From the AGU Geophysical Research Letters: Recent geodetic unrest at Santorini Caldera
Key Points
- Santorini is deforming appreciably for the 1st time since its last eruption
- A dense GPS network has unprecedented data coverage
- Activity is centered in the region that blew-out in the 1650 BC Minoan Eruption
In 1650 B.C.E., a series of massive volcanic eruptions decimated the ancient seafaring Minoan civilization. Over the next 4 millennia, the largely subaquatic Santorini caldera had a series of smaller eruptions, with five such events within the past 600 years, and ending most recently in 1950. From the air, the Santorini caldera appears as a small cluster within the larger collection of Greek islands in the southern Aegean Sea. Following a 60-year lull, Santorini woke up on 9 January 2011 with a swarm of low-magnitude earthquakes.
A GPS monitoring system installed in the area in 2006 gave Newman et al. a stable background against which to compare the effects of the reawakened volcano. By June 2011 the regional GPS stations showed that they had been pushed 5-32 millimeters (0.2-1.3 inches) farther from the caldera than they had been just six months earlier. Following these initial results, the authors bolstered the GPS network and conducted a more extensive survey in September 2011, which confirmed that the land near the volcano was swelling. Continued monitoring from September through January 2012 showed the expansion was accelerating, reaching a rate of 180 mm (7 in) per year.
Using a model that interpreted the source of the deformation as an expanding sphere, the authors suggest that the expansion is due to an influx of 14.1 million cubic meters (498 million cubic feet) of magma into a chamber 4-5 kilometers (2.5-3.1 miles) below the surface. The authors suggest that the ongoing expansion is not necessarily the signal of an impending eruption, adding that the recent swelling represents only a fraction of that which led to the Minoan eruption. However, they warn that even a small eruption could trigger ash dispersion, tsunamis, landslides, or other potentially dangerous activity.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2012GL051286, 2012 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051286.
Title: Recent Geodetic Unrest at Santorini Caldera, Greece
Authors: Andrew V. Newman: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA;
Stathis Stiros, Fanis Moschas, and Vasso Saltogianni: Department of Civil Engineering, University of Patras, Greece;
Lujia Feng: Nanyang Technological University, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore;
Panos Psimoulis: Institute of Geodesy and Photogrammetry, Switzerland;
Yan Jiang: University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, USA;
Costas Papazachos, Dimitris Panagiotopoulos, Eleni Karagianni, and Domenikos Vamvakaris: Geophysical Laboratory, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece.
Abstract:
After approximately 60 years of seismic quiescence within Santorini caldera, in January 2011 the volcano reawakened with a significant seismic swarm and rapidly expanding radial deformation. The deformation is imaged by a dense network of 19 survey and 5 continuous GPS stations, showing that as of 21 January 2012, the volcano has extended laterally from a point inside the northern segment of the caldera by about 140 mm and is expanding at 180 mm/yr. A series of spherical source models show the source is not migrating significantly, but remains about 4 km depth and has expanded by 14 million m3 since inflation began. A distributed sill model is also tested, which shows a possible N-S elongation of the volumetric source. While observations of the current deformation sequence are unprecedented at Santorini, it is not certain that an eruption is imminent as other similar calderas have experienced comparable activity without eruption.
It is sorely tempting to see these things in pantheistic terms. The scrawny bitch Gaia, perpetually PMS’ing the other gods into fits of depression, finally gets taken out by Vulcan.
“Thou wishest to worry about carbon? Lo, I shall give thee some CARBON to worry about! Thou wishest to eliminate aircraft for their evil carbon-belching tendencies? I shall TOSS thy aircraft to the ground for years, yea unto the seventh generation!”
Scottish Sceptic says:
April 17, 2012 at 1:08 am
More daft, is why would anyone change “Before Christ” to “Before Christian Era”? …. because there is no such thing as “common era”.
Someone tried to tell me that BCE stood for “Before the Current Era,” and got very flustered when I asked if the Current Era began with the Industrial Revolution, Sputnik, the implosion of the Soviet Union, or Obama healing the planet immediately after his election…
Kinda sounds like a very large canon being readied for discharge. Wonder what pressure of CO2 would berequired to propel a 5km sphere of molten magma all the way to Brussels and whether or not it would leave a tell tale ‘hotspot’? They don’t like it up’em.
I’m surprised fracking hasn’t been implicated:)
Perhaps they have set fire to Greece to claim on the Insurance………
Scottish Sceptic says:
April 17, 2012 at 1:08 am
Its BC not BCE.
Scottish Sceptic, much of what you say about the BC,AD versus BCE, ACE designations makes sense, just as most of what you say here makes sense, but the fact of the matter is that some of us who are not of the Christian persuasion much prefer the silly newfangled way simply because it’s another small and symbolic means for us to to show a bit of resistance to a once religiously heavy-handed academia. Kind of like sticking it to the “man,” to use old hippie parlance. Some things are not logical; they are religious and cultural and serve as a means to reveal identies and to communicate attitudes. It used to be that only a few Jewish academics used the new designation, which immediately told the rest of us that they at least wouldn’t be trying to brow-beat or convert us by confusing theology with science, which happenned far too often not very long ago. It also told us that the user had the gumption to protest and to stand up to the inevitable ridicule and some pretty hateful commentary that followed from some of their colleagues. It’ll be fine, we can all still get along with such little differences and may all our disagreements be as petty as this one. Beats religious wars, pogroms and such, what?
The Toon-Army implication is serious: A 7 meter wave roiling around in the relatively shallow med is a dire prospect indeed!
“In 1650 B.C.E…”
I agree with Scottish Sceptic that B.C.E and C.E are ridiculous.
99+ percent of the people who read this blog use B.C and A.D. Who are you maintaining this blog for? Some tiny minority?
If you do not want to cater to your audience, close the blog.
Scottish Sceptic says: (April 17, 2012 at 1:08 am) “Its BC not BCE.” and much, much more…
Thanks, Scottish! Enlightening and amusing. Nice combination. Cheered this colonial’s evening up a lot.
Alan the Brit: “No, I am only here for a few days!”
Brilliant, Alan!
If Santorini blows its top again it’ll be a mix blessing for the warmists: on the one hand it’ll be welcomed as natural geoengineering by virtue of the sulphur compounds ejected into the upper atmosphere, but on the other there’ll be lots of that nasty evil CO2 stuff they keep harping on about. They are a confused bunch, aren’t they.
As an aside. In response to several comments about the calendar, perhaps it is time we migrated from the Gregorian Christian calendar to something more meaningful. Here’s my starter-for-ten for Day 1:
* Industrial Age (start of the industrial revolution – in a cotton mill in Manchester, England, if I remember rightly),
* Electromagnetic Age (Faraday’s discovery of electromagnetism),
* Atomic Age (but should it be discovery of radioactivity, atomic power, or atomic weapons?),
* Space Age (first orbital device, rather than first human into orbit).
Any one care to extend the list?
ChrisM says: (April 17, 2012 at 3:16 am) “Perhaps they have set fire to Greece to claim on the Insurance…”
Far, far too good to allow to pass without a salute, Chris!
Jim Barker says:
April 17, 2012 at 3:09 am
I’m surprised fracking hasn’t been implicated:)
The day is still young.
Joe Zarg says:
April 17, 2012 at 4:08 am
“In 1650 B.C.E…”
99+ percent of the people who read this blog use B.C and A.D. Who are you maintaining this blog for? Some tiny minority?
Kindly document your stats, please. And yes, Anthony maintains this blog just for me, and I use ACE and BCE. Go figure.
sophocles says:
April 17, 2012 at 12:43 am
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I recall watching a TV programme that mooted that the eruption explained the parting of the Red Sea when Moses led the Israelites out of Egypt. It mooted the idea that over low lying land, water was ecffectively sucked out as consequence of a Tsunami that was created by the collapse of the caldera.
It certainly was a big and devastating event. May even be linked to famines experienced by Eqypt around that time.
Of course precise dates and event with pre-history are dificult to know and ascertain with certainty.
Welcom to solar minimum..
http://img580.imageshack.us/img580/1899/earthquakevsimf.jpg
Mexico raises alert for Popocatepetl volcano.
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/4/17/worldupdates/2012-04-17T045114Z_1_BRE83G06D_RTROPTT_0_UK-MEXICO-VOLCANO&sec=Worldupdates
Disputin says:
April 17, 2012 at 2:29 am
“TheBigYinJames says:
April 17, 2012 at 12:24 am
Isn’t Santorini the most likely candidate for the fall of Atlantis legends? I remember seeing it on TV.”
The Atlantis legend (singular) comes from about half a page of Plato’s ‘Republic’. All the modern guff owes it’s existence to Ignatius Donnelly. You might take the view that “It must be true, I saw it on TV”, but then again…
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Try visiting http://www.robertschoch.com/plasma.html and http://www.gizapower.com/Articles.htm…
The story about Atlantis came from Egypt when Plato went there… What Chris Dunn from Giza Power said about granite sure got my attention… If you don’t know how we sculpture statue or objects out of granite blocks, google it..
Santorini is a spooky place. The town is built right on top of the edge of the volcano. Just a small burp and the whole place would be gone. Our ship sailed right into the middle of the thing. There is a big black pile of smoking stuff in the middle. Every place has it’s issues, but I would not want to live there.
The Aristotle University of Thessaloniki has a live earthquake website in English, which covers Greece. Santorini is no. 4.
Hey-
Buck up, Kev. There’s no use crying over this news about volcanoes all over the place. I know it means at least one more year that doesn’t fit our warming projections, but so what? We’ve never let a little thing like that stop us before.
Yes, I know Jim’s been been running around blubbering about how we’re losing, but that can work to our advantage, don’t you see? We’ll watch and see if the other side lets down their guard.
You’re forgetting that we have Gav in place “where all the action is” to help straighten out the data and keep Jim on a more even keel.
Yeah, I know that we might have to keep Jim a little closer at hand and restrict his travel, somewhat… people start taking a closer look at him- well, we can’t have that.
Wouldn’t do at all for one of the icons of the cause to end his days in a rubber room.
Best,
Mike
Ps Do I have to remind you to delete this email?
“Perhaps they have set fire to Greece to claim on the Insurance…”
The local steakhouse that burns to the ground under suspicious circumstance is always a victim of “Greek Lightning”. Your younger readers may not be aware of that old joke.
I recall being in a coffee line one morning, and there was a delay. Someone in the line complained, and I muttered “I blame global warming.” Immediately. an earnest young man agreed with me, and sincerely explained how CAGW was the cause of our delayed caffeine fix. Others in the line nodded in agreement.
I listened, awe-struck, and vowed to never again speak before having my morning coffee. I felt dizzy and light-headed. The colossal stupidity in that room was literally consuming all the oxygen.
IF Santorini erupts, be prepared for a plethora of articles citing manmade global warming, aka climate change, as the cause.
You heard it here first – global warming expands the Earth’s crust, creating weak points in the mantle and causing volcanos to erupt. OK, where’s my Nobel Prize?
ChrisM says:
April 17, 2012 at 3:16 am
Perhaps they have set fire to Greece to claim on the Insurance………
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The Greeks hired the Italians to cause a big fire but make it look like an accident.
Dave (UK) says:
April 17, 2012 at 4:14 am
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Invention of the internal combustion engine—-the modern era.