Myths and Facts about Global Warming

From Friends of Science. Be sure to visit their page and bookmark it.

COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

MYTH 1:  Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate.

FACT:  The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, warming to 1941, cooling to 1964, warming to 1998 and cooling through 2011. The warming rate from 1964 to 1998 was the same as the previous warming from 1911 to 1941. Satellites, weather balloons and ground stations all show cooling since 2001. The mild warming of 0.6 to 0.8 C over the 20th century is well within the natural variations recorded in the last millennium. The ground station network suffers from an uneven distribution across the globe; the stations are preferentially located in growing urban and industrial areas (“heat islands”), which show substantially higher readings than adjacent rural areas (“land use effects”). Two science teams have shown that correcting the surface temperature record for the effects of urban development would reduce the warming trend over land from 1980 by half.

There has been no catastrophic warming recorded.

MYTH 2:  The “hockey stick” graph proves that the earth has experienced a steady, very gradual temperature decrease for 1000 years, then recently began a sudden increase.

FACT:  Significant changes in climate have continually occurred throughout geologic time. For instance, the Medieval Warm Period, from around 1000 to1200 AD (when the Vikings farmed on Greenland) was followed by a period known as the Little Ice Age. Since the end of the 17th Century the “average global temperature” has been rising at the low steady rate mentioned above; although from 1940 – 1970 temperatures actually dropped, leading to a Global Cooling scare.

The “hockey stick”, a poster boy of both the UN’s IPCC and Canada’s Environment Department, ignores historical recorded climatic swings, and has now also been proven to be flawed and statistically unreliable as well. It is a computer construct and a faulty one at that.

 

MYTH 3:  Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100 years, adding to the Greenhouse effect, thus warming the earth.

FACT:  Carbon dioxide levels have indeed changed for various reasons, human and otherwise, just as they have throughout geologic time. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the CO2 content of the atmosphere has increased. The RATE of growth during this period has also increased from about 0.2% per year to the present rate of about 0.4% per year,which growth rate has now been constant for the past 25 years. However, there is no proof that CO2 is the main driver of global warming. As measured in ice cores dated over many thousands of years, CO2 levels move up and down AFTER the temperature has done so, and thus are the RESULT OF, NOT THE CAUSE of warming. Geological field work in recent sediments confirms this causal relationship. There is solid evidence that, as temperatures move up and down naturally and cyclically through solar radiation, orbital and galactic influences, the warming surface layers of the earth’s oceans expel more CO2 as a result.

 

MYTH 4:  CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas.

FACT:  Greenhouse gases form about 3% of the atmosphere by volume. They consist of varying amounts, (about 97%) of water vapour and clouds, with the remainder being gases like CO2, CH4, Ozone and N2O, of which carbon dioxide is the largest amount. Hence, CO2 constitutes about 0.039% of the atmosphere. While the minor gases are more effective as “greenhouse agents” than water vapour and clouds, the latter are overwhelming the effect by their sheer volume and – in the end – are thought to be responsible for 75% of the “Greenhouse effect”. (See here) At current concentrations, a 3% change of water vapour in the atmosphere would have the same effect as a 100% change in CO2.

Those attributing climate change to CO2 rarely mention these important facts.

MYTH 5:  Computer models verify that CO2 increases will cause significant global warming.

FACT:  The computer models assume that CO2 is the primary climate driver, and that the Sun has an insignificant effect on climate. You cannot use the output of a model to verify or prove its initial assumption – that is circular reasoning and is illogical. Computer models can be made to roughly match the 20th century temperature rise by adjusting many input parameters and using strong positive feedbacks. They do not “prove” anything. Also, computer models predicting global warming are incapable of properly including the effects of the sun, cosmic rays and the clouds. The sun is a major cause of temperature variation on the earth surface as its received radiation changes all the time, This happens largely in cyclical fashion. The number and the lengths in time of sunspots can be correlated very closely with average temperatures on earth, e.g. the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Varying intensity of solar heat radiation affects the surface temperature of the oceans and the currents. Warmer ocean water expels gases, some of which are CO2. Solar radiation interferes with the cosmic ray flux, thus influencing the amount ionized nuclei which control cloud cover.

MYTH 6:  The UN proved that man–made CO2 causes global warming.

FACT:  In a 1996 report by the UN on global warming, two statements were deleted from the final draft. Here they are:

1)     “None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute  the observed climate changes to increases in greenhouse gases.”

2)     “No study to date has positively attributed all or part of the climate change to man–made causes”

To the present day there is still no scientific proof that man-made CO2 causes significant global warming.

MYTH 7:  CO2 is a pollutant.

FACT:  This is absolutely not true. Nitrogen forms 80% of our atmosphere. We could not live in 100% nitrogen either. Carbon dioxide is no more a pollutant than nitrogen is.  CO2 is essential to life on earth. It is necessary for plant growth since increased CO2 intake as a result of increased atmospheric concentration causes many trees and other plants to grow more vigorously. Unfortunately, the Canadian Government has included  CO2 with a number of truly toxic and noxious substances listed by the Environmental Protection Act, only as their means to politically control it.

MYTH 8: Global warming will cause more storms and other weather extremes.

FACT:   There is no scientific or statistical evidence whatsoever that supports such claims on a global scale.  Regional variations may occur. Growing insurance and infrastructure repair costs, particularly in coastal areas, are sometimes claimed to be the result of increasing frequency and severity of storms, whereas in reality they are a function of increasing population density, escalating development value, and ever more media reporting.

MYTH 9:  Receding glaciers and the calving of ice shelves are proof of global warming.

FACT:  Glaciers have been  receding and growing cyclically for hundreds of years. Recent glacier melting is a consequence of coming out of the very cool period of the Little Ice Age. Ice shelves have been breaking off for centuries. Scientists know of at least 33 periods of glaciers growing and then retreating. It’s normal. Besides, glacier’s health is dependent as much on precipitation as on temperature.

MYTH 10:  The earth’s poles are warming; polar ice caps are breaking up and melting and the sea level rising.

FACT:  The earth is variable. The western Arctic may be getting somewhat warmer, due to cyclic events in the Pacific Ocean, but the Eastern Arctic and Greenland are getting colder. The small Palmer Peninsula of Antarctica is getting warmer, while the main Antarctic continent is actually cooling. Ice thicknesses are increasing both on Greenland and in Antarctica.

Sea level monitoring in the Pacific (Tuvalu) and Indian Oceans (Maldives) has shown no sign of any sea level rise.

More FACTS and MYTHS?  See what Professor deFreitas has to say. Click here.

0 0 votes
Article Rating

Discover more from Watts Up With That?

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.

167 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
kadaka (KD Knoebel)
November 21, 2012 6:38 am

From CodeTech on November 21, 2012 at 5:35 am:

Hmmm – several comments to Davidmhoffer, but (so far) none have used the magic word: INSULATOR.

Incidentally I don’t wear sweaters, however I wear leather jackets. (…)

The only way the clothing analogy can possibly hold is if the sweater or jacket has openings at the polar regions (which they do), or occasionally large holes open up to allow heat to escape (mimicking storms and such).

But you have to identify the TYPE of insulating property.
Many coats and jackets have a tough “windproof” outer layer, preventing wind chill. Your leather jacket “warms” you by getting rid of wind chill heat losses.
Sweaters, like many coats and jackets, including the insulated “windproof” ones, are fluffy. They have at least one layer of insulating dry air, retained by assorted fibers and other materials.
If you sweat enough to get the fluffy stuff wet, then you’ve made a path for increased heat loss, similar to increased heat loss from thunderstorms.
There is no planetary GHE equivalent to a “windproof” outer layer.
So the clothing analogy holds as far as it can.

November 21, 2012 7:06 am

Science_Author:
“Consider a long radiation-proof and perfectly insulated cylinder full of air. Shake it well so that the internal temperature is uniform from top to bottom. Then stand it on end and wait for equilibrium. What happens is that, as molecules fall they lose potential energy and gain equivalent kinetic energy. But temperature is a measure of mean KE, so, if a region of air somehow loses height in the cylinder, it will end up with a higher temperature.”
Although I did not agree with the logic of Robert Brown’s post here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/24/refutation-of-stable-thermal-equilibrium-lapse-rates/, I am convinced by a paper mentioned in the attendant comments, namely, Velasco, S., Roman, F.L. and White, J.A., 1995, Eur. J. Phys. v17, 43-44, that, contrary to what I believe you are here contending, there would be no detectable lapse rate at equilibrium. (Several commenters on that post interpreted Velasco et al. as holding that there would be no temperature difference at all between the gas column’s top and bottom, whereas my interpretation is that a difference in mean molecular translational kinetic energy would indeed exist between two levels but that it would be undetectable in practice, and, the Uncertainty Principle being what it is, perhaps even in principle.)
In any event, you may find the arguments elicited by that post interesting. I know I did.

more soylent green!
November 21, 2012 7:35 am

Can we have a once-and-for-all (at least until the science changes) discussion on the following:
Regardless of the misnomer, does the Greenhouse Effect exist on earth?
Is CO2 really a GHG? Does it work as a GHG in the earth’s atmosphere?
Does it really take an exponential increase in CO2 to double the warming from CO2 (assuming both of the above are true)?
Yes, I’m aware nothing is settled in science, but these topics keep coming up and are repeatedly rehashed but I never see any new research being conducted or cited on any of these.
Thanks

markx
November 21, 2012 7:36 am

rgbatduke says: November 20, 2012 at 2:49 pm
says: “…….no evidence of any sea level rise” in a couple of places. ……… There is overwhelmingly sound evidence of global sea level rise. At the whopping rate of roughly 3 mm/year, on average, nearly constant over nearly 100 years. That is 30 cm a century, around a foot a century. This not “no” SLR, it is “unimportant” SLR — so far. Why not state it correctly, and back it up with the simple tide gauge/satellite data? ……” Cites: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Current_sea_level_rise
And bear in mind the satellite data is perhaps even more likely to be in error than the tide gauge data, with the latter only registering an average rise of 1.7 mm per year (range up to 2.7 mm/yr) in the last half of the century. See http://ilrs.gsfc.nasa.gov/docs/GRASP_COSPAR_paper.pdf re some of the problems with current satellite data.
Douglas 1997 (paywalled but here it is in Wikipedia) may be the best estimate of tidal gauges: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Recent_Sea_Level_Rise.png
Douglas 1997 shows about 18 cm in 120 years, ie 1.5 mm per year … this using tidal gauges selected for the following criteria:
1. Each record should be at least 60 years in length
2. Not be located at collisional plate boundaries
3. At least 80% complete
4. Show reasonable agreement at low frequencies with nearby gauges sampling the same water mass
5. Not be located in regions subject to large post-glacial rebound

TimO
November 21, 2012 7:52 am

Facts?? They don’t need (or want) facts; they have the Temple of Gore to pray to….

Roger Knights
November 21, 2012 8:15 am

MikeB says:
November 21, 2012 at 3:39 am
… C02 concentration is higher now than at any time in the past 800,000 years it is probably due to the burning of fossil fuel.

Don’t the smaller leaf stomata over the past few thousand years indicate that CO2 was higher then? I’ve seen it argued that the ice cores don’t measure CO2 as accurately as stomata, owing to diffusion, etc.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
November 21, 2012 8:18 am

Sasha requests on November 21, 2012 at 6:29 am:

Can someone please nail the one lie that’s always trotted out by the carbon dioxide religionists:
“98% of scientists agree that man-made CO2 is causing catastropic global warming”?

Already done.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/about-that-overwhelming-98-number-of-scientists-consensus/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/what-else-did-the-97-of-scientists-say/ – long detailed breakdown
Short version with more links:
http://sustainableoregon.com/97percen_%20of_scientists.html

davidmhoffer
November 21, 2012 8:34 am

Mike Jackson;
Why not go and read Postma’s paper instead of simply sneering?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Because I’ve read a considerable amount of their drivel on their site already, and I’ve debated the matter in excessive detail with them before. In fact, I suspect their disciple in this thread is someone I’ve debated before under a different name. Makes the same mistakes and comes up with the same circular arguments. I’ve tried to provide a couple of simple explanations that prove my point without going into excessively complex arguments. The Earth is hotter than the moon and gets the same insolation. End of discussion. The reasoning presented by this crew of magicians to explain this defies an incredible amounts of known physics, and would take many hours of writing to debunk in totality. I’ve already been there, done that, know how much time it takes, and have neither the time nor the energy right now. The last time I did it their rebuttals descended to things like “well, what if someone was standing in front of the door of the room and that changed the measurements?”
In this thread alone it was first proposed that temp could be maintained without energy input, then when I pointed out that a subsequent point by the same person required energy input, the story changed to say that energy input was required after all. The rebuttal to my sweater example has sufficient errors in it that responding to them in full would take at least four or five hours of my time. Knowing that it will end up with some lame retort like “oh yeah, well what if someone was standing in the doorway” I’m just not interested. Further, there are several excellent articles on this forum already explaining exactly how the GHE works, search for the series by Ira Glickstein. I also recommend the various articles and comments by rgbatduke (Robert Brown) in his responses to the science presented by Nikolov and Zeller. S_A’s arguments above share a lot of N&Z’s arguments some of which have merit, but as a whole picture, suffer from the clear criticisms pointed out by rgbatduke which are already available on this site, and which deal with the matter in the kind of detail required to continue this discussion. Half truths are the most difficult to debunk because they are half true, but debunked they have been, just read the articles I’ve pointed you at.
REPLY: Ditto, that. – Anthony

JJ
November 21, 2012 8:58 am

Donald L. Klipstein says:
Since 1959, nature has been *removing* CO2 from the atmosphere. See:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/global-carbon-budget-2010. So, it appears
unlikely that the modern atmospheric CO2 increase is mainly a result of
warming.

Making pronouncements based on an alleged carbon budget that isn’t even closed, let alone provably attributed, is just silly.

November 21, 2012 9:33 am

david,
your debunking of the skydragons is commendable. Personally I think they should join the list of topics that are not welcomed here, like chemtrails, especially since they use fake names to appear in several places to promote the nonsense.

Roger Knights
November 21, 2012 9:39 am

Sasha says:
November 21, 2012 at 6:29 am
Can someone please nail the one lie that’s always trotted out by the carbon dioxide religionists:
“98% of scientists agree that man-made CO2 is causing catastropic global warming”?

Here’s a survey of all the surveys, at Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists'_views_on_climate_change
The two 97% surveys referred to are Doran and Anderegg. The flaw in the first (“Doran”) survey was that it asked innocuous, hence irrelevant questions that skeptics would endorse, namely that the Earth has been warming and that “human activities” have played a significant role in the warming. Here are quotes from a few WUWTers on the topic:

Richard M says:
July 7, 2010 at 5:37 am
Zilla, the 97% number [from Doran] includes all those that believe that CO2 causes some warming. That includes Lindzen and about 95% of all skeptics. That’s right, most of the people who post here also fall into the 97% number. The number you fail to understand is that ONLY 41% believe in the “C” in CAGW. And, the survey itself was taken before ClimateGate so I’d expect that number would be less today.
—————-
Poptech says:
November 17, 2012 at 9:24 pm
The paper used in the show is the Anderegg et al. paper whose methodology is not reproducible due to the Google Scholar illiteracy of the authors,
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/06/22/lawrence-solomon-google-scholar-at-the-academy/
Search results from Google Scholar cannot be used in scientific studies because Google Scholar is a search engine not a static database and it does include results from only scientific journals. The computer illiterates who authored and reviewed the paper apparently had no idea how worthless their study was.
http://www.populartechnology.net/2010/08/google-scholar-illiteracy-in-pnas.html
—————–
James Sexton wrote recently:
Anderegg, we will recall, used an arbitrary criteria to establish not the actual numbers of alarmists vs skeptics, but rather their level of expertise. (papers published+citations) with the word “climate” in the paper. (Yes, vapid in and of itself, I know, but that’s for another day.) The ironic part is that while attempting to establish a base group of people for comparison (convinced vs unconvinced) they came to the ratio of 903:472. That is to say, 903 alarmists and 472 skeptical scientists. When whittled down by applying the criteria of needing at least 20 papers published using the word “climate”, they came to the ratio of 817: 93. Still that’s only 91%. Anderegg only gets to 98% by using his criteria and finding the top 50 scientists.
I believe all relevant links (or links to the relevant links) are in this post …. http://suyts.wordpress.com/2012/10/09/truth-market-scam-invalidates-doran-dont-fall-for-the-scam/
—————
atmoaggie says:
July 19, 2012 at 11:51 am
I think one very clear distinction should be made about whom is and is not expert in the original question of the survey, relating to the attribution of climate changes. Are we interested in classifying all “climate scientists” as such? Or limiting that to those that have researched and published specifically about the causes of climate change?
I fail to consider researchers that solely publish the hyperbole of future climate (hand waving) to be qualified in relative attribution. Those that just use GCM output to predict the movements of flora, fauna, and viruses, for example, without any questioning of the GCM output, itself, are simply not at all qualified to consider attribution.
—————-
Spector says:
July 17, 2010 at 9:28 am
RE: Jimbo: (July 17, 2010 at 1:56 am) “‘A few weeks ago, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences published a paper that claimed to have found evidence that scientists who support official climate change theory are vastly more numerous and expert than scientists who do not.’”
Yes, I believe this is more a case of accepting a consensus widely judged to be ‘politically correct’ rather than the result of any independent research or study by the scientists involved. I suspect the same result could be obtained from a survey of night-club comedians, news journalists, or holders of political office
————–
P. Solar says:
July 19, 2012 at 1:18 am
Yet another level of selection bias is idue to the difficulty of getting anything refuting AGW published. This has been an acute problem in the last five years, so preselecting “active climate scientists” on their recent publishing record is yet another way of excluding any dissenting experts from the survey results.
This is an appauling pseudo study, and I congratulate your detailed exposure of this fraud.
————-
David L. Hagen says:
November 18, 2012 at 3:05 pm
John Christy of University of Alabama, Huntsville, another of the prominent “unconvinced” scientists analyzed in the study, blames the disparity between the two groups on “the tight interdependency between funding, reviewers, popularity. … We are being “black‑listed,” as best I can tell, by our colleagues.”

Pat Michaels, a well-known climate skeptic, says in an e-mail that the paper’s conclusions are “a self-fulfilling prophecy.” He notes that “I have three manuscripts that have been out for nearly two years. There’s nothing fundamentally wrong with them except they indicate that warming will be at the low end of the frequency distribution given by [a middle-of-the-road IPCC greenhouse emissions scenario]. Every time we answer reviewers, the editor then sends it out to someone else to cook up another complaint.
…………..
Scientists publishing papers related to “climate” but who did not use that word are disenfranchised. Anderegg et al. actually found 66% (903) who were “convinced” on majority AGW, and 34% (472) who were “unconvinced”. The 97% only comes from excluding all but the most published with > 20 papers on “climate”. See: Is it 97% or 66% of climate scientists who believe in AGW?
For further critiques, see WUWT on Anderegg. [I.e., With this search: http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=Anderegg ]
—————-
John Mathon says:
October 30, 2012 at 11:21 am
“point the finger says I thought Mann and other climate modelers thought meteoroligists were ignorant of math and science?” Since more than half of meteorologists question AGW alarmism from polls I’ve seen this is why the “team” of 75 believers (from the 97% survey) didn’t bother to include meteorologists in the survey results?
—————–
The Viscount (Monckton) wrote:
The Professor also, inevitably, trots out the results of two “surveys” of climate scientists, but carefully fails to mention that one of the surveys was an unscientific, self-selected sample of just 79 scientists, of whom 77 agreed (as skeptical scientists would agree) that the weather has been getting warmer and that Man is at least partly responsible, and that the other survey – in fact, not a survey at all, but a compilation of names of scientists who had signed various petitions and had otherwise indicated a political preference on the issue – claimed that 97-98% of the most prolific climate researchers believed that “anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been responsible for most of the unequivocal warming of the Earth’s average global temperature over the 20th century.” This “survey” was evidentially valueless, because no scientist was actually asked for his or her opinion. Opinions were imputed to them by the compilers of the “survey”. Again, many skeptical scientists would agree that the world warmed in the 20th century, and would accept that at least some of that warming (if not necessarily most of it) was caused by us.
But the fact of manmade warming is not at issue. The real question is whether the rate of warming caused by us is likely to prove catastrophic. Yet neither of these much-quoted surveys asked whether the “unequivocal” warming would eventually prove catastrophic: for the assent to any such proposition would be likely to be well below 98%.
—————–
Brian H says:
July 19, 2012 at 2:59 am
Part of the travesty is the assumption that there is such a critter as a “climate scientist”. This concocted construction has zero academic or other history, and if any set of qualifications and expertise for it were to be drawn up it would encompass everything from mathematics to physics to statistics to hydrology to chemistry to biology to model development to geology and much more. No human with all the requisite skills and background exists.
——————–
In http://climatequotes.com/2011/02/10/study-claiming-97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-flawed/, Lichanos, 7/17:
Those who are committed to the AGW view, agitate for it vigorously because they fear the sky is falling. Those who are not…think their own thoughts and maybe write columns or serve on review boards. Is one supposed to write a paper for a peer-reviewed journal, the content of which would be to point out the sloppiness of other scientists? No. Thus, as Oreskes pointed out in her summary of her survey of literature on the topic, there was not a SINGLE article in her sample rejecting the AGW view. Not surprising. Professional scientists have better work to do.
———-
daveburton says:
July 18, 2012 at 11:24 am
That “97%” claim is significant, not for what it what it reveals about the science of climate change, but for what it reveals about the Climate Movement spin machine. It turns out to be a classic example of the Big Lie. Here are some articles about it:
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2011/01/03/lawrence-solomon-97-cooked-stats/
http://climatequotes.com/2011/02/10/study-claiming-97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-flawed/
http://www.wendymcelroy.com/news.php?extend.3684
http://sppiblog.org/news/the-97-consensus-is-only-75-self-selected-climatologists
————–
Roger Knights (me) says:
Many skeptics believe that “human activity” has a significant upward effect on temperature, but they’re thinking of land-use changes. The survey question looks like it was “loaded” to catch them in its sieve.
Climatology has become so identified with the CACA Cult (CACA=Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alarmism) that few would enter the field without also being believers, or without having undergone indoctrination in its tenets. Alarmism isn’t the conclusion of most of these scientwists, it’s their launch pad.
I suspect that most climatologists went into the field because it gave them an outlet for their greenie finger-pointing. Climatology has become a branch of environmentalism, with its “don’t touch nature” bias and its knee-jerk precautionism. Similar biased selection occurred in the field of recovered memory therapy.
If they were skeptical and did enter the field, they would be unlikely to get grants, and so would be hard up for material to publish. If they nevertheless did write skeptical critiques of warmism, they’d have a hard time getting them published. (See the recent trouble Spencer had getting his paper published, or McIntyre et al.)
OTOH, an alarmed alarmist is going to churn out all sorts of unlikely doomsday scenarios and get them published. (E.g., warming is causing bats to die off–a now-debunked thesis published twice in Nature, while papers skeptical of that idea were rejected.)
————–
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/what-else-did-the-97-of-scientists-say/
Guest Post by Barry Woods
[Contains good material and quotes, for example:]
So is Zimmermann defining expertise or introducing a selection bias here? It has not gone unnoticed that perhaps those scientists that self identify as climate scientists, are perhaps those that are more activist minded for a consensus.
It is quite possible for example, in this survey for scientist or even colleagues with identical qualifications, to self identify differently. Thus in this survey respondents could even be co-authors of a paper, but this survey would categorise one as more expert than the other. Who knows if this happened or not, the fact that it is possible demonstrates the flaws in the thinking.
Additionally those that are in the 97% group are deemed to be more expert in climate science, keeping more abreast of the ‘whole’ field than the others.
“..The participants in this group are actively publishing climate scientists, and those most likely to be familiar with the theory and mechanisms of climate change, as well as have a thorough understanding of the current research and be actively contributing to the field..” (Zimmermann feedback)
This I think is a huge assumption, ‘climate science’ is a huge multidisciplinary field.
Is a geologist that identifies as a ‘climate scientist’ any more an expert on astrophysics, atmospheric physics, statistics, etc than those classified as have less expertise in the categories identified above.
Additionally the responses may merely capture (only the last 5 years publishing Q5) those junior more activist post docs, etc that self identify as climate scientist, where perhaps the older more published ‘expert’ colleagues describe themselves by the qualifications, not as climate scientists. And of course, by the very nature of the survey, (which was commented on in the feedback) surveys of this type are potentially self selecting by the probability that those that are most concerned are more willing to take part.
——————-
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/09/25/where-consensus-fails/
Where Consensus Fails – The Science Cannot Be Called ‘Settled’
Guest Post by Thomas Fuller
Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch have just published the findings of a survey conducted with practicing climate scientists. The survey was conducted in 2008 with 379 climate scientists who had published papers or were employed in climate research institutes and dealt with their confidence in models, the IPCC and a variety of other topics. The survey findings are here: http://coast.gkss.de/staff/storch/pdf/GKSS_2010_9.CLISCI.pdf
Most of the questions were asked using a Likert Scale, which most of you have probably used in filling out one of the numerous online surveys that are on almost any website. “A set of statements was presented to which the respondent was asked to indicate his or her level of agreement or disagreement, for example, 1 = strongly agree, 7 = strongly disagree.
The value of 4 can be considered as an expression of ambivalence or impartiality or, depending on the nature of the question posed, for example, in a question posed as a subjective rating such as “How much do you think climate scientists are aware of the information that policy makers incorporate into their decision making process?”, a value of 4 is no longer a measure of ambivalence, but rather a metric.”
The total number of respondents is large enough to make statistically significant statements about the population of similarly qualified climate scientists, and the response rate to the invitations is in line with surveys conducted among academics and professionals. What that means is that we can be fairly confident that if we conducted a census of all such scientists the answers would not be very different to what is found in the survey’s findings.
Typically in a commercial survey, analysts would group the top two responses and report on the percentages of respondents that ticked box 6 or 7 on this scale. Using that procedure here makes it clear that there are areas where scientists are not completely confident in what is being preached–and that they don’t like some of the preachers. In fact, let’s start with the opinion of climate scientists about those scientists, journalists and environmental activists who present extreme accounts of catastrophic impacts.
The survey’s question read, “Some scientists present extreme accounts of catastrophic impacts related to climate change in a popular format with the claim that it is their task to alert the public. How much do you agree with this practice?”
Less than 5% agreed strongly or very strongly with this practice. Actually 56% disagreed strongly or very strongly. Joe Romm, Tim Lambert, Michael Tobis–are you listening? The scientists don’t like what you are doing.
And not because they are skeptics–these scientists are very mainstream in their opinions about climate science and are strong supporters of the IPCC. Fifty-nine percent (59%) agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, “The IPCC reports are of great use to the advancement of climate science.” Only 6% disagreed. And 86.5% agreed or strongly agreed that “climate change is occurring now” and 66.5% agreed or strongly agreed that future climate “will be a result of anthropogenic causes.”
Even so, there are areas of climate science that some people want to claim is settled, but where scientists don’t agree.
Only 12% agree or strongly agree that data availability for climate change analysis is adequate. More than 21% disagree or strongly disagree.
Only 25% agree or strongly agree that “Data collection efforts are currently adequate,” while 16% disagree or strongly disagree.
Perhaps most importantly, only 17.75% agree or strongly agree with the statement, “The state of theoretical understanding of climate change phenomena is adequate.” An equal percentage disagreed or strongly disagreed.
Only 22% think atmospheric models deal with hydrodynamics in a manner that is adequate or very adequate. Thirty percent (30%) feel that way about atmospheric models’ treatment of radiation, and only 9% feel that atmospheric models are adequate in their treatment of water vapor–and not one respondent felt that they were ‘very adequate.’
And only 1% felt that atmospheric models dealt well with clouds, while 46% felt they were inadequate or very inadequate. Only 2% felt the models dealt adequately with precipitation, and 3.5% felt that way about modeled treatment of atmospheric convection.
For ocean models, the lack of consensus continued. Only 20% felt ocean models dealt well with hydrodynamics, 11% felt that way about modeled treatment of heat transport in the ocean, 6.5% felt that way about oceanic convection, and only 12% felt that there exists an adequate ability to couple atmospheric and ocean models.
Only 7% agree or strongly agree that “The current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of turbulence,” and only 26% felt that way about surface albedo. Only 8% felt that way about land surface processes, and only 11% about sea ice.
And another shocker–only 32% agreed or strongly agreed that the current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the effects of greenhouse gases emitted from anthropogenic sources.
As Judith Curry has been noting over at her weblog, there is considerable uncertainty regarding the building blocks of climate science. The scientists know this. The politicians, propagandists and the converted acolytes haven’t gotten the message. If this survey does not educate them, nothing will.

Roger Knights
November 21, 2012 10:03 am

davidmhoffer says:
November 21, 2012 at 8:34 am
The reasoning presented by this crew of magicians to explain this defies an incredible amounts of known physics, and would take many hours of writing to debunk in totality. I’ve already been there, done that, know how much time it takes, and have neither the time nor the energy right now.
. . . . . . . . . .
The rebuttal to my sweater example has sufficient errors in it that responding to them in full would take at least four or five hours of my time.

It would eliminate rewriting-effort if you kept a file of your comments for recylcling later. I’ve been keeping a file of favorite comments of others from WUWT, under about 500 category-headings. (I’m up to 46 megabytes of a Word file—or 7300 pages. I’ve sent it (in two parts) to Steve Goreham for use in his online collection of quotes.)

John West
November 21, 2012 10:09 am

Science(fiction)_Author says:
”The temperature at the base of the atmosphere sets the surface temperature primarily by conduction.”
That’s exactly backwards; the sun heats the surface which then heats the atmosphere (lower). The amount of energy the surface receives from the sun “sets” the surface temperature which by conduction, convection, and radiation heats the base of the atmosphere which having absorbed heat radiates IR which in turn slows the net heat loss radiating from the surface.
Ok, let’s back-up a bit. Your entire argument boils down to since PV=nRT and n and V are essentially constant and R is constant then T is directly proportional to P by what is essentially a constant “C” = V/nR such that T = CP, therefore if you know the pressure you know the temperature. Furthermore, the pressure value determines the temperature value. Right?
Wrong. This is a complete misapplication of the Natural Gas Law.
If the pressure determined the temperature a beach in Iceland ( sea level pressure of 14.7 psi) would have the same temperature as a beach in Florida ( sea level pressure of 14.7 psi).
You’ve confused cause and effect. The adiabatic lapse rate is determined by a combination of factors such that it can be used as a tool for estimating temperature from pressure or pressure from temperature but is not determining the factors like temperature itself. It is not an intrinsic property; it is an extrinsic property that arises from intrinsic properties such as density, composition, gravitational field, etc. Ask yourself this: If we dropped our atmosphere onto Mars would it have the same lapse rate? The answer is NO because even though the density is still the same the weight isn’t, therefore, the lapse rate is not an intrinsic property.
The existence of the greenhouse effect is not in question; it has been measured all around the world. Engineers have been taking the greenhouse effect into account in calculations involving outdoor cooling rates for decades. As you know, a body radiates based on its temperature as described by the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. Back in the day when estimating the radiant heat loss from an outdoor object we would subtract the “apparent sky temperature” from the body’s temperature in order to calculate the NET radiation from the body. The body still radiates based on its temperature but it is also receiving radiation from the atmosphere proportional to the “apparent sky temperature” such that the NET radiant heat loss is the difference in the body’s temperature and the “apparent sky temperature” in the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. This is how we used to account for “backradiation” or the “greenhouse effect” even though we didn’t use either of those terms and we had a pretty limited table of “apparent sky temperature” values. These days, they use a much more accurate method for accounting for the GHE in such calculations. Please read:
http://www.asterism.org/tutorials/tut37%20Radiative%20Cooling.pdf
What’s in question is the magnitude of GHE “enhancement”, the results of such “enhancement”, and what may be causing such an “enhancement”.

November 21, 2012 10:10 am

davidmhoffer says:
November 20, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Science_Author;
For example, you cite Venus as an example of such a radiative GHE. It is not. Its atmosphere of CO2 is so massive that hardly any Solar radiation gets through to the surface
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And yet it is hot. Hotter than Mercury. How’s that work? Oh, I see… you say:
Science_Author;
The atmosphere of any planet will have a temperature gradient based on the adiabatic lapse rate. This is as it says, adiabatic, and thus does not require the addition of energy.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

It certainly does, it requires the addition of energy at the bottom of the atmosphere, i.e. the planet’s surface. When heat is added at the top of the atmosphere you get a stable profile (not adiabatic, in the stratosphere for example).

Lester Via
November 21, 2012 10:16 am

Still gases are notoriously poor thermal conductors. Anyone thinking the heat energy needed to maintain the adiabatic lapse rate is significant when convection doesn’t play a role should actually calculate the the heat transferred by conduction through a column of air at the lapse rate. A “back of the napkin” estimation will show It is insignificant and can be ignored.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
November 21, 2012 10:16 am

From Science_Author on November 20, 2012 at 9:17 pm:

But, even in a lab, a column of air in a tall sealed container will exhibit a small temperature difference between top and bottom, even without apparent air movement.**

** I have read other experiments confirming this, but here is one I just found in a few seconds on Google.

Trying to hide the URL? What could be embarrassing about http://www.firstgravitymachine.com/testresults.phtml anyway?
Oh, it’s someone hawking their BOOK, because their BOOK has the good stuff with all the answers, who frequently refers to their BOOK in the text, in all-caps, including as well the ORDERING FORM link for the BOOK.
Which as seen on their home page, is all about using the temperature differences between ends of a column of air to create a “PERPETUUM MOBILE OF THE SECOND KIND”! Buy the BOOK, build your own, and you may be the first to generate usable amounts of electricity!
Your standards for scientific proof are noted.

Bart
November 21, 2012 10:20 am

davidmhoffer says:
November 21, 2012 at 8:34 am
There are two separate lines of attack in those who say the GHE does not exist, though. The one fallacious line generally rests on energy conservation for closed systems, of which the Earth is not one having a persistent external power source. This LOA denies that, e.g., a cooler object can heat a warmer object. However, this principle only applies in an isolated system. Ultimately, all actions on Planet Earth lead back to the Sun, which is very much hotter than the Earth’s surface.
Another line says that back radiation exists, but cannot heat the planet’s surface because of feedback effects which tend to nullify it. I have not seen anyone lay out such an argument with compelling empirical evidence, but empirical evidence is also in inadequate supply for establishing that there is no such feedback.
All we can say for certain, I believe, is that, all things being equal, in general circumstances, the effect of greenhouse gases should be to warm the surface beyond what it would be without such an atmosphere. But, whether and by what degree “all things are equal” on Planet Earth is very much a valid topic of debate. Right now, quite frankly, there appears to be very little causal connection running from CO2 concentration to temperature. In fact, quite the opposite is true: there appears to be a strong causal relationship running from temperature to CO2.
I’d also advise against your sweater example. Convection of heat away from your body is the major means of heat transfer. The sweater inhibits that convection. Unless it has a specific IR reflecting layer, as in a mylar space blanket, I doubt significant thermal radiation is inhibited at all.

neasdenparade
November 21, 2012 10:28 am

Be useful to show up another tedious lie:
All those disagreeing with the AGW theory are being funded by “Big Oil”.
There is no such thing as ‘big oil’. What you see as ‘oil companies’ like Shell or BP are energy companies and also diversify in many other areas. Economics works on supply and demand, so if you restrict supply and keep the same demand the prices rise. So restricting all fossil fuel exploration and production will simply raise the prices of what they have and make it last a lot longer. Not to mention the subsidies to diversify into renewables and free carbon permits they sell for millions. Maybe that’s why the Climate Research Unit was partly funded by ‘big oil’.

LKMiller
November 21, 2012 11:03 am

Although I have a strong scientific background, I am not a climate scientist, and never will be. I am a forest geneticist, so make it a point to argue passionately on matters relating to forest genetics and tree improvement, but leave the climate science to others far more qualified than I am. Thus, I rarely comment on WUWT, preferring to learn from others.
“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.” A quote usually attributed to Abraham Lincoln.
And, while it may come as a shock to some on this forum, not everything you read on the internet is true. Shocking I know, but a word to the wise. Before commenting on any given WUWT story, it behooves you to actually read through the posts ahead of you. In many cases, it would save you lots of embarrassment.
Finally, as an alumnus of NC State, it pains me deeply to agree with rgbatduke. But, it only proves that even the occasional Dookie can have common sense. Maybe the proximity to Raleigh is the source of his cool-headed outlook. I agree completely: there is much that we simply do not know. This is the primary source of my skepticism concerning the theory of anthropogenic CO2 driven global warming – there is simply so much about a chaotic system we don’t begin to understand. Add to this the historical records that clearly show warmer,colder, wetter, drier, etc. conditions under widely varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and I remained unconvinced.

November 21, 2012 11:42 am

MikeB says:
November 21, 2012 at 3:39 am

MYTH 3: Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100 years, adding to the Greenhouse effect, thus warming the earth.
So which part of this multiple clause statement is supposed to be the myth? Surely no one is unaware of the Mauna Loa measurements that show that CO2 levels have increased over the last 100 years? Furthermore anyone scientifically literate knows that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and more of it will warm the surface of the Earth more. So is the basis of this so-called myth supposed to be that the increased C02 levels are not due to human activity? This is remotely possible but since no serious alternative is proposed and C02 concentration is higher now than at any time in the past 800,000 years it is probably due to the burning of fossil fuel. So Myth 3 is not a myth and the whole credibility of ‘Friends of Science’ is thereby jeopardised.

I agree that MYTH 3 needs to be changed. It was written a long time ago. If you read the Fact part, you we see that we agree that “human produced Carbon dioxide has increased”, so that is not the myth. I also believe that the vast majority of the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is due to human caused emissions. Increased CO2 makes the greenhouse effect stronger and will warm the earth a little. We claim that “there is no proof that CO2 is the main driver of global warming.” and that the sun in the main driver of climate change.
My submission to the Canadian Government on coal-fired electrical generating plants here
http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=545
shows that I expect the CO2 doubling to cause a 0.5 C temperature increase, but there is much uncertainty in this estimate. The water vapour content of the atmosphere near the tropopause declines with increasing temperatures according to radiosonde data, offsetting the warming effect of increasing water in the lower troposphere. When the forcing and feedback cloud responses are correctly separated, the satellite data shows clouds provide a negative feedback response. See
http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=533 and
http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=508
I have therefore changed MYTH 3 on the Friends of Science website so it ends with “thus causing most of the earth’s warming of the last 100 years.”

Matt G
November 21, 2012 11:53 am

MYTH 11 – Humans can resolve any noticeable difference and do something about a rising CO2 with current politics. (west CO2 = no difference)
Bart,
“Another line says that back radiation exists, but cannot heat the planet’s surface because of feedback effects which tend to nullify it. I have not seen anyone lay out such an argument with compelling empirical evidence, but empirical evidence is also in inadequate supply for establishing that there is no such feedback.”
A bucket of water in the shade outside from the cold water tap in the morning doesn’t warm all day. A bucket of water in the sun outside all day from the cold water tap warms 35c. Back radiation made no difference to the bucket of water, but the sun made a huge difference.
A clear night warms up when it clouds over, scientific evidence of back radiation. The above example scientific evidence it can’t warm a volume of water.

Matt G
November 21, 2012 11:59 am

In my above post included less than and greater than symbols, but were not allowed. Therefore the information in the brackets should have been.
(west less than CO2, east greater than CO2 = no difference)

Vince Causey
November 21, 2012 12:03 pm

Science_Author says:
November 21, 2012 at 1:24 am
“These frequencies, with corresponding intensities, merely resonate, and the effect is that the radiation is immediately re-emitted without any of its electro-magnetic energy ever being converted to thermal energy in the target. That is, it does not transfer heat. However, the warmer body radiates more intensely [as a result of back radiation] and in more frequencies, and its Planck curve is thus higher and broader,”
If the warmer body radiates more intensely, does that not mean that it would have a higher temperature after all, as per the Stefan-Boltzman equation;
Radiative energy flux = T^4
Or am I missing something?

John West
November 21, 2012 1:12 pm

Brain F@rt alert! The dropping our atmosphere onto Mars was a bad example on my part. That would basically be the equivalent to putting an amount of gas into a larger container since Mars’ gravity is less than Earth’s, which would increase the volume and decrease the density THEREBY changing the lapse rate.

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
November 21, 2012 1:13 pm

From Science_Author on November 21, 2012 at 6:01 am:
Consider a long radiation-proof and perfectly insulated cylinder full of air.

So an equilibrium is established with more molecules per cubic whatever in the lower regions and less at the top. But this means that temperature measurements will be higher at the base of the column than at the top.
Finally found the piece I was looking for. Willis Eschenbach was believing that too, seemed logical, until he actually worked through it. Here is why that is false, without math:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/19/perpetuum-mobile/
It’s quite simple, really. Such a column of air will go isothermal, same temperature top to bottom. Same amount of thermal energy per volume, not per molecule as your belief would have it. Those air molecules with the highest kinetic energy will travel upwards the most, simple physics, conversion of kinetic energy to gravitational potential energy. Gravity would leave less molecules at the top, but they’ll have more energy, and the temperature, based on the average kinetic energy, would be the same as at the bottom.
Goes right back to thermodynamics. Just picture a perpendicular plane intersecting the cylinder somewhere, or put a mark on the outside of the cylinder to denote a level, same thing. If there are more molecules at a higher temperature below, thus more thermal energy per volume below, then hotter would flow to colder, thermal energy would flow upward. This would continue until above and below would have the same thermal energy per volume. Your cylinder of air would go isothermal.
More complete and other explanations are at that link. Go read, hopefully you’ll learn something.