An X-5 class solar flare just occurred from region 1429, the large active sunspot group seen below.
NOAA Bulletin from the Space Weather Prediction Center:
2012-03-07 01:03 Strong Solar Eruption; Earth-Directed CME Likely
An R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout is now in progress, beginning about 7:00 p.m. EST today. The site of the eruption, previously active Region 1429, is now near center disk, so there’s high-potential of an earth-directed CME (coronal mass ejection). In addition, expect the imminent beginning of a Solar Radiation Storm. Analysis now occurring on both fronts, watch here for updates.
2012-03-07 04:24 CMEs: One Arrives, Another Likely Tomorrow
The CME that erupted late on March 4 passed ACE around 0400 UTC March 7 (11:00 p.m. EST March 6). Look for G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity in the next few hours. Another CME, part of the recent R3 (strong) Radio Blackout event at 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE about one day hence. Predictions are still being refined on this one. Finally a Solar Radiation Storm is now building as the higher energies are showing a response to the recent eruption. The S1 (minor) threshold should be surpassed in the next few hours. Updates here as conditions warrant.
Here’s the GOES x-ray flux plot capturing the event:
Here’s the event captured on SAM
Here’s the group 1429 close up from SDO HMI:
NASA’s Spaceweather.com reports that:
MAJOR SOLAR FLARE: Earth-orbiting satellites have just detected an X5-class solar flare from big sunspot AR1429. The blast peaked on March 7th at 00:28 UT. Radiation storms and radio blackouts are possible
High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on March 6th and 7th. Sunspot AR1429 has hurled two CMEs into space since it emerged over the weekend. Neither cloud is heading directly toward Earth, but both could deliver glancing blows to our planet’s magnetic field. NOAA forecasters say there is a 30% to 40% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24-48 hours.
NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme UV flash:
This eruption hurled a bright CME into space. First-look data from STEREO-B are not sufficient to determine if the cloud is heading for Earth. Our best guess is “probably, yes, but not directly toward Earth.” A glancing blow to our planet’s magnetosphere is possible on March 8th or 9th.
Looks like we dodged the bullet for the major bullseye from those, but some disruption is likely from this last X-5 event. We’ll monitor and report as needed.
WUWT’s Solar reference page has all the latest images and data here
h/t to Roger Sowell
UPDATE from spaceweather.com:
GEOMAGNETIC STORM UPDATE: A CME propelled toward Earth by this morning’s X5-class solar flare is expected to reach our planet on March 8th at 0625 UT/725EST/1025PST (+/- 7 hr). Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, who prepared the CME’s forecast track, say the impact could spark a strong-to-severe geomagnetic storm. Sky watchers at all latitudes should be alert for auroras.
As one who dreads traveling by airplane, but will in the days ahead panicking the entire time as I just do…please tell me this type of thing doesn’t, say, knock out an airliners electrical functions, causing it to plummet to Earth??? (quiver, tremble…)
REPLY: Such an event has never been observed to my knowledge. Remember, airliners take direct lightning strikes and survive, and that has way more energy than solar flares/cme’s when they reach Earth. Relax, suggest you make liberal use of the adult beverage service. – Anthony
Here we go. These can be quite destructive.
A little of topic, but definitely for a solar thread.
Why do not stars have a ‘GHG’ problem? Stars start my fusing hydrogen to helium, both species have very little X-ray absorbance. As they begin their burn they make larger atoms, in trace amounts.Shouldn’t these heaver elements constantly absorb, the re-radiate inwards, half the energy they absorb?
As there is a continuous increase in heavier, and more X-ray absorbing, elements, should stars go into run away heating?
If not, why?
Supersymmertry at CM some Multilepton
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/supersymmetry-at-cms-some-multilepton.html#more
http://science.slashdot.org/story/12/03/02/1438241/one-in-eight-chance-of-a-financially-catastrophic-solar-storm-by-2020 has a slightly different take on the chances of a catastrophe caused by activity on the sun.
My bad. This is totally my fault. My Mom always told me, “Don’t stare at the sun or bad things will happen.” Well today, I ignored her, and did. I’m pretty sure that’s why it’s sending us a solar flare.
Also, things suddenly seem pretty blurry. Is that happening with everyone, or just me?
karlac616 says:
March 6, 2012 at 6:45 pm
As one who dreads traveling . . .
But not in an auto, apparently. Check the modes of transportation for chances of accidents and such. Getting to the airport is more an issue than the airplane, and as Anthony says, relax.
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I wonder what we will learn from this event? Although very strong, its aim is off. Still interesting.
A bit serendipitous given the BBC’s Horizon program last night (UTC).
Excellent. Available here for those with access to BBC iPlayer.
Kevin says:
March 6, 2012 at 7:49 pm
“Also, things suddenly seem pretty blurry. Is that happening with everyone, or just me?”
Kevin,
You ARE a little blurry! But everything else seems OK…. must be just you?!
MtK
No need to panic about any more of these after July 1st, Julia Gillard’s Carbon Tax will come into play in Australia, this tax levied in Canberra will lower the temperature around the world. As solar activity has an effect on the world temperature she will dedicate a percentage to this problem, if the Greens allow it. /sarc off…Bring on the election
DocMartyn says:
March 6, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Most experts expect our star, the Sun, to continue to combine hydrogen until it becomes a red giant, which will eventually engulf our Earth about 7 billion years from now. After that, heavier elements will continue to combine in our Sun’s core until eventually iron is reached, and a few seconds after that happens, it will implode then explode in a super nova. (Or maybe not so “super”.)
After the debris field clears, our Sun will be a relatively dead white dwarf. But we won’t care–we’ll be long gone by then.
We have some partially clear skies in the Seattle area tonight! Maybe, if there ARE aurora tonight, we just might be able to see them!!! Oh Please… Oh Please!
I haven’t seen really dramatic northern lights since the mid ’70s, in central Wisconsin. In the summer of 1974 (or was it 1975…. hmmm), I returned home (SW end of Big Green Lake) in the wee hours of the morning, on a very dark ‘no moon’ night. When I climbed out of the car, I realized I could see aurora to the north. As my night vision sharpened further, I could see the aurora were streaming all over the sky, even somewhat south of my position! These were no wimpy wisps of gossamer silver – no! They were shimmering waves of silver, gold, and green, rippling from the northern horizon to south of my local ‘overhead’ view! When I realized it was not a momentary display, I ran in the house, grabbed a lawn chair and a couple of beers, and watched until false dawn was liming the eastern horizon.
I’d really like to see something like that again… but it might just be a real ‘once in a life time’ display. Que lastima… But I’ll be watching.
MtK
This isn’t going to alter the Van Allen Belts and make machines come alive and attack us is it? Every time that happens I have to send so much of my disposable income replacing the homicidal hardware that it really affects my hallucinogenics budget.
“karlac616 says:
March 6, 2012 at 6:45 pm
As one who dreads traveling by airplane,”
karlac…as Anthony suggests,relax,have a couple of brewskis,and flirt with the good looking stewardesses!
After a 22 yr stint being a flight engineer and over 10K flying hours,and only two lighting strikes and 3 “tricky” landings,I can assure you NO aircraft has ever crashed due to solar activity. You have a better chance hurting yourself going down the aisle to the bathroom.
Rats.All the great activity,and here in Edmonton,AB,Canuckland, we have low clouds and snow. Ah well,maybe next time.
A major east coast university, backed by certain experts at NASA, will release a study tomorrow linking man made global warming to major disruptions in the sun’s weather as well as significant negative effects on women’s reproductive rights.
If I am not mistaken, here appears to be something wrong with the plotting of the latest point on NASA’s Spaceweather sunspot count graph. The point seems to have been inserted prior to the previous point, instead of after it. This appears on both their website and WUWT’s solar reference page. (This is obvious to anyone who looked it a week ago, before the graph was updated). Or have they dramatically revised down the previous data point, and is this unusual?
On the topic of flares. What was the estimated power of the Carrignton event? X-?
As an amateur sun watcher, I would take a stab that the Carrington Event was at least X100 or so (no kidding)– we haven’t seen anything like it again (yet). About time the sun wakes up. I think the sunspot numbers were in the 20s last week. Today http://www.spaceweather.com says its up to 109.
Kevin says:
March 6, 2012 at 7:49 pm
“My bad. This is totally my fault. My Mom always told me, “Don’t stare at the sun or bad things will happen.” Well today, I ignored her, and did. I’m pretty sure that’s why it’s sending us a solar flare.
Also, things suddenly seem pretty blurry. Is that happening with everyone, or just me?”
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Oh, I get it… you were trying to use a magnifying glass to light your uh, pipe.
Hoping Leif happens by here …
Tonight’s BBC Horizon program included a segment featuring Stathis Ilonidis from Stanford about helioseismology, on site at Big Bear. Was region 1429 detected before it surfaced?
There was also a segment featuring Matt Penn describing the L & P effect where he ended by saying that may mean space weather is calmer in future. But curiously this seemed to be abruptly edited before he’d finished what he was saying. Throughout the program there was the theme that “solar experts expect violent solar storms over the next two years” but no explanation why. Aside from the spikiness of weak cycles is there something else you guys have figured out, where does this two year theme come from?
“On the topic of flares. What was the estimated power of the Carrignton event? X-?”
I believe you are correct, Barry. X minus question mark is the answer. Now there are some who might say the answer is X minus dot dot dot question mark, but, imo, those dots are ambiguous at best, and misleading at worst. They simply don’t belong in the equation.
My two cents.
in case you have not seen it:
NASA sees the light?
R.F. Hirsch :March 5, 2012 at 6:24 pm (Tips and Notes)
quoted NASA http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2011/
“…. because the combined effect of all forcings is less than that of greenhouse gases alone, and much of the greenhouse gas forcing has been “used up” in causing the warming of the past century/b>. It is apparent that the solar forcing is not negligible in comparison with the net climate forcing.….”
As a ham radio operator – ‘Oh crap’. Hopefully it will be short lived.
The point of eruption on the sun is NOT in line with the Earth, it is also above the sun’s equator. Okay, it is an expanding bubble that could graze the Earth. Why all the panic mongering? The Earth has experienced bigger CMEs in the recent past without catastrophic effect.
Proton flux hit GOES
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Proton.gif