Why a "Revenue Neutral" Energy Tax Isn't

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Over at her excellent blog, Judith Curry is hosting a discussion that in part is about “revenue-neutral” carbon (in reality energy) taxes. This is another example of where being a generalist is an advantage. I’ve started and run businesses, so I know why revenue neutral isn’t neutral at all when it comes to an energy tax.

 

Figure 1. The money doesn’t always end up where you think it will go.

The reason that energy taxes are not revenue neutral is that although the government does indeed return the taxes to the consumers, there is a hidden effect working under the radar that most folks don’t think about.

A businessman prices any product based on how much money he has in it. A typical rule of thumb for manufactured products, for example, is that your product should sell for around twice what you have directly invested in producing it.

So a typical product cost analysis might look something like this:

Widget Production Cost = $10 materials + $10 labor + $10 energy = $30 total cost per widget

Widget Sales Price ≈ 2 * Widget Production Cost ≈ $60 per widget

The businessman has to do that, he or she has to get a percentage return on the money that they have tied up in the product. So I go in and buy a widget, I pay $60, and go home happy.

Now, remember that the deal with a “revenue-neutral tax” is that the consumer is supposed to get the money back from the government. According to the pundits, this means that a revenue-neutral tax won’t slow down the economy, since the taxes aren’t removed from circulation, instead they’re returned right back to the consumers. We’ll ignore the details on how that is supposed to happen in a fair and equitable manner, although that’s another interesting can of worms. For our present purposes, we’ll leave that worm tin hermetically sealed and just assume that the US Government in its brilliant wisdom has decided to impose a $10 tax on the energy that’s used to make widgets. To balance that out and make it all revenue neutral, they’ll give you that money back as a crisp new $10 bill when you buy a widget. Perfectly revenue neutral. What’s not to like?

Here’s the difficulty. Let’s run the new widget costing numbers including the tax.

Widget Production Cost = $10 materials + $10 labor + $20 energy = $40 total cost

Widget Sales Price = 2 * Widget Production Cost = $80 per widget

So I go in to buy another widget, I give the widget man $80, and the Government gives me $10 and says everything is for the best in this, the best of all possible worlds. It’s all balanced since the tax was $10 and I got the $10 back, so the Government and I are exactly even, shake hands and part revenue-neutral friends …

Except for the part where I’m short ten bucks, and the widget maker has made ten dollars extra for the same widget. The revenue is neutral, but despite that, in the case of energy taxes the net effect is to slow down the economy.

Why will the economy slow? If we have the same amount of goods at higher prices, demand will fall and the economy will slow. It’s basic economics.

And that’s why a “revenue-neutral” energy tax isn’t neutral at all … and more to the point, it’s one reason why taxing energy in any form is a really dumb idea. Even when it’s revenue-neutral it slows the economic cycle, and when it’s not revenue-neutral, it slows it even more.

w.

PS – In addition, an energy tax is a very regressive tax. An extra $10 energy tax for the energy used to commute to work means little to the CEO, but may break the bank of the janitor. Taxing energy is a bad plan for a host of reasons.

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167 Comments
Steve from rockwood
March 20, 2011 8:26 pm

Jordan you are a fake. Goodbye.

Jordan
March 21, 2011 12:48 am

Sorry for getting Ira’s gender wrong.
Steve – your comment is incorrect.
Willis – Well I don’t know how you leapt to the view that I called you a liar. Your ability to interpret is still obscured by your emotional condition.
Willis: “You walked in the door, and the first words out of your mouth were that I was way too aggressive”
No – my first post here was “March 18, 2011 at 11:29 am” where I initially pointed out (politely) that I found your basic argument wrong because pricing in a competitive market is not simply a matter of totting-up your costs and demanding that payment from your customers.
But when I saw your dismissive tone towards Ira and others, I followed-up with a reply to you which was much more aligned to your own combatative style . And boy-oh-boy you didn’t like it did you.
First law of getting on with people – speak to others as you would like to be spoken to yourself.
And here’s one from the schoolyard: if you cannot take it, then don’t dish it out.
To repeat -in the land of idiotic businessment, it is your competitors who are the idiots for limiting your profits.
Another tip (if that’s not too patronising): shouting from authority never works. Not in science and not anywhere else. You may or may not have been CFO for a $40M company (I basically don’t know because I don’t have evidence either way). I don’t know how successful the business(es) is/was, or how tough (competitive) the market is/was, for how long you kept that post, how you performed, or why you left. Without the full context, the basic claim doesn’t add much.
In view of what I saw as an incrorrect analysis above, I was entitled to bring that to your attention. And your refusal to respond on the substance of the matter led me to questioned your competence when you started bleating in that combatative style you like to dish out (but you cannot hack when it comes back to you).
Willis: “You started to lecture me as if I were an infant.”
No – I was explaining my reasoning, and there may have been others on the thread who could have used an explanation of net current assets/liabilities to understand where I was coming from. Your emotional state coloured your vision. But your comment does say a lot about your emotional state.
Let me sum up:
Your statement on pricing and taxation is inconsistent (I’ll avoid the word “wrong” ) with generally accepted reasoning on competitive pricing. Link given above to let you see where I was coming from.
A lesser point (which came from your post to Ira), I don’t agree with your claim that business funds every dime from shareholder funds (and therefore deserves a return on assets on that amount). It is more complicated than that since the balance of current assets/liabilities is a potential source of funding, and the balance of taxation (all forms) does not necessarily leave the taxman sitting on cash (sure, it can do that, but I believe those situations are not the norm). And whether businesses earn a return on any dime has as much to do with the competitive environment than their cost base.
On taxtation, I referred to some business accounts to show how they have a large current liability for tax due. This combines with the timing of payments in current assets and liabilities to complicate the question about whether “baked-in” taxes paid on inputs are cash-negative to business.
Willis: “I hope you can learn to talk about science on science websites. ”
Your arguments on this thread were economic.
Willis: “I hope you can find a situation where you don’t have to hide behind an alias to state your opinions.”
Yes I have – it’s no longer an issue.

Steve from rockwood
March 21, 2011 5:08 am

Jordan,
I respect your need for an alias when posting into the blogosphere.
On reading your paragraph above on liabilities and taxation you need to go do some homework.
Anything that shows up on the liability side of a financial statement has negative cash flow issues. If you doubt that, just stop paying your liabilities and then let me know how that worked out for you.

Steve from rockwood
March 21, 2011 5:21 am

Jordan,
As you are savvy with financial statements check out the government of Canada return for 2010.
Most people don’t know they have “energy tax” as a line item under revenue having raised over $7 billion last year.
It would be interesting to note how they would show a new energy tax.
BTW that line item under revenue shows up in the many corporate financial statements under cost of production.
A few other tid-bits: the cost of running the government is about 17.5% of revenue.
Crown corporations cost more money to run than they take in – they operate at a loss.
It would be interesting to see how a revenue neutral tax could be implemented knowing this.

Steve from rockwood
March 21, 2011 5:46 am

Jordan,
I’m sure you know this already, but companies need to estimate their tax liabilities and these show up as accruals. When the tax bill comes – and it always does – hopefully they have set aside some cash (this reduces their cash flow but you know that) to pay the bill.
In a hidden tax, which is what Willis was talking about I believe, the tax is present inside the product. Using an obvious example such as gasoline, if the government implemented another tax the cost of goods would go up. Because business owners generally use a markup when pricing, the actual price paid by the consumer now includes both the tax and the markup on the tax. I think this was Willis’ point.
This is basic stuff. In fact my government used to have a manufacturers sales tax that was buried in the price of goods sold. It was seen as an inefficient tax because of the markup and the government eliminated it, replacing it with a tax that was charged only when you bought the product.
If you embed a tax in a product, the price paid by the consumer will be higher than just the tax added. You don’t need to hide behind tax liability accruals to understand this.

Jordan
March 21, 2011 12:38 pm

Steve:
“Anything that shows up on the liability side of a financial statement has negative cash flow issues. If you doubt that, just stop paying your liabilities and then let me know how that worked out for you.”
You mentioned accruals. Without trying to lecture, accruals are due to the matching principle: businesses report revenue and profit for a reporting period which is not the same as the timing of cashflows. A current liability sits on the balance sheet to show the business has the benefit of cash not paid out (and therefore not cash provided by shareholders).
The other side of this is current assets (typically trade debtors) for payments due to be made to the business. Basically other people sitting on your cash. It’s great to have the sales and profit, but even better to have the cash as early as possible.
So – in terms of how you are funding your business … a current liability is “cash positive” and a current asset is “cash negative” (excuse the jargon).
A really fortunate business (with no competition) could simply pass a new tax into its prices with no loss of volume. Reported profit could be neutral. The change in cashflow position would depend on relative payment terms for trade creditors and debtors (and perhaps change in stock).
A more realistic case is a business that cannot pass the tax straight onto customers due to competitive pressures (including product substitution). Reported profit will fall because the increase in cost was not simply passed onto customers. But the net cash position depends on relative payment terms. If it has increased its prices by some amount there will be more money due to come in. Change in net cash position after the tax is introduced is then dependent on when it is due to pay its trade creditors – it could even be cash-positive (but, I should stress – profit negative).
There is another point worth making. There will be a “taxable event” where the taxman identifies a tax collector business at some point in the supply chain. This is the point where the taxman intervenes to calculate and then collect taxes. Everything else is a knock-on consequence along the supply chain. Tax is usually due after the taxable event – so the tax collector business will have a creditor for the new tax due (they get the cash for a while). The tax collector business may well suffer its share in reduced profits, but it is likely to be cash-positive and its accounts will have a large tax charge in its current assets to show it.
After all of that, I do absolutely agree that a carbon tax is bad for both businesses and their customers – especially when it is being raised for some notion of saving the planet from something which (I firmly believe) is essentially harmless.

Jordan
March 21, 2011 2:04 pm

Oops – I meant to say: “The tax collector business may well suffer its share in reduced profits, but it is likely to be cash-positive and its accounts will have a large tax charge in its current liabilities to show it.” (not current asssets)
(Steve – I came back to post as you deserved the courtesy of a reply to a fair question. )

Steve from rockwood
March 21, 2011 3:55 pm

Jordan,
Thanks for your post. Sorry for the fake statement.
I could quibble a bit about corporate taxes factoring into cash flow but there are tricky things happening out there, such as carrying losses forward. We never had that problem.
Cheers.

Jordan
March 22, 2011 12:43 am

Willis – I will reply to your post this evening UK time (no time right now).
If you get the chance,you still have not explained were it was in the above text that I called you a liar. I would appreciate an explanation.
Thanks.

Jordan
March 22, 2011 12:06 pm

Willis –
Still no retraction or explanation of your accusation that I called you a liar. I’ll put that down to difference in time zones. Don’t feel shy about fessing up when you get around to it.
You cannot harp-on about me intervening in a discussion between you and Ira. This place is nothing like a forum for private conversations. How often do you see people chiming-in when they have something to add to the general flow of the thread?
You attacked Ira and others in a public place. And a passer-by intervened to pull you up on your bad behaviour.
I decided it would be interesting to approach the matter with a similar demeanour to your own direct and uncompromising style. When I said “too agressive … count to 10”, it wasn’t particularly rude or hurtful compared to your own posts.
The problem may have been lack of the respect you might think you deserve. And because of that, you completely erupted. One of the most extraordinary displays of articulated handwaving and rage I have ever seen on the internet.
A sight to behold. Enough to make Tamino blush.
If you had stopped to pay attention and ask questions, you might have stopped making an AR_SE of yourself. But you had the red goggles on and you kept going. Spluttering gobshite like “you-picked-the-wrong-guy” and “poked-a-hornet’s-nest”. Plus your own version of that old favourite: “don’t-you-know-who-I-am”. (Answer: err, no I don’t, and I’ll judge you on my own experience of you).
It was unmitigated school bullyboy stuff – what an impression!
That classic bit about picking teeth up off the floor of some random bar is worthy of further comment.
Think about it Willis, I came here for years because I found generally sober discussion. Your analogy reduces WUWT to something akin to a bar full of inadequate and emotional failures, where alchohol-induced violence is the norm.
If this is the future of WUWT, I should imagin you’ll eventually learn a thing or two about elasitcity of demand. It’s a pity, because WUWT used to be much better than this.
There is a saying “if you cannot beat them, join them”. Right now WUWT is beating them, but I fail to understand why you seem to want to join them.
Not for me, thanks.

D. J. Hawkins
March 24, 2011 3:16 pm

Jordan

I might take the opportunity to respond in your own words Willis – your claim that tax DOES “tie-up money with the taxman” is, well, nonsense. Yeah, Willis, I’d say you are way too aggressive with your fantasies about taxes on business and your claims about whether money would be tied up.
PS – take another deep breath and count to ten. And the next time you reply to me, feel free to adopt a far more temperate and conciliatory tone.

You seem to think the business world ends at the Welsh coast. You still haven’t had the grace to take your ‘umble pie on the issue of VAT. I will ask you directly, since the issue as posed by Willis is a US “wellhead” levy, if you want to retract that bit of nonsense analysis?

Jordan
March 24, 2011 4:47 pm

Willis – sir, I respect you for your last post.
I thought I had been turfed out when you showed me the door and Anthony stepped in to give me a shove.
Please don’t think I’m posh or an academic. I’m from ordinary stock , I work in the private sector and I don’t have a PhD. Like everybody else who shows up here on WUWT, I come with my own particular package of background, experience and knowledge.
I accept your points about cultural differences. But please keep in mind that you present the face of WUWT to the world. Style and presentation can count for a lot.
I don’t mind hard-fought battles. But WUWT needs to keep a cap on acrimony:
To the convinced, acrimonious debate sings to the gallery and doesn’t change much. It might even encourage a gang mentality and a closing of minds.
To the unconvinced, it is likely to be a turn-off.
To opponents, it is a spoiling tactic whihc can be used to deflect the arguments.
I know that I was winding you up and I am sorry for doing that. But there came a point when I though WUWT should have a glimpse in the mirror.
I have a great deal of admiration for what people like you, Anthony and Steve are doing. For the personal quality of your last post Willis – I will say that you have a friend in me.
On the subject of the thread, I have added further explanations in answer to Steve. We could discuss it more, or we could move on. Personally, I’d prefer to move on.

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