A new post containing a cartoon from Josh will appear every hour. At the end of the 24 hours, everything will be collated on a single page. Readers are encouraged to post skeptical arguments below, as well as offer comments on what has been seen from the Climate Reality Project so far.
Where’s the warming?
Here’s why the graph is relevant:
Stunning Revelation From Santer et al. Study: Confirms Insignificant & Immaterial Warming By Year 2100
Read here. Santer et al. 2011 research supposedly determines that at least 17 years of data is required to “measure” humans’ impact on the climate. Not 15 years, not 16, not 18, not 19, not 20, but most assuredly, their cherry-picked 17-year span is the new gold-standard.
“Our results show that temperature records of at least 17 years in length are required for identifying human effects on global-mean tropospheric temperature.”
Soooo, what does 17 years of HadCRUT global temperatures and CO2 levels look like? Good question!
Using 17 years (204 months) worth of data through the end of July 2011, the plot on the left reveals that global warming since August 1994 is rather modest and non-existent since 1998.
The linear trend from this 17-year span indicates that global temperatures will be only 0.85°C higher by January 1, 2100. The light blue fitted curve suggests that global temperatures are actually moving towards a cooling period, not a warming. The grey fitted curve for CO2 keeps to a linear path (“business as usual”) it has long had.
Let’s identify what human CO2 impacts (past, present and future) have had on the climate per this 17-year period:
- This 17-year gold-standard, blessed by the holier than thou team of Santer et cohorts, basically confirms that human CO2 emissions have had little, if any, impact on global temperatures.
- This 17-year span confirms that climate models based on the myopic CO2-“science” are spectacularly wrong.
- This 17-year span confirms that future global warming will at most be modest.
- This 17-year data confirms what skeptics have been saying for the last 17 years: runaway positive feedback is a fantasy and future global warming is unlikely to be catastrophic.
Since this outcome is probably not what Santer et al. expected from looking at the most recent 17-year span, maybe they ought to retract their study for a major revision. It would seem the 17-year span might need to be changed – damn that pesky empirical evidence!
Josh put a lot of work into these, so if you like the work, drop by the tip jar. Unlike Gore’s CRP, he won’t spam you asking for more. Buy him a beer, he’s worked a long time bringing us enjoyment with only some “attaboys” sent his way.