Non-quote of the week

Usually I have “Quote of the week, but in this case, the silence says far more than any words the Goreacle might utter.

At least somebody outside of the blogosphere noticed.

From masslive.com where they say:

“Snows of Kilimanjaro defy global warming predictions”

Representatives for Al Gore declined to comment on this article.

Could Al Gore look any dumber over this?

Read the full article here, give the journalist some props.

==================================================================

See also this story Kilimanjaro regaining its snow cap where commenter SonicFrog says:

Anthony… Here is a better article to link to on the subject. And isn’t this a most damning quote?

“Unfortunately, we made the prediction. I wish we hadn’t,” says Douglas R. Hardy, a UMass geoscientist who was among 11 co-authors of the paper in the journal Science that sparked the pessimistic Kilimanjaro forecast. “None of us had much history working on that mountain, and we didn’t understand a lot of the complicated processes on the peak like we do now.”

WHAT?????

“None of us had much history working on that mountain, and we didn’t understand a lot of the complicated processes on the peak like we do now.”

So WHAT THE HELL were you doing publishing and supporting this AS IF IT WAS CERTAIN?????

I wonder if anyone will demand a retraction from Thompson and Hardy?

Yes, I wonder.

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Mike McMillan

“Could Al Gore look any dumber over this?”
Don’t sell him short.

David

Why is it that most story on Kilimanjaro still talk about global warming, when the last studies attribute receding glaciers to deforestation? Not even a word on this in the article. Nothing.
REPLY: cuz understanding real science, using big words like “evapotranspiration”, is hard – Anthony

Gary Hladik

Good article, but it doesn’t mention the role of local deforestation in the decline of Kilimanjaro’s glaciers. Fortunately, at least one of the comments does.

Mark Twang

Leopards, take warning!

Dan Inesanto

I’m not so sure this article is quite the dramatically damning piece it seems to be made out to be. The article is saying the original claims were overstated, not that they were completely wrong.
That things can be, and are, over-hyped even in things like science journals is nothing new. Now, if it turned out that instead of merely overstating how quickly the ice would disappear, it turned out that the study prediction was 180 degrees wrong and that the ice was starting to grow, that would be worthy of great and dramatic statements.
That the snow/ice will disappear in 40-60 years instead of the originally predicted 15 years isn’t all that dramatic, at least not to my mind.
I’m annoyed that the article didn’t even touch on the largest reasons for the ice’s shrinking – changes in humidity because of surrounding land uses. It’s not AGW from CO2 that’s causing the change, but the changes in the local air moisture levels from all the farming development surrounding the mountain.

Dan Inesanto

And yes, my comment about ice growing back on Kilimanjaro being worthy of dramatic statement was purposeful because of this. 🙂

Karl Maki

Oh, but you should highlight the Ironic Quote of the Week from geoscientist Lonnie Thompson:
The opinions of global warming doubters will change on a dime depending on whether it is cold winter or a hot summer.
I had to read that three times before I finally understood he was referring to skeptics rather than AGW proponents.

pat

“The snow-covered peak of Kilimanjaro is the highest point in Africa and is a landmark of Tanzania. However, the famous mountain is seriously affected by the consequences of climate change. The glacier atop Kilimanjaro is melting rapidly, and will probably vanish completely at some point between 2015 and 2020. Less visible is the threat to the entire Kilimanjaro ecosystem posed by changes in water balance. Historically, the region at the foot of the mountain has been densely wooded, providing habitat and wood resources for local populations. Melting glacial water, on which the local population depends, combines to form several rivers that feed the great Pangani river basin.
During the past years, unpredictable precipitation patterns, water scarcity and population growth have changed land use in the region. The local population has had to adapt to the changes, often by clearing forest in order to create new arable land. However, the loss of forests aggravates the cycle of water scarcity and soil erosion, further destabilizing the ecosystem.
In order to stop this cycle, the Ministry of Tourism and National Resources has cooperated with the Ministry of Energy and Minerals, research institutions, and NGOs to develop a joint project with a budget of 3.3 million dollars. The project aims to start reforestation programs and to find alternative sources of income for local populations. Overall, the purpose is to raise awareness of the importance of biodiversity and sustainability.”
http://www.adaptationlearning.net/experience/kilimanjaro-region-reforestation-and-raising-public-awareness
Note the obligatory blaming of AGW while acknowledging the real cause of the receding glacier.

wobble

“we didn’t understand a lot of the complicated processes on . . . like we do now.”

I expect to hear this type of excuse more and more throughout this decade.

Jeff L

“Unfortunately, we made the prediction. I wish we hadn’t”
I am guessing there will be a lot more of these statements made over the coming years on various alarmist AGW statements that had been made.

Bob Diaz

//Begin Sarcasm Mode//
See, what more proof do you need that Global Warming is real!!!
Global Warming started to take away the snow, but because we didn’t act, it’s putting it back again!!!
😉

Good article, but it doesn’t mention the role of local deforestation in the decline of Kilimanjaro’s glaciers. Fortunately, at least one of the comments does.
I’m finishing a blog post that will mention that. Seems I’m doing this in reverse. Usually I write the blog, then post the bits from it, and not the other way around.

“The article is saying the original claims were overstated, not that they were completely wrong.” [How’d I do with the slash eye thing?]
I live in a kind of black and white world. You are completely right, or some degree of wrong. (Or I am not bright enough to know which–but that notwithstanding, you are one or the other.)
“overstated” is not right, so it is wrong.
As I say determining right or wrong my be beyond my instrumentation, my cognition capability, my whatever. Being unable to determine which has no effect on what is.

Nuke

What are you gonna believe, the experts or your lying eyes?

Robert M

The AGW promoting “Scientist” got a lot of input to the article, but I think his message still did not get out.. I’m going to help him out…
1. Yes, our prediction was wrong, our mistake was making a falsifiable prediction. What we meant to say was that all the ice and snow will melt off of Kilimanjaro at some point in the future, after we are all dead. The planet is going to die, so are you, if you don’t sign away your freedom and walk off a cliff for us…
Anyone who disagrees with this is a denialist and is guilty of all sorts of malfeasance and should be punished for crimes against humanity.
Any questions?

Alex

“The opinions of global warming doubters will change on a dime depending on whether it is cold winter or a hot summer. The only opinion that matters is nature’s. Nature has a way of humbling us all. It still remains to be seen just who that will be”
I think Freud had a name for this…

Monroe

I have a glacier in my front yard and it is not receding because it snowed 4 inches yesterday. Bloody hell!

Fear not, Anthony. I have a quote for you that is…stunning…yes, that’s about right.
http://cbullitt.wordpress.com/2011/03/21/agw-assclown-non-sequitur-of-the-week/

Ben M

Increasing snow on Kilimanjaro during the “warmest year on record”.
That’s got to be ‘consistent’ with global warming, doesn’t it?

Robertvdl

“Could Al Gore look any dumber over this?”
He knew it was nonsense. You think he is stupid !

David A. Evans.

The sole reason they regret making the prediction is that they didn’t place the date beyond verification.
DaveE.

Jit

Forest + Time
= Glacier
Forest + People
= Desert
Desert + Time
= No glacier + No people
No people + Time
= Scrub
Scrub + No people + Time
= Forest
Forest + Time
= Glacier

Yet another successful prediction for the CO2 mediated climate variability model.
(just joking)

Fred from Canuckistan

“So WHAT THE HELL were you doing publishing and supporting this AS IF IT WAS CERTAIN?????”
Because they practice Climate Scientology.
In depth knowledge, experience and facts are irrelevant to preferred and believed outcomes.

Jimbo

The problem with a lot of these alarmist researchers is that they rush to publish so they do further research to clear up uncertainties. ;O)
Kilimanjaro’s ice cap has been receding since at least the 1880s.

“Results suggest glaciers on Kilimanjaro are merely remnants of a past climate rather than sensitive indicators of 20th century climate change….All ice bodies on Kilimanjaro have retreated drasti-cally between 1912 –2003. Despite air temperatures always being below freezing,..”
http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/tanzania/pubs/cullen_etal_2006grl.pdf

BarryW

Robertvdl says:
March 21, 2011 at 11:52 am
“Could Al Gore look any dumber over this?”
He knew it was nonsense. You think he is stupid !

Never underestimate Gore’s stupidity. Re: “The earth’s core is a million degrees”.

Philip Peake (aka PJP)

The problem for these people is that things didn’t move as fast as they anticipated/hoped.
They thought there wold be sweeping international agreements within a year or so, and that shortly after that most of the world’s population would be living living in caves, only getting information relayed to them from on high by officially sanctioned messengers, so their prognostications would never be put to the test, and if anyone did notice, they could claim it was recovery due to their enlightened policies.
In a less civilized (but more just) world, these people would be burned at the stake.

FerdinandAkin

/SARC ON
Global Climate Disruption has disrupted our ability to predict future disruption of the climate.
In other news, the well documented warming in the Arctic, caused by the atmospheric increase in the powerful greenhouse gas CO2, is melting the ice over the Arctic Ocean. This reduction in the weight of the ice is causing geologic rebound resulting in seismic events like the one off the coast of Japan.
The Church of CAGW is pleased to inform you that you can now buy your way out the sins of CO2 through our non-profit, globally green, Carbon Credit Corporation. Just send money, all will be forgiven.
/SARC OFF

Jeremy

What is a “Geoscientist” ??
Sounds made up. Is that like one of those custom-majors that some universities let you make where you pick your own coursework and slap a name on your degree?

Harold Pierce Jr

IIRC I saw a short clip on the TV about a lady whose goal was to plant a billion trees around the base of the mountain.

“None of us had much history working on that mountain, and we didn’t understand a lot of the complicated processes on the peak like we do now.”
“The glaciers are still shrinking, and in the next decades they will almost certainly disappear…”
Real scientists should be able to apply a sort of mathematical induction here.
If P is true of X, and P is true for X+1 no matter what X is, then P is true of the whole series.
By extension: If you’re wrong about the present value, and you have no way of knowing how to calculate a future value given the present situation, then you’re wrong about the whole idea.

D. King

Then there’s this little nugget.

Jimbo

They must let go of the heat on Kilimanjaro.

“The concept considers the peculiarities of the mountain and implies that climatological processes other than air temperature control the ice recession in a direct manner. A drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19th century and the ensuing drier climatic conditions are likely forcing glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro.”
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1008/abstract

It is currenty warmcold on the mountain at at 5895 m altitude with a forecast of hotsnow to fall occasionally.
http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Kilimanjaro/6day/top

Allan M

I wonder if anyone will demand a retraction from Thompson and Hardy?
Are you sure this isn’t Laurel and Hardy?

Tom in South Jersey

Gee, I would imagine that the processes involved in Global Climate Change are a bit more “complicated” than the snow cap of one mountain, but that is just me.

Robuk

They say,
None of us had much history working on that mountain, and we didn’t understand a lot of the complicated processes on the peak like we do now.”
But they still made that prediction, they still don`t understand the processes and are now predicting 4 to 5 decades, utter rubbish.

Tenuc

Funnily enough, they said the same thing about snow in British winters – and since then we’ve had three very cold and snowy winters in a row. Both evets could be an example of Murphy’s Law, which seems to be a lot more solid than the conjecture of CAGW.
Climate science doesn’t really have a clue!

Merrick

Yeah. Don’t misunderestimate Al!

GeneDoc

Thank goodness it was peer reviewed “science”. Science and Nature just shouldn’t bother with climate articles, since they seem to often have serious errors.

Jimbo

““The opinions of global warming doubters will change on a dime depending on whether it is cold winter or a hot summer. The only opinion that matters is nature’s. Nature has a way of humbling us all. It still remains to be seen just who that will be” in the end, Thompson said.”

Ahhhhhh! We have been told that as a result of global warming a few things might happen:
Plants move uphill
Plants move downhill
Northern Hemisphere winters warmer
Northern Hemisphere winters colder
Sahel to get less rain
Sahel to get more rain
and so on……………

R.S.Brown

…and this afternoon, in Chile, President Obama included the
shrinking of Chilean glaciers as a partial reason for his going
green investment encouragement/incentives down there.
Nobody’s really studied to see if deforestation for wood products
has/has not any relationship to the status of Chile/Peru glaciers,
unlike the Kilimanjaro area of Japan.
I foresee a rush for research grants tilted to document how climate
change in Chile is responsible, unlike the deforestation documented
in Japan.

Dave Dardinger

Jit,

Forest + Time
= Glacier
Forest + People
= Desert
….
Forest + Time
= Glacier

I think I hear a folk song in the making…
Where have all the glaciers gone, long time passing….

kwik

This is just the beginning of lots and lots of excuses from the Gore-Parrots.

Dave G

Damn it’s getting harder to climb out of this hole

D King… i hate you for that! I watched it… Now I can’t un-watch it!!!

rbateman

“None of us had much history working on that mountain, and we didn’t understand a lot of the complicated processes on the peak like we do now.”
And now they want us to believe they are all better now.

D. King

Sonicfrog says:
March 21, 2011 at 1:21 pm
“…Now I can’t un-watch it!!!”
Well, I hope you learned something!
Now we have to unlearn the kids.

This will be the first story on news tonight.
/sarc

Representatives for Al Gore declined to comment on this article.
hahahahahahaha………. hahahahahahahahaha
yes, that’s laughing
Al Gore is a professional speaker. He had nothing to say.