Offline much of today and this week as I’m doing a special project that will have me offline a lot. Guest posters feel free to jump in. Details below.
Those that wish to write guest posts can compose them and submit via the newly created Submit Story submission form. For image insertion into posts, may I suggest the free www.tinypic.com which Bob Tisdale regularly uses?
Posts don’t have to be long. They can be short news blurb summaries of about 150-250 words, much like is done at slashdot.org or they can be full fledged posts with embedded data and images.
Those of you that have guest author privileges – you know what to do.
– Anthony
UPDATE: Apologies – the Submit Story feature got hidden yesterday by an errant goof by one of our moderators who marked the page as “private” – fixed now – Anthony
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Open thread? OK:
This is the anniversary month of the tragic death of the great Canadian folk singer Stan Rogers, who died at 34 in a plane crash. I first heard about Stan Rogers here at WUWT a couple of years ago, when someone posted this link:
Stan wrote Barret’s Privateers, the story of a 17-year old fisherman who was enticed with promises of fortune, but ended up a cripple trying to get home:
[performed by the Irish Descendants]
Lyrics:
Oh the year was 1778
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
A letter of marque came from the king
To the scummiest vessel I’ve ever seen
God damn them all!
I was told we’d cruise the seas for American gold
We’d fire no guns, shed no tears
Now I’m a broken man on a Halifax pier,
The last of Barrett’s Privateers
2. O Elcid Barrett cried the town
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
For twenty brave men all fishermen who
Would make for him the Antelope’s crew
God damn them all . . .
3. The Antelope sloop was a sickening site
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
She’d list to the port and her sails in rags
And the cook in the scuppers with the staggers and jags
God damn them all . . .
4. On the King’s birthday we put to sea
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
Ninety-one days to Montego Bay
Pumping like madmen all the way
God damn them all . . .
5. On the ninety-sixth day we sailed again
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
When a bloody great Yankee hove in sight
With our cracked four-pounders we made to fight
God damn them all . . .
6. The Yankee lay low down with gold
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
She was broad and fat and loose in stays
But to catch her took the Antelope two whole days
God damn them all . . .
7. Then at length we stood two cables away
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
Our cracked four-pounders made awful din
But with one fat ball the Yank stove us in
God damn them all . . .
8. The Antelope shook and pitched on her side
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
Barrett was smashed like a bowl of eggs
And the main truck carried off both me legs
God damn them all . . .
9. Now here I lay in my twenty-third year
(How I wish I was in Sherbrooke now)
It’s been six years since we sailed away
And I just made Halifax yesterday
God damn them all . . .
R.I.P. Stan Rogers
Surely E.M Smith would be a good guest poster!
RIP James Arness, Marshal Matt Dillon
Absence of evidence is evidence of absence.
This phrase has been quite controversial. Many believe it to be wrong,
and many think it is true, but may be uncertain about it.
So, to stop the doubt, I proved it mathematically to be true:
The reactions have been thanks from the intelligent people who suspected it to be true, and blind arrogant denial from the idiots who believe it is false. Quite similar to the climate quarrels in this respect.
And of course, absence of evidence of man made global warming, is of course evidence that global warming is not man made.
Absence of evidence is evidence of absence.
This phrase has been quite controversial. Many believe it to be wrong,
and many think it is true, but may be uncertain about it.
So, to stop the doubt, I proved it mathematically to be true:
http://kim.oyhus.no/AbsenceOfEvidence.html
The reactions have been thanks from the intelligent people who suspected it to be true, and blind arrogant denial from the idiots who believe it is false. Quite similar to the climate quarrels in this respect.
And of course, absence of evidence of man made global warming, is of course evidence that global warming is not man made.
Mother nature producing strange things.
Take a look at this from one of our local news stations. Some very strange clouds just north of us.
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/123000938.html
A blooper from Gunsmoke
;O)
This one is actually on topic… Its wondering about the cost of building a house under the carbon tax. It occured to me that nearly all the major structural components (except wood) are made by highly energy intensive processes. Brick, cement, tiles, steel, aluminium, glass, copper, etc etc .
So the carbon tax is likely to lead to a very large increase on the cost of building a house, not to mention adding large costs to ANY major construction project.
Good way to stimulate the economy….not !!
Children of One Earth, you MUST obey the most famous warmist of all, Dr. Charlie:
Richard Glover wrote in the Sydney Morning Herald:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-dangers-of-boneheaded-beliefs-20110602-1fijg.html
“Surely it’s time for climate-change deniers to have their opinions forcibly tattooed on their bodies.”
I find this offensive in the extreme. I have met and seen WWII concentration camp survivors. They had numbers forcibly tattooed on their arms. Even he thinks it is “… maybe the tattooing along the arm is a bit Nazi-creepy.” But he did not, obviously, have any second thoughts about getting it published.
[self snip]
Stratosphere eruption in Chile. Got a honker in Mexico.
Eruptions | Big Think
http://bigthink.com/blogs/eruptions
Don’t let me be a guest post ever! it would mean I’d actually have to study this crap and take it seriously.
by “crap” I mean science. I used to have an interest in science but I’ve become very disillusioned by what I’ve become aware of. it’s very depressing.
“Submit Story” brings up ‘page not found’. Please delete this if a double post.
@Kim Øyhus – I believe that your proof is flawed; or to be more precise, your proof is correct, but it does not prove what you think it does.
Your definition of “absence of evidence” is “that no evidence exists”. It is impossible to ever establish that no evidence exists, except possibly by proving the original premise false and thus proving that no evidence can exist.
Adopting your notation, that “B” is some premise and “A” is evidence that “B” is true:
You have proven:
But, without having proven ¬B, we cannot ever prove ¬A. i.e.
So effectively, you’ve only proven:
In real life, we may say that no evidence has been discovered, but we cannot generally say that none exists.
The difference between a science and a religion is that in science, we accept that we don’t know everything, and try to find the answers, while in most religions, they invent something to cover the gaps in their knowledge, (and then say that the science is settled.)
ps.. you know its a religion when you see ideas such as “its the only explanation”.
For the people who like the Chinese “technology” this is the last incredible machine, it’s a seismograph which “predict” earthquakes up to two hours in advance 🙂 :
http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/zlPwyrKlZFM/
It was on sale on Ebay at this link:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&_trksid=p4340.l2557&hash=item4cf703e6a8&item=330561742504&nma=true&pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&rt=nc&si=uZCcIlzxOkq3HgB5L9gCj4jmzDY%253D#ht_13478wt_903
He got more and he sold just three so maybe he will relist it again next.
There has been a call for “guest posts”. I would like to ask for a particular “guest post”.
The post I have in mind would be one of 750 words or less, and would be the best shot at convincing someone that CAWG is false — or at least is still an open question. I am thinking of a middle school or high school audience, but perhaps also the “normal” working stiff who went to college awhile back and has forgotten a bit of his science courses.
I am not thinking of a post that would be the “definitive” post on the subject fit for widespread publication, but a short, informal one fit for an informal response to those who are convinced simply because they have heard “Global Warming is Killing US” all their lives.
I hope someone will be so very kind as to take the time to do a post like this.
Another election defeat for the socialists:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13658998
But then they are always “Do as I say, not as I do” hypocrites:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1394422/Saint-Bono-facing-huge-Glastonbury-protest–avoiding-tax.html
Michael J, you have totally misunderstood my proof.
You have confused conditional probability with predicate calculus, or logic.
You have also confused “not” with “there does not exist”.
My definitions mean that “absence of evidence X” is “not evidence X”.
The proof works for particular evidences, not for all, as you misunderstood,
even thou there is no “for all” or “there exists” in the proof.
OK Joseph (2:06 am), how’s this:
If catastrophic global warming (CAGW) was a possibility, it would have happened a few hundred million years ago already.
Well…I guess it’s time for us to line up and get our tattoos:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/society-and-culture/the-dangers-of-boneheaded-beliefs-20110602-1fijg.html
Asshats…
Every place has ’em, and no one knows what to do about ’em…
JimB
IN INSANE USE OF LOW DOSAGE ANTIBIOTICS IN FARMING
If anything shows the real nature of modern “science” its a comparison between global warming and antibiotic immune bacteria. As far as I am aware, the only possible causal link between possible global warming is a tentative link with hurricanes, although this may be changes in ocean circulation. In contrast, if we look at the impact of the growth of anti-biotic immunity of bacteria, we see a large and growing number of people being affected by MRSA in hospitals and now the tragic death and long term injury to many in Germany.
One is an entirely natural event (climate varies naturally) which has yet to my knowledge to claim a single life, the other is a direct consequence of human action and is claiming more and more people, and by the laws of exponential growth, those numbers can only continue to grow if we continue our current insane farming practices.
How to grow an anti-biotic immune bacteria??
First it’s a numbers game, so you need an awful lot of bacteria – and don’t be fussy, as many different types as possible.
Second, you need to expose them to a high enough level of antibiotics to cause those bacteria without any antibiotic immunity to be heavily retarded, but low enough to allow any bacteria with even the slightest trait that helps it against antibiotics to grow. I.e. too much and you kill off any bacteria with a “potentially” good trait.
Next, you need a really “dirty” environment, ideally with a lot of mixing of bacteria from all different places so that there is the maximum potential for “gene swap” and the maximum chance that resistance to anti-biotics can swap from one bacteria to another.
Then, you need to keep up this regime, for year upon year, decade upon decade ensuring that you constantly have an environment selecting for the best bacteria …. and better still, when you do start to get even a small bit of anti-biotic resistance in bacteria, you’ve got to UP THE DOSE to really start pushing the selection mechanism to really ensure that only the most resistant bacteria can survey and push the evolutionary pressure toward immunity.
And hey presto, after several decades, you are almost certain to get antibiotic immune bacteria.
That’s why, when you go to the doctor and get antibiotics, they tell you to “complete the dose”. The point is that you have to ensure that you kill all the bacteria and that there is no chance of any partially resistant bacteria surviving to help breed the next super bacteria.
BUT WHAT THE F***ING *ELL IS THE POINT OF HUMANS “FINISHING THE DOSE” TO STOP EVOLVING ANTIBIOTIC IMMUNITY WHEN THERE ARE MILLIONS OF CATTLE OUT THERE TO DO THE JOB FOR US?
I can’t repeat it often enough, the insanity of feeding low dosage antibiotics to cattle is mindblowingly stupid. It is the speediest way possible to evolve lots and lots of antibiotic immune bacteria.
I won’t go into the strange way that Ecoli in “organic” compost spread on “organic” produce is likely to target those who worry about a bit of warmth and don’t seem to worry that they appear to be the likely vector by which these anti-biotic immune bacteria get into the human population.
BUT HAS ANYBODY EVER HEARD ANYONE EVER RUN A CAMPAIGN TO STOP FEEDING LOW DOSAGE ANTIBIOTICS TO CATTLE?”
Of course not … because unlike the global warming scam, there’s no money in this real and growing problem (literally growing … likely inside of all of us … just waiting for our own immune systems to be under par … and then bang … they take over and there’s then nothing the doctors can do).
Cheap meet = cheap lives = back to the ages when most people had a brother or sister who they saw die during their childhood.
So it is with the Solar question. The measured difference between TSI during Solar maxima & minima is so small, therefore it cannot be the Sun causing Global Warming! However, who says TSI is “THE” metric by which one judges significant changes in the Sun’s power. Just because we haven’t found the direct &/or indirect link, it cannot be so. Prof Mike Lockwood frequently uses this argument, but I suggest that it may be that Lockwood et al may not be as good as they think they are for whatever reasons! With the polar caps on Mars receding & warming, as are other bodies in the Solar System, there has to be the Big Question, why not the Sun? Herschel did win bets on the price of wheat/corn by watching Sunspots, the higher the number the lower the price of corn, & vice-versa. Is that not significant enough to reconsider the non-Solar driven climate changes. They constantly argue that it drove climate in the past, but not now, but don’t offer up a good reason for that sudden change, other than man-made CO2 which at 1/62,500th of the total atmospheric CO2 budget (thought I’d throw in some good sounding words, – it looks good in print!), cannot possibly have a significant affect on climate! I’ll be lecturing economists next at this rate.
Hear, hear on the Stan Rogers paean!
But the lyrics are a bit muddled. E.g.: “The Antelope sloop was a sickening site” — sight.
“She’d list to the port” — a list to the port
Etc.