Guest post by Indur M. Goklany
Lately, North Korea has been very much in the news. Its population—or should I say, “captive population”—greets the passing of the baton from one ruler to another in the same spirit as “Kim is dead, long live Kim!” probably because they are unaware of the following satellite photos. Many readers here have probably encountered them previously.
East Asia at night. Top photo from 1994-95 which outlines North Korea is from MSNBC at http://photoblog.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/19/9564314-satellites-document-north-koreas-dark-ages?pc=25&sp=25. Bottom photo is from 2009. Source: http://agora. ex.nii.ac.jp/~kitamoto/research/rs/stable-lights.html.en.
Not only do the photographs illustrate the lack of economic development in North Korea, they show that it has one of the lightest carbon footprints in the world. And the various indicators of human well-being reflect that dark reality, as shown in the following table.
It wasn’t always thus. In the early 1950s, to the extent data are available, the two countries were about equal in terms of economic development and human well-being. In fact, in 1960, according to the World Bank data, North Korea’s life expectancy was marginally higher than in the South (55.2 yrs vs. 53.0 yrs). Of course, the North’s data may have been fluffed up a little bit by its government before being adopted by the World Bank, but I don’t know for sure.
But over time, South Korea’s freer economic system pulled it ahead. Then, the loss of external support because of the collapse of the Soviet Union turned North Korea into a basket case in the 1990s (see the following figure). Finally, the South also became more democratic and its economic and social systems became more transparent. The consequences are evident in the above photographs and the following figure.
Per capita GDP and per capita CO2 emissions, 1950-2008. Sources: Maddison (2008) and World Bank (2011).
The photographs and the figure are, among other things, also a stark warning of the dangers of excessive zeal in limiting a country’s carbon footprint.
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It looks like the official story on the death of Kim Jong-il is being questioned:
thestar . com [Toronto Star]
How did Kim Jong-il really die? Spy agency doubts official story
“South Korean spymasters, stung by being caught unaware when North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died, are challenging the official version of his death.”
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/1105767–how-did-kim-jong-il-really-die-spy-agency-doubts-official-story?bn=1
Mike Bromley the Kurd says:
December 21, 2011 at 10:54 pm
The blinding glare of Utopia.
You’re aware that there are individuals who would willingly emigrate to NK if the NK government would allow it?
And how did North Korea get those nuclear reactors? Bill Clinton OKed them and Donald Rumsfeld sold them. Good old bipartisan boogy-man creation!
It is true the people of N. Korea are so starved they do not weigh enough to leave a foot print.
The late Kim, who was well fed, had his own lane reserved 24/7 for his personal use when being driven about town so there would be no need to clear traffic even though there was little traffic day or night.
Dictators always take care of themselves very well giving themselves special privilege and ripping off the wealth of the nation for themselves. And there is something strange about people with un-restrained power, the more they have the more they want to use and abuse.
There is also something about free people who have to be suppressed to prevent them from advancing themselves, and that is where the climate alarmists and willing politicians and regulators come into the picture to save a free people from themselves and from their freedom.
There can be no doubt that RNK, in it’s present state, serves the purposes of China. It must serve the west also, as we have enabled the government, thru aid to sustain the population, while all resources are diverted to enable the military/elite. This is exactly the plan the UN would like globally, where all resources are controlled and delegated by them.
Like all organizations, once they obtain control and power, it is only a matter of time, until hijacked by some psychopath. Society has never learned to avoid psychopathic leaders and our governments are designed to provide easy access for such. They are the world’s leaders, every single one.
Btw: plutonium is not really dangerous, until configured such that neutron emission rises exponentially to detonation. It is a great tool, if you are a psychopath. The hard part is obtaining 13 pounds of plutonium. After that, any idiot psychopath, can construct one, as long as physical size, and maximum yield, is not important. GK
@Hector Pascal
Ok, I pulled a Patton. Sorry. Of course, you’re right, we should include all of those that have served to preserve our liberty in our gratitude.
4 eyes says:
December 22, 2011 at 2:13 am
I’ll give it a go: The best thing about North Korea is that it is an icon of communism. Everybody knows the worst place to live in the world would be N. Korea, even with their horrible “dear leader” now dead and gone. As a consequence, anyplace else would be more beautiful. And that’s a very sad thing to say considering the potential of their humble people (they’re closely related to S. Koreans, of course) and the natural beauty of their peninsular nation.
Willis
Re: “Then, the loss of external support because of the collapse of the Soviet Union turned North Korea into a basket case in the 1990s (see the following figure).”
The primary driver was the loss of subsidized diesel fuel compounded by North Korea’s lack of hard currency earnings to purchase fuel on the open market. This gives an extremely hard lesson on the consequences of fuel shortages.
See Fuel and Famine: Rural Energy Crisis in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea James H. Williams, David Von Hippel and Peter Hayes, Policy Paper #46, March 2000 ISBN 0-934367-62-8, ISSN 1088-2081
Copyright © 2000 by the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation
igcc3.ucsd.edu/pdf/policypapers/PP46.pdf
Consequent to the Soviet Union’s collapse, North Korea’s
Oil supply dropped from 2.7 to 1.1 million tons from 1990 to 1996.
“Road and rail freight transport were reduced to 40% of 1990 values by 1996”
With no diesel fuel to run coal trains to fertilizer plants,
Fertilizer collapsed from 600 to 100 thousand tons.
Spare parts also disappeared. With no tractor parts, fuel or fertilizer compounded by weather,
Grain production collapsed from 9 to 2.5 million tons.
Consequently some 900,000 to 3.5 million people starved.
WARNING: Fuel importing countries are currently on a similar though slower track.
Global oil consumption has exceeded discoveries since 1980.
Alternatives are NOT being developed as fast enough to prevent a downturn.
Lloyd’s of London is warning of global fuel shortages starting between 2012 and 2015.
Sustainable Energy Security: Strategic Risks and Opportunities for Industry Lloyd’s 360 Risk Insight, Chapham House
The Impending World Energy Mess 9th ASPO 2011
For application to other fuel importing countries see:
Peak Net Exports—A Five Year Retrospective and a Look Forward Jeffrey Brown & Samuel Foucher, ASPO 2011
Note particularly Available Net Exports peaked in 2005 and are down 13% by 2011.
Saudi Net Oil Exports appear to have peaked in 2005. See westexas Saudi Oil Exports Versus US Oil Prices
2002-2010 (EIA, Total Liquids)
2002: 7.1 mbpd & $26
2003: 8.3 mbpd & $31
2004: 8.6 mbpd & $42
2005: 9.1 mbpd & $57
2006: 8.4 mbpd & $66
2007: 8.0 mbpd & $72
2008: 8.4 mbpd & $100
2009: 7.3 mbpd & $62
2010: 7.4* mbpd & $79
We need a priority on developing alternative fuels to keep our economies going – and reduce the consequences of the impending lack of available transport fuel as shown by North Korea.
David L. Hagen says:
“”We need a priority on developing alternative fuels to keep our economies going.”
No, we need a priority on developing the immense fossil fuels available within the U.S. Alternative fuels are a waste of time, money and resources.
These photos are clearly not representative of the true comforts of life in the NKorean capital. UV photography would clearly show the people warming themselves by the campfires lighted in the upper stories of the high rise apartment buildings in Pyongyang. So there.
Smokey
Thanks for pointing out the misunderstanding of “alternative”.
By “Alternative fuels” I mean everything but fuels from light crude oil. i.e., “Alternative” includes synfuels from “immense fossil fuels”, including oil sands, heavy oil, coal – and solar thermal etc.
We need alternative fuels with EROI >> 4 to survive.
(I agree that with an EROI of ~ 1, Ethanol from grain does NOT qualify. See:
Seeking to Understand the Reasons for Different Energy Return on Investment (EROI) Estimates for Biofuels, Charles A.S. Hall 1,*, Bruce E. Dale 2 and David Pimentel 3)
Conventional shale oil is marginal: See
Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of Oil Shale, Cutler J. Cleveland * and Peter A. O’Connor
I expect synfuels from solar thermal will eventually have the highest EROI and lowest cost.
See Charles Hall on EROI
Especially: Special Issue “New Studies in EROI (Energy Return on Investment)” (available as Open Access)
See posts on EROI at TheOilDrum.com and articles on EROI & fuel.
Are the photos from space an example of astrophysicists finding a “black hole” here on earth?
North Korea should become a Mecca for astronomical observatories. No light pollution.
To get a flavour of what happened during the 90’s when the Soviets dropped support you should read “Nothing to Envy” by Barbara Demick when 20% of the population died through starvation.
I suppose we should be grateful that they did their bit to “save the planet” by reducing the amount CO2 “pollution”.
http://www.amazon.com/Nothing-Envy-Ordinary-Lives-North/dp/0385523912/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1324573738&sr=8-1
Also of note … North Korea has been completely deforested due to government-mandated planting of marginal land and wholesale chopping of remaining trees for fuelwood. This explains why they have recurring problems with flooding! In contrast South Korea has run one of the world’s most successful reforestation campaigns.
Even the figure of 3.2 tons/capita in N Korea paints a misleadingly genourous picture, when you consider that most of that “per capita” footprint is socialised rather than privatised. In other words, it is largely the result of the states military apparatus, state factories and state bureaucracies.
Once the workers go home at the end of the day, they leave their per capitas behind.
David L. Hagen,
Thanks for pointing out that we’re on the same page.
Yes, but their views of the night sky and constellations must be fantastic!!
According to Willis’ thesis North Korea must not have had access to cheap energy. All the coal mines are in the south, presumably.
“Truthseeker says:
December 21, 2011 at 11:12 pm
North Korea is clearly the CO2 free paradise that the IPCC want for the whole world. I know, lets move the UN to Pyongyang and let those bureaucrats enjoy what they want for everyone else.”
Yeah,.
The UN would probably like to model the World on N.Korea for their Agenda 21 & CO2 AGW/CC causes.
While us the Peasants would be going around pushing/pulling carts or riding bicycles for transport, etc. The UN bureaucrats and their ilk would be driving around in their limos.!
In Kim’s North Korea, Cars Are Scarce Symbols of Power, Wealth
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a31VJVRxcJ1Y
I bet the NK’s are reducing global warming with at least 0.0000000000000000000000001 degrees.
David L. Hagen says:
December 22, 2011 at 9:10 am
Hi David. How’s it going at the old hangout?
“By “Alternative fuels” I mean everything but fuels from light crude oil. i.e., “Alternative” includes synfuels from “immense fossil fuels”, including oil sands, heavy oil, coal – and solar thermal etc. ”
You should probably be a little more specific in use of alternative because I think most of the world, or at least enough of it to cause unending confusion, considers “alternative” fuels to be those which aren’t produced from fossil fuel.
“We need alternative fuels with EROI >> 4 to survive.”
We need fuel cheaper than oil at $100/bbl to survive and prosper that’s for sure. The recession is going to last for decades without energy dropping in price to $30/bbl equivalent or below. At 3x the price there’s a lot of downgrading of lifestyles that has to work its way through the system before the books balance.
“I expect synfuels from solar thermal will eventually have the highest EROI and lowest cost.”
As you probably from our associations over the years I think you’re dead wrong there. Solar thermal is a small boondoggle trying to become a major disaster. First of all it doesn’t produce liquid fuels. Nukes aren’t terribly cost efficient, about twice as much as combined cycle natural ggas, so if electricity was the problem we could solve that and keep a respectable ROI. The problem is infrastructure. We don’t have distribution infrastructure for anywhere near enough additional electricity to put a dent in liquid fuel use. In some cases such as commercial trucking and air transporation electricity is about as useful as tits on a tomcat as there is no known means of acheiving the portable energy density those applications must have.
Synthetic biology is the answer. Scatter some tiny seeds for a geneticially engineered organism over an acre of marginal land like what’s in the Texas panhandle and what a solid green mat grow without help that has a capillary/veinous system in it that collects vegetable oil into taps that go straight into waiting tanker trucks or something like that. It would be suitable for immediate use in unmodified diesel engines, boilers, and furnaces and is tankable, storable, and transportable with existing infrastructure.
This will be off the shelf technology sooner than anything else. Mark my words. The neat thing is we’re not talking a cost/effective replacement for fossil fuels but such a huge reduction in the cost of energy it’ll bring about a whole new era of civilization. Probably the biggest obstacle is all the powerful applecarts that would be upset by virtually free abundant energy. How many energy companies will have to find a new schtick? They won’t go away quietly is my bet.
Russia intentionally lowered support during the 90s in order to further impoverish the North Koreans and make them, ultimately, even more dependent. It’s a strategy. Sick, for sure, but it is a strategy. They did not want to see an outcome like Germany directly on their border.
BTW – the Kims are not real native Koreans, they are ethnic Koreans of Russian background, installed by Stalin.
@David Hagen
My apology for the last. I missed the “synfuel” part of solar thermal. That’s still a boondoggle. The problem with solar is still a biggie even if you’re using the heat to assist in fractionation or some other means of producing liquid fuels from biomass. The problem is sunlight is too dilute and requires great cost and ongoing maintenance in any concentration schemes to turn it from low quality heat to high quality heat. With biomass I’m assuming you’re talking agricultural waste which must still be collected and transported to where the conversion takes place. It also accelerates degradation of soils when it isn’t plowed under to lighten the soil and replace nutrients. That’s a non-starter almost as much as ethanol. The only real answer is a bioengineered organism that does the job all in one step on marginal soil using brackish or unpottable waste water. It can fix its own nitrogen and pretty much need no care or replishment of nutruients as hydrocarbon fuels need contain nothing more than oxygen, hydrogen, and carbon which use up only air and water.
Within 30 years we’ll need laws that limit how much CO2 can be removed from the air because it’s a universal ready source of carbon and with carbon you can build all sorts of useful things from diamond to pencils and liquid fuels and everything in between. Mark my words. Atmospheric carbon will become a limited resource in the not too distant future. Both of may live to see it if we’re average-lucky.
Stunning example for a earth sensitive way to live. CO2 output is really low. Not even the concentration camps are emitting light. Why shouldnt be the nezt meeting of the AGW-circus be in the development model of the world. If critical minds come and speak out, …
Look at poor South Korea with all that consum terror. They, we all have a lot to learn.