Spaceweather.com writes: (link mine)
The CME launched toward Earth by the July 12th X-flare has not yet arrived. However, we are still within the forecast window set by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab. The cloud should hit at 09:17 UT plus or minus 7 hours on Saturday, July 14th. Weekend auroras are likely.
In the meantime, you can check the WUWT Solar Reference page and watch the data from the satellites, the CME should announce its arrival prominently.
@John Day
> Nothing remarkable that we haven’t seen in the recent past …
Perhaps my comment needs to be revised. The storm has now been sustained (mostly) at Kp=5 & 6 for over 24 hours. Solar wind Bz is still negative, so looks like storm will persist for awhile longer.
Is this going to set a record for SC24 “longest geomagnetic storm”?
> Is this going to set a record for SC24 “longest geomagnetic storm”?
… and if so, will the CAGW crowd claim another “extreme weather” catastrophe?
😐
Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and the Stock Market
Atlanta Federal Reserve 2003
http://www.oss.cc/library/Solar_Flares.pdf
Current SSN score up for July (15) on SIDC count is about 90, so the SSN final for July will be definitely above 45, but more likely high 60s or low 70s, since there is blank sun ahead.
Tom in Texas says:
July 15, 2012 at 7:40 pm
……
In far northern latitudes, strong solar storms ‘can affect’ electrical brain patterns.
Dr.S. occasionally recalls his experience from his visit to the USSR and the ‘lunatic index’ of solar activity (lot of it elsewhere too).
@me
> Is this going to set a record …. ?
No. The storm is over and didn’t last as long as the March 2012 storm.
http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/sedoss/solact3/do?d=2012%2c03%2c07
(Scroll to bottom to see K-index time-line)
Long ago, I stopped visiting some interesting places like Bonneville Dam, on the Columbia, or the Grand Coulee Dam.
I just don’t want to be near one of those places, when one of those solar flares hits, and welds the brushes of one of those monstrous Siemens alternators, and freezes up the turbine, sending a huge tidal wave, back up the tube tunnel and blowing up the dam. That would flood half of Northern Oregon, or Eastern Washington, and I don’t want to be there when that happens.
But living in the Bay area, near Moffett Field and the three local commercial airports, is almost as dangerous; with the likelihood of all those jet planes dropping out of the sky with seized up engines, and burned out flight controls.
We need to go back to some safe alternatives, like kerosene lamps, that simply blow out the flame, when the sun gose ape.