National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) map below shows tornado tracks logged by NEXRAD Doppler Radar
NOAA’s preliminary estimate is that there were 211 tornadoes on April 27-28, 2011.
- During the multi-day period of April 26-28, The National Weather Service (NWS) estimates there were a total of 288 tornadoes.
- NWS issued outlooks five days in advance, watches hours in advance, and tornado warnings with an average lead time of 24 minutes. NWS issued warnings for more than 90 percent of these tornadoes.
- The largest previous number of tornadoes on record in one event occurred from April 3-4, 1974, with 148 tornadoes.
Current media reports indicate the death toll is 318 people, and rising. This makes the event the third deadliest tornado outbreak on record.
- The April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak is the deadliest since the March 21, 1932, tornado outbreak that had 332 fatalities.
- Based on combined NOAA, historical research records and current fatality estimates, the April 27-28, 2011, tornado outbreak ranks 6th in single day total fatalities in the United States history. The historic research records extend back to 1680.
- The deadliest single tornado on record was the Tri-State Tornado (Mo., Ill., Ind.) on March 18, 1925, when 695 died.
- Based on combined NOAA and historical research records, the deadliest single day for tornadoes was March 18, 1925, with 747 fatalities across 7 states (including the Tri State Tornado).
Monthly tornado weather summary
Data is preliminary and subject to revision
Month of April 2011 (and record monthly) tornado statistics
NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been more than 600 tornadoes thus far during the month of April 2011.
- The previous record number of tornadoes during the month of April was 267 tornadoes set in April 1974.
- The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.
- The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is around 160.
2011 Year-to-Date (and record annual) statistics
NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been 835 tornadoes so far this year.
- The previous yearly record number of tornadoes was set in 2004 with 1,817.
- May is historically the most active month for tornadoes.
Source: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/april_2011_tornado_information.html
This nfrom MikeSmith a couple mof days ago:
“I have placed arrows pointing to the temperatures in 1884 (the “Enigma Outbreak” which killed as many as 1,200 in the South), the 1936 Tupelo/Gainesville tornadoes (which killed 800+), the “Superoutbreak” of tornadoes in 1974, and Wednesday’s. Note that these tornado outbreaks — which killed even more people — all occurred with cooler atmospheric temperatures.”
Above they mention 1925 and 1932 outbreaks. So is it the 3rd, 4th or 5th most deadly. Clarification anyone.
Derek Sorensen says:
April 30, 2011 at 2:01 pm
“However, is it not the case that the temperatures in Alabama were unseasonably high, and if so didn’t this exacerbate the warm/cold air effect? Hence isn’t it possible that this is in fact an AGW effect? (or a GW effect, at any rate).”
Mississippi and Alabama are bathed by warm blasts from the Gulf all the year. A cold blast in north Alabama might last a week at most and is followed by balmy weather from the Gulf. The temperatures in the Deep South for the last week have been normal to cool. (I am not a meteorologist but am an expert in the region.)
Also see:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703655404576293150621087550.html
That gives us 1925, 1927, and 1932 for extreme weather events, as temperatures rose from a low ca 1910 to a high ca 1940. In past 60 year cycles the upsides seem to take longer than the declines (cycles are quite asymetric), and we are now in a down phase, so kaybe3 temps not unlike that late 1920s period. Does anyone know what La Nina and the PDO looked like in 1925-1932.
Hello Derek,
Something to put into this, noticed the repeated blocking weather in England, right now sustained east winds, also close to drought. I suspect the general global weather patterns have switched mode, probably a year or so ago. (try PDO, 15 to 35 years at a time)
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/ca-pdo.cfm
No-one actually knows what is going on, various guesses.
There is a tornado belt. Plenty is known, real weather people know about that. The conditions necessary altered by other factors? That is the fuss. Loudmouths declaring causal before they can possibly have data, done any work, etc., ho ho.
Look back over a few days at WUWT articles, some useful plots about general conditions. (one even mentions blocking Alaska way
@TimC – good to see you, haven’t spoken for a while.
The question isn’t really about tornados, but about the idea that Alabama is hotter atm than it ought to be, which in turn caused the tornados. I’ve read the other WUWT posts (referred back to them) but they don’t really address that fundamental question.
Don’t mean to be picky, just trying to sort the wheat from the chaff.
“Murray says:
April 30, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Does anyone know what La Nina and the PDO looked like in 1925-1932.”
I am not sure if La Nina was measured before 1950, but see the following from then on:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/rank.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
May I make a recommendation to all who take videos or photos of damage caused by a tornado? Please provide perspective. Please do not take a photo that shows nothing but damage. Such a photo contains very little information, unless the viewer is familiar with the scene before the damage occurred. Frame the photo by showing the undamaged area on both sides. That gives perspective and provides invaluable information. Now the viewer can estimate how extensive the damage was. For those taking video, the advice is the same with the addition that, if you are lucky enough to follow a storm track in a helicopter, include a border of undamaged area on both sides of the track. Otherwise, no one can make a reasonable estimate of the damage. If the damage is great enough, include just one border of undamaged area.
Looking at videos and photos provided by professional news organizations over the web, I see that all of them make the same errors. Amazing! The only way to get some perspective on the damage caused by a given tornado is to find its path on a website that provides a “photo-realistic” map of the area.
” Theo Goodwin says:
April 30, 2011 at 3:02 pm
Mississippi and Alabama are bathed by warm blasts from the Gulf all the year. A cold blast in north Alabama might last a week at most and is followed by balmy weather from the Gulf. The temperatures in the Deep South for the last week have been normal to cool. (I am not a meteorologist but am an expert in the region.)”
Thanks, Theo, that seems to answer the question. Don’t know why I overlooked your reply last night.
On the Texas fires subject I would add: There has been a large number of big not so high altitude volcano eruptions closer to the equator lately. Ecuador, Philippines, Japan, Indonesia and New Zealand. Couple that with the regularly spewing high fliers in Kamchatka and Eyjafyalla solar dimming in the north and you have a brew for sharpened temperature gradients that cause disastrous mixing when the air masses move.
The comment above makes an interesting point. If tornado tracks have moved South this year, and this can be viewed within an historical setting of tracks, CO2-driven climate change seems less of a driver than natural weather pattern variations. The notion that the South is 1 F warmer and 4% moister would not be a driver of the movement South. For that, one would have to compare the relative strength of the cold front dipping further South, causing the southerly movement of the tracks compared to previous seasons. Wonder what the matching analogue seasons would show regarding track position.
Why was the April 5-6, 1936 Tupelo/Gainesville tornado outbreak not mentioned? There were at least 17 tornadoes, with 216 deaths from the tornado in Tupelo, MS, 203 from the tornado in Gainesville, GA and over 450 deaths overall.
http://dlg.galileo.usg.edu/tornado/exhibit/
m4570d0n says:
May 1, 2011 at 10:18 am
On another forum at WUWT, I explained that my mother’s stories about the day Tupelo was “blown away” by a tornado forms a memorable part of my youth. That disaster was in the neighborhood of 1953.
The picture well illustrates what we went though in the southeast. By my count, my home in Ooltewah, TN, (outside Chattanooga) dodged three tornados; with tornados strikes to the north and south of me and only relatively minor wind damage in my community (mainly trees falling on homes).
My kids in Huntsville, AL, experienced near continuous tornados warning throughout the day of the storm. My son lives with his mother in and my daughter is a student at UAH. The power has been out in Huntsville since the storm. UAH has given the students the option of taking their grades “as is” and skipping final exams.
The kids have been though tornados before and are tornado “savvy”. They will go outside to look at them if the doppler radar indicates its relatively safe to do so (i.e., well to the side of the “track”, guided by the noise, and within seconds of a safe spot); but, my daughter said this storm was so different that when she stepped outside the hair stood up on the back of her head and she immediately sought refuge. Both kids said that the warnings lasted so long that the local tornado sirens backup batteries eventually gave out.
Relatives in Muscle Shoals, AL, indicated that at least two towns just to the south of them were completely wiped out. The ‘Shoals area has become a place of refuge. My daughter made an emergency trip to the there to resupply her friends in Huntsville with food, ice, radios, cooking stoves, and propane.
Since I have power, both my kids abandoned Huntsville yesterday (in “convey”) and are now staying with me. On the way, they went through a badly damaged town just outside Huntsville (don’t know which one) where there “there was nothing left higher than 18 inches tall”.
Regards,
Kforestcat
Murray says:
April 30, 2011 at 2:50 pm
“This nfrom MikeSmith a couple mof days ago:
“I have placed arrows pointing to the temperatures in 1884 (the “Enigma Outbreak” which killed as many as 1,200 in the South), the 1936 Tupelo/Gainesville tornadoes (which killed 800+), the “Superoutbreak” of tornadoes in 1974, and Wednesday’s. Note that these tornado outbreaks — which killed even more people — all occurred with cooler atmospheric temperatures.”
Above they mention 1925 and 1932 outbreaks. So is it the 3rd, 4th or 5th most deadly. Clarification anyone.”
I’m pretty sure those stats are off. The Tupelo/Gainesville event (as mentioned above) resulted in anywhere from 400-500 fatalities, whereas the Enigma Outbreak had no where near 1200 deaths…
So anyway, its most likely the third deadliest, after the Tri-State event and the Tupelo/Gainesville sequence. This is assuming that all those people still missing are alive, which we all certainly hope to be the case.
…unless that is, the high estimate of the deaths is due to the common disregard for African-American fatalities before the 1940’s and 50’s.
@Tarpon… The hurricane that you speak of was actually detected by a junior meteorologist several days before the actual storm, and he was rebuffed by the senior meteorologists in Galveston. He was right, they were wrong, and as a result of ego, MANY people ended up dying needlessly.