Submitted by Mike Hebb
High speed particles in route- excuse the models.
An event on the Sun occurred on the 7th of June. Prompt arrival of high speed particles has already affected the atmosphere.
See video below:
Our model indicates that the shock wave will reach Earth on the 8th of June around 5pm GMT. This will be followed by a disturbance in the solar wind that should produce fairly extensive auroral displays within 24 hr after that time.
Don’t miss it.
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/AuroraForecast
1. The crustal ore bodies [never changes]
2.Secular trend is removed:
As a scientist you are well aware if dBz = Bn-Bn-1, where n is in 1 year steps, than all secular change is removed. Since NOAA interpolates magnetic values every 5 years a small remainder contained in 5 year is defined by two relevant trend lines, this is greatly exceeded by the annual changes.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SF.htm
Now lets take a look at (lower graph) Siberian pole (red line) compared to the sunspot number (blue line)
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SF.htm
not perfect (considering your points 3,4 & 5, all accepted) but indicative of a link.
Sunspot number and the geomagnetic storms are slightly out of phase, so knowing that you must have a link for a Dst data file, I would like to do a further comparison.
I do not question any of your explanations except the one that there is no possibility of a link.
SOLAR-EARTH magnetic link
For some time now I claimed that such link exists, but this is disputed by experts. Here I present, if not definitive then at least initial step towards the proof of existence of the imprint of the solar magnetic activity on the Earth’s magnetic field.
Of particular interest is geomagnetic minor ‘flip’ in 1970s.
Up to that time the Hudson bay magnetic pole negative gradient was faithfully following, with minor exceptions, the solar activity with a (for the moment not explicable) 30 year delay. In 1970 this correlation changes sign.
In addition as shown before the Siberian magnetic pole responds, with no delay, to the changes in the solar activity.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-dBz.htm
This is not something which should be dismissed without serious consideration!
Is there a plausible link to the climate change?
For time being difficult to say.
vukcevic says:
June 11, 2011 at 12:33 am
2.Secular trend is removed:
As a scientist you are well aware if dBz = Bn-Bn-1, where n is in 1 year steps, than all secular change is removed.
On the contrary, dBz is the secular change per year. This is the definition of secular variation: ‘the difference between each year and the previous one’
you must have a link for a Dst data file, I would like to do a further comparison.
Here is Dst for every hour since 1905 http://www.leif.org/research/Dst-Love.txt but that is probably too overwhelming, so here is Dst for each year: http://www.leif.org/research/Dst-year.txt
The format of that file is: year, average Dst when positive, number of hours, most positive value, average Dst when negative, number of hours, most negative value, number of missing hours.
Now, the negative mean of Dst is essentially just the Sunspot number: http://www.leif.org/research/SSN-Dst.png so since -Dst adds to Z [my point 4], no wonder there is a correlation between changes in Z and SSN. This does not mean that the Sun influences the internal field, it is the external field that correlates. As I said, all this is well understood and there is no evidence for anything besides that understanding.
I do not question any of your explanations except the one that there is no possibility of a link.
There is always a possibility, there is just no evidence for it, and the energetics is many orders of magnitude off.
vukcevic says:
June 11, 2011 at 5:02 am
This is not something which should be dismissed without serious consideration!
Serious consideration immediately makes this extremely unlikely.
Is there a plausible link to the climate change? For time being difficult to say.
No, very easy to tell. There is no plausible link. There could be an implausible link, but very unlikely. The various plots you show are not evidence for any links.
Leif Svalgaard says:
June 11, 2011 at 7:44 am
…..
Thank you for the Dst file.
phenomena associated with this secular variation include geomagnetic jerk, westward drift and geomagnetic reversals and these are excluded by 1 year delta-sampling.
Leif Svalgaard says:
June 11, 2011 at 7:44 am
“if dBz = Bn-Bn-1, where n is in 1 year steps, than all secular change is removed. ”
On the contrary, dBz is the secular change per year. This is the definition of secular variation: ‘the difference between each year and the previous one’
Perhaps you are just being sloppy in choice of words. Let us say that Z increases 25 nT [better use that unit rather than o/oo or uT] every year, so that after 100 years Z will have increased 2500 nT. Your dZ is then 25 nT or just the increase per year. Now, in a sunspot maximum year there is an additional increase of -Dst = 30 nT. In a sunspot minimum year the additional increase is -Dst = 10 nT [see http://www.leif.org/research/SSS-Dst.png ], so the observed dBz is the sum of 25 and 30 = 55 for solar max and 25+10 = 35 for solar minimum year. So there is a solar cycle variation of the external current that is comparable to the secular variation. To compare with observations you should use a station that reports yearly values and not the smoothed values from NGDC. suitable Siberian stations include Norilsk, Yakutsk, Dixon, Novosibirsk, and Irkutsk.
vukcevic says:
June 11, 2011 at 5:02 am
For some time now I claimed that such link exists, but this is disputed by experts. Here I present, if not definitive then at least initial step towards the proof of existence of the imprint of the solar magnetic activity on the Earth’s magnetic field.
Or perhaps you are just confused as what is what. From your various posts it seems that you think the internal field is affected. There is absolutely, definitely, and without any doubt a solar magnetic activity influence on the MEASURED geomagnetic field at [or near] the surface. That is what all the geomagnetic indices are all about. I use that influence myself in reconstructing the sun’s magnetic field from geomagnetic measurements. This is not disputed by experts. The various external electric currents induce similar currents within the Earth [which we can also determine precisely], but the magnetic effects of these internal currents are much smaller than those of the external currents. Finally both the external currents and the induced current are transient only.
vukcevic says:
June 11, 2011 at 10:10 am
phenomena associated with this secular variation include geomagnetic jerk, westward drift and geomagnetic reversals and these are excluded by 1 year delta-sampling.
There are NO geomagnetic reversals in the data anywhere, and the westward drift is not excluded. The 1-year differences just give you the drift each year. Same for the jerks.