Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
A reader who posts under the name “tokyoboy” sent a link to a very interesting sea level record from the Japanese Meteorological Agency. It covers the period 1906–2010, and when I first saw it I thought they’d made some mistake.
So I got their data, and plotted it up. I also got the satellite records for the area. Finally, I got records of one of the sites that the Japanese used, but I obtained it from the PSMSL records. All of them agree very well, so I am forced to assume that there are no obvious errors in the Japanese records. Figure 1 shows the results:
Figure 1. Japanese sea level records. Two records marked “Japan” are from the citation above. They are averages of long-term records since 1906 (4 sites, blue line), and shorter-term records since 1960 (16 sites, red line). Satellite records (green, 1993-2010) are from the University of Colorado interactive wizard. Wajima records (purple, 1930-2010) are from the PSMSL.
You can see why I thought there was a mistake. Sea level around Japan rose steadily from 1906 to 1950. Then it dropped for fifteen years and bounced around until 1980. Since then it has risen again, but it is about 20 mm lower than it was in 1950.
Now, I can’t find anything at all wrong with the data. The satellite record agrees with the Japanese averages, as does the PSMSL record. So we have to assume it is accurate.
But it is unlike any record I’ve seen of the global average change in sea level. That global record climbs steadily over the century.
I’m happy for suggestions and comments, as I’m in mystery over this one. It’s one of the great things about the climate, always more puzzles to solve.
w.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
My thanks to Paul Vaugan, who has posted this link to the explanation of my question from the Japanese Met. Service.
They say the answer to my question is wind. Plain old garden variety wind, piling the ocean up around Japan.
Dang … I do love this website. There’s no end of the things that I can learn here.
Best to all, I’m gonna think about wind now …
w.
climatereason said @ur momisugly February 1, 2012 at 1:43 am
Yes, I have read several of your thought provoking pieces. This latest brought back fond memories of holidaying in Marazion when I was a teenager: Cornish ice-cream, Dad getting legless on the local cider, losing our dog and discovering her following a man with the exact same colour trousers as Dad…
I look forward to your next essay 🙂
thepompousgit
My dog is now 17 but she would always follow the ice cream rather than the trousers 🙂
tonyb
“I am forced to assume that there are no obvious errors in the Japanese records.”
That will be a relief for the guys and gals at the JMA. You know what they would have had to do if you had found an error.
“But it is unlike any record I’ve seen of the global average change in sea level.”
Just part of standard Japanese weirdness.
RoHa says:
February 1, 2012 at 4:52 pm
Your naive assumption that all of the worlds’ records are in perfect shape is quite touching. I was more interested in if, for example, the Japanese records had been adjusted in some fashion not used by the PSMSL, or if they disagreed with the satelllites, or if I were just misunderstanding what they had done. It’s bog-common due diligence to check your data, and anyone in the climate science world who blindly believes in someone’s data is very foolish.
w.
Willis, compare Japanese sea level with All India monsoon rainfall index for some insights. And Important: I strongly recommend reading up on what climatologists call “thermal wind”.
Strong equator-pole temperature gradients create strong equator-pole pressure gradient forces. For example, look at the very steep winter temperature gradient along the east coasts of Eurasia & North America…
2m Temperature:
http://i55.tinypic.com/dr75s7.png
Cross-reference with the following, noting the flashy spots…
Net Surface Heat Flux:
http://oi54.tinypic.com/334teyt.jpg
Column-integrated Heating:
http://i55.tinypic.com/317jchy.png
Coriolis does some deflecting, so equator-pole pressure gradients end up driving westerly winds…
10m Wind:
http://i44.tinypic.com/28rgyzo.png
Near-Surface (850hPa) Wind:
http://i52.tinypic.com/nlo3dw.png
Near-Surface (850hPa) Wind — Polar View:
http://i54.tinypic.com/29vlc0x.png
So it’s no surprise to see how water gets tossed around in the atmosphere…
Column-integrated Water Vapor Flux with their Convergence:
http://i51.tinypic.com/126fc77.png
And it’s the wind that drives the major ocean gyres…
Wind-Driven Ocean Currents:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/67/Ocean_currents_1943_%28borderless%293.png
Next, look at it vertically…
Zonal Wind Vertical Profile:
http://i51.tinypic.com/34xouhx.png
Note the ~200hPa red spots — a few other perspectives on them:
200hPa Wind:
http://i52.tinypic.com/zoamog.png
200hPa Wind — Polar View:
http://i52.tinypic.com/cuqyt.png
Now, I’ll just bowl a bunch of other stuff at you in case you have time to work on your mulivariate visualization…
Precipitable Water:
http://i52.tinypic.com/9r3pt2.png
Net Surface Solar Radiation:
http://i53.tinypic.com/2r5pw9k.png
Zonal Mean Temperature Vertical Profile:
http://i56.tinypic.com/1441k5d.png
Kinetic Energy of High Frequency Variation at 500 hPa:
http://i41.tinypic.com/8zenb7.png
Isotachs & Pressure at 550K:
http://i56.tinypic.com/14t0kns.png
Low Level Cloud Cover:
http://i52.tinypic.com/auw1s0.png
Number of Tropical Cyclone Days:
http://i44.tinypic.com/9thc8j.png
Omega @ur momisugly 700hPa:
http://i53.tinypic.com/28tvqt1.png
Vertical Velocity:
http://i54.tinypic.com/2ch4x28.png
Mean Sea Level Pressure:
http://i54.tinypic.com/swg11c.png
Take a minute to compare the last 2 with the pattern of 10m wind (way up near the top of the list).
Seasonal ITCZ Limits:
(a) http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/global52.jpg
(b) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/ITCZ_january-july.png
Credit: Climatology animations have been assembled using JRA-25 Atlas [ http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/atlas-tope.htm ] images. JRA-25 long-term reanalysis is a collaboration of Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) & Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI).
This is just the beginning of the story.
Missed a few…
Snow Depth:
http://i39.tinypic.com/2yywnlh.png
Precipitation:
http://i42.tinypic.com/2njypw9.png
Monthly Maximum of Daily Precipitation:
http://i41.tinypic.com/34gasr7.png
Evaporation Minus Precipitation:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2isvynb.png
—
And let me re-emphasize these gems:
=
200hPa Wind:
http://i52.tinypic.com/zoamog.png
200hPa Wind — Polar View:
http://i52.tinypic.com/cuqyt.png
=
Yes, they’re important.
@ur momisugly Willis
“Your naive assumption that all of the worlds’ records are in perfect shape is quite touching”
Eh? Where did I make that assumption? You said that you assumed there were no errors in the JMA figures. I said that if you had found an error the JMA people would have had to deal with their shame in the tradtional manner.
No mention of all the world’s records.
RoHa says:
February 2, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Ah, humor, they would have had to commit seppuku. I missed your meaning entirely, quite clever actually, so my apologies, my bad.
Best to you,
w.
Tonyb: “the sarellite record” — Is that specific to Japanese sarellites?
:0
😉
You miss the point, which is hiding in plain sight. They don’t give a rap about the “poor world”, or hate the “rich world”. It’s the intermediate process, the TRANSFER that they want to implement and be in charge of!
Therein lies untold power, and mind-numbing opportunities for skimming and deflection.