Open Thread #10

Open thread? Yippeee! Our Finest Minds on CNBC Department:
Heard a talking head from some Green org claim that “Ethanol takes CO2 out of the air.”
He was correct — until it’s used for fuel and goes right back in to the atmosphere.
Neither the host nor the talking head from American Enterprise Inst. caught this.

Will we be able to see video of your talk? Other talks?
Good luck Mr. Watts.

Anthony,
In my opinion, there are no better records than those of Bob Carter, as regards temperature trends.
Good luck on your 15 minutes worth. May they also be wirthless?
Best of British,
Chris

And this is in 4 parts

When I think of Washington, the “All things considered I would rather be here than in …” comes to mind.

Presidential candidate Michele Bachmann, who has never believed in global warming disasters, asked if the perception of some in Washington that she is a “flake” is true:

‘splain this to me please…..
Is this really where they are getting the sea level trends from?
http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/fileadmin/images/news/indic/msl/MSL_Map_J1_Global_IB_RWT_NoGIA_Adjust.png

Anthony, have a safe and productive trip!
This might be worth mentioning, as another voyage related to climate change is underway. This voyage is by friends of mine, Jake and Jackie Adams of Redondo Beach, California and their friend Bill Babington. They are sailing around the world and documenting with video the changes on the islands and islanders from climate change. Jake and Bill sailed to the South Pacific 13 years ago. The travelers’ intent this time is to create a commercial video after their trip. Jake is a registered Civil Engineer in California, meaning he is a Professional Engineer.
They have a web site at http://www.island-earth.com/ , where Jake and Jackie are on the sailboat Hokule’a, and Bill is on Solstice. There is a tracking map, and a journal or log of their travels. Click on Hokule’a for a menu of options, or on Solstice for a similar menu of options.
They are currently in the French Polynesia islands. They report that the islands are still there, none are underwater.

Perhaps you can find some use in this
The Myths and Omissions of AGW
1. The Historical Global Temperature Myth
“It will without doubt have come to your Lordship’s knowledge that a considerable change of climate, inexplicable at present to us, must have taken place in the Circumpolar Regions, by which the severity of the cold that has for centuries past enclosed the seas in the high northern latitudes in an impenetrable barrier of ice has been during the last two years, greatly abated.
(This) affords ample proof that new sources of warmth have been opened and give us leave to hope that the Arctic Seas may at this time be more accessible than they have been for centuries past, and that discoveries may now be made in them not only interesting to the advancement of science but also to the future intercourse of mankind and the commerce of distant nations.”
President of the Royal Society, London, to the Admiralty, 20th November, 1817 ( Royal Society Archives)
The Arctic.
Up to1882-83; records of the Arctic weather/climate , except for a few places between 67.7 and 70N are non-existant.Between 1883 and the 1930s records are few and far between, in both time and position. In 1937 the USSR established the first semi permanent Observation Sites on polar ice. From 1947 the US and Canada established DEWline Observation Sites on their N.Arctic Coasts. From 1979, 30 Arctic AWS drifting “Buoys” were estabished. From 1990 on; increasing satellite, surface AWS and manned Station observations are relied upon.
The Antarctic.
Climate/Weather records of the Antarctic have a more recent history stretching back to 1950. Prior to that there are no records.Between 1950 and 1970 , the records are sparce. The number of weather stations and AWS slowly increased, but at present only 11 out of the present 21 sites are operative.This is to cover land area of 13M square Km.Since C1970 Satellite and aerial measurements are extensively relied upon.
Ice core techniques to determine historical climate conditions are unreliable because of contamination and other causes; both time and climate conditions are vague and the margin of error too great to be included in computations.
Temperate, Tropical and Doldrum Latitudes- Land.
From C 1700 the Royal Navy established a weather reporting system at Royal and other National Naval Stations throughout the World. Tables of extremes and average/mean weather conditions were published in the Encyclopeadic Admiralty Pilots and Ocean Passages for the World.
From C1810 Admiral Beaufort standardised methods of weather measurements in the Royal and Merchant Navies of the UK.
Reporting Weather Stations were established by President U.S. Grant, and this system spread over Europe etc.. over the next two decades
Prior to 1882-3and the introduction of the Stevenson Screen, Land Weather and Climate Observations were unregulated and measurements unreliable. The International Polar Year Conference establish standards of observations . Wind speed was measured by the Beaufort Scale. Observations of pressure by accurate Mecury and Aeneroid barometers and Barographs was very limited. Relative Humidity and SALR and DALR were established.
Electronic weather measuring developed and was installed in satellites, but it was not until about 1975 that regular satellite measurements were accepted as reliable.Even today, Satellite Measurements are sometimes shown to be unreliabe when compared to surface and aerial( Sondes and Aircraft ) measurements.
Temperate, Tropical and Doldrum Latitudes-Sea.
From around 1880 and the introduction of the Stevensen Screen, a standardised method of maritime weather observations evolved and there are extensive records , covering the Worlds major sea lanes since then. However, these changed with e openings of the Suez and Panama Canals, so that voyages around Cape Horn and Cape Aghuilas became less frequent.
However, vast areas of the Southern Oceans remained empty and void of any weather observations . An approx indication of these areas is
South Atlantic 00Lat 22W long -40 S lat 5W long-50S lat. 42Wlong
S. Pacific 55S lat 105W Long -10S lat 125W Long-50S lat 180 Long
S Indian Ocean40 s Lat 40 E long- 76 E Long – 40 S. Lat 110E long.- 10S Lat 75E long.
The absence of records from virtually half the Worlds Surface, for most of the historical period in question means that to attempt to calculate a ” Global Historical Mean ” or graph a ” Global Historical Mean ” is a Global Historical ( or Hysterical) Myth.
over a year ago · Report
Laurie Ridyard 2. Recording Weather on a Merchant Ship at sea.
The ability to safely navigate a vessel of any nature across the World’s Oceans is an extremely difficult task.The fundamental task is to ensure the ship is stable at all times, which requires a mass of calculations involving shifting centre of gravity and centre of buoyancy.Navigation has progressed from the 3 Ls ; log ,lead, and latitude, and now involves the use of 6 instruments: Radar, sounding machine,log,sextant, chronometer and magnectic/gyro compass. Position fixing in the middle of the ocean requires pages of calculations involving Spherical Trigometry.Nowadays , it is all done by satellites and computers, but as we are so often reminded in Courts of Enquiry; these are only aids to navigation and to rely on just one often leads to disaster.Climatology and Meteorology are essential tools ; and the ability to predict weather to navigate in, away from and out of storms, ice fields, icebergs, fog etc., is essential. One has to be competent in Celestial Navigation to allow for breakdown of computers and/or satellites.
Measurements for weather are made every 6 hrs.starting 0000 GMT ( regardless of local time), and are/were:
Position Lat & Long; course, speed;Stevenson Screen Dry bulb and Depression of Wet bulb temp Sea Temp from a Sea Temp Bucket or ME intake; Pressure from a Marine Mercury Barometer, corrected for height above sea level and Latitude ( variations in G.). Aeneroid Barograph tendency. Wind direction and speed( estimated ) Cloud coverage (Clear-1/8th to 8/8ths }
Main Cloud Type and estimated height.Visibility Precipitation ( not measured ) type if any, fog, mist or any other restrictionof visibility. Past 6 hrs. weather summary.
In the Narrative section, we also had to report any rare or unlisted phenomenae , such as Solar/lunar and Complex Solar/lunar Halos , Green Flashes,unusual Radar Echoes ( In some conditions Radar Echoes can be picked up at multiples of the set Radar Range) meteorites, volcanic eruptions or evidence of same, dust storms water spouts, large numbers of whales, porpoise dolphins etc. with photos wherever possible .
The observations were encoded in numerical groups and sent via RadioTelegraph to the nearest Land Receiving Station.At the end of the Voyage , the Log Books were sent to the Met Office for use by the Climatologists.
All readings had to be taken according to the strict directions within the Log Book.
over a year ago · Report
Laurie Ridyard 3. Making Merchant Ship Records fit the AGW agenda.
The majority of land weather recording stations are sited in and close to urban areas, where local temperatures have increased with increased population and usage of of exothermal equipment, from cars to heating to refridgeration.I understand these are referred to as Urban Heat Islands . This has resulted in most such places having a temperature inversion (cold air above warm air) which can be clearly seen at a distance. Thus, the temp. of central London can now be as much as 4 or 5 degs.Centigrade higher than surrounding agricutural areas, and indeed than the air directly above it.To get an idea of the distribution of Historical and present day Land Weather Recording Sites see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GHCN_Temperature_Stations.png
It is also worth pointing out that a 2006 US Govt. survey found that only 16% of land based sites could be described as exellent and 25 %were described as fair or poor; in terms of positioning and quality of measuring/reporting..
It follows that making a simple straight line graph of that increase from 0 to 5 degrees over 150years shows AGW scientists have much to play around with, in getting a Global Warming Mean or average.
Temperatures at , above and below sea level are a different kettle of fish.
The first problem is , whatever the weather, air temperatures at at one or two feet above sea level and sea temperatures at one or two feet below sea level are affected by evaporation and Latent Heat Of Evaporation. The more violent the sea becomes,because of spray, the greater that height becomes.
The second problem is the sudden rises and falls of air temperature-( not just due to sun and clouds) which are felt and measured with passing squalls. These occur all over the oceans,but are most noticeably in the Tropics, where the temp can be 90degF, with two or three water spouts and towering cumulo nimbus in sight. Within a few hours the Temp has plunged to 60 degF in a torrential downpour, occasionally of hail. This turbulent weather decreases with nightfall, so that temperatures are more stable.
The third problem is the adiabatic lapse rate.
Sailing ships’ instruments were situated at a height of perhaps 20 ft above sea level This height increased with the advent of steam and motor vessels. Although coastal and short sea ships had their instruments perhaps around 20 ft. above sea level; the height of deep sea vessels varied between 40 & 70 ft. Typically the height of my veesels was about 45ft above sea level.Present day deep sea vessels can have their instruments up to 100+ ft. above sea level.
The fourth problem is with sea temperatures. You may think has nothing to do with air temperatures. However, see what evolves.
Slow moving sailing ships used a reinforced wooden bucket,to scoop a sample of water then a thermometer immersed therein for 3 minutes. For obvious reasons, this was changed to a canvas bucket; then around the 1950s, to an insulated and padded sea water temperature cylindrical bucket, with the thermometer inside on a slide, so that it could be pulled out and read. Where not possible , temp from the ME cooling intake was given.
So what does the CRU,UEA have to say about this?
“What are the basic raw data used?
Over land regions of the world over 3000 monthly station temperature time series are used. Coverage is denser over the more populated parts of the world, particularly, the United States, southern Canada, Europe and Japan. Coverage is sparsest over the interior of the South American and African continents and over the Antarctic. The number of available stations was small during the 1850s, but increases to over 3000 stations during the 1951-90 period. For marine regions sea surface temperature (SST) measurements taken on board merchant and some naval vessels are used. As the majority come from the voluntary observing fleet, coverage is reduced away from the main shipping lanes and is minimal over the Southern Oceans. Maps/tables giving the density of coverage through time are given for land regions by Jones and Moberg (2003) and for the oceans by Rayner et al. (2003). Both these sources also extensively discuss the issue of consistency and homogeneity of the measurements through time and the steps that have made to ensure all non-climatic inhomogeneities have been removed.
Why are sea surface temperatures rather than air temperatures used over the oceans?
Over the ocean areas the most plentiful and most consistent measurements of temperature have been taken of the sea surface. Marine air temperatures (MAT) are also taken and would, ideally, be preferable when combining with land temperatures, but they involve more complex problems with homogeneity than SSTs (Rayner et al., 2003). The problems are reduced using night only marine air temperature (NMAT) but at the expense of discarding approximately half the MAT data. Our use of SST anomalies implies that we are tacitly assuming that the anomalies of SST are in agreement with those of MAT. Many tests show that NMAT anomalies agree well with SST anomalies on seasonal and longer time scales in most open ocean areas. Globally the agreement is currently very good (Rayner et al, 2003), even better than in Folland et al. (2001b). However, some regional discrepancies in open ocean trends have recently been found in the tropics (Christy et al., 2001).”
In short , the Day MATs are unreliable, only Night MATs are reliable; so theCRU use ” reliable” Day and Night SSTs as a comparison.
Of course, they are the ones who determine which is reliable and which is unreliable.
I would find their science more reliable if they produced graphs of Day MATs, Night MATs and SSTs without any of their real or imagined homogeneities.
The difficulties of relying on any SST are found in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_surface_temperature
This also quite clearly shows the considerable variations in Diurnal SSTs, yet the steady heat sopurce below 2 m depths.
See also
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2009/08/spurious-warming-in-new-noaa-ocean-temperature-product-the-smoking-gun/
In conclusion, the reliance on on manipulated data derived from questionable sources to produce graphs of AGW is not science.

More Evidence that Global Warming is a False Alarm: A Model Simulation of the last 40 Years of Deep Ocean Warming
OHC, deceptive IPCC grafic , missing heat, Roy Spencer
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/06/more-evidence-that-global-warming-is-a-false-alarm-a-model-simulation-of-the-last-40-years-of-deep-ocean-warming/#comments