NOAA’s Space weather prediction center released their solar cycle progression updates, and it shows one of the largest jumps for all common solar metrics since cycle 24 began.
Of course we know that the sunspot number has jumped significantly partly due to the recent large sunspot group that released X-class flares, but there’s more than that.
Big gains were seen in 10.7 CM radio flux as well as the Ap geomagnetic index.
As always, be sure to check the WUWT solar reference page for the latest information.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/
UPDATE: Here’s the daily SSN’s from SIDC
20110901 2011.666 85 59 26
20110902 2011.669 88 72 16
20110903 2011.672 91 71 20
20110904 2011.674 68 48 20
20110905 2011.677 74 53 21
20110906 2011.680 58 38 20
20110907 2011.682 47 31 16
20110908 2011.685 35 27 8
20110909 2011.688 47 28 19
20110910 2011.691 52 33 19
20110911 2011.693 61 37 24
20110912 2011.696 90 53 37
20110913 2011.699 94 54 40
20110914 2011.702 110 64 46
20110915 2011.704 124 89 35
20110916 2011.707 124 86 38
20110917 2011.710 104 73 31
20110918 2011.713 93 79 14
20110919 2011.715 92 78 14
20110920 2011.718 80 68 12
20110921 2011.721 70 61 9
20110922 2011.724 71 56 15
20110923 2011.726 59 59 0
20110924 2011.729 75 68 7
20110925 2011.732 79 69 10
20110926 2011.734 73 73 0
20110927 2011.737 67 67 0
20110928 2011.740 71 71 0
20110929 2011.743 83 83 0
20110930 2011.745 75 75 0
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When comparing SIDC with NOAA, SIDC has been counting higher than NOAA for the past 6 months straight. Compare the pink line with the dark green line. This would perhaps be expected as the spots grow in size and the Waldmeier weighting system kicks in. (the Waldmeier system is only used at the SIDC pilot station Locarno)
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/images/lay_monthly.png
Sunspot contrast has been rising slowly since SC23/24 minimum as expected during a weak cycle. The flawed method of L&P is now also showing this.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/images/sunspot_darkness.png
Geoff Sharp says:
October 6, 2011 at 2:02 am
Your 2nd graph shows a nice step change.
So does mine: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/TempGr/uSC24vs13_14.GIF
(bottom line).
I can’t believe Locarno is still the pilot station for the SSN after all this.
I like Vukcevic’s model. So far it’s holding firm.
Other high profile experts have demonstrated how little they know about old SOL. It’s easy to pick a winner when your allowed to keep changing your prediction right up to the finish line.
Geoff Sharp says:
October 6, 2011 at 2:02 am
When comparing SIDC with NOAA, SIDC has been counting higher than NOAA for the past 6 months straight. Compare the pink line with the dark green line. This would perhaps be expected as the spots grow in size and the Waldmeier weighting system kicks in. (the Waldmeier system is only used at the SIDC pilot station Locarno)
You do not know what you are talking about. You assume that the k-factor for NOAA is 0.6, but it is not. It is 0.68. Each observer has his own k-factor, which can vary from 0.5 to 2 depending on the observer. The issue is not what the k-factor is, but whether a given station [SIDC considered as one] has a constant k-factor over time. SIDC has not, and thus is undercounting compared to itself. The weighting system has nothing to do with this.
Well, I don’t know about the weather on the sun, but I do know it’s getting colder here where I live.\
In other news, the “cold fusion” E-Cat is supposed to be tested today so perhaps the next burst of sunspot activity will be right here on Mud.
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2011-10/06/e-cat-cold-fusion
Sunspot says:
October 6, 2011 at 3:45 am
when your allowed to keep changing your prediction right up to the finish line.
You have not understood what the NASA ‘forecast really is. It is NOT a prediction of the cycle based on theory or such, but simply a fit of current data to a standard shaped solar cycle. It is just as valid as your daily weather forecast that is based [as it should be] on data right up to ‘the finish line’.
Guest says:
October 6, 2011 at 3:38 am
I can’t believe Locarno is still the pilot station for the SSN after all this.
It doesn’t matter which station is the pilot station as long as the station has a long record and is manned by experienced people. Locarno fulfills those criteria as no other, so is the station to use. Your ‘after all this’ is not a valid criterion as there has not been any ‘all this’, except whining from people who do not understand the issues and/or have an agenda to push.
Leif Svalgaard says:
October 6, 2011 at 4:22 am
You do not know what you are talking about. You assume that the k-factor for NOAA is 0.6, but it is not. It is 0.68.
The NOAA k-factor is not constant and has been closer to 0.6 since 2001. Pre 2001 it could be considered that the SIDC were counting higher. The last 6 months has seen the SIDC edge closer to the 0.68 average that I assume you have calculated from 1991.
http://tinyurl.com/2dg9u22/images/noaa_sidc_factor.png
Geoff Sharp says:
October 6, 2011 at 7:12 pm
The NOAA k-factor is not constant and has been closer to 0.6 since 2001.
As I said, you do not understand or know how this works. NOAA makes no attempt to provide a stable long-term calibration. The purpose of the NOAA number is to provide an approximate sunspot number in real time for operational purposes without having to wait for the official numbers published every month. The observers are airmen and rotate every two years, so never become really expert at their job [but don’t have to either]. So the k-factor for NOAA is arbitrary and sometimes show jumps and the like. No conclusions about SIDC can be drawn from the NOAA number.
As the sun grabbed a higher gear, has anyone noticed how the volcanoes have quietly subsided? There is still a little very low altitude volcanic action, but no high altitude honkers. Lacking those high fliers, the cold will capitulate to the warmth. I am still swimming in the cold arse creeks in Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois because they aren’t cold yet.
Leif,
The title of this WUWT post is “Big jumps in September solar activity metrics”‘
Question – Compared to the past 11 yr solar cycles going back to say ~1900, is this recent fluctuating behavior of SC24 cycle buildup to solar maximum considered ‘Big jumps’ or rather a commonly observed kind of fluctuation?
Other thought question – Do you have an idea where I can get good references to the recent atomic/molecular makeup of the solar wind at 1 au (earth orbit)? I am curious about the sun as a source of carbon/carbon dioxide and H2O among other things.
Thanks.
John
John Whitman says:
October 7, 2011 at 7:35 am
Question – Compared to the past 11 yr solar cycles going back to say ~1900, is this recent fluctuating behavior of SC24 cycle buildup to solar maximum considered ‘Big jumps’ or rather a commonly observed kind of fluctuation?
Weak cycles often display such swings. The classical example is cycle 14: http://www.leif.org/research/SC14-and-24.png
Other thought question – Do you have an idea where I can get good references to the recent atomic/molecular makeup of the solar wind at 1 au (earth orbit)? I am curious about the sun as a source of carbon/carbon dioxide and H2O among other things.
The solar wind starts at temperatures around a million degrees and is still 10,000-100,000 K at the Earth. No molecules survive such temperatures, so no CO2 or H2O. The oxygen content of the solar wind is very low [much less than 1%] of the 5 particles per cc impinging on us, so the solar wind is not a source of oxygen or oxygen compounds.
@Ed Mertin says:
October 6, 2011 at 10:56 pm
El Hierro volcano earthquakes: http://www.ign.es/ign/layoutIn/volcaListadoTerremotos.do?zona=2&cantidad_dias=10
Enneagram says:
October 7, 2011 at 10:48 am
still pretty deep… movement in the lower magmatic system of this hot spot. But this particular one hasn’t erupted in over 2500 years. If the quakes get shallower and stronger, look out!