From Vanderbilt University , damn the torpedoes uncertainty and full speed ahead, there’s a trillion dollars at stake:
Time to begin anticipating and adapting to climate change
Despite the uncertainties surrounding climate change, it is time to start developing effective strategies that will keep the nation’s transportation systems and other critical infrastructure running in the face of the adverse impacts that seem increasingly likely to occur.
This consensus emerged from a two-day leadership summit that brought together major stakeholders from the $1 trillion-plus freight transportation sector with climate change researchers to discuss the issue for the first time. The meeting was held in June at Vanderbilt University and was sponsored by the Vanderbilt Center for Transportation Research (VECTOR), Vanderbilt Institute for Energy and Environment (VIEE) and the University of Memphis’ Intermodal Freight Transportation Institute.
“It is increasingly clear that climate change will have potentially large impacts on the nation’s highways, railroads, waterways, airports and pipelines. In all likelihood, these impacts will increase in the future, so we have to learn how to plan ahead,” said George Hornberger, director of VIEE and distinguished professor of civil and environmental engineering.
Weather-related damage to nation’s infrastructure on the rise
According to the University Center for Atmospheric Research, more than 75 percent of natural disasters are triggered directly or indirectly by weather and climate. In the U.S., more than a quarter of our gross national product (+$2 trillion) is sensitive to weather and climate events, which affect our health, safety, economy, environment, transportation systems and national security. Each year, the U.S. sustains billions of dollars in weather-related damages caused by hurricanes, tornadoes, forest fires, flooding, heavy snows and drought. The threats associated with extreme weather and climate change are substantial and adapting to climate change will be crucial to economic and social stability, for example by making future water, food and energy supplies reliable and sustainable. Contributing to these costs is the problem of the nation’s aging infrastructure, which needs $2.2 trillion in improvements to meet today’s demands, according to the 2009 National Infrastructure Report Card by the American Society of Civil Engineers.
Unless the nation begins taking appropriate measures, these costs are likely to increase: “It appears to us that more extreme weather events – like floods and hurricanes – are becoming more frequent and pronounced and we need to be prepared to adapt to the prospect that what have been episodic events in the past become chronic features of our operational landscape in the future,” observed Craig Philip, Chief Executive Officer of the Ingram Barge Company and a member of the conference steering committee.
The Mississippi River floods in April and May, which were among the largest and most damaging recorded along the waterway in the past century, the flooding on the Missouri that began in June and the above-average wildfire season that burned 1.3 million acres in the month of June in the Southern Plains and Southwest, are dramatic examples of the kinds of natural disasters that experts predict will become increasingly severe and frequent.
“Right now people are waking up to the fact that they will have to adapt, but very few are walking the walk,” commented Mark Abkowitz, co-organizer of the meeting and professor of engineering management at Vanderbilt. “If we’re not careful and begin taking actions soon, we will fall so far behind that playing catch-up will be difficult.”
Reasons for current lack of action
The summit discussions identified several reasons for the current lack of action: 1) uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of climate change; 2) insufficient knowledge of how these changes will impact the performance of critical infrastructure systems; 3) the succession of short-term crises that deflect attention and resources; and, 4) lack of political leadership.
So far, the federal government has focused almost exclusively on mitigation: developing methods that reduce the amount of carbon dioxide released in various industrial processes or sequestering carbon deep underground.
“Regardless of the success of mitigation efforts, we will need to adapt. Even if we could completely stop injecting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the concentration of carbon dioxide is already significantly higher than historic levels so we would still have to handle the consequences,” said Hornberger. Key initiatives for next five years Summit delegates identified several key initiatives that should be undertaken in the next five years:
- Identify the critical infrastructure that is most vulnerable to damage and disruption. Of particular importance are bridges, highways, rail lines, airports and other key transportation facilities for which there are no alternatives;
- Assess the cost of impacts to key infrastructure components. Putting a dollar sign on the potential damage for non-action helps determine the benefits of the proposed protective measures;
- Develop better tools and models for performing risk assessments. Right now the climate models are more accurate at the global and regional scale, but they are not capable of predicting the local effects that planners need;
- Define and communicate climate change problems in terms that decision makers can understand;
- Improve dialogue and collaboration among stakeholders.
“There is no reason why we should wait to get started down this path,” said Abkowitz. “As long as our approach remains flexible, we can adapt as better information becomes available.”
Videos of the plenary sessions of the meeting can be viewed on the Vanderbilt School of Engineering’s website at http://engineering.vanderbilt.edu/CivilAndEnvironmentalEngineering/News/PodcastsVideos.aspx
“It appears to us that more extreme weather events – like floods and hurricanes – are becoming more frequent and pronounced “
Hurricanes are becoming more frequent and pronounced? It’s just the opposite.
Since the climate has really done nothing for about 15 years and is now actively cooling, where do the get the increasing evidence of the effects of climate change. Changes have been minimal or zero over the last 20+ years as the change has zero’d out a bit of the warming in the 90s.
These guys have overactive imaginations. How about they simply realize that all kinds of weather happens regardless of he warming of cooling phase we are in and plan for blizzards, ice storms, hail, tornadoes, hurricanes, violent crosswinds, heat waves, cold snaps, sunny days, etc.? This is a no-brainer.
So the ‘concensus’ was amongst those who want to build infrastructure and those who want even more grants to maintain their comfortable lifestyles. Who pays for this? Ultimately, it is the taxpayer, who does not work for government.
This used to be called “having a vested interest” in the outcome – these views would be noted (repeat: noted, not accepted) by those independents who do not have any such interests.
As an independent without any vested interests, I can clearly say the subject was clearly one of hype, scaremongering and unsubstantiated conclusions. But what do I know, I’m just a chartered scientist operating in the private sector
These guys obviously have drunk the Kool Aid. Hurricanes, floods and forest fires, all getting worse.
Hurricane Irene is the first that might hit the US in almost 3 years. Atmospheric energy remains historically low.
The bad forest fires were due to forest mismanagement and the suppression of natural burns for 40 years—a big mistake. Smoky Bear aside, the forest rangers were too thorough and now represent a largely misguided program.
The Mississippi River area floods were due to dam mismanagement and the interference of the Greenies in the normal activities of the Army Corp of Engineers. The Greenies wanted to reintroduce Spring flooding to the rivers by letting a bolus out in one short period. Dam management complied, ignoring the obviously huge melt that was going to occur after the heavy snows of last winter. So, the dams were not appropriately low when the melt waters hit and widespread flooding was the result.
Then, the idiots flooded huge regions of valuable croplands to protect New Orleans residents who live below sea level. That’s just wrong—if you live in New Orleans, you deserve to take the real risk of being flooded and not be protected by the destruction of other people’s property and livelihood. New Orleans should have to pay compensation to the farmers who were flooded for such an extended time.
The US infrastructure is much more threatened by neglect and a lack of investments than by any form of climate change. However good on them for throwing their hat in the ring, money spent on “climate proofing” the infrastructure is much better spent than on any other rent-seeking project that is already holding its hand’s out.
“’It appears to us that more extreme weather events – like floods and hurricanes – are becoming more frequent and pronounced and we need to be prepared to adapt to the prospect that what have been episodic events in the past become chronic features of our operational landscape in the future,’ observed Craig Philip, Chief Executive Officer of the Ingram Barge Company and a member of the conference steering committee.”
So in other words, Mr. Philip has no hard information, only the idea that ‘it appears to us that more extreme weather events… are becoming more frequent’, and wants to use this as the basis for getting money from the Federal government to make infrastructure improvements within his company. You’ve got to hand it to the man – he’d never get a bank loan with that kind of story, so he found an even better way to get money.
These people are delusional: in the middle of an oil crisis with oil over $100 a barrel, they have the audacity to sit down and discuss the problems resulting from burning too much oil.
It would be like having a conference discussing obesity in the middle of the African famine?
I guess more “shovel-ready jobs” would be in order if we listened to these folks-and more windmills and high speed trains and more taxes to pay for them. The same type people have spent our money foolishly for years and now we are broke but the same types are still in control so things will get worse before some big change will happen. I am surprised that this came from Vanderbilt.
Notice there is not one bit of original research regarding climate change here. It’s just one of thousands of studies which repeat the climate change mantra without adding anything new to it. Yet it will likely be hailed as another study supporting the “consensus.”
The only people I don’t see holding there hand out for Climate cash is the other religions around such as Christians or Muslims. Although when one religion demands something from another religion it usually ends up in arguments.
I also like the bollox they have asking for Trillions even Gore ain’t got them balls.
Perhaps precautionary principled persons’ preparatory periphery precludes procrastination.
…I’m having a hard time adapting to no temperature change, no sea level change, etc
When you adapt you survive. If the dinosaurs had adapted, they would still be here.
There is always a sensible & logical reason for ensuring infrastructure is in a good state of affairs, e.g the levies of New Orleans that failed when hight flood water during Hurricance Katrina caused havoc. I seem to recall local engineers made that point clearly at the time. These things make sense. Upgrading highways so that they are free draining where possible, are not prone to wind-drift snows unless extreme, the water, power, & other utilites etc are also practical sensible things that should & would be done in any case. I suspect that this is just an attempt to green everything up. I wouldn’t be surprised if the ACE has been high-jacked by the green lobbyists & knowing how naive we lot (I’m IStructE, always better than those Civils chaps & chapesses) can be are too scared to tell them where to shove it! The motto of the Institution of Civil Engineers (ICE), based in Great George Street, London, used to be “Harnessing the forces of nature for the benefit of mankind”! God alone knows what it probably is now! Probably something along the line of “Extending the hand & arm of peace & love around Gaia for a better understanding of our natural home”! Excuse me I think I’ve made myself sick……………………
Reading the comments above, it seems many people are of a similar opinion to me – adaptation is the best strategy to address climate change (whatever form climate change may take). But let’s be clear about this, since we don’t know what climate change means in terms of local effects (since we don’t even know global effects beyond “change”), we should not be building things in anticipation of any particular type of change.
Investing in infrastructure is something that should be done regardless and using climate change as as scare tactic is playing into the same WTWT scare stories we are most concerned about from the CAGW’ers. Don’t forget, climate change is simply the current tool for the anti-growth, de-development misanthropists to push their “humans are bad’ agenda.
It might be ‘smart’ tactics to try and get something useful out of whichever scare story is doing the rounds, but this whole concept ****** me off big time and I am not going to play that game. I work in agricultural biotechnology and I am just as annoyed at people who are using climate change as the ‘hook’ to get increased adoption of GM crops. This is wrong and until we stop scaring people into doing something ‘for their own good’ we are going to be lurching from one end of the world scenario to the next with an increasingly scared population ready for the next demagogue to take over and really cause some damage (read Stalin, Hitler, Mao or Pol Pot).
I applaud Anthony for keeping all extremist rhetoric out of WUWT and I am NOT, repeat NOT comparing anyone on either side to these demagogues. Thankfully, we seem as a society to be able to keep ourselves to little more than rhetoric (albeit sometimes rather extreme). I am just pointing out how it was that leaders such as this were able to gain power on the back of a scared population and we should be fighting against that fear, not taking advantage of it.
Anyone with any sense at all knows that the future of transportation is Rail. Look at a railroad bed, now look at the DC Beltway. We need to rip up the National Highway System and bury it in every vacant Saltmine we can find. Blame Eisenhower! Anyone who’s ever been on a trolley will tell you that rail always was and always will be the road to the future. (SarcHalfOff, I really do like trains and railroads, I always have.)
PS: Just imagine, Nuclear Powered-Electric Locomotives! That’s the way of the future! Get rid of all these cars and trucks! Bury all those Super Highways! The way of the future is old fashioned horse power and one lane, unpaved, country roads. It is! I been there. I done it! When I were a kid.
“Time to begin anticipating and adapting to climate change”
Where have they been since the late 60s. That is when I started working in a job that included anticipating and adapting to variable weather patterns A.K.A “Climate Change”. But then we just called it weather events!
John R. Walker says:
August 23, 2011 at 4:21 am
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Too true that the UK is unprepared.
That is one thing, but present energy policies appear aimed at exacerbating the problem with ever increasing and unaffordable energy costs coupled to unreliability with supply. If we have another couple of winters like the last two when we are say 25% dependent upon wind power, heaven help us since we shall need divine intervention if significant number of lives are not to be lost
Can we round up all the Moveon.org & the costly green tech? Place them all in Alaska and sell it to Russia and/or China for enough trillions to cover infrastructure needs & debt? Then don’t ever let those crazy people back in…
They are shamelessly seeking support from stakeholders in the freight transportation industry for climate change theory with the lure of money to repair the infrastructure. The consensus was probably not difficult with only climate change researchers to present their views on the damage caused by climate.
Funds have continually been allocated to maintain the infrastructure and the meeting, if they had to have one and if they were interested in the transportation system, should have been why has it not been maintained. if tax dollars have not been used as intended what makes them think more money will correct the problem. And shouldn’t they first prove their case before asking for more money.
So industry sat down with “climate change researchers” and came to the only conclusion possible with those who believe advocacy is more important, than the well being of the nation. The trucking industry should now have a sit down, with researchers with a proper skeptical approach. Otherwise we will all be caught off guard, by a climate that goes in the exact opposite direction from the one prepared for.
I find, in general, that the correct path, seems to always be the one, that is the exact opposite to what actions the government decides is the best. I don’t know how they are able to achieve such uncanny “accuracy”. Go figure! GK
If you google Mark Abkowitz, you’ll see that he’s a very politically active guy. He was appointed to a nuclear waste board by Bush Jr, and he has a book on Amazon. He’s a professional appointee, who appears to have made quite a good living out of talking about this kind of BS. Operational risk management is his speciality, which makes him kinda like an insurance salesman. His whole career is based on fearmongering to corporate leaders and government. I would be very surprised if the attendees were in broad agreement with the above summary statements. I would bet a big stack of money that the majority of attendees sat there smirking when they said this stuff. People who run big business hear this kind of stuff daily.
Forget about infrastructure, I demand that the Central Government make my damn House impervious to all insults! And I want the treatment of my disease to be “free”, too.
Washington: “Wrong on both points, fool, you aren’t getting your fair share of Dr. Feelgood’s Victory Gin until you return all of ‘Washington’s’ present and future wealth!”
It seems almost certain that climate change will have a severe impact on transporation in Canada at some point, like with the onset of the next iceage. If it’s like the last one the country will be split in two by glacier at Manitoba. There are all sorts of questions for Canada about such a climate change. Will the land gained from the continental shelf be enough to sustain the country by compensating for land lost to ice? How will we connect the country with it divided? These idiots are completely incapable of addressing climate change issues. I’m shocked that a great school like Vanderbilt could sponsor something so incredibly stupid.
At least this conference was focused on adaption rather than the (negative rate-of-return) mitigation approach.
Many of the studies and discussions on the impact of climate, climate change, global warming, etc. ignore the natural cycle of upgrading and replacement of the infrastructure.
Building codes and design standards have changed. Recent buildings are more hurricane resistant and earthquake resistant
I realize of course that earthquakes are not related to climate change, but we face the same sort of decisions on whether to 1) live with the risk of infrastructure failure; 2) do seismic upgrades of existing structures; or 3) replace the infrastructure with new construction that is built to higher standards. Even just looking at bridges across the San Francisco Bay shows examples of all 3 responses. No one response is best for all situations.
Artificially setting up climate change as something separate and distinct that must be responded to is a path for the waste of a lot of money.,