From Space.com
Astronomers will unveil a “major result” on Tuesday (June 14) regarding the sun’s 11-year sunspot cycle.
The announcement will be made at a solar physics conference in New Mexico, according to an alert released today (June 10) by the American Astronomical Society. The discussion will begin at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).
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I’m not sure what this is, but it may be related to the previous announcement about the collaboration with the Met Office on Space Weather Forecasting for protecting the electric grid.
It is also possible that it is related to Livingston and Penn’s findings or related to the sunspot forecasts that have been constantly changing.
However, given the state of science promotion these days, I’m going with sensationalism, maybe something to justify the new US-UK joint venture.
We’ll see.
h/t to reader Scarlet Pumpernickel
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Thank you Leif! I can’t get into the astronomical website so I’m following their chat to get info.
Well, here is a NASA release. Could it be the thing?
“http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.cfm?release=2011-181&cid=release_2011-181&msource=11181&tr=y&auid=8505861”
Or maybe something like this . . .
New paper explains how climate is ‘unusually sensitive’ to solar and lunar cycles
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2011/06/new-paper-explains-how-climate-is.html
Very interesting. This will actually be a very good test to see the effects (if any) of increased CO2 once and for all. If the next few decades do indeed turn out to be a Maunder Minimum type of event for Solar Activity and Europe and other places don’t get as cold as they did during that time period, it could show a real clear forcing from CO2. Said another way, if we have a flat-lining of global temps for a few decades, but no real long-term decline, even in Europe, despite a period of a blank sun, what might that say about the effects of the 40% more CO2 we have now than we had then? Suppose we even see a modest continued increase in temps (though perhaps not at the rate of IPCC projections) during a period of low sunspot activity?
What an exciting time to be alive!
According to Space.com, they’re saying that the sunspot cycle is slowing down and could even go dormant.
http://www.space.com/11960-fading-sunspots-slower-solar-activity-solar-cycle.html
“Some unusual solar readings, including fading sunspots and weakening magnetic activity near the poles, could be indications that our sun is preparing to be less active in the coming years.
The results of three separate studies seem to show that even as the current sunspot cycle swells toward the solar maximum, the sun could be heading into a more-dormant period, with activity during the next 11-year sunspot cycle greatly reduced or even eliminated.
The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.
The studies looked at a missing jet stream in the solar interior, fading sunspots on the sun’s visible surface, and changes in the corona and near the poles. [Photos: Sunspots on Earth’s Star]
“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” said Frank Hill, associate director of the National Solar Observatory’s Solar Synoptic Network. “But the fact that three completely different views of the sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.””
It goes on to say that some scientists are wondering whether we’re headed for another Maunder Minimum.
The announcement will be that CO2 carried high into the Earth’s atmosphere by convection is radiating additional Infrared into space and causing the sun to heat up.
The evidence being a lessening of cooler sunspots, consistent with the simple model.
Save the sun!
Looks like they might have gotten it right in predicting the future climate in Fallen Angels:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallen_Angels_(science_fiction_novel)
I, for one, and looking at property in Arizona.
Here are the abstracts of the three studies referred to in the announcement:
P16.10
Large-scale Zonal Flows During the Solar Minimum — Where Is Cycle 25?13
Frank Hill, R. Howe, R. Komm, J. Christensen-Dalsgaard, T. P. Larson, J. Schou, M. J. Thompson
The so-called torsional oscillation is a pattern of migrating zonal flow bands that move from midlatitudes towards the equator and poles as the magnetic cycle progresses. Helioseismology allows us to probe these flows below the solar surface. The prolonged solar minimum following Cycle 23 was accompanied by a delay of 1.5 to 2 years in the migration of bands of faster rotation towards the equator. During the rising phase of Cycle 24, while the lower-level bands match those seen in the rising phase of Cycle 23, the rotation rate at middle and higher latitudes remains slower than it was at the corresponding phase in earlier cycles, perhaps reflecting the weakness of the polar fields. In addition, there is no evidence of the poleward flow associated with Cycle 25. We will present the latest results based on nearly sixteen years of global helioseismic observations from GONG and MDI, with recent results from HMI, and discuss the implications for the development of Cycle 25.
P17.21
A Decade of Diminishing Sunspot Vigor
W. C. Livingston, M. Penn, L. Svalgaard
s Convention Center
Sunspots are small dark areas on the solar disk where internal magnetism, 1500 to 3500 Gauss, has been
buoyed to the surface. (Spot life times are the order of one day to a couple of weeks or more. They are thought to be dark because convection inhibits the outward transport of energy there). Their “vigor” can be described by spot area, spot brightness intensity, and magnetic field. From 2001 to 2011 we have measured field strength and brightness at the darkest position in umbrae of 1750 spots using the Zeeman splitting of the Fe 1564.8 nm line. Only one observation per spot per day is carried out during our monthly telescope time of 3-4 days average. Over this interval the temporal mean magnetic field has declined about 500 Gauss and mean spot intensity has risen about 20%. We do not understand the physical mechanism behind these changes or the effect, if any, it will have on the Earth environment.
P18.04
Whither goes Cycle 24? A View from the Fe XIV Corona
Richard C. Altrock
Solar Cycle 24 had a historically prolonged and weak start. Observations of the Fe XIV corona from the Sacramento Peak site of the National Solar Observatory showed an abnormal pattern of emission compared to observations of Cycles 21, 22, and 23 from the same instrument. The previous three cycles had a strong, rapid “Rush to the Poles” in Fe XIV. Cycle 24 displays a delayed, weak, intermittent, and slow “Rush” that is mainly apparent in the northern hemisphere. If this Rush persists at its current rate, evidence from previous cycles indicates that solar maximum will occur in approximately early 2013. At lower latitudes, solar maximum previously occurred when the greatest number of Fe XIV emission regions* first reached approximately 20° latitude. Currently, the value of this parameter at 20° is approximately 0.15. Previous behavior of this parameter indicates that solar maximum should occur in approximately two years, or 2013. Thus, both techniques yield an expected time of solar maximum in early 2013.
*annual average number of Fe XIV emission features per day greater than 0.19
Suranda says:
June 14, 2011 at 7:23 am
I’ve read the link and you may be right. I found the following interesting:
This monumental solar eruption may finally challenge the accepted theories about how the key driver of Earth’s climate actually works. Manuel sagely observes, “Although NASA seems to be catching up, after decades of ‘group-think’ it will be very difficult for NASA scientists to comprehend the Sun.”
Indeed, this latest evidence is unsettling not just for accepted ideas about how our Sun works but it also impacts assumptions of how the Sun effects Earth’s climate. Oliver insists “ Science is a continuous process of ‘truthing’ without ever claiming that you have the ‘whole truth.’”
http://www.suite101.com/content/vast-solar-eruption-shocks-nasa-and-raises-doubts-on-sun-theory-a327330
@R.Gates,
Good point. With a cooler climate we will also see a greater need for heating fuel especially for the undeveloped world. There will also be a shorter growing season.
Would we want to deprive them?
Jimbo says:
June 14, 2011 at 11:14 am
Indeed, this latest evidence is unsettling not just for accepted ideas about how our Sun works
You have been had. There is no such evidence. The iron-sun is pseudo-science.
Oh great. A possible new Maunder Minimum combined with volcanoes popping off with greater frequency.
What could go wrong.
Hey, where is that AGW now? We might need it soon.
Dr Svalgaard!!!! Are you softening to the Electric Universe Reality! Hollow Earth, it is!
I’m going out on a solar limb here, but I think the hollow Earth and hollow Sun are actually heating up. I don’t know about sunspots ~ the data presented may be just trying to confuse us. That’s what they do. Take real data and ascribe it to something fictitious, like emissions causing the Earth to heat up. I think the Earth is heating up, just like the Sun is ~ but that heating is electric in nature. I say this as I am freezing my butt off in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, but that is my theory. I think it is going to get very hot worldwide.
Sundiving Comet Storm
http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2011/12jan_cometstorm/
First time, I ever had confirmation of the phenomenon . . . just because this may have been the first time it was observed . . . doesn’t mean never happened before.
Suranda says:
June 14, 2011 at 12:04 pm
Dr Svalgaard!!!! Are you softening to the Electric Universe Reality! Hollow Earth, it is!
Another piece of pseudo-science. I don’t know why you tried to be funny, but you failed.
Laurie Bowen says:
June 14, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Sundiving Comet Storm
The sun-grazers form a family and it would not be strange that there some lumpiness in their distribution.
Suranda says:
June 14, 2011 at 10:08 am
Decision was made to cancel the press conference. A public summary release will follow.
Hmmm, perhaps some higher-ups were concerned that all this talk of vanishing sunspots would interfere with the attempts to get funding for warning about solar super storms 🙂
I swear the word “solar” was not in the title of this thread when I posted they might announce Pluto is a planet again. I know it wasn’t there…It wasn’t there!!!!! gulp…sob…sob… 🙁
Dave Worley says:
June 14, 2011 at 10:42 am
The announcement will be that CO2 carried high into the Earth’s atmosphere by convection is radiating additional Infrared into space and causing the sun to heat up.
It is worse than we thought. If it continues the sun will burn up and we will die.