UPDATE: 7PM EDT MONSTER TORNADO on LIVE WEBSTREAMING near Norman OK
Update by Ryan Maue
A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch (#356) has just been issued for Central Oklahoma and North Central Texas including DFW and OKC.
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
Tornado likelihood is very high… SPC Convective Outlook:
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+ KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS
Real-time Forecast Links:
Tornado Probability -- Outlook issued 1625z May 24, 2011 NCEP 4-km Radar Forecast from two versions of the WRF model (ARW and NMM cores): 48-hour animation initialized at 12:00z on May 24, 2011 (from Ryan Maue’s FSU website)
============================================================== UPDATE: I’ve added my own radar product for people to watch, click the image to animate it:
If you want to track storms at the local level, download a free copy of StormPredator
Radar sez the “tail-end-charlie” cell has passed me on its way to DFW, and the sky outside agrees. I got a little 1-cm. hail.
The radar also shows something I’ve seen before and don’t understand. Off in west Texas and eastern New Mexico there are points that are centers for cloud formation, with the clouds then streaming off to the east and getting bigger, almost like smoke from a stack. I haven’t checked between times if the points are always in the same place, but my impression is that they aren’t, although they’re usually near where they were last time; that could easily be wrong.
Do those points have a name? What’s going on there?
Regards,
Ric
Tornado seems to be targeting the NWS center in Norman/Noble.
We might have a right mover developing south of Russel Kansas, on the north end of the squall line. If it does not get undercut by out flow from the other storms in the line, it is building to the east and slightly south, which would put it on a trajectory to pass near Salina Ks. Looks like 68 Dbz returns at the moment.
Unfortunately news is reporting fatalities in Oklahoma.
Larry
Well, we have a NEW line of T-storms developing off the the west along a Cooke-Wise-Parker county line here in the DFW area, and, a new MD:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0938.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0938
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL AND ERN OK THROUGH N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 356…
VALID 242343Z – 250045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 356 CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES…VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN OK INTO N-CNTRL TX THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NUMEROUS STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH CNTRL AND E-CNTRL OK. MANY STORMS IN CNTRL OK HAVE BECOME TEMPORARILY LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE ASSOCIATED WITH CELL MERGERS AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS. HOWEVER … THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WITH LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG INSTABILITY … AND SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY REORGANIZE DURING THE EVENING.
FARTHER SOUTH STORMS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE ACROSS N-CNTRL TX AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
..DIAL.. 05/24/2011
Sounds a lot like smoke Ric, from a forest/range fire; yes, they show up! Saw that numerous times here weeks ago when Texas was burning just to our west …
BTW – Tornado Warning for Tarrant (Ft. Worth) and Dallas counties … tennis-ball sized hail and confirmation of the tornado by spotters 8:01 PM CDT as I type …
.
Finally got electricy back and internet up. Tornadoes passed about 4 miles north. Brothers, sisters, and kids all safe. Sun is going down (8:45 CDT) so it’s going to be extra dangerous for the people to the east if the storms keep up.
Do you know where the fires are? I don’t see them on the GOES-13 Wildfire ABBA:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/burn/wfabba/wfabba_rt66nmex_last.html
OK S.
Hope you folks in danger take cover. It was a cakewalk today here in Wichita. Nothing like the 7 5/8 ” record breaking hail stone last year. Some six inchers went through my skylights.
Two dead near OKC.
I can now see the incoming high clouds from the next cold front. The low on this one is progged to come into far Norcal then track into the Great Basin. Then, as these late spring monsters always do, hard left turn and on into the Southern Plains.
SXUS76 KMTR 250141 RRA
RERMTR
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
640 PM PST TUE MAY 24 2011
THE FOLLOWING SITE TIED A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE
LOW PREVIOUS YEAR OF
SITE TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD
OAKLAND AIRPORT 47 47 1961
$$
MM
========================
Mind you this is to the SE of the incoming front.
SXUS76 KMTR 250141 RRA
RERMTR
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
640 PM PST TUE MAY 24 2011
THE FOLLOWING SITE TIED A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE
LOW PREVIOUS YEAR OF
SITE TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD
OAKLAND AIRPORT 47 47 1961
MM
==================================
This is to the SE of the incoming front.
Sorry, was trying to post the actual report but something about characters in it / format is hanging up Word Press.
OAK tied a record low today.
OAKLAND AIRPORT 47 47 1961
Good to hear everything is okay OK.
Here is sample RADAR imagery that shows what Ric (I’m assuming) was seeing and I saw earlier and still seems to be active (could not find anything else in that area of Texas or NM that matched his description):
Static image capture – http://oi56.tinypic.com/mhd2rd.jpg
If you click on this link you can get a 1 hr loop and the ‘stuff’ seems to move south … could be mil aircraft playing with chaff too (the two wide traces just north of the center of the PPI paint). There also appears to be precip a little further to the north.
.
And – lest we think this is all over for _us_, nature takes one last stab … this time with a line of storms kicked off at the boundary of the dryline (which can also be seen on RADAR capture):
http://oi52.tinypic.com/snma9z.jpg
And the 0223z / 09:23 PM CDT surface conditions:
http://oi52.tinypic.com/33mwyew.jpg
.
Incoming via local CH 21/CH11 live news –
Report – Large Tornado on the ground with debris via Skywarn spotters in SE Dallas county, near I-45 and I-20 Hutchins Tx area … 9:50 PM CDT
.
KFWS WSR-88D image capture, Dallas county:
http://oi55.tinypic.com/34i1xnd.jpg
approx. 10:01 PM CDT
RE: _Jim @ur momisugly 7:19 pm
Thanks. I slowed the GOES-13 page down. It looks like there was a fire at about 10:00 Zulu south of Perryton in the TX panhandle and another about 10:20 Zulu southeast of Guymon in the OK panhandle.
Hope the people in Dallas are okay.
OK S.
The north end of the storm came through our area, with Tornado sirens blaring, and based on what we were seeing and hearing on the news we expected to see lots of damage from the storm. After getting out, we saw nothing. Based upon past storm warnings and storms (Tornadoes, 100-mph straight winds, heavy hail, and flooding) that have done lots of damage in our area, this storm for our area seems hyped in comparison.
Sorry. I guess I’m tired from all the storms. About 20:15 Zulu on that fire near Guymon, and 00:15 Zulu on the one near Perryton.
OK S.
It is good to be vigilant.
One day….Dallas may be ground zero.
Let’s hope not.
For now those ground zeros are (if that is bad enough) are named Joplin, Tuscaloosa, and so on.
The sheer loss of life and complete destruction from these storms….here in the 21st Century…should give one pause.
This is a bad year for tornadoes. Not outside the realms of natural variability.
But just bad….really BAD.
Here again is a video to remind us all of the power of nature…and our ability to only be in our best fight or flight mode in response.
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
John Public says:
May 24, 2011 at 8:37 pm
The north end of the storm came through our area, with Tornado sirens blaring, and based on what we were seeing and hearing on the news we expected to see lots of damage from the storm. After getting out, we saw nothing. Based upon past storm warnings and storms (Tornadoes, 100-mph straight winds, heavy hail, and flooding) that have done lots of damage in our area, this storm for our area seems hyped in comparison.
================
And that is part of the problem: Weighing the costs of warning people for a potential cry wolf scenario…as opposed to the ACTUAL DANGER.
This dilemma is increased exponentially because of the completely EPHEMERAL nature of tornados.
This problem is solvable….but it will take much ingenuity, knowhow, and foresight.
THE FIRST THING THAT NEEDS TO GO: “Junk” computer-generated or doppler-indicated tornado (or even severe thunderstorm) “warnings”.
This is the government, nanny-state BS Big Brother/Sister “protection” at its worst.
When I was a kid a severe thunderstorm….meant hurricane force winds, hail, and power outages.
Now every blip on the radar that “might” be a severe t-storm…IS declared one.
Enough of this milk-toast, nanny-state BS!
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA
A few areas hard hit, but most of the OKC metro only saw wind and hail. I’m in for some fence repair. We had three long-track tornados, two rated as violent, with fatalities. National news has picked it up. It seems we lost 5 to 7 in OK and KS. There is a missing three-year-old in the NW metro area. There were many homes flattened, with nothing but the slab remaining. http://www.4warn.com/kfor-photos-ok-tornadoes-may-24-20110524,0,7498593.photogallery and http://www.kfor.com/news/local/kfor-tornado-watches-across-oklahoma-20110523,0,166860.story
Severe weather takes many forms. For instance:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_south.htm
Count your blessings. Uncounted millions of wild animals suffer slow miserable deaths by thirst and starvation in a severe drought. I’d gladly take some severe wet weather right about now. I don’t think we’ve had five inches of rain in as many months. This is when we pray for a major hurricane to hit the coast and drive rain bands far inland.
Here in Oklahoma today one piece of data on tv caught my attention… one channel reported that the cloud sporting the F4 tornado topped above 50,000 ft (15.25 km). That’s the tallest I remember hearing of an anvil-head thunderstorm at this latitude.
From Dave Springer on May 24, 2011 at 10:13 pm:
This is obviously something we must immediately get Greenpeace and WWF to work on, maybe even PETA. Drill deep water wells, set up some solar panels, let the generated electricity drive the water pumps, and create watering holes. Broadly speaking, if the skies are sunny and cloudless then conditions are drier and the critters can use the water, if cloudy then cooler and possibly raining so the critters don’t need the water that much. I’m certain those organizations have some funds for global warming research they could channel for this worthwhile project. Maybe they can be convinced it’s all for global warming mitigation, which will look good in their fundraising brochures.
Just don’t use wind turbines as likely only the predators and scavengers will get any real relief, due to the juicy freshly-sliced bird carcasses provided by the turbine blades. As for all the other critters desperately waiting for the wind turbines to provide lots of water so they can survive… WWF and Greenpeace can always just Photoshop out the turbine from their fundraising pics of all the “global warming victims” who had gathered hoping for a sip of water.
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Given the great tragedies we’ve seen of tornadoes hitting large cities, it is obvious what must be done.
Trailer homes must be banned from within the borders of all large population centers. It has been proven that tornadoes are drawn to trailer homes due to how frequently they destroy them, just as carbon emissions have been proven to cause global warming. Thus the ban is needed to keep tornadoes from being drawn to such large concentrations of people.
I’m certain federally-funded studies will provide the definitive proof of this effect, as will the subsequent federally-funded studies for several decades to come. Hopefully the researchers will properly include all the hard data generated from their computer models as further definitive proof, as is common in the mature long-established settled science of climatology.
(BTW, who amongst thou, dour of demeanor, wouldst dare to deny a well-needed spot of humor from those who hath been afflicted and affected by these tragic circumstances?)