Readers may recall the story Global Warming?……. It was warmer in Sydney in 1790 by Craig Kelly, MP in NSW Australia in response to some of the recent alarmist caterwauling in the press about the hot summer in Australia being a sign of ‘global warming’. He writes in with an update regarding criticisms by Steven Mosher regarding instrument calibration.
Kelly writes:
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Hi Anthony,
I’ve done a bit more research on the temperature measurements recorded by Tench in 1790 that I thought you might be interested in.
Firstly, it appears the measurements were taken in a purpose built observatory which stood at location of the current pylons of the Sydney Harbor Bridge. The Observatory was built and run by William Dawes.
There is a detail description of the Observatory in letter sent back to England. The Observatory had two thermometers not one. These were loaned to the First Fleet by the Board of Longitude.
One was made by Nairne & Blunt and the other one by Ramsden.
When the First Fleet stopped at Cape Town on the way to Sydney, Dawes refers to calibrating the instruments. William Dawes’ journal actually mentions making a comparison between the two thermometers, noting;
‘‘I observe when the thermometers have been long at nearly the same height that they agree.’’
When both Dawes and Tench returned to England at the end of 1791 (after having their requests to stay denied) they took the thermometers with them and returned them to the Board of Longitude.
Both Tench and Dawes were remarkable men, they would have done everything in their power to ensure the measurements were as accurate a possible. Gergis et al. (2009) has stated that William Dawes’ data is commensurate with present-day meteorological measurements.
Add this to the numerous ancedotes of bird and bat deaths, and I think even the most skeptical would have to agree that records are quite accurate.
Regards,
Craig Kelly
Federal Member for Hughes
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Some additions by Anthony:
The abstract of Gergis et al 2009:
This study presents the first analysis of the weather conditions experienced at
Sydney Cove, New South Wales, during the earliest period of the European settlement
of Australia. A climate analysis is presented for January 1788 to December
1791 using daily temperature and barometric pressure observations recorded by
William Dawes in Sydney Cove and a temperature record kept by William Bradley
on board the HMS Sirius anchored in Port Jackson (Sydney Harbour) in the early
months of the First Fleet’s arrival in Australia. Remarkably, the records appear
comparable with modern day measurements taken from Sydney Observatory
Hill, displaying similar daily variability, a distinct seasonal cycle and considerable
inter-annual variability. To assess the reliability of these early weather data, they were cross-verified with other data sources, including anecdotal observations recorded in First Fleet documentary records and independent palaeoclimate reconstructions. Some biases in the temperature record, likely associated with the location of the thermometer, have been identified. Although the 1788–1791 period experienced a marked La Niña to El Niño fluctuation according to palaeoclimatic data, the cool and warm intervals in Sydney over this period cannot be conclusively linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions. This study demonstrates that there are excellent opportunities to expand our description of pre-20th century climate variability in Australia while contributing culturally significant material to the emerging field of Australian environmental history.
An account from Dawes journal extracted from Gergis et al 2009:
By September 1790, the settlers were fast realising just
how unpredictable Australia’s weather could be. Watkin
Tench remarks ‘it is changeable beyond any other I ever
heard of… clouds, storms and sunshine pass in rapid succession’.
But by the middle of 1790, Tench (1793) describes
the impact of dry conditions on the colony’s food supplies:
‘vegetables are scarce…owing to want of rain. I do not think
that all the showers of the last four months put together,
would make twenty-four hours rain. Our farms, what with
this and a poor soil, are in wretched condition. My winter
crop of potatoes, which I planted in days of despair (March
and April last), turned out very badly when I dug them about
two months back. Wheat returned so poorly last harvest’
(Tench 1793).
It appears that the summer of 1790–91 was a hot and dry
summer. Tench comments that, at times, it ‘felt like the blast
of a heated oven’. He goes on to describe the heat endured
during summer: ‘even [the] heat [of December 1790] was
judged to be far exceeded in the latter end of the following
February [1791], when the north-west wind again set in, and
blew with great violence for three days. At Sydney, it fell
short by one degree of [December 1790] but at Rose Hill [Parramatta],
it was allowed, by every person, to surpass all that
they had before felt, either there or in any other part of the
world…it must, however, have been intense, from the effects
it produced. An immense flight of bats driven before the
wind, covered all the trees around the settlement, whence
they every moment dropped dead or in a dying state, unable
longer to endure the burning state of the atmosphere. Nor
did the ‘perroquettes’, though tropical birds, bear it better.
The ground was strewn with them in the same condition as
the bats’ (Tench 1793).
Gosh, “climate disruption” in 1790? It’s worse than we thought!
List of Instruments proper for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay
Other related items include two lists that detail the instruments Dawes needed for his colonial observatory. ‘List of Instruments proper for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay’ contains a great many items, but as the Board of Longitude — of which Banks was an ex-officio member by virtue of his position as President of the Royal Society — did not have sufficient instruments on hand, most of these were eventually crossed out.
Note the “two thermometers” in the list above.
List of instruments to be lent by the Board of Longitude for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay
The ‘List of instruments to be lent by the Board of Longitude for making astronomical Observations at Botany Bay’ is a much shorter list; it served as a clean copy of what was actually available from the Board of Longitude.
Here is a photo from the Powerhouse Museum in Sydney.
Thermometer with case, glass / mercury / metal / wood / shagreen, Nairne and Blunt, England, 1770-1800
Read more: http://www.powerhousemuseum.com/collection/database/?irn=68006#ixzz2IKiUeerQ
Under Creative Commons License: Attribution Non-Commercial
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Good backup to the original posting. Mosher’s doubts seemed to ignore the dead animals as well as cast doubt on the instrumental obs. Hopefully he’ll give a followup on his position.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21072347
The BBC are saying that a new record of 45.8 deg C has just happened. Well above the 42.8 deg C in 1790.
Again i say the Old Ones knew what they were doing.We think too highly of ourselves..
“Evolved.” “Intelligent.” “Schmart”. (tip o the bearskin to the Geico “Caveman” ads..)
When i see any of those words in an ad I turn off…
Careful, scientific, measurement by people who knew what they were doing….
tallbloke says:
January 18, 2013 at 5:53 am
I’m sorry tallbloke, but I have very serious doubts that those dead animals were properly calibrated! After all, what did they know about dead animals back then? Today, we have sophisticated observing equipment and computer models which can tell us if those animals are REALLY dead with MUCH higher precision than was possible back in the late 1700s!!
/sarc
Although not identifying Sydney itself, Jo Nova’s map shows an awful lot of maxima over 50C -and mostly in the early part of the 20th century or the back end of the 19th century…
Of course, Sydney has several orders of magnitude more asphalt and has had many human-caused changes to the local environment since then.
Urban heat island?
Sorry, gergis?
But Anthony, I was just repeating your doubts about all records prior to the introduction of the CRS?
remember? or did you forget that you expresssed that doubt about all records prior to the introduction of the CRS?
REPLY: This Gergis et al is not the same paper that was destroyed by McIntyre. Big difference. Taken in toto, yes there are reasons to be concerned about exposures prior to the introduction of the Stevenon Screen. In this case, we have metadata, eyewitness accounts from a credible observer, and a peer reviewed paper which investigates the temperature claim and suggests is is reasonably accurate. There’s a distinct difference between all pre CRS exposures and one this well documented and studied. – Anthony
“When both Dawes and Tench returned to England at the end of 1791 (after having their requests to stay denied) they took the thermometers with them and returned them to the Board of Longitude.”
I believe the Board of longitude was based at the Royal Naval College where the National Maritime Museum is now based. There are two Ramsden thermometers in their archives, dated to circa 1785. I’m not saying that one of these is the very one that was given back in 1791 but these two examples could be tested against a modern thermometer and seeing as there are two, they could be tested and then calibrated against each other. This would prove a) their absolute accuracy and b) the consistency of reliability of manufacture. Here is the ‘collections search page’ with the two Ramsden thermometers:
http://collections.rmg.co.uk/collections/objects/43029.html
If it defaults to just the search page then you need to type in ‘thermometer Ramsden’ and it should give two examples numbered NAV0817 and NAV0818.
I tried ‘Nairne and Blunt’ and got nothing. Also, there is a request for additional information about these thermometers at the bottom of the page presumably as to provenance. There must have been hundreds of these made but they might have been slightly more inclined to keep one that had been physically handed back to them from such an important voyage (the first settlement expedition) and its manufacture is dated to circa 1785, two years or less before they set sail and one year or less before they began preparations. In other words, the expedition would have almost certainly acquired a brand new Ramsden thermometer and therefore one of this exact date. I’d like to research this further but I’m supposed to be working!
Scute
Important to stress it was no common heatwave, and it was not just a matter of temps. It was the nor’wester, a late winter/early spring pattern, occurring in high summer. When the heat and inland wind are both strong enough there is no respite, not even on the ocean’s edge, and it can keep up for days. I’ve experienced it full blown twice, in the early eighties and after 2000: it’s a killer. I’ve also experienced the higher heat of 1960 and 2004 (and last Saturday here on the midcoast), but the other is much more deadly. What Tench describes sounds even more lethal and dehydrating than the extreme nor’wester events of my lifetime. (The heatwave of 1938-39 remains our worst natural disaster in terms of lives lost, but I don’t know what kinds of winds or conditions exacerbated the heat.)
The two friends, Tench and Dawes, were extraordinarily conscientious men, in their different ways: Dawes was an idealist, Tench was a compassionate pragmatist. They really were great guys, who took plenty of flak for their good natures. They were also intrepid. Do I trust the journal? Every line and word!
Thanks to Craig and Anthony for highlighting this important document.
Richard Sharpe says: January 18, 2013 at 6:38 am
Of course, Sydney has several orders of magnitude more asphalt and has had many human-caused changes to the local environment since then.
Urban heat island?
=================================
Yes, there is the uban heat effect, which adds 2-3 C. But there is also the global-warmer finger-fiddle effect, as in James Hansen’s GISS, documented in an post below. Every Australian global-warmer is a would-be James Hansen, and that desperate crowd has control of the knobs and buttons.
Come election time, it will be “good riddance” to the global-warmers.
Just a note on accuracy of instruments and measurements. From my reading about the astronomers and surveyors of that time, there was a culture of extreme perfectionism borne of an acute eye for detail and desire for certainty, coupled with the fact that every waking hour was devoted to furthering ones service to God and Country. This was instilled in the mindset of scientists and above all, astronomers, of the late 18th C by a legacy of great work coming from luminaries of the Royal Society ever since 1660. People such as Hooke, Flamsteed, Wren, Newton and Boyle were well known at the time for their exquisite sensitivity to detail and, moreover, attention to detail when taking measurements.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that Dawes never made a mistake but I doubt if he could have got to where he was without inheriting that mantle of scientific responsibility to a large extent. He was after all revered for his surveying and map-making skills. Surveying in those days was one heck of a lot more fiddly than working out the most accurate way of siting and reading a thermometer. You just had to have that mindset to get on in these particular walks in life.
Wonderful stuff!
Weather,history,science,geography and a man with the handle `Watkins Tench`
My cup runneth over.Don`t ever stop.
Does anyone take Mosher seriously?
mpainter says: January 18, 2013 at 7:12 am
“Come election time, it will be “good riddance” to the global-warmers.”
I really, really hope you are right. But I recall similar comments from many US commenters early in 2012.
Didn’t work out too well, unfortunately.
The English were serious about exploration and conquest of new lands. They wanted to know how suitable for settlement these lands were. That’s why they frequently had scientists aboard on voyages to new lands and why careful records were kept. It doesn’t surprise me to learn that these thermometers were relatively precise instruments.
I’m presently reading a book on the Polk presidency and the Mexican War. The US almost went to war with England over the Oregon territory in 1845. It would have been the third war with England in 80 years. Conquest of land was big business at the time. Something over which the nation would shed the blood of its young men. If they were fighting for land, they needed to know everything about those lands.
“Does anyone take Mosher seriously?”
I do. Certainly Gleick does.
Mosher acted the same way with the Danish maps showing the receding Arctic sea ice in the 1930s: “no satellite” was in substance the argument, forgetting that most marine maps were charted quite precisely even at that period, affording at least a good general feel for the situation. It is reasonnable to not worry about a few 1000km2 in the Arctic the same way even 1C does not really matter in this whole temperature row. Mind you if that degre C really matters, then it would show how CAGW extraordinary claims are in the end about variations well within the noise. Pierre Morel, founder of the LMD in Paris said just that in a conference a few years ago…
Interesting to note that in the thread on ENSO it is supposed that a permanent El Nino condition probably persisted during ice ages. What about Little Ones? I can interpret this to mean that when things are cold at the poles the heat is shifted towards the equator and the equatorial belt runs hotter without breaking into La Nina conditions.
My point is that during the Little Ice Age, was it perhaps hotter than usual in Middle Earth? And is modern polar heating (such as it is) primarily the result of equatorial heat redistribution – note that Darwin has been cooling since about 1940. The key variable may be ocean-based heat pumps rather than solar or cloud-based variation, though I accept both as co-contributors.
Steven Mosher says:
January 18, 2013 at 6:47 am
Sorry, gergis?
But Anthony, I was just repeating your doubts about all records prior to the introduction of the CRS?
remember? or did you forget that you expresssed that doubt about all records prior to the introduction of the CRS?
Don’t be obtuse, at least I hope that’s your problem.
@Steven Mosher
Good to see scepticism in action. It is good to question until evidence allows a conclusion to be drawn and this new evidence would suggest the data are valid?
martinbrumby says:
January 18, 2013 at 7:48 am
mpainter says: January 18, 2013 at 7:12 am
“Come election time, it will be “good riddance” to the global-warmers.”
I really, really hope you are right. But I recall similar comments from many US commenters early in 2012.
Didn’t work out too well, unfortunately.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There are a lot of rumblings of voter fraud on the internet. Areas were there was 108% turn out or the like, or areas where 100% of the votes cast turned into votes for Obama in swing states, Romney winning in every single Photo ID state and a lot of other scuttlebutt. You can just do a search to see what I mean.
We will just have to see how it plays out, since it means nothing until it reaches the courts.
However it should be taken as a warning by Australians to make sure the elections are honest.
Cuccinelli is the State Attorney General who went after Mike Mann.
sunshinehours1 says:
January 18, 2013 at 7:30 am
Does anyone take Mosher seriously?
– – –
When I don’t follow my own advice and I read a Mosher comment, I usually regret it.
“‘I observe when the thermometers have been long at nearly the same height that they agree.’’
TWO thermometers – listen these guys have taken better measurements than we have and would never think to fiddle – sadly, they simply don’t make scientists like that anymore. We could do worse than to use their and contemporaries’ readings as a basis from which to anchor our records.
mosomoso says:
January 18, 2013 at 7:03 am
“The heatwave of 1938-39 remains our worst natural disaster in terms of lives lost..” (Australia).
We better use this as an anchor, too before the “Dirty thirties” gets further cooled and greened by Hansen et al.
I greatly enjoy these historical reports and do not question the desire to show the correctness of the measurements. I’m sure it was extremely hot then and that it is extremely hot now. But, if it is a degree or two warmer there now, so what? It shows only that, nothing more. As someone has already mention the area was not then but is now a large metropolitan area. So assume the urbanization has shifted the mean temperature up by a fraction. What then should we expect? We should expect high temperature records to be set. Luboš Motl, wrote on the issue of record temperatures in a post last March. It is a fun read.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/record-temperatures-and-female-fields.html
~~~~~
In contrast to hot: Locally we are in the midst of what is called a silver frost (aka radiation frost). [88% R.H., calm, -5°C / 23°F.]
Nothing against Sydney, but Sydney is not the globe.