MSNBC reports that the lack of temperature rise in the last 12 years has convinced environmentalist James Lovelock ( The Gaia Hypothesis) that the climate alarmism wasn’t warranted.
From his Wikipedia entry: Writing in the British newspaper The Independent in January 2006, Lovelock argues that, as a result of global warming, “billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable” by the end of the 21st century.
He has been quoted in The Guardian that 80% of humans will perish by 2100 AD, and this climate change will last 100,000 years. According to James Lovelock, by 2040, the world population of more than six billion will have been culled by floods, drought and famine. Indeed “[t]he people of Southern Europe, as well as South-East Asia, will be fighting their way into countries such as Canada, Australia and Britain”.
What he has said to MSNBC is a major climb down. MSNBC reports in this story:
James Lovelock, the maverick scientist who became a guru to the environmental movement with his “Gaia” theory of the Earth as a single organism, has admitted to being “alarmist” about climate change and says other environmental commentators, such as Al Gore, were too.
Lovelock, 92, is writing a new book in which he will say climate change is still happening, but not as quickly as he once feared.
He previously painted some of the direst visions of the effects of climate change. In 2006, in an article in the U.K.’s Independent newspaper, he wrote that “before this century is over billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable.”
However, the professor admitted in a telephone interview with msnbc.com that he now thinks he had been “extrapolating too far”…
…
“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.
…
“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that.”
This won’t sit well with many. McKibben has a whole movement based on alarm for example. Watch the true believers now trash him in the “doddering old man” style we’ve seen before.
hat tip to Steve Milloy at junkscience.com
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Lovelock will have to sacrificed on the alter of Gaia for his heresy…. He’s a warlock! He turned me into a newt!….. Well, I got much better…. LOL!
CAGW cultists need not worry, however, as I think these same *sigh*entists will soon change their religion to man-made global cooling, which is much scarier than CAGW.
And so it goes….until it doesn’t…..
This makes me really mad. Guys like this have resulted in the wastage of vast sums of money which could have been better spent on people who really needed help and on research which might have positively helped mankind’s future. He should be ridiculed for being so stupid to cause alarm based on opinion and not on facts. And he should apologize profusely for his extremely poor judgment. Being a former warmist he probably won’t because they think they can do no wrong.
“Well, Dr. Lovelock isn’t a climate scientist…” – that’s a coded phrase that means that he isn’t or is no-longer a part of the cult. Anyone who isn’t a climate extremist fundamentalist is not considered a “climate scientist” by the cult.
lenbilen, HP Avondale?
Paullm, the body of Lovelock’s work is overwhelmingly positive, as is most or much of the environmental movement – though everything can get off track, can’t it?
Praise to Professor Lovelorn for temperate thoughts: “…few remaining breeding pairs…”
How was he preparing for his new role, I wonder?
gnomish says:
April 23, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Quoting Henry Rollins has elevated you an order of magnitude in my estimation (not that you care). Kudos anyway.
I still rail at the term ‘progressive’. Like someone giving themselves their own nickname.
“Hey there Paul, how you doin’?”
“Call me “Spider”
“Paul it is then.”
You have taken a snake to your bosom. The obviously ludicrous claims Lovelock made will now be replaced with more “reasonable” claims about climate change. The push will still be on in his new book — and you have said nice things about him that will make great quotes in the ads for that book. What we will get in that book is “repackaging” — not humble pie. A leopard cannot change its spots. His “retreat” is merely to a more defendable fort. The new James Lovelock is the same as the old James Lovelock — just his sales pitch will be more updated. Like all con men this guy has no shame.
I say again, it is repackaging, not any change of intent. A retreat to a more defendable fort. Strategically speaking he is disarming you. By renouncing those rediculous claims he takes a weapon out of your hands. The alarmists need such obviously ludicrious claims to be taken off the table. if one of their own renounces them they become far less harmful. They can then turn around and scorn you and laugh at you for bringing up such “far out” stuff while they are trying to discuss “serious” science.
That is how this is all going to go down. Mock this man, don’t praise him. There are no good intentions in him.
Eugene WR Gallun
By the way, I think gnomish came closest of anyone to the correct reaction to Lovelock’s statement. I might also add “wtf took you so long?”
Lovelock’s reversal is less than it seems to many of the posters here. It is true that he acknowledges it was over the top to talk of the reduction of humanity to a few breeding pairs, but he is writing a new book to guide us in how to avoid climate change.:
“The new book will discuss how humanity can change the way it acts in order to help regulate the Earth’s natural systems, performing a role similar to the harmonious one played by plants when they absorb carbon dioxide and produce oxygen.”
AGW is too big to fail.
“The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing” is the money quote.
however, not everyone has seen the light. Douglas lists his CAGW business interests:
23 April: Bloomberg: Paul Douglas: Forecast Calls for Climate-Smart Business (Part 2)
When will American business wake up to the scientific reality of climate change?
When the common-sense moderate middle wakes up…
I’m a moderate Republican, a Penn State-trained meteorologist and small-business owner, and I’m disheartened by my party’s refusal to acknowledge the physical evidence of climate change. The denial is disconcerting in and of itself, but it could also have serious and long-term economic consequences.
Action in the U.S. is being held back by a potent concoction of political mendacity about science, misleading talking points from anti-science groups, blind party loyalty (on all sides), investment barriers, century-old energy business models and generation gaps…
And the fact is, if we burn the carbon reserves still in the ground our kids and grandkids will inherit a radically different planet. It’s a moral, as well as technological challenge. Acknowledging climate science doesn’t make you a liberal. It makes you literate. If you’re in business, it can make you richer. If you’re in the military, it will leave you safer…
It’s difficult to understand politicians’ rejection of scientific facts. Maybe they think acknowledging such an all-encompassing environmental issue makes them look weak…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-23/forecast-calls-for-climate-smart-business-part-2-paul-douglas.html
I wasn’t aware Lovelock had made those apocalyptic 2100 projections. The man is fundamentally a fantasist, I guess. Occasionally a reality cannonball bursts one of his mental bubbles!
Better (really) late than never…
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
– John Maynard Keynes
Anthony says:
“Watch the true believers now trash him in the “doddering old man” style we’ve seen before.”
If they do that they will be right. Lovelock was deranged when he started talking about Gaia so don’t be surprised if he makes even less sense decades later.
The real problem is that the “Media” heed crackpots like Lovelock and Hansen.
He reminds me a bit about Speer.
An architect who wants to build something …a belief….for a cult…where Gaia can be worsipped.
And then, when the cult crumbles, he says he is sorry, he didnt really know he was wrong, and that the cause was evil. He didnt know so many people would suffer when his cult wanted them disappeared. So sorry!
I wonder if Richard Black will report this as quickly as he reported the theft of documents from the Heartland Institute.
brent says:
April 23, 2012 at 10:58 am
James Lovelock: Humans are too stupid to prevent climate change
One of the main obstructions to meaningful action is “modern democracy”, he added. “Even the best democracies agree that when a major war approaches, democracy must be put on hold for the time being. I have a feeling that climate change may be an issue as severe as a war. It may be necessary to put democracy on hold for a while.”
All the democracies on Earth put off elections for the duration of WWII. Not.
James Lovelock is an ambulatory climate simulation program — can’t forecast, can’t hindcast.
As one who follows the science (not just one sided mono-cultured climate mumbo jumbo or “b-og” science), I should mention that I certainly do not agree with these doom-sayer extremes. The man’s prophetic utterances have been touted as rubbish even from the CAGW camp.. As Joe Romm presented on his web site (NOW) backed up by 2009 statements, he has headlined appropriately: “James Lovelock Finally Walks Back from His Absurd Doomism, But He Still Doesn’t Follow Climate Science”.
I too totally agree. He was never in the alarmist (CAGW) camp but an Absurd Doom-sayer. And I agree he still DOES NOT follow Climate Science but has made it up as he goes along. His predictions by 2010 are memorable predictabilities in a great swath of science misreads and exaggeration.
Truly as one myself who went from skeptic (2005) to.firming to global warming reality, I had not heard of him until one day this organic globe argument was being thrown at me from oppositional debating side (anti-new age Christian late last year). It just shows you where I got my material from. I avoided extremes of both sides. Hence I avoided junk science like this.
As for a cooling climate – that is maligned as much as this utterly foolish man as well. That is extreme but just polar opposite extreme to this man. The middle path is always best.
.
Jeremy says:
April 23, 2012 at 6:09 pm
…they’re simply abandoning a sinking ship for a new alarm.
http://www.lastcallattheoasis.com/
^^^ Made by the same people who made An Inconvenient Truth.
“…the film features activist Erin Brockovich and such distinguished experts as Peter Gleick, Alex Prud’homme, Jay Famiglietti and Robert Glennon.”
So, it’s sci-fi comedy?
Oh Gaia, why have thou forsaken me?
The word ‘alarmism’ is far too polite for the egergious pronunciations of this psuedo-scientist. Nor is catastrophism. ‘Fanaticism’ is the correct term. And it was on a par with the most extremist of religious fanatics dotted around the world.
Whilst his reputation as a scientist may well be beyond redemption Lovelock should leave no stone unturned to try to correct the record among his former fellow CAGW cultists. There are still many impresionable young people who yet may thank him that they were given pause to ponder how they came to be so brain-washed.
MNBC is a start. But only a start. Take your walking stick or zimmer-frame or electric pony sir – and get out there and start making amends. Time is not on your side.
Allan MacRae says:
April 23, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Better (really) late than never…
“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
– John Maynard Keynes
When the facts change, I’ll change my mind. Since the facts have remained the same, I’ll just continue to cultivate my curmudgeonly image…
Reblogged this on The GOLDEN RULE and commented:
I think this is pretty meaningful, although you should read some of the contrary garbage in the associated comments,
““The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened,” Lovelock said.
…
“The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time… it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising — carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that.”
He was wrong, is prepared to admit this in the face of contradictory scientific evidence and is brave enough to do so in public.
Whilst other alarmists are seeking less honourable avenues and denying the obvious, James Lovelock should be praised for his honesty and realistic approach.
There is an interesting short video here from 2010 where he appear to make a reference to CRU
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8594000/8594545.stm