there (and I pasted a text that I found talking about the latest spike)
If correlation is causation then … Some twenty years ago, I began to notice that every time there was a prediction of a snow storm, if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.
I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.
My sympathies to all the people in the NE of the US. This side of the pond in NE England we have below average temperatures and snow forecast. This is the stuff that we were told would be a “rare and exciting event” just 12 years ago. We have had a pretty bad winter here, but never mind AGW can be blamed for that too!
dmacleo
February 10, 2013 12:17 pm
digging out. got just enough of driveway done to park 2 side by side. working on the road. have single lane access but am widening for double. road drifted bad, average 4 feet deep.
did a 600 foot long by 15 feet wide (to expand the single lane) done, took almost 2 hours.
use the equipment shown here http://www.theconservativevoices.com/uploads/1299289193/gallery_2_501860.jpg
going to take me few days to widen the road, problem is I have more due and then this weekend another storm it looks like.
may have to mount the spare blower to the small tractor and have wife do the cleanup from me climbing banks and moving them.
the lugged tires on garden tractor allow me to go approx 50 deg angle climbing banks.
all while so disabled I can hardly stand or walk. long days LOL
Mark and two Cats says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:11 am
Okay, so I never went to college. Trying to understand this stuff anyway. People in other threads talk about heat from the Earth being lost out into space. How can heat be lost to space? As I remember from high school (a long time ago), heat is molecules jostling one another. Space is empty; how can heat be transferred into nothing?
Yeah I’m prolly missing something obvious. Be kind.
The respondents responding with “radiation” are correct, but not too kind.
This isn’t alpha particles and beta rays kind of radiation, it’s photons, the same sort of radiation you feel coming from the sun, a hot engine block, or a wood stove. Hot sources put out visible light, cooler sources put out infrared light, even really cold objects still radiate longer wavelengths – a frozen turkey does, the Earth’s ice caps do, carbon dioxide gas does. Pretty much every photon that makes out of the Earth’s atmosphere doesn’t come back and is lost to space.
Village Idiot
February 10, 2013 12:31 pm
Sen. Marco Rubio (“The Republican Savior”) climbs onboard:
“First of all, the climate is always changing. That’s not the fundamental question. The fundamental question is whether man-made activity is what’s contributing most to it. I understand that people say there is a significant scientific consensus on that issue, but I’ve actually seen reasonable debate on that principle.”
“reasonable debate” – read WotsUpWThat. Good job y’all :))
Manfred
February 10, 2013 12:38 pm
HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:38 am
henry@manfred
UAH IS OUT WITH ALL TRENDS
Not only RSS
——————————-
No, very similar to RSS http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/offset:-0.09/plot/rss/trend/offset:-0.09/plot/uah/plot/uah/trend
—————————-
Consider
1. to adjust for different baselines
2. tropospheric temperature trends (RSS, UAH) are not supposed to be the same as ground measured temperature trends, mainly due to hotspot in the tropical troposphere.
(they are supposed to be higher, though in reality they have been lower since 1979. But that is just another issue with climate models and UHI, not satellite data.)
oldfossil
February 10, 2013 12:43 pm
Only got one “bite” when I posted this at thelukewarmersway.com so I thought I’d try it out on you guys.
Global warming will cause the following damage & disruption:
> Sea level rise
> More frequent and more severe drought
> More frequent and more severe flooding
> More frequent and more severe storms
> Species decline e.g. coral polyps, polar bears
> Spread of disease
> Large-scale population displacement
Some other but less credible claims to be found at: http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/sciencetech/5-deadliest-effects-of-global-warming/276?image=0
How about a factual discussion of the likelihood of each of the above seven consequences?
Lewis P Buckingham
February 10, 2013 12:47 pm
Mark and Two cats says..heat lost into space.
Its a bit like you are sitting in front of a campfire on a cold frosty night and the stars above are an immensity of twinkling lights.
You find your face gets hot from the radiation from the fire, your back gets cold.
The heat that hits you is radiant heat.As the embers die, so the heat on your face gets less and you put more wood on the fire.
Above you the atmosphere is ‘ feeling’ a bit the same as the campfire.
It has stored heat from the sun the day before, and it is radiating it into space where one day it may reach those stars. It can do this on its own without the help of anything else.
Neo says:
February 10, 2013 at 12:10 pm
If correlation is causation then …
Some twenty years ago, I began to notice that every time there was a prediction of a snow storm, if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.
I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.
=================================================================
Back in the late ’70s I occasionally had the opportunity to stop by an Entenmann’s Bakery Outlet store. They were good. But I don’t think they are to blame for Global Warming. Neither Mann nor Hansen are Danish and both are definitely nuts!
Justthinkin
February 10, 2013 1:18 pm
Paul Vaughan says:
February 10, 2013 at 9:40 am
Cat checks out massive snow drift in Coldbrook, Newfoundland, Canada
“massive”???? You all must be from HI. My 4 cats have played with the dog in 25′ drifts. Just normal wx. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Interestingly, there was a Paul Ehrlich who was a real and honest scientist. He was Paul Ehrlich, born 14 March 1854 in Strehlen near Breslau and died 20 August 1915 in Bad Homburg vor der Höhe. He was a German physician and scientist who worked in the fields of hematology, immunology, and chemotherapy. He invented the precursor technique to Gram staining bacteria, and the methods he developed for staining tissue made it possible to distinguish between different type of blood cells, which led to the capability to diagnose numerous blood diseases. His laboratory discovered Arsphenamine (Salvarsan), the first effective medicinal treatment for syphilis, thereby initiating and also naming the concept of chemotherapy.
He was quite unlike his namesake Paul R. Ehrlich.
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ehrlich
DirkH
February 10, 2013 1:27 pm
oldfossil says:
February 10, 2013 at 12:43 pm
“Global warming will cause the following damage & disruption:”
Change that “will” to “would, if it proceeded”.
“> Sea level rise”
yes
“> More frequent and more severe drought”
No, not on average. A warmer world is a moister world. The Sahara was green during the Roman Warm period. And during other warm periods. North Africa was the corn chamber of the Roman Empire.
“> More frequent and more severe flooding”
Yes. Warmer = moister.
“> More frequent and more severe storms”
No. Cold places would warm up more than warm places. Says the official CO2AGW doctrine, and makes sense, you need less energy to heat up something cold by one degree than something hot – the hot object loses more energy through radiative losses. (Stefan-Boltzmann law)
Heat differences between poles and lower latitudes would diminish. Less heat difference means weaker storms.
“> Species decline e.g. coral polyps, polar bears”
No. warm places always have more biodiversity than cold places. Species can migrate, often meters suffice (get more in the shade, for instance)
“> Spread of disease”
Why would that be?
“> Large-scale population displacement”
As I said, cold palces would warm up more than warm places. The population displacement that could happen would be a migration to the North where previously unproductive land would become available for agriculture, and into the greening desert belts.
While solar is a far less polluting energy source than coal or natural gas, many panel makers are nevertheless grappling with a hazardous waste problem. Fueled partly by billions in government incentives, the industry is creating millions of solar panels each year and, in the process, millions of pounds of polluted sludge and contaminated water.
Beware the Big Errors of ‘Big Data’ By Nassim N. Taleb, 02.08.13 9:30 AM http://www.wired.com/opinion/2013/02/big-data-means-big-errors-people/
We’re more fooled by noise than ever before, and it’s because of a nasty phenomenon called “big data.” With big data, researchers have brought cherry-picking to an industrial level. Modernity provides too many variables, but too little data per variable. So the spurious relationships grow much, much faster than real information. In other words: Big data may mean more information, but it also means more false information.
Big data can tell us what’s wrong, not what’s right.
Mike McMillan
February 10, 2013 3:31 pm
After watching the snow rise video in the last post, I surfed across this video explaining all the earth orbit variations. It’s a lot more than the ones in the Milankovitch cycles. 9½ minutes.
First ever tornado to touch down in Mississippi. http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/10/us/mississippi-tornado/index.html
Well, I assume it’s the first ever from the ways it’s taken over CNN. Maybe it’s just the biggest ever. Anyway, definitely caused by CAGW.
Global Warming
Climate Change
Climate Disruption
Ocean Acidifaction
Global Weirding
Climate Chaos
Extreme Weather
The New (and ever renamed) Normal
“dmacleo” – 50 degrees and no roll-over protection?!
Mike McMillan
February 10, 2013 6:28 pm
Gunga Din says: February 10, 2013 at 12:54 pm
Neo says: February 10, 2013 at 12:10 pm if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.
I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.
=================================================================
Back in the late ’70s I occasionally had the opportunity to stop by an Entenmann’s Bakery Outlet store. They were good. But I don’t think they are to blame for Global Warming. Neither Mann nor Hansen are Danish and both are definitely nuts!
Hansen could be either Danish or Norwegian. Hanson might be Swedish. That’s the consensus view of Scandinavian names.
Mann and Entenmann could be German. Coincidence?
dmacleo
February 10, 2013 6:28 pm
Keith Sketchley says:
February 10, 2013 at 5:29 pm
“dmacleo” – 50 degrees and no roll-over protection?!
****************************************************
thats vertical not sidehill, I do have 2 sidehill protectors. they ache right now 🙂
I also bypass the seat shutoff switch so I can shift weight as needed w/o tractor shutting off.
somewheres I had pics of the front being about 7-8 feet higher than the rear clearing a 10 foot bank.
the rear weight box tends to hit also to offer some warning but I can, and have, uassed the AO in a hurry when needed. the 200 lbs or so of snowblower and accumulated snow on it leverage out enough to help.
I am hard on equipment for some reason 🙂
D. Patterson
February 10, 2013 8:13 pm
Leon0112 says:
February 10, 2013 at 10:39 am
Just read a piece saying a group of scientists believe a giant asteroid hitting what is now Mexico caused the extinction of dinosaurs and many other species. Question: Did the asteroid cause an Ice Age?
No, it did not. The impact generated enough heat in the region of the impact creator and somewhat beyond to reach temperatures comparable to the outer atmosphere of the Sun, 5,000C to 6,000C. This heated the Earth’s atmosphere enough in a matter of hours to cause plant life and animal life exposed to this atmosphere to burst into flames from spontaneous combustion. Terrestrial life in such protected places as burrows and caves and some marine life survived these flash fires and the rain of impact ejecta returning to Earth as a vast rain of meteoroids and a pall of dust and gases. The Earth then under went a period of time blanketed in dense clouds of dust, debree, and smoke that blotted out the Sun and brought winter like temperatures for a number of years. After awhile the skies cleared and the biosphere began to adapt to the new landscapes and marine changes to restart the biosphere. All of this occurred between the present ice age and its preceding ice age.
Did it cause global warming at the time? Do we have any educated guesses?
The Earth was already in a long and major decline in temperatures at the time of the iasteroid impact. After the asteroid impact, the long decline in temperatures reversed for a very short while and then resumed their long decline into the present ice age. How much of the brief reversal of the downward trend in temperatures was due to the asteroid impact remains subject to conjecture and study,
HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:45 am
“henry@dirkh
we are not talking abt just one result
it is many results?”
I don’t know. You complained Spencer doesn’t appear here – I just wanted to point out he has his own blog; ask him over there (and I pasted a text that I found talking about the latest spike)
If correlation is causation then …
Some twenty years ago, I began to notice that every time there was a prediction of a snow storm, if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.
I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.
My sympathies to all the people in the NE of the US. This side of the pond in NE England we have below average temperatures and snow forecast. This is the stuff that we were told would be a “rare and exciting event” just 12 years ago. We have had a pretty bad winter here, but never mind AGW can be blamed for that too!
digging out. got just enough of driveway done to park 2 side by side. working on the road. have single lane access but am widening for double. road drifted bad, average 4 feet deep.
did a 600 foot long by 15 feet wide (to expand the single lane) done, took almost 2 hours.
use the equipment shown here
http://www.theconservativevoices.com/uploads/1299289193/gallery_2_501860.jpg
going to take me few days to widen the road, problem is I have more due and then this weekend another storm it looks like.
may have to mount the spare blower to the small tractor and have wife do the cleanup from me climbing banks and moving them.
the lugged tires on garden tractor allow me to go approx 50 deg angle climbing banks.
all while so disabled I can hardly stand or walk. long days LOL
Mark and two Cats says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:11 am
The respondents responding with “radiation” are correct, but not too kind.
This isn’t alpha particles and beta rays kind of radiation, it’s photons, the same sort of radiation you feel coming from the sun, a hot engine block, or a wood stove. Hot sources put out visible light, cooler sources put out infrared light, even really cold objects still radiate longer wavelengths – a frozen turkey does, the Earth’s ice caps do, carbon dioxide gas does. Pretty much every photon that makes out of the Earth’s atmosphere doesn’t come back and is lost to space.
Sen. Marco Rubio (“The Republican Savior”) climbs onboard:
“First of all, the climate is always changing. That’s not the fundamental question. The fundamental question is whether man-made activity is what’s contributing most to it. I understand that people say there is a significant scientific consensus on that issue, but I’ve actually seen reasonable debate on that principle.”
“reasonable debate” – read WotsUpWThat. Good job y’all :))
HenryP says:
February 10, 2013 at 11:38 am
henry@manfred
UAH IS OUT WITH ALL TRENDS
Not only RSS
——————————-
No, very similar to RSS
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/offset:-0.09/plot/rss/trend/offset:-0.09/plot/uah/plot/uah/trend
—————————-
Consider
1. to adjust for different baselines
2. tropospheric temperature trends (RSS, UAH) are not supposed to be the same as ground measured temperature trends, mainly due to hotspot in the tropical troposphere.
(they are supposed to be higher, though in reality they have been lower since 1979. But that is just another issue with climate models and UHI, not satellite data.)
Only got one “bite” when I posted this at thelukewarmersway.com so I thought I’d try it out on you guys.
Global warming will cause the following damage & disruption:
> Sea level rise
> More frequent and more severe drought
> More frequent and more severe flooding
> More frequent and more severe storms
> Species decline e.g. coral polyps, polar bears
> Spread of disease
> Large-scale population displacement
Some other but less credible claims to be found at:
http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/sciencetech/5-deadliest-effects-of-global-warming/276?image=0
How about a factual discussion of the likelihood of each of the above seven consequences?
Mark and Two cats says..heat lost into space.
Its a bit like you are sitting in front of a campfire on a cold frosty night and the stars above are an immensity of twinkling lights.
You find your face gets hot from the radiation from the fire, your back gets cold.
The heat that hits you is radiant heat.As the embers die, so the heat on your face gets less and you put more wood on the fire.
Above you the atmosphere is ‘ feeling’ a bit the same as the campfire.
It has stored heat from the sun the day before, and it is radiating it into space where one day it may reach those stars. It can do this on its own without the help of anything else.
Shameless plug for my new blog post ‘The Power of a Tweet’ and some background to the David Attenborough ‘Africa warms 3.5 degrees’ story: http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2013/02/10/the-power-of-a-tweet-two-examples
=================================================================
Back in the late ’70s I occasionally had the opportunity to stop by an Entenmann’s Bakery Outlet store. They were good. But I don’t think they are to blame for Global Warming. Neither Mann nor Hansen are Danish and both are definitely nuts!
Paul Vaughan says:
February 10, 2013 at 9:40 am
Cat checks out massive snow drift in Coldbrook, Newfoundland, Canada
“massive”???? You all must be from HI. My 4 cats have played with the dog in 25′ drifts. Just normal wx. Nothing to see here. Move along.
Interestingly, there was a Paul Ehrlich who was a real and honest scientist. He was Paul Ehrlich, born 14 March 1854 in Strehlen near Breslau and died 20 August 1915 in Bad Homburg vor der Höhe. He was a German physician and scientist who worked in the fields of hematology, immunology, and chemotherapy. He invented the precursor technique to Gram staining bacteria, and the methods he developed for staining tissue made it possible to distinguish between different type of blood cells, which led to the capability to diagnose numerous blood diseases. His laboratory discovered Arsphenamine (Salvarsan), the first effective medicinal treatment for syphilis, thereby initiating and also naming the concept of chemotherapy.
He was quite unlike his namesake Paul R. Ehrlich.
Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ehrlich
oldfossil says:
February 10, 2013 at 12:43 pm
“Global warming will cause the following damage & disruption:”
Change that “will” to “would, if it proceeded”.
“> Sea level rise”
yes
“> More frequent and more severe drought”
No, not on average. A warmer world is a moister world. The Sahara was green during the Roman Warm period. And during other warm periods. North Africa was the corn chamber of the Roman Empire.
“> More frequent and more severe flooding”
Yes. Warmer = moister.
“> More frequent and more severe storms”
No. Cold places would warm up more than warm places. Says the official CO2AGW doctrine, and makes sense, you need less energy to heat up something cold by one degree than something hot – the hot object loses more energy through radiative losses. (Stefan-Boltzmann law)
Heat differences between poles and lower latitudes would diminish. Less heat difference means weaker storms.
“> Species decline e.g. coral polyps, polar bears”
No. warm places always have more biodiversity than cold places. Species can migrate, often meters suffice (get more in the shade, for instance)
“> Spread of disease”
Why would that be?
“> Large-scale population displacement”
As I said, cold palces would warm up more than warm places. The population displacement that could happen would be a migration to the North where previously unproductive land would become available for agriculture, and into the greening desert belts.
“Corn shortage idles 20 ethanol plants nationwide”
http://news.yahoo.com/corn-shortage-idles-20-ethanol-plants-nationwide-174147906–finance.html
Must be global warming causing the drought…
Solar industry grapples with hazardous wastes
http://news.yahoo.com/solar-industry-grapples-hazardous-wastes-184714679.html
http://news.yahoo.com/solar-industry-grapples-hazardous-wastes-184714679.html
Beware the Big Errors of ‘Big Data’ By Nassim N. Taleb, 02.08.13 9:30 AM
http://www.wired.com/opinion/2013/02/big-data-means-big-errors-people/
We’re more fooled by noise than ever before, and it’s because of a nasty phenomenon called “big data.” With big data, researchers have brought cherry-picking to an industrial level. Modernity provides too many variables, but too little data per variable. So the spurious relationships grow much, much faster than real information. In other words: Big data may mean more information, but it also means more false information.
Big data can tell us what’s wrong, not what’s right.
After watching the snow rise video in the last post, I surfed across this video explaining all the earth orbit variations. It’s a lot more than the ones in the Milankovitch cycles. 9½ minutes.
This solar scientist has God given birth control, his personality. :*) The Spaniards converted the Mayan Calender to Gregorian and got it wrong… omg!!!! ;*)
He’$ 100% sure it’s March 28, not December 21, lol.
Losing his mind. Maybe it’s something in the water in Belgium…
http://translate.google.be/translate?sl=nl&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=nl&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http://www.nieuwsblad.be/article/detail.aspx?articleid=DMF20130118_00438765
http://translate.google.cl/translate?sl=es&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=es&ie=UTF-8&eotf=1&u=http://www.larazon.es/detalle_normal/noticias/478706/sociedad/me-arrepiento-de-haber-anunciado-el-fin-del-mu&act=url
First ever tornado to touch down in Mississippi.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/10/us/mississippi-tornado/index.html
Well, I assume it’s the first ever from the ways it’s taken over CNN. Maybe it’s just the biggest ever. Anyway, definitely caused by CAGW.
Global Warming
Climate Change
Climate Disruption
Ocean Acidifaction
Global Weirding
Climate Chaos
Extreme Weather
The New (and ever renamed) Normal
“dmacleo” – 50 degrees and no roll-over protection?!
Gunga Din says: February 10, 2013 at 12:54 pm
Neo says: February 10, 2013 at 12:10 pm if I could go to the supermarket and find an Entenmann’s Danish with no nuts that it would be a bad storm.
I blame Global Warming on the fact that Entenmann’s stopped making the Danish with no nuts.
=================================================================
Back in the late ’70s I occasionally had the opportunity to stop by an Entenmann’s Bakery Outlet store. They were good. But I don’t think they are to blame for Global Warming. Neither Mann nor Hansen are Danish and both are definitely nuts!
Hansen could be either Danish or Norwegian. Hanson might be Swedish. That’s the consensus view of Scandinavian names.
Mann and Entenmann could be German. Coincidence?
Keith Sketchley says:
February 10, 2013 at 5:29 pm
“dmacleo” – 50 degrees and no roll-over protection?!
****************************************************
thats vertical not sidehill, I do have 2 sidehill protectors. they ache right now 🙂
I also bypass the seat shutoff switch so I can shift weight as needed w/o tractor shutting off.
somewheres I had pics of the front being about 7-8 feet higher than the rear clearing a 10 foot bank.
the rear weight box tends to hit also to offer some warning but I can, and have, uassed the AO in a hurry when needed. the 200 lbs or so of snowblower and accumulated snow on it leverage out enough to help.
I am hard on equipment for some reason 🙂
Leon0112 says:
February 10, 2013 at 10:39 am
Just read a piece saying a group of scientists believe a giant asteroid hitting what is now Mexico caused the extinction of dinosaurs and many other species. Question: Did the asteroid cause an Ice Age?
No, it did not. The impact generated enough heat in the region of the impact creator and somewhat beyond to reach temperatures comparable to the outer atmosphere of the Sun, 5,000C to 6,000C. This heated the Earth’s atmosphere enough in a matter of hours to cause plant life and animal life exposed to this atmosphere to burst into flames from spontaneous combustion. Terrestrial life in such protected places as burrows and caves and some marine life survived these flash fires and the rain of impact ejecta returning to Earth as a vast rain of meteoroids and a pall of dust and gases. The Earth then under went a period of time blanketed in dense clouds of dust, debree, and smoke that blotted out the Sun and brought winter like temperatures for a number of years. After awhile the skies cleared and the biosphere began to adapt to the new landscapes and marine changes to restart the biosphere. All of this occurred between the present ice age and its preceding ice age.
Did it cause global warming at the time? Do we have any educated guesses?
The Earth was already in a long and major decline in temperatures at the time of the iasteroid impact. After the asteroid impact, the long decline in temperatures reversed for a very short while and then resumed their long decline into the present ice age. How much of the brief reversal of the downward trend in temperatures was due to the asteroid impact remains subject to conjecture and study,