From the Global Warming Policy Foundation
The nuclear emergency is Japan will be a disaster for global warming activists. For a start, Japan’s own emissions will most likely rise in the medium term, now that so many nuclear plants – one of the most greenhouse-friendly power sources – have been knocked out: ‘Analysts think Japan will compensate for the shutdown of its 10 nuclear reactors by relying more heavily on traditional fossil fuels.’ —Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun, 16 March 2011
Carbon dioxide emissions in Germany may increase by 4 percent annually in response to a moratorium on seven of the country’s oldest nuclear power plants, as power generation is shifted from nuclear power, a zero carbon source, to the other carbon-intensive energy sources that currently make up the country’s energy supply. –Sara Mansur, Breakthrough Institute, 15 March 2011
It was only a matter of time before environmentalists would point toward Japan, say, “We told you so,” and then declare a moral victory for anti-nuclear activism. Merely for the sake of argument, let’s pretend they are right. Eliminating nuclear power might be a nice experiment. But there is one big problem: Environmentalists are trying to eliminate all the other alternatives, as well. All sources of energy pose some sort of risk or cost. Risk-free, cost-free energy is a complete myth and simply does not, and will not, exist. Groups that never propose realistic solutions are simply not worth taking seriously. — Alex B. Berezow, RealClearScience, 15 March 2011
The main problem with energy supply systems is that for the last 100 years, governments have insisted on meddling with them, using subsidies, setting rates, and picking technologies. Consequently, entrepreneurs, consumers, and especially policymakers have no idea which power supply technologies actually provide the best balance between cost-effectiveness and safety. –Ronald Bailey, Reason Online, 15 March 2011
For all the emotive force of events in Japan, though, this is one issue where there is a pressing need to listen to what our heads say about the needs of the future, as opposed to subjecting ourselves to jittery whims of the heart. Most of the easy third ways are illusions. Energy efficiency has been improving for over 200 years, but it has worked to increase not curb demand. Off-shore wind remains so costly that market forces would simply push pollution overseas if it were taken up in a big way. A massive expansion of shale gas may yet pave the way to a plausible non-nuclear future, and it certainly warrants close examination. The fundamentals of the difficult decisions ahead, however, have not moved with the Earth. —Editorial, The Guardian, 15 March 2011
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It is unfortunate that the concept of ‘nuclear power stations’ is limited to pressurised light water reactors. They are risky and evidently dangerous when failing.
There are at least two competing nuclear technologies that have been proven to work and there would have been a drastically different outcome had either of them been used in Japan. I am of course referring to CANDU (U235) and Thorium-flouride reactors.
Wait just a minute….what would a tsunami do to an offshore windfarm?
Not that anybody would really notice…..
It’s worse than we thought?
Rick says:
March 16, 2011 at 9:36 am
Depends on the distance “offshore”. In many cases, the windfarm is far enough out that the tsunami (“harbor wave” by definition) isn’t much of a wave at all. I’d say unless the wind farm were on or next to the shore line, the impact would be minimal.
Hey, can we all ride around in 40 year old cars and shut down the modern car industry if we have an accident? I am not sorry to see the old designs taken off line, nor am I sorry to see AGW pumpers succumb to to reality, but really now.
Crispin in Waterloo says:
March 16, 2011 at 9:36 am
It is unfortunate that the concept of ‘nuclear power stations’ is limited to pressurised light water reactors. They are risky and evidently dangerous when failing.
There are at least two competing nuclear technologies that have been proven to work and there would have been a drastically different outcome had either of them been used in Japan. I am of course referring to CANDU (U235) and Thorium-flouride reactors.
Of the two the Thorium reactors are the better bet as they fail safe and can be built small and modular. So in theory a roll out of Thorium reactors could be relatively rapid once the planning regulations are clarified as they are NOT PWRs or similar U235 designs that can melt down.
But emotional politicians both central and local government will be making these decisions egged on by an excitable and ignorant media – so one should not expect a sensible outcome.
Crispin in Waterloo says:
March 16, 2011 at 9:36 am
Yes, rule number one for a Nuclear Power Plant should be;
-When you turn off the Power, the plant is turned off. Period.
It should not explode.
I hope we are smart enough to realize that the events in Japan raise serious questions about the safety of nuclear power generation and I further hope that, once the dust has settled, we investigate those questions. This is simply common sense. We must not however entertain knee jerk responses on either side. These would fall into one of two categories. On the one side we already are hearing the protests against nuclear energy from the leftist greenies, protests that have simply gained in volume since the Japan earthquake, and are no more valid now that they were before. On the other hand we are hearing from the pro-nuclear forces that nuclear is safe, the system worked, no need for moratoriums, etc. and these too are hard to take seriously.
Yes, the events in Japan are so far from normal (8.9 quake with 23 foot tsunami) that it would have been miraculous had nothing gone wrong at any of the many reactors in Japan. And yes, the anti-nuclear folks seem to forget this fact.
But the events did in fact happen, and things did in fact go wrong at some of those reactors. The impact is yet to be fully understood. Given that, a little honest questioning is warranted. In examining these questions we will undoubtedly come up with even greater safety in the nuclear energy industry worldwide.
And BTW, I am pro-nuclear with some education in the area.
Of course as has also been noted the CO2-GW sect are also (still?!) promoting the total lie that CO2-GW encourages earthquakes. This link usefully exposes that deceitful drivel- http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=7394
For more on solar-lunar earthquake links and the dangerous times we live in please see- http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=326&c=5
Thanks, Piers
Sorry if my earlier comment is a little OT here. I’ve just been waiting too long to react to all the hype on the situation in Japan.
“Consequently, entrepreneurs, consumers, and especially policymakers have no idea which power supply technologies actually provide the best balance between cost-effectiveness and safety.” –Ronald Bailey, Reason Online, 15 March 2011
Actually I slightly disagree with that statement. The entrepreneurs know *exactly* where the money (and perceived safety) lie – windpower. The market is completely swamped right now. Companies are queuing up to build wind farms world wide. In fact the size of industry is already well past the point where the democratic governments in the developed world can cut subsidies because to do so means increasing unemployment.
Will windpower provide enough generating capacity? Why would entrepreneurs care?
The increase in CO2 may be just what we need to save Gaia. Since global warming caused by the current level of CO2 is responsible the recent cold winters, it is obvious we need more GHGs to cause global warming to actually warm thereby returning our climate to its normal state. It’s a delicate balance.
RockyRoad says:
March 16, 2011 at 9:47 am the impact would be minimal.
Those stupid Fans don’t float, tell me a 500 mph 30ft high underwater wave miles wide would hit the base w/3 times the power as on land and not end up on shore.
I think this quote: “Environmentalists are trying to eliminate all the other alternatives, as well. All sources of energy pose some sort of risk or cost. Risk-free, cost-free energy is a complete myth and simply does not, and will not, exist. Groups that never propose realistic solutions are simply not worth taking seriously.” summarizes the Big Green organizations. There is currently no realistic alternative to today’s power production methods. Even at several times the cost, wind and solar will never provide more than 1/3 of the total. The lowest cost and safest are coal, gas, and nuclear.
Yes, I said safest, because when the emotional factor is removed, commercial nuclear power has among the safest track record of any major industry. My guess is that the Japanese (who are not technophobic as western governments are proving to be) will get the unaffected nuke plants at other locations back on line within a few months, and half of those affected by the tsunami back online within 2 years. At least two are toast, but that’s not a safety problem. Their two under construction may be delayed for a year as higher standards for earthquake and tsunami effects are incorporated.
There are currently 62 commercial nuke power plants under construction around the world, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/reactors.html and I expect the completion dates will slip as a result of mother nature throwing disasters, but only the luddite nations will back away from making tomorrow a better place to live. Remember the words of Jerry Pournelle: “You can’t conserve your way to prosperity”
And finally, I do know that B. Obama campaigned for President on a platform of raising utility rates “necessarily skyrocket” to get expensive alternative energy into the US mix. Creates Green jobs don’t ya know.
As we continue to dither and argue about what course(s) to take we are getting closer and closer to the point where the system will collapse and a man on a white horse will have to cut the Gordian knot.
Interesting times.
ShrNfr says:
March 16, 2011 at 9:50 am
Hey, can we all ride around in 40 year old cars and shut down the modern car industry if we have an accident? I am not sorry to see the old designs taken off line, nor am I sorry to see AGW pumpers succumb to to reality, but really now.
——————————
Perhaps I missed your point, but the reason we are all “driving 40 year old cars” is because the government has decreed we are not allowed to build newer, safer ones anywhere. As mentioned above, the newer generation Thorium designs sound very promising, but as soon as the word “nuclear” is mentioned, the environmentalist scream and the politicians run for cover. With the information I’ve found, it’s my opinion that it was very unfortunate that the Thorium design lost out at the time for military reasons.
Unfortunately, it is going to take a long time to address all of the mis-information out there.
Here’s hoping that the tragedy in the making at Fukushima Plant 1, will be a wake up call to politicians across the world. We need to close all Gen1 nuclear reactors as soon as possible and replace the lost capacity with coal/gas and nuclear of more modern, safer design.
No reactor can be safe from all possible black swan events, so modern multi redundant fail-safe designs are the only sensible way to go.
It keeps getting lost in the discussion that the problems at Fukushimi happened after a 9.0 earthquake, a Tsunami, and then several days of almost continuous 6.0 – 7+ Richter scale earthquakes that the plants have had problems. This in the middle of massive devastation to the surrounding infrastructure and emergency support that would normally be aiding in handling such a crisis.
The fact that the damage is this minor is a testament to just how well these things were built. There are problems but not nearly to the extent the media is hyping the problems. It should be noted that a lot of the so called ‘experts’ who are getting air time are active in the anti nuclear movement and taking advantage of this to push their view point of how dangerous nuclear is.
“Companies are queuing up to build wind farms world wide. In fact the size of industry is already well past the point where the democratic governments in the developed world can cut subsidies because to do so means increasing unemployment.”
Or rather, Companies are queuing up to get subsidies to build windfarms . . .
Increase in unemployment would be short term. Windmill subsidies cost real, long lasting employment. Subsidies take investment funds out of the hands of entrepreneurs and put it into the inefficient, politically driven as opposed to wealth creation driven politicians hands. After the shut down of the useless windmills, ex-employees would move to industries which actually provide a return on investment and other forms of energy supply would supply demand as long as draconian so called environmental regulations are removed.
As a retired engineer (albeit in a different field) one must try to look at the bright side of events. Historically, all engineering improvements have been made for one of two reasons, reducing costs or improving design as a result of accidents. Look at virtually any activity from coal mining to bridge building, from shipping to aviation, all major improvements have been as a result of disasters. We have yet to learn of the number of deaths/injuries that have been caused by failures at the nuclear plant, as distinct from those caused by the earthquake and tsunami, but I suspect that they will be quite low compared with some past disasters.
The plant has now been stress tested to an extent that would never normally have been possible. To use the hackneyed phrase “lessons will be learnt”, but as in the case of the Tay Bridge, the Titanic and the Comet disasters, the Japanese disaster should not be an end of nuclear power engineering but an impetus to produce better safer designs.
@Crispin in Waterloo,
And,
@Ian W,
Thank you gentlemen and well said indeed.
Just to add to the misery in Japan, it’s snowing in the area too!
Fortunately, Kyoto was not affected by the tsunami.
I must applaud the Germans for guarding their nuclear units against tsunamis in central Europe by shutting down seven of them and costing a few billion Euros. Way to go for being proactive! /sarc off
The official response to this situation feels a lot like last years volcanic ash hyper caution in Europe.