UPDATE from NASA 11:PM Fri:
NASA says it continues to wait for final confirmation of re-entry. “If debris fell on land (and that’s still a BIG if), Canada is most likely area,” the space agency just said.
-
Update #12
Fri, 23 Sep 2011 07:50:07 PM PDT
As of 10:30 p.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 85 miles by 90 miles (135 km by 140 km). Re-entry is expected between 11:45 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 12:45 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3:45 a.m. to 4:45 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada and Africa, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans. The risk to public safety is very remote.
===================================
Lots of newsbuzz today on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Not since Skylab came down in 1979 has there been this much buzz over space junk burnup. I wonder if somebody will name their kid after it.
Just hours before re-entry, a baby boy was born in Patiala, India. He was named Skylab Singh. Source: “Baby Named Skylab.” Vancouver Sun 12 Jul. 1979: A7.
============================================================
NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, or UARS, is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere late Sept. 23 or early Sept. 24 Eastern Daylight Time, almost six years after the end of a productive scientific life. Although the spacecraft will break into pieces during re-entry, not all of it will burn up in the atmosphere.
The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA’s top priority. Since the beginning of the Space Age in the late-1950s, there have been no confirmed reports of an injury resulting from re-entering space objects. Nor is there a record of significant property damage resulting from a satellite re-entry.
It is still too early to say exactly when UARS will re-enter and what geographic area may be affected, but NASA is watching the satellite closely and will keep you informed. Visit this page for updates on the satellite’s orbital track and predicted re-entry date.
› Re-Entry and Risk Assessment (498 KB PDF)
› Frequently Asked Questions: Orbital Debris
The updates posted here come from the Joint Space Operations Center of U.S. Strategic Command at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif., which works around the clock detecting, identifying and tracking all man-made objects in Earth orbit, including space junk.
The actual time of re-entry is difficult to predict because it depends on solar flux and the spacecraft’s orientation as its orbit decays. As re-entry draws closer, predictions on the date will become more reliable.
Because the satellite’s orbit is inclined 57 degrees to the equator, any surviving components of UARS will land within a zone between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees south latitude. It is impossible to pinpoint just where in that zone the debris will land, but NASA estimates the debris footprint will be about 500 miles long.
If you find something you think may be a piece of UARS, do not touch it. Contact a local law enforcement official for assistance.
UARS Science Accomplishments

An artist’s concept shows UARS in Earth orbit. Credit: NASA NASA’s UARS satellite, launched in 1991 from the Space Shuttle, was the first multi-instrumented satellite to observe numerous chemical constituents of the atmosphere with a goal of better understanding atmospheric photochemistry and transport.
Many of these studies centered on the early understanding of ozone photochemistry. The timing of the UARS launch could not have been better. At that time, there were many open questions as to the details surrounding stratospheric ozone loss, especially with the processes related to the Antarctic ozone hole. UARS data were uniquely designed to address those questions.
Also, just before the launch of UARS, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo occurred in the Philippines, pumping significant amount of sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere. Atmospheric transport spread these aerosols around the global stratosphere over the next year, affecting both the chemistry and the temperature and radiative balance of the atmosphere.
UARS data also marked the beginning of numerous long-term data records for many key chemical species in the atmosphere. These data are now being combined with more recent data sets (especially from NASA’s Aura satellite) to better understand how the atmosphere reacts to the policies set down by the Montreal Protocol as well as changes in climate drivers.
UARS also provided key data on the amount of light that comes from the sun at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths. Those data were key for better understanding the radiative balance of the stratosphere and mesosphere and for the photochemistry in those parts of the atmosphere.
UARS ceased its productive scientific life in 2005.
› More Detailed Information on UARS’ Science Accomplishments
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/uars/index.html
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Is it ok to yell “Look up U ARS”?
Why can’t we touch it? Has it got space cooties or something? 😉
So what you are saying is that, as far as re-entry time goes, they don’t know their UARS from their elbow.
If we still had running Shuttles, could we have gone up and recovered it?
Although it clearly has solar cells for power, was there a plutonium-powered RTG tucked in there somewhere, for backup/emergency power?
Hey! I think I helped to launch that puppy from KSC in 1991!
Go to this msnbc report:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44632366/ns/technology_and_science-space/?GT1=43001
for this statement regarding the effects of solar activity on atmospheric temperature:
“The sun has had an extremely active week, one that has included several solar flares. High solar activity can cause the Earth’s atmosphere to heat and expand, which can increase drag on a low-flying satellite like UARS, making it fall faster.”
“The risk to public safety or property is extremely small, and safety is NASA’s top priority. ”
You’ll recall this post. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/24/something-more-worrisome-than-global-warming/ which had this sentence in it: “NASA analysts say there is no chance the space rock will strike Earth.”
I grant you, Mr. Watts, that you weren’t the author of that post.
Please, do make up your mind whether scientists at NASA are trustworthy and whether alarm is appropriate for threats which are considered vanishingly small by experts.
According to this:
http://reentrynews.aero.org/1991063b.html
we have two chances tonight in California to see it, one about 7:45 pm PDT and the other about 9:15 pm (if I converted from Zulu correctly). SoCal is first. If you see anything down there, Nevadan’s better duck. Are they betting on anyone getting hit in Las Vegas?
“if you see a piece of satellite coming directly towards you, don’t forget to kiss UARS goodbye.”
I understand the chance of a human casualty is 1 in about 3200, but the likelihood of a particular person being hit is more like 1 in 21 trillion.
That’s actually pretty reassuring, aefq]yT9PE]GFV F
[connection dropped]
Some European says: September 23, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Why so snarky? What is the connection between that asteroid and UARS? Aside from that, where in either posting did Anthony raise any alarm that could possibly offend even you?
William Briggs looks at the odds: “What Are The Chances NASA’s Rogue Satellite Kills You?”
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=4377
“Watch the skies! Identified flying objects released into space by NASA might fall on somebody’s head, or at least land nearby a noggin, on Friday, 23 September 2011, at 12:43 pm. Plus or minus a day. Or maybe a day-and-a-half.
Yes, NASA, the agency which claims it can predict global temperature two decades hence to a precision of a tenth of a degree, cannot do better than derive a forty-eight-hour window to predict the dropping to the Earth of a mass of metal and cable, even though they can track that object in space down to the meter. “
Some European says: September 23, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Please, do make up your mind whether scientists at NASA are trustworthy and whether alarm is appropriate for threats which are considered vanishingly small by experts.
NASA has it’s good points and research, but when you add in an environmental activist to oversee MMGW ‘research’, you have to ask yourself if the results of this research have a bias. It has been pointed out many times and it sure appears to be the case. Then there is all the funding…
According to a Face Book friend, and completely unverified by me:
To non-US readers – “All My Children” was a long-running “Soap Opera”, live (usually) daily drama targeted at housewives back when you could live on a single income. The advertisers often sold soap, laundry detergents, and the other tools needed by a successful housewife.
I never understood why people watched them, apologies to readers who grew up with them.
I recall MIR coming down as a big deal
Some European says:
September 23, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Of course NASA is trustworthy.
They can tell us the sun will rise each day
I don’t get the “safety is NASA top priority” bit. I mean, they have no idea where it will land, so what exactly can they do to keep people safe?
Hmmm, I thought Muslim outreach was NASA’s top priority? Whoops what!?! INCOMING!!!
So, the models can’t resolve the ambiguities, we are reduced to observations ?
There are some real questions to be answered, which no-one (except Curious George) seems to be asking.
First, we are assured that all of the toxic substances (fuel) are all gone. So why not touch the pieces?
Secondly, I thought it was always policy, as well as good manners, to use the last vestiges of fuel for a controlled re-entry, to ensure that burned out satellites land in uninhabited regions. Why was this monstrosity which is pretty much guaranteed to have pieces survive re-entry, completely emptied of fuel. Seems like a lawsuit (or two) waiting to happen.
It’s good that NASA is doing so much to promote Renewable Energy.
Stand outdoors in the right place at the right time, and NASA will send you a free solar panel.
Free shipping too. Just go outside tonight and wait for it to drop on by…
Going to be out at oh 7:45 PDT on with camera in hand…
Looking for old hard hat as we speak…
As of 10:30 a.m. EDT on Sept. 23, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 100 miles by 105 miles …..
It is still too early to predict the time and location of re-entry with any certainty, but predictions will become more refined in the next 12 to 18 hours.
So are they saying, “Our prediction will be more refined when it finally hits the ground” ????
Seems like something from UARS has fallen onto ground in northern Italy. Here is a video of security personnel recovering /something/:
http://www.youreporter.it/video_RECUPERO_DI_UN_PEZZO_DEL_SATELLITE_UARS_2
Two twitter users reported a fireball in the sky about three hours ago (and one is a well-known climate skeptic blogger here in .it, BTW). Locations (Mantova and Biella respectively) are near where video was taken and highly compatible with UARS time/orbit prediction you can see here: http://twitpic.com/6pgf54
(hmmm readers and moderators: forget the video. seems like a fake, time does not match: fireball reports are confirmed, though)