Phil Jones does an about face on "statistically significant" warming

From the “make up your mind” department:

Professor Phil Jones gives evidence to the Commons science and technology committee. Photograph: parliamentlive.tv
Climate warming since 1995 is now statistically significant, according to Phil Jones, the UK scientist targeted in the “ClimateGate” affair.

Last year, he told BBC News that post-1995 warming was not significant – a statement still seen on blogs critical of the idea of man-made climate change.

But another year of data has pushed the trend past the threshold usually used to assess whether trends are “real”. Dr Jones says this shows the importance of using longer records for analysis. Short summary: Post 1995 warming now “significant” according to Jones Story title: Global warming since 1995 ‘now significant’

Full story here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13719510

Story submitted by WUWT reader Chris Phillips

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ferd berple
June 15, 2011 9:16 am

When we use a 60 year sample, we find the same general rate of increase from 1800-1860, from 1840-1900, from 1900-1960, from 1940-2000. Thus, there was nothing remarkable about the temperature increase in the 20th century, in-spite of the massive industrialization that followed the end of WWII. The current alarm fostered by the IPCC is due to a mistake in statistical sampling. They did not test their choice of end points to make sure they were not the underlying cause of the results they were seeing.
We would see the same thing if instead of using 1 year as a sample size to judge annual temperatures, we were use 1.5 years. In our first sample we would go from December to July, and the next from July to December. This would give us the misleading notion that our first sample was showing a big increase in temperature, while our second sample was showing a big decrease in temperature.
By using a 100 year sample instead of a 60 year sample, the IPCC finds the same thing. A big increase in temperature in one century and no increase in another. However, when you change the sample size to 60 years, both centuries show the same increase in temperature, independent of CO2 production.
I would encourage anyone that is convinced of their position to repeat this simple test. Check the temperature records since the LIA using a 60 year sample size instead of a 100 year sample. Is there anything remarkable about the 20th century if you do that? If not, then how can CO2 and industrialization explain when we are seeing?
3 years ago I was a climate believer. It was only after I read the climate gate papers that I began to question the results. It was this simple observation, that there is no difference between the 19th and 20th century when you use the correct statistical treatment of the endpoints that convinced me to look further.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 9:28 am

[snip no labeling of people here as “denier” per policy ]
But it is OK to have people saying “alarmist”?
What sort of screwed up logic is that?

ferd berple
June 15, 2011 9:35 am

“Modern climate science is not debating this topic, modern climate science is reporting back on changes resulting from the physics and chemistry of how we are changing the oceans and atmosphere.”
This is not correct. The oceans are currently caustic with a PH > 8. A neutral ocean has a PH of 7. An acidic ocean has a PH less than 7.
What is happening is not “acidification” of the oceans. The correct scientific term is “neutralization”. When you add an acid to a caustic solution (base), you are not acidifying the solution. You are neutralizing the solution. You are not acidifying the oceans until they read a PH < 7, which will never happen because the salt in the ocean is a buffer that will prevent this.
This is basic inorganic chemistry and the simple fact so called "scientists" continue to use an unscientific term for what is happening is clear evidence that they are not scientists trained in chemistry.
CO2 is not acidifying the oceans. It is neutralizing the oceans. You would need to add as much acid to the oceans as there is salt before you could start to turn them acidic. All the fossil fuels on earth are a drop in the bucket in comparison to the salt in the oceans. Even if you burned all known and projected future supplies of fossil fuels on earth in a single day you would not acidify the oceans. It is physically impossible due to the salt content.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 9:39 am

ferd berple says June 15, 2011 at 9:16 am “how can CO2 and industrialization explain when we are seeing?”
Simple – it is impossible to explain the changes we are seeing the composition of the earths atmosphere, changes in ocean level and ocean acidification absent these forcers.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 9:43 am

ferd berple says June 15, 2011 at 8:30 am
A straw man is a component of an argument and is an informal fallacy based on misrepresentation of an opponent’s position, and is inherently deceptive.
ferd said “This is totally ignored by most “climate scientists”. LIfe on earth is what has created the current climate. Life is what converted the CO2 to O2 that made animal life possible. ”
This is a strawman, since climate science is not ignoring the impact of the carbon cycle.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 9:45 am

Ferd – put aside the word games.
Is the chemistry of the ocean changing in a way that only can be caused by CO2? Yes or no

ferd berple
June 15, 2011 9:53 am

“Simple – it is impossible to explain the changes we are seeing the composition of the earths atmosphere, changes in ocean level and ocean acidification absent these forcers.”
In the contrary. Your position assumes that we know everything there is to know about the physical world. That is something happens, then the only explanation must be something that we know. We don’t stop to consider that maybe the reason we cannot explain what we are seeing is because there are things about the world that we have not yet discovered.
So, in the past when there was climate change, we sacrificed virgins and burned people at the stake, because we could think of no other explanation for what we were seeing. Now the IPCC is saying we should sacrifice industrialization to prevent climate change.
Everything in the real world has 3 truths. The things we think are true that are true, the things we think are true that are false, and the things we don’t know. Of these three truths, the smallest truth is the things we think are true that are true. Most of what we think is true in science will be shown by later generations to in fact be incorrect. Just look at what we believed to be true 100 years ago as compared to today. By far the largest truth is the things we don’t know.

DCA
June 15, 2011 9:54 am

Moderate Rep:
Argument from ignorance, also known as argumentum ad ignorantiam or “appeal to ignorance”, is a fallacy in informal logic

DCA
June 15, 2011 10:00 am

Moderate Republican:
It appears you’re suffering withdrawl from ClimateProgress now that they no longer allow comments. I suggest you try one of the other alarmist troll schools that still do.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 10:13 am

Ferd said “In the contrary. Your position assumes that we know everything there is to know about the physical world.”
So you are saying that the modern understanding of chemistry and physics is so broken as not to be usable?

ferd berple
June 15, 2011 10:17 am

Only a few million years ago the earth had higher temperatures, higher CO2 levels and more “acidic” oceans than a present. This represents the more “natural” state of the earth. We don’t “know” why current conditions are no longer like they were a few million years ago. As such, we have no way to know if what we are seeing now is part of a natural cycle, where the earth returns to its more natural state, or if something else is the cause.
What we do know is that when you look at the temperatures since the LIA, then once you correctly adjust for the end-point problem, there is nothing remarkable about this century as compared to the past. However, only this century has industrialization. As such, there is no evidence that industrialization is causing any significant temperature change, because there is no significant temperature difference between the rep and post industrial temperatures.
What we do see is a lag between temperature increase and industrialization, which suggests that if there is a cause and effect relationship, it must be temperature that is causing industrialization. Industrialization cannot be the cause as it occurred after the temperature increase started, and there has been no acceleration in temperature since the LIA, except for that created as a statistical artifact of the choice of endpoints.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 10:17 am

DCA says June 15, 2011 at 9:54 am
“Argument from ignorance, also known as argumentum ad ignorantiam or “appeal to ignorance”, is a fallacy in informal logic”
You mean like when someone says “So, how is it possible for significant warming to occur when global temperatures have cooled? “

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 10:19 am

DCA says June 15, 2011 at 10:00 am “I suggest you try one of the other alarmist troll schools that still do.”
Is that not pejorative statement Mr. Moderator?

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 10:24 am

ferd berple says at June 15, 2011 at 10:17 am
“Only a few million years ago the earth had higher temperatures, higher CO2 levels and more “acidic” oceans than a present. This represents the more “natural” state of the earth”
That is pseudoscience unless you can prove that there is a “natural” state of the earth. (hint – it cannot be done)
It also ignores the rate/pace/and source of the changes we are seeing now.

June 15, 2011 10:24 am

Moderate Republican says:
June 15, 2011 at 10:17 am
DCA says June 15, 2011 at 9:54 am
“Argument from ignorance, also known as argumentum ad ignorantiam or “appeal to ignorance”, is a fallacy in informal logic”
You mean like when someone says “So, how is it possible for significant warming to occur when global temperatures have cooled? “
=======================================================
lol, significant warming….hahahahahaha

DCA
June 15, 2011 10:29 am

Moderate Republican says:
June 15, 2011 at 10:17 am
DCA says June 15, 2011 at 9:54 am
“Argument from ignorance, also known as argumentum ad ignorantiam or “appeal to ignorance”, is a fallacy in informal logic”
You mean like when someone says “So, how is it possible for significant warming to occur when global temperatures have cooled? “
================
More like: “Simple – it is impossible to explain the changes we are seeing the composition of the earths atmosphere, changes in ocean level and ocean acidification absent these forcers.”

ferd berple
June 15, 2011 10:29 am

“So you are saying that the modern understanding of chemistry and physics is so broken as not to be usable?”
On the contrary, they are very usable when you apply the correct scientific methods with a good degree of skepticism. For example, we use the theory of gravity to predict the orbits of the planets, without the slightest idea of how gravity works. We don’t even know the speed of gravity, yet we use it to make very good predictions. The value of science is not in “truth” but in prediction. “Truth” belongs with politics and religion.
Where “science” goes wrong is when it start placing “truth” ahead of prediction. “We know the science is true, therefore the prediction must be true”. Rubbish. We know the prediction is true not because the science is true but because the prediction has proven itself reliable, time and time again. Most importantly, the prediction has never been in error. That is the true measure of science. Not the number of times a theory is correct – even a stopped clock is correct twice a day – but rather that the prediction has never failed to be correct, time and time again.

June 15, 2011 10:40 am

Thanks Ferd.
Those were a couple of very interesting comments. As a chemist I indeed had figured out about the same rerasoning as you did on the “acidification” of the oceans by the CO2 .
I was at Sceptical Science today, (on same Phil Jones subject) trying to share some of my knowledge over there.
I cannot believe the ignorance. People showing off as ‘statistical” experts who don’t know or understand first year statistics.Then they ridiculed my scientific method and wiped my comments when I do the same.
What a disaster.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 10:43 am

DCA – said “lol, significant warming….hahahahahaha”
If a trend meets the 95% threshold, it basically means that the odds of it being down to chance are less than one in 20. Last year’s analysis, which went to 2009, did not reach this threshold; but adding data for 2010 takes it over the line.
Are you arguing against math as well as physics and chemistry now?

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 10:51 am

ferd berple says: June 15, 2011 at 10:29 am “but rather that the prediction has never failed to be correct, time and time again.’
You need to show that every climate model has been completely incorrect outside of the range of projection. Failure to do so makes you assertion an unsupported one. This sort of broad sweeping statement is rarely if ever correct and the burden of proof is on the one who makes such a broad sweeping statement.
Please also keep in mind that a single model forecast within the range it sets for as boundary conditions invalidates your complete assertion.

ferd berple
June 15, 2011 10:52 am

rather than climate change, lets talk about the a new theory. Lets call it Ferd’s Theory of Ocean Wave Change (FTOWC). My theory says that humans are causing a change in the ocean waves due to spitting in the ocean changing the surface tension. I predict that over time this will lead to more extremes of waves in the ocean.
Sure enough, if you go down to the ocean and measure the waves, you will find that the longer you measure them, the more extreme they will become. Some days they will be extremely small, others extremely large, and as time goes by the size and lengths of the extremes will increase. This then will prove FTOWC.
Using the same methods we can prove any theory, including AGW.

Moderate Republican
June 15, 2011 10:54 am

Anthony Watts said “Four times now you have labeled people here as “deniers” and have been snipped. Please read the site policy here…Fair warning – continued use of the word “denier” by you will earn banning.
From your policy “… personal attacks…name-calling…and other detritus that add nothing to further the discussion may get deleted”
Does not the use of “alarmist” violate that policy?

June 15, 2011 10:57 am

Henry@moderate pubic
so is the warming that has been observed natural or is it man-made?
Please provide proof?
Thanks!

June 15, 2011 11:00 am

HenryP says:
June 15, 2011 at 10:40 am
Thanks Ferd.
Those were a couple of very interesting comments. As a chemist I indeed had figured out about the same reasoning as you did on the “acidification” of the oceans by the CO2 .
I was at Sceptical Science today, (on same Phil Jones subject) trying to share some of my knowledge over there.
I cannot believe the ignorance. People showing off as ‘statistical” experts who don’t know or understand first year statistics.Then they ridiculed my scientific method and wiped my comments when I do the same.
===========================================================
Don’t feel alone Henry. I got half my post snipped and told to be civil when I responded to a person that thought they knew something and attempted to belittle me when I explained that having a decrease in temps means we’re not getting any warmer. Apparently, the concept is a bit too complicated for warmistas.
Quite frankly, this explains much to me. I didn’t realize the depths of the typical warmista’s ignorance until this P Jones statement. Now I realize they are so ignorant that they will willingly accept false statements because they lack the cognitive ability to verify for themselves.

DCA
June 15, 2011 11:00 am

Moderate Republican says:
June 15, 2011 at 10:43 am
DCA – said “lol, significant warming….hahahahahaha”
—————————-
I wasn’t the one who made that comment but I do laugh when someone thinks Jones has a good knowledge of statistics