Slingo Pretends She Knows Why It’s Been So Wet!

By Paul Homewood

Following release of provisional rainfall data for the UK, showing that 2012 has been one of the wettest on record, Professor Julia Slingo, chief scientist at the Met Office, tells us

The trend towards more extreme rainfall events is one we are seeing around the world, in countries such as India and China, and now potentially here in the UK”, adding that “the long-term trend towards wetter weather is likely to continue as global air temperatures rise. “

Leaving aside the fact that the Met Office have also been warning us about droughts lately, let’s take a look at some of the forecasts they were making during 2012.

Each month they issue a 3-month outlook. Unfortunately the ones issued prior to September have disappeared from their archives, but I had already saved the April-June, and also the Sep-Nov forecasts. Along with the Oct-Dec ones, what were the Met forecasting as the year progressed?

On 23rd March, they predicted “The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April/May/June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.”

RESULT – RAINFALL TOTALS WERE 176%, 94% AND 203% OF NORMAL IN APRIL, MAY AND JUNE RESPECTIVELY.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/p/i/A3-layout-precip-AMJ.pdf

On 24th August, their forecast for September “weakly favours below normal values”.

RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 117% OF NORMAL IN SEPTEMBER.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/e/A3-plots-precip-SON.pdf

On 21st September, they said “For UK-averaged rainfall the predicted probabilities favour below normal rainfall during October. For the period October-November-December as a whole the range of forecasts also favours lower than average rainfall”

RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 101% OF NORMAL IN OCTOBER.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/h/g/A3-plots-precip-OND.pdf

On 24th October, they forecast “Predictions for UK-mean precipitation for both November and the November-December-January period are similar to climatology

RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 111% OF NORMAL IN NOVEMBER.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/6/A3-plots-precip-NDJ.pdf

And on 20th November, “Predictions for UK-mean precipitation for December show a slight shift towards below-normal values – consistent with negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions”

RESULT – RAINFALL WAS 150% OF NORMAL IN DECEMBER.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/j/i/A3_plots-precip-DJF.pdf

So for the seven months between April and December, that forecasts are available for, the Met Office forecast drier than normal conditions in six, and normal in the seventh. They failed to get any month correct, and for the seven months in question, rainfall averaged 36% above normal levels, (which are based on 1981-2010.)

1981 - 2010 anomaly : 2012 average : Rainfall

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomalygraphs/2012/2012_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

It is very kind of Julia to tell us now that she knew all along it was likely to be wetter. It is just a pity, though, that she forgot to tell us at the time.

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Matt G
January 8, 2013 2:33 pm

Gareth Phillips says:
January 7, 2013 at 9:51 am
“It’s been 4 years since we had a real summer”
The last real summer in the UK occurred during 2006, so that’s now nearly 7 years.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2006/14/2006_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2006/14/2006_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2006/14/2006_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
The summer of 2009 wasn’t as poor compared with recently, but still nothing to write home about.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/14/2009_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/14/2009_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/14/2009_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif
This summer was quite dull and wet away from far SE England, whereas Northern Scotland was just wet.

Nigel Alcazar
January 8, 2013 2:53 pm

One day they will go back to proper forcasting and take out the bias they have in there computer programs.in thecmean time this once respected prganisation will be the jpke it has become.

Rick K
January 11, 2013 6:12 am

You may (or may not – it’s OK) remember a song from the mid-60s called “Ringo.”
“Ringo” became a hit single performed by the Canadian actor, Lorne Greene, in 1964. The song tells the tale of a lawman and his relationship with a gunfighter he had nursed back to health.
“Ringo” was written by Don Robertson and Hal Blair.
As a result of all this… YOU… get a poem. I thank Lorne Greene and Julia Slingo for their inspiration.
First, to refresh your memory: “Ringo” lyrics as performed by Lorne Greene.
Followed by my original composition, “Slingo,” performed by no one.
————–
Ringo (by Don Robertson and Hal Blair)
He lay face down in the desert sand
Clutching his six-gun in his hand
Shot from behind, I thought he was dead
But under his heart was an ounce of lead
But a spark still burned so I used my knife
And late that night I saved the life of Ringo
I nursed him till the danger passed
The days went by, he mended fast
Then from dawn till setting sun
He practiced with that deadly gun
And hour on hour I watched in awe
No human being could match the draw of Ringo
One day we rode the mountain crest
And I went east and he went west
I took to law and wore a star
While he spread terror near and far
With lead and blood he gained such fame
All through the West they feared the name of Ringo
I knew someday I’d face the test
Which one of us would be the best
And sure enough the word came down
That he was holed up in the town
I left the posse out in the street
And I went in alone to meet Ringo
They said my speed was next to none
But my lightning draw had just begun
When I heard a blast that stung my wrist
The gun went flying from my fist
And I was looking down the bore
Of the deadly .44 of Ringo
They say that was the only time
That anyone had seen him smile
He slowly lowered his gun and then
He said to me “We’re even, friend”
And so at last I understood
That there was still a spark of good in Ringo
I blocked the path of his retreat
He turned and stepped into the street
A dozen guns spit fire and lead
A moment later, he lay dead
The town began to shout and cheer
Nowhere was there shed a tear for Ringo
The story spread throughout the land
That I had beaten Ringo’s hand
And it was just the years, they say
That made me put my guns away
But on his grave they can’t explain
The tarnished star above the name of Ringo
——————
Slingo (by Rick K)
She said straight-up the sceptered land
Would soon turn into desert sand
She heard others say global warming was dead
But under her skull was a brain of lead
My brain burned as I grabbed my knife
And was sorely tempted to free my life from Slingo
I listened to her till the urge had passed
But listen hard because she talks fast
Then from dawn till setting sun
She spoke of relentless deadly sun
And hour on hour I watched in awe
No human alive could build a house of straw like Slingo
One day we met on a mountain crest
We both did what we thought best
I took to science and used my brain
While she spread terror for selfish gain
With models and forecasts she gained such fame
All through the West they fear the name of Slingo
I knew someday I’d face the test
Would brains or models be the best
And sure enough the temps came down
And water flowed all through the town
I watched my car float down the street
And I went in alone to meet Slingo
They said my brain was next to none
And my cogent thought had just begun
When I felt a blast that stung my wrists
As she beat her chest with both her fists
Clutching her forecast in her hand
“Britain will be an isle of sand!” said Slingo
They say that was the only time
That anyone had seen her smile
She slowly lowered her arms and then
She said to me “This drought won’t end”
And so at last I understood
Talking sense would do no good with Slingo
“Julia!” I said, “Your forecast’s a bust!
It’s the only thing that’s turned to dust”
A dozen taxis flowed down the road
She hopped on one as would a toad
The Met began to shout and cheer
They alone offered to buy a beer for Slingo
Julia’s drought spread throughout the land
As rain-soaked Britons could barely stand
And it was just her hubris, they say
That made me want to run away
I screamed, “Julia! On you is the onus!”
But she ignored me and went off to collect the bonus of Slingo

Brian H
January 19, 2013 4:17 am

Yes, Joe, accountability is what’s missing. And not preparing for the Cold is going to kill people. That one sentence should be repeated loudly until some of the public get worried, and start complaining loudly. I see no other option.