UPDATE: 12:55PM Dr. Mann ducks a TV station reporter who requested an interview afterwards, see below.
Steve McIntyre recently published a new graph on his website Climate Audit.
Alerted to the fact that Dr. Mann would be speaking at the OC Water Summit, I was asked to submit a question, but I could not make it there in time given the short notice. A suitable proxy, our friend Roger Sowell, was kind enough to attend and ask a question. Here’s what I sent him in way of a primer, I don’t know the actual question he asked, but we hope to have a video presentation later as I was told it was recorded.
Figure 1. Yamal Chronologies. Green – from Hantemirov _liv.rwl dataset; red- from Briffa et al 2008.
How interesting it is that the Hantemirov data in green, diverges from the CRU 2008 “Hockey Team” data in red. This is due to a larger data sample. One tree core, YAD061 is responsible for most of the difference, when a small set of tree core data is used.
This graph demonstrates how trees simply don’t show a hockey stick shape when all of the data is used.
In MBH98, your paper Dr. Mann, has a similar problem to the Briffa data. Your solution was to not use tree core data after 1960 and to splice on the instrumental temperature record to in effect “hide the decline” of the trees after 1960.
How do you respond to the charge that the tree ring data was cherry picked to show a desired result, and that Mr. McIntyre has falsified your work by showing that the premise of a hockey stick falls apart when all of the data is used?
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Roger Sowell was in the audience this morning (thank you for responding on short notice). I received this answer via text from Roger Sowell, to a question he asked:
He responded that it was Bradley as coauthor, and his (MBH98) work did not use the Briffa data.
Said the decline or divergence is well known but not understood, so is being studied.
Basically dodged the question; called it “specious”.
He said the warming is real and he addressed all this in his book.
It was hoped that Steve McIntyre would have provided a question for submission, but there was no email response from him in time.
Roger Sowell has done some excellent work in climate skepticism, I urge readers to read his recent presentation, here’s the primer:
The following is the presentation I made on April 17, 2012, to the Southern California Section of the American Institute of Chemical Engineers (AIChE), at their monthly dinner meeting held at Long Beach, California. The title for the presentation is “What if the Warmists are Wrong? Is Catastrophic Cooling Coming? Implications.” My heartfelt thanks to Mr. Alan Benson, chair of the Southern California Section, for the invitation to speak. I also appreciate those who attended, and especially for their questions. As always, it is an honor to address AIChE members.
The presentation was approximately one hour, followed by another hour of questions and answers. The presentation is in three parts, as suggested by the title: 1) Are the Warmists Wrong? 2) Is Catastrophic Cooling Coming? and 3) Implications.
Background: this topic could easily require a week to present the many aspects and interesting details. With a mere hour at my disposal, this presentation necessarily hits only the major points. My purpose here, firstly, was to inform the audience of what has transpired in the climate science arena in part 1, primarily as to the quality of the data and the climate models. It is important to note the scarcity of agreement between the model projections and actual data. Secondly, my purpose was to present the case for imminent global cooling in part 2. Thirdly, my purpose was to describe a few of the many and serious implications for imminent global cooling in part 3, tying this in to what engineers can expect. Engineers are problem-solvers, and this presents a great many problems to solve. I also described a few of the legal ramifications of imminent global cooling.
Full presentation here, well worth bookmarking.
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UPDATE: 11:40AM I’m told via telephone that a local TV station is going to be interviewing Dr. Mann, and also Mr. Sowell due to his question. He promises more details later. Stay tuned.
UPDATE2 11:55PM: I wrote to Roger Sowell, after getting the above message, he reports Mann ducked the interview with KOCE-TV, the PBS station in Southern California. When Mann can’t even appear on warm-friendly PBS, you know he’s on the run.
On Friday, May 18, 2012, Anthony wrote:
Dear Roger,Thank you most sincerely for taking time out of your busy schedule to do this, I am in your debt. Anthony,
He replied:
My pleasure. This has been noteworthy.
Dr Mann refused the interview, and according to the reporter, he was extremely rude about it.
My interview went ok, I believe.
Roger
I’ll post that interview if it becomes available online.
davidmhoffer says:
May 20, 2012 at 11:02 am
otter17;
You state that I have “added zero” as if it were fact, yet I have asked some very important questions concerning how one approaches sources.>>>
I said you’ve added nothing to the discussion of the science, and you haven’t. If you truly are a newbie, and you truly are interested, then take this advice:
Educate yourself in the basics. Find out for your self what “CO2 is logarithmic” means and figure out for yourself what that implies about itz ability to warm the planet. Gets some books on botany and read up on the factors that govern plant growth, and the relative importance of each in comparison to temperature. Pick up a geology text book and read through the history of the ice ages and what their causes were. Read some history books that focus on human activity during the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Check out articles on receding glaciers in the current period which are exposing the remains of human civilization that precedes the glaciers. Take a look at the data from UAH and GISS on a regular basis. If you are really a newbie with a real interest in the issue, these are the things you need to do for yourself to have any hope of understanding the issues. If all you want to do is play “my cite is better than your cite” you will learn nothing, you will teach nothing, and you will waste other people’s times as well as your own.
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“Check out articles on receding glaciers in the current period which are exposing the remains of human civilization that precedes the glaciers.”
Where can I find these. I would be interested to read any I could get my grubby little hands on.
Tom in Worcester;
Where can I find these. I would be interested to read any I could get my grubby little hands on>>>
Just google something like “receding glacier human remains” and you’ll get hits like:
http://climateaudit.org/2005/11/18/archaeological-finds-in-retreating-swiss-glacier/
http://www.nytimes.com/learning/teachers/featured_articles/19991005tuesday.html
There have been quite a few finds in the last few years, many of them reported in newspapers as local events, many in archeology papers, but narry a mention of climate when they are brought to light. Yet, there they are, proof positive that humans lives at a time when the earth was much warmer than it is now, and not an SUV in sight.
>Gail Combs says:
>May 19, 2012 at 5:54 am
>What Mann and “The Team” have done is dragged the reputation of science and scientists in >the mud. As a chemist I became so disgusted with the bandwagon following the team I quit both >professional societies I was a member of for decades.
I wouldn’t confuse dragging a reputation through the mud, and being a celebrated scientist, vilified by a few idiots.
He’s being recognised for his contribution to science: http://www.egu.eu/awards-medals/award/hans-oeschger/2012/michael-mann.html
And neither the university: http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2010/07/michael-mann-exonerated-as-penn.html
Nor the courts: http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/03/virginia-high-court-rejects-case-against-mann.html
Found that he has any case to answer.
davidmhoffer says:
May 19, 2012 at 6:53 am
So I awoke this morning to see if Seth, Otter17 or DR_UK had the cahonies to answer my question. Of the three, only Seth responded:
“But to answer your question:
I imagine not, I expect that I would be busy making my own preparations.”
I figured there woulde be some way to weasel out of the issue and Seth found it. He wouldn’t even TRY to save a few million lives by warning people of the impending disaster, he’d just save himself. What does that say about Seth?
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That he’s not a good a man as Dr. Michael Mann?
But that’s okay, I’m not as well recognised either.
davidmhoffer says:
May 19, 2012 at 6:53 am
So…. we have Seth, who wouldn’t even bother to warn the rest of us, and the climate scientists who warn us on a daily basis, but won’t explain for certain how they know, and are taking zero steps to protect themselves and their children from the disaster they claim is certain.
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It’s not the same thing. You asked me what I would do if I “were a scientist who, in the course of your research, became aware of an impending natural disaster, only days away”
That’s a lot different from the climate change situation. For one thing there wouldn’t be time for the public to do verification. They’ve been trying to verify the greenhouse effect for 150 years, and haven’t managed yet.
http://www.theclimatehub.com/the-discovery-of-the-greenhouse-effect-has-its-150th-birthday
Phil Clarke says:
May 20, 2012 at 9:54 am
“PS BTW if the name Hantemirov seems familiar, it was he, who when McIntyre complained about CRU scientists ‘stonewalling’ his requests for data revealed:
Steve has an amnesia. I had sent him these data at February 2, 2004 on his demand.”
Holy cow! I wasn’t aware that Hantemirov was a CRU scientist! Why, that changes everything. Was he a co-author on Briffa 2000 as well?
Seth’
I figured there woulde be some way to weasel out of the issue and Seth found it. He wouldn’t even TRY to save a few million lives by warning people of the impending disaster, he’d just save himself. What does that say about Seth?
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That he’s not a good a man as Dr. Michael Mann?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Nope, that Dr Mann is just as much a selfish jerk as Seth. With all this time on his hands to make public his data and methods which he insists foretell disaster, he refuses. There’s plenty of time to review his work and decide if the action (which he says is urgent) is warranted. Can’t do that if he won’t release the data and methods, can we? But then, he doesn’t appear to be following his own advice and saving himself either. Is he buying land in the area of the world that he claims will be the last few left habitable? No. Is he seeking citizenship in the few countries like Canada that he says will survive? No. Is he doing a single thing to protect is children and grandhchildren from the looming disaster he insists he knows is just a few years away? No.
What difference does a few days or a few years make? If he “knows” that there is a disaster coming, he owes it to humanity to explain how he knows that, and he owes it to his family to act to protect them. He has done neither.
I’ll take the logical conclusion regarding those facts over all the links and cites and accolades that Dr Mann has collected and ever will collect.
Who made that statement? You? Nice strawman.
Mann did a similar trick. He grossly overweighted one grove of trees to come up with his HS. One grove of stripbark Bristlecone Pines in the US Soutwest took precedence over all the other proxies in his “study”. Briffa used a single tree from Yamal to garner the same effect.
davidmhoffer says:
May 21, 2012 at 10:21 am
Can’t do that if he won’t release the data and methods, can we?
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Mann’s data and methods are available from this link:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/
Moreover, all the MBH data is available here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/research/research.html
Seth,
Sorry can’t find it. Could you please post a link to the specific data and the specific code used to produce the hockey stick graph in MBH98?
Seth;
davidmhoffer says:
May 21, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Seth,
Sorry can’t find it. Could you please post a link to the specific data and the specific code used to produce the hockey stick graph in MBH98?>>>
Let me save you some time looking for it Seth. Dr Mann testified that he would not release his code for MBH98 because it was very special code and that there was no guarantee that it would produce the same result when run on another computer.
Seth:
If you truely think that Mann and his Hockey Team have been forthcoming and open with all of thier data, I suggest you read a book called “The Hockey Stick Illusion”, by Andrew Montford. It documents about 10 years worth of hiding / refusals to release data, disruption of the scientific method, and in some cases, flat out lying coming from those who are supposed to be scientists. It’s readily available on Kindle and the digital version comes with links to all the original sources used for anything controversial, making it easy for the reader to verify what he/she is reading.
Even you are a “true believer” of dangerous AGW, I still suggest you read it as it will help you (and others around you) if you woud just get yourself informed about the issues (of which is is painfully obvious that you are not) before posting your opinions.
Just some guy:
If you truly think that the best analysis of scientific evidence can be found in books rather than the peer reviewed literature, I suggest you read a book called “Merchants of Doubt,” by Dr Naomi Oreskes. It is subtitled “How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming”, and gives a window of understanding of how books like “The Hockey Stick Illusion” can come to be published.
Even better, you would do better to read some science before suggesting that some of the world’s most regarded ones are “flat out lying”. Dr Michael Mann’s book “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars” might give you some insight into that, and would help you get yourself informed of the issues (of which is is painfully obvious that you are not) before posting your opinions.
davidmhoffer says:
May 21, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Seth,
Sorry can’t find it. Could you please post a link to the specific data and the specific code used to produce the hockey stick graph in MBH98?
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Did you look under Mann et al (1998/1999)?
The code is this file:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/shared/research/MANNETAL98/METHODS/multiproxy.f
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davidmhoffer says:
May 21, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Let me save you some time looking for it Seth. Dr Mann testified that he would not release his code for MBH98 because it was very special code and that there was no guarantee that it would produce the same result when run on another computer.
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It didn’t take any time. I’d already given you the link, so all I had to do was click on it, then go to the third page where the paleo reconstructions data and code are.