UPDATE: 7PM EDT MONSTER TORNADO on LIVE WEBSTREAMING near Norman OK
Update by Ryan Maue
A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch (#356) has just been issued for Central Oklahoma and North Central Texas including DFW and OKC.
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
Tornado likelihood is very high… SPC Convective Outlook:
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE RAPIDLY EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED THIS EVENING. LATEST TCC PROFILER DATA SHOWS 90+ KNOT FLOW AT 6KM...INDICATIVE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX THAT WILL NOSE INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE... SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX...OK...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. STRONG HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL YIELD AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. PRESENT INDICATIONS AND LATEST OPERATIONS/MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE KS/OK DRYLINE BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. EARLY IN THE EVENT...THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE OVER KS AS STORMS INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...CONTINUED HEATING AND LARGE SCALE LIFT DUE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA DURING THE EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING...WITH ALL CONDITIONS FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH TX...CENTRAL OK...AND CENTRAL KS
Real-time Forecast Links:
Tornado Probability -- Outlook issued 1625z May 24, 2011 NCEP 4-km Radar Forecast from two versions of the WRF model (ARW and NMM cores): 48-hour animation initialized at 12:00z on May 24, 2011 (from Ryan Maue’s FSU website)
============================================================== UPDATE: I’ve added my own radar product for people to watch, click the image to animate it:
If you want to track storms at the local level, download a free copy of StormPredator
Dodge City doppler showing tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings.
FYI if anyone wants to pay a small fee for the direct radar feed without delay, I recommend weathertap.com I have no association with them other than I am a subscriber and have used their products to watch storm development when I was storm chasing.
http://www.weathertap.com/
The free radar products you get on the web are usually delayed about 15 minutes from real time, and during a potential severe storm event like this, it is nice to see the radar scans as they update and be able to look at various tilt levels and even the doppler return wind speeds.
Larry
REPLY: StormPredator, linked in the body of the message, at http://www.stormpredator.com offers a free data feed, direct from NWS with no delay. Has all the products. You can also track storms with it and get ETA’s as well as RT watch/warning overlays – Anthony
Gary England on Channel 9 out of Oklahoma City is showing (at 2:15 CDT) a live video of a tornado out by Canton, OK. A small one so far.
OK S.
So far, none of these are “right-movers” (from the mean wind) – not even the T-storm to the west of Dodge City.
And Ryan, your links and animation worked for me w/Opera 11.x as the browser.
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Just watch one of the storm chaser choppers catch a small tornado touchdown. It is dark now. So far, tracks are heading north of the OKC metro, but it is looking like it is only beginning. We cleaned out the storm cellar this morning. The kids are ready.
Lonnie E. Schubert says:
May 24, 2011 at 12:45 pm
Ryan, maybe my Java needs to be updated, but I am not getting your links to work.
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I sent the link to some colleagues, and its happening to them to. I use FF w/o any problems, but it won’t run on my IE either………. anyone got any ideas?
Sorry, that should have been 3:15 CDT and there’s a quarter-mile wide tornado on the ground, also, east of Canton. No more updates, I promise.
OK S.
HEADS UP – Mesoscale Discussion concerning Central Texas
Note in particular the discussion about the ‘cap’ (capping inversion Cinh) being gone and the mid-level jet.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0930.html
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…ERN PARTS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241915Z – 242045Z
A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INITIATE … SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE REGION.
A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX AND IS STARTING TO ADVANCE MORE QUICKLY EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD TO NEAR SAN ANGELO.
THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE ACROSS THE MCD AREA AND STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG.
IN ADDITION…PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40 KT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MAKING CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN ADDITION … STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..BROYLES.. 05/24/2011
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Also note, Ryan, they have extended PDS TW #356 further south; it now includes Stephenville (former site of the WSR-57 that used to cover our area) for instance:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0356.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0356_radar_big.gif
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Interesting to note the original development along the dry line in Texas has ‘leapfrogged’ ahead with the original line dissipating … we now have activity only two counties west of Ft. Worth that showed development about 3:30 PM CDT with intensification by 3:45 PM.
No ‘right-movers’ noted yet either in any of these storms as of about 10 min ago …
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The NEXRAD is looking pretty ugly at 5:19PM EDT (you can turn on animation at the link):
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=OKC
Maybe a good time to review “Tornado Alley” :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_Alley
Cutting to the chase, for those that just want the map:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/35/Tornado_Alley.gif
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Noting a couple cells in Texas and Oklahoma with some right-moving tendencies, but nothing outstanding.
When one SEES a strong right-mover, it will be quite apparent … it is a site to behold to see a singular cell moving in a direction not in accord with the other, nearby cells or with the squall line …
ON THE MOTION AND INTERACTION BETWEEN LEFT- AND RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS noaa.gov pdf file
The Tornado: its structure, dynamics, prediction, and hazards Google Book
Safest, best parts of storms, to see tornado? forum posting; disc about right-movers
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Good right-mover can be seen NNW of DDC WSR-88D at 2145z / 4:45 PM CDT …
Pick a 1 hr loop on the RADAR imagery supplier of your choice.
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Tornados on the ground in OKC metro.
Mike Morgan (KFOR) just said there is a supercell right where the May third tornado was! It is bad here.
Hate to be a thread hog, but … the tail-end Charlie cell in the line in Texas is a right-mover and Dan Henry CH 4 met says will be in metroplex by 5:30 PM CDT …
Attributes of pendant echo (a hook) are evident as well and confirmed by Doppler TVS signature algo.
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Mods/Anthony, if this is getting to be too much, let me know …
New MD for this PDS watch box – http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0934.html
Note in particular bolded text regarding unstable atmosphere and the ‘moist’ boundary layer.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL OK THROUGH N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 356…
VALID 242148Z – 242315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 356 CONTINUES.
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX … LIKELY AFFECTING THE OKLAHOMA CITY AND DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO AREAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM THIS EVENING. GREATEST THREAT CURRENTLY APPEARS ACROSS CNTRL AND S-CNTRL OK.
A LINE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATED ALONG THE DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR ENID IN N-CNTRL OK SWD TO NEAR MINERAL WELLS IN N-CNTRL TX.
THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE … VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE TWIN LAKES VWP ALREADY INDICATE VERY STRONG /60-70 KT/ SFC-6 KM SHEAR AND LARGE HODOGRAPHS WITH 300+ M2/S2 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.
SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN CONFIRMED…AND THIS PARAMETER SPACE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG TRACK … DAMAGING TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DIAL.. 05/24/2011
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Just checked OKC with my Storm Predator software . Look out folks . Same for you in Salina KS .
Didn’t see if it was posted but, here is a link to Gary England and News9 live streaming coverage in Oklahoma:
http://www.news9.com/category/184600/severe-weather-embedded-live-stream-kwtv1?redirected=true
Live streaming from KFOR:
http://www.kfor.com/news/livestreaming/
“Debris Ball” on RADAR picked up off of KFOR video stream 5:45 PM CDT:
http://oi54.tinypic.com/w89aic.jpg
This storm is spinning on the KS-CO border, and dragging a tail up into it from DFW through OKC to ITC. Wow. Big tornado headed our way, but probably will stay south of us. We have significant hail, and it is getting bigger. Mom and the kids are in the cellar. I’m watching Gary England and Mike Morgan.
A “Grinder” reported by KFOR live stream:
http://oi53.tinypic.com/2ypkb4k.jpg
North side of Washington and heading for Noble …
Grinder (as they called it on-air) w/enhanced contrast:
http://oi53.tinypic.com/2vdsnxf.jpg
about 6 PM CDT from KFOR stream
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