I’ve never done a double feature before where our Climate Craziness of the Week and Quote of the Week are one and the same. 350.org’s Bill McKibben gets this unique honor.
From the what universe does Bill McKibben live in department? While going on about heat waves, he comes up with the ultimate “I don’t understand science” zinger. How long before people stop listening to this guy? I would not have believed he’d be disturbed enough to write this if I hadn’t read it as a direct quote written by his own hand.
Hat tip to Tom Nelson.
Here’s the quote, its “Big Oil” irrationality on steroids:
…this industry, and this industry alone, holds the power to change the physics and chemistry of our planet , and they’re planning to use it. – 350.org’s Bill McKibben
I’m reminded of this:
Source: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0708473/quotes?qt=qt0198370
Here’s some excerpts from McKibben’s Rolling Stone article:
Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math | Politics News | Rolling Stone
warmest May on record for the Northern Hemisphere – the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.
…
Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by midcentury and still have some reasonable hope of staying below two degrees. (“Reasonable,” in this case, means four chances in five, or somewhat worse odds than playing Russian roulette with a six-shooter.)
…”The new data provide further evidence that the door to a two-degree trajectory is about to close,” said Fatih Birol, the IEA’s chief economist. In fact, he continued, “When I look at this data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of about six degrees.” That’s almost 11 degrees Fahrenheit, which would create a planet straight out of science fiction.
…
We have five times as much oil and coal and gas on the books as climate scientists think is safe to burn. We’d have to keep 80 percent of those reserves locked away underground to avoid that fate…Most of us are fundamentally ambivalent about going green: We like cheap flights to warm places, and we’re certainly not going to give them up if everyone else is still taking them. Since all of us are in some way the beneficiaries of cheap fossil fuel, tackling climate change has been like trying to build a movement against yourself – it’s as if the gay-rights movement had to be constructed entirely from evangelical preachers, or the abolition movement from slaveholders.
…Given this hard math, we need to view the fossil-fuel industry in a new light. It has become a rogue industry, reckless like no other force on Earth. It is Public Enemy Number One to the survival of our planetary civilization. “Lots of companies do rotten things in the course of their business – pay terrible wages, make people work in sweatshops – and we pressure them to change those practices,” says veteran anti-corporate leader Naomi Klein, who is at work on a book about the climate crisis. “But these numbers make clear that with the fossil-fuel industry, wrecking the planet is their business model. It’s what they do.”…this industry, and this industry alone, holds the power to change the physics and chemistry of our planet, and they’re planning to use it.
…
There’s not a more reckless man on the planet than Tillerson…In December, BP finally closed its solar division. Shell shut down its solar and wind efforts in 2009. The five biggest oil companies have made more than $1 trillion in profits since the millennium – there’s simply too much money to be made on oil and gas and coal to go chasing after zephyrs and sunbeams.
…Until a quarter-century ago, almost no one knew that CO2 was dangerous…if their college’s endowment portfolio has fossil-fuel stock, then their educations are being subsidized by investments that guarantee they won’t have much of a planet on which to make use of their degree. …we have met the enemy and they is Shell.
No, Bill, its you, and you may very well be insane. Get help.
Barking mad, like a rabid dog. To be spurned and avoided at all costs! Today’s pop-news, tomorrow’s litter.
Defending Bill McKibben
I think we are being too hard on Mr McKibben on this quote (though not on the rest of what he says).
The expression “change the chemistry of ZZZZ” is used commonly. It means change the chemical content, not change the rules of chemistry. I suspect that Mr McKibben is using “change the physics” in a similar way. Not changing the laws of physics, but changing the physical environment so as to produce different outcomes. For example, changing the chemical make up of the atmosphere or changing the land surface by clearing vegetation and building urban environments.
I don’t defend the rest of what he says, but we need to target our criticisms accurately or we risk imitating those we criticise.
Maybe McKibben could write a new physics book – the IPCC would publish it in their next report. He would probably get a Nobel Prize.
David Ball states: “Small medium at large”
I hear the name of this medium is Raya.
Well done Medium Raya.
what is really really sad is these clowns don’t care about the climate the environment morality of justice. They want the human population diminished by 90% .
do they realise that they are unlikely to survive a week without “big oil”.
Methinks Bill missed the ferry to Jonestown.
The mathematics is ripe for ridicule.
His 327 month average is quite silly.
My last 327 months alive I’m taller than I was than my lifetime height average. Clearly I’m going to grow so tall I’ll bash my head on doorways.
The other shocking statistic is that fully half of the population have more balls than the average person. Clearly we need a testicular tax to halt this problem before we reach peak men.
As usual, hysterists only look at costs, never at benefits. Say we stopped using oil tomorrow, as is his fervent wish. How many people would die?
– everyone waiting for an ambulance that never shows up
– everyone that relies on motorised transport for food, medicine and supplies
– everyone that relies on heating for their homes and doesn’t have a forest to chop down
– everyone that relies on large scale agriculture for their calorie supply
Not many people left after you exclude those groups.
And they talk about climate change being dangerous?
Says she (he?) who will not approve all posts on their blog …
Sorry mods, very little other option …
.
Every time the average temperature goes up or down, it becomes its own new baseline about which there is roughly a 50/50 probability of it going up or down again. The more the average temperature veers away from McKibben’s arbitrary baseline (the 20th century average) the less of a chance of that average returning to the baseline; the odds do not stay at 50/50, but diminish very rapidly the further the average temperature displaces from McKibben’s baseline.
So the problem for McKibben is the idea of a baseline as having any validity whatsoever in a stochastic system. If only Earth had a correct temperature, McKibben would be right! And we could all wear hair shirts and work to restore Earth’s correct temperature…that we defined as the clever little humans that we are! Yes, we are the generation that figured out Earth’s correct temperature.
re: his picture….. why do these people always look like they’re trying to pass a […] the size of an ostrich egg?
[Please watch your language. Robt]
Rolling Stone … they can’t even figure out that Rush belongs in the Hall of Fame and you want me to read something outside of their genre?
Shell gamed.
Apparently what Bill has is a result of mixing Kool Aid with polywater.
I believe Bill is not getting adequate oxygen to his brain.
My diagnosis is Cranial Hypoxia resulting in a Dead Zone in his head.
Cranial nerve dysfunction and Fatty liver and Severe hypoxia.
http://symptoms.rightdiagnosis.com/cosymptoms/cranial-nerve-dysfunction/fatty-liver/severe-hypoxia.htm
climatetruthinitiative says: “Re: 3.7 x 10-99, it could be that someone was using the “-” symbol in place of the more conventional “^” [“to the power of”]. I wouldn’t crucify the user for using the minus sign…..”
A minus sign in mathematics has a specific meaning that is understood by all who are literate in that field. The caret also has specific meaning among the numerate. Bill bandies about exponentials and “odds,” but clearly doesn’t know their proper use. Of course people will make fun of him. You yourself speak of the caret as “more” conventional, which is ridiculous. It’s the correct symbol and no other can legitimately replace it. This isn’t social “science.” It’s math. Get a grip.
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
George Carlin
Jean Parisot says:
July 19, 2012 at 8:56 pm
Rolling Stone … they can’t even figure out that Rush belongs in the Hall of Fame and you want me to read something outside of their genre?
Granted that Limbaugh has a huge following, but that shouldn’t be the sole metric for–
Oh. *That* Rush.
Never mind.
Michael J says:
July 19, 2012 at 7:09 pm
…I suspect that Mr McKibben is using “change the physics” in a similar way. Not changing the laws of physics, but changing the physical environment so as to produce different outcomes. For example, changing the chemical make up of the atmosphere or changing the land surface by clearing vegetation and building urban environments.
I don’t defend the rest of what he says, but we need to target our criticisms accurately or we risk imitating those we criticise.
None of us knows what he intended to write, only that which he actually wrote. Targeting what he may possibly have *meant* to say rather than what he *did* say would be an exercise in futility.
leftinbrooklyn says:
July 19, 2012 at 3:25 pm
“I wouldn’t put too much into this bullying, these threats. To pursue this in any large degree would guarantee their downfall. Yes, there may be sporadic cases, but, in general the public would quickly see their true colors and demand immediate an end to any large-scale violence. Witness: When’s the last time you heard mention of the Occupy Movement?”
The Old media have dropped them as they became too damaging to their cause; but they are still around, making threats. I’ve read something yesterday about them, but not in the Old Media but on Breitbart. Of course the Old Media will not mention any of that; at the moment they want Romney’s tax returns, but next week they will whip up a different frenzy.
Of course, if all you read is the Old Media, they will manipulate you with their coordinated message. Google JournOList to see how that works.
Skiphil says:
July 19, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Anyway, we have it straight from the eco-freak’s Twitter that this article is of vast world historical importance:
Bill McKibben @billmckibben
“I think this is the most impt thing I’ve written in many years…”
He fat-fingered an “m” instead of an “n”…
Anthony, use a better picture please. He’s nuts no matter what.
Beat the purpose to go down that road. Take your pick http://bit.ly/SKWNQe
“Bill McKibben, an American environmentalist and writer, attending the 2006 Stanford Singularity Summit via an HDTV telepresence system.”
Do we really want to see this guy in HD??????
Startrek moment ‘Ye cannae change the laws of physics, Captain’
Cognitive dissonance… Read ‘http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance’
quote’ The Belief Disconfirmation Paradigm
Dissonance is aroused when people are confronted with information that is inconsistent with their beliefs. If the dissonance is not reduced by changing one’s belief, the dissonance can result in misperception or rejection or refutation of the information, seeking support from others who share the beliefs, and attempting to persuade others to restore consonance.
An early version of cognitive dissonance theory appeared in Leon Festinger’s 1956 book, When Prophecy Fails. This book gave an inside account of the increasing belief that sometimes follows the failure of a cult’s prophecy. The believers met at a pre-determined place and time, believing they alone would survive the Earth’s destruction. The appointed time came and passed without incident. They faced acute cognitive dissonance: had they been the victim of a hoax? Had they donated their worldly possessions in vain? Most members chose to believe something less dissonant: the aliens had given earth a second chance, and the group was now empowered to spread the word: earth-spoiling must stop. The group dramatically increased their proselytism despite the failed prophecy’.
GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX!
With some newly acquired mathematical techniques as I understand them, I will prove the above statement. Before I begin, the number of galaxies in the universe is estimated to be 150 billion or 1.5 x 10^11. The number of stars in each galaxy is estimated to average 100 billion or 1 x 10^11. So the total number of stars in the universe is 1.5 x 10^22. As we are led to believe, added CO2 should increase temperatures so the chances of a succeeding month being warmer than the month before is larger than 50%. But in my calculations, I will generously assume there is only a 50/50 chance the next month on the average will be warmer than the month before. On the hadsst2 data set, there is cooling at the rate of about 1.0 C/ century for the last 10 years and 6 months or 126 months. See:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/trend
The chances of that green slope line going down for 126 consecutive months is 2^126 or 8.5 x 10^37. Since this is many orders of magnitude larger than the number of stars in the known universe, I conclude global warming is a hoax. If my reasoning is totally out to lunch, I will ask that Bill McKibben show me the errors of my ways.