UPDATE: 00:00 PST 3/13/11 Japanese Met Agency has upgraded the magnitude of the quake to 9.0 — up from 8.8, their previous estimate.
UPDATE: 14:20 PST 3/11/11 Additional graphs and data added to end of post h/t Eco Tretas
UPDATE: 4:05 am PST Tsunami Warning continues for much of the US Pacific Coast and British Columbia.
UPDATE: Compared to quakes since 1900, this appears to be the sixth largest on record, see table added below from USGS data.
Tsunami Warning for the entire Pacific basin coastline including California, impact at 7:42 -8:15 AM local time e.g. San Francisco.
UPDATE: One of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded. Hawaii under Tsunami Warning. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Updates / Warning Website Link. Aftershocks continuing. Tsunami Watch issued for California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, Canada…
UPDATE: Here’s a screencap from live streaming from Japan via news helicopter showing the Tsunami as it strike s the north coast:
UPDATE: NHK TV in Japan reports Tsunami hit. Massive damage, reports below.
8.9 quake at Friday, March 11, 2011 at 05:46:00 UTC. Preliminary estimate was 7.9 and was upgraded to 8.8, now 8.9. Current details from USGS. Tsunami warning issued.
We’ll have more on this as it develops.
If you know of webcams in the area in Japan, leave a comment.
(AP) – JAPAN’S METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY NOW WARNS THAT A TSUNAMI AS HIGH AS 20 FEET (6 METERS) COULD STRIKE THE COAST NEAR MIYAGI PREFECTURE, CLOSEST TO THE EPICENTER.
WEHW40 PHEB 110557
TSUHWX
HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-110757-
/O.NEW.PHEB.TS.A.0001.110311T0557Z-000000T0000Z/
BULLETIN
TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
756 PM HST THU MAR 10 2011
TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII
SUBJECT - TSUNAMI WATCH
A TSUNAMI WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT
0756 PM HST.
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS
ORIGIN TIME - 0746 PM HST 10 MAR 2011
COORDINATES - 38.0 NORTH 142.9 EAST
LOCATION - NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU JAPAN
MAGNITUDE - 7.9 MOMENT
EVALUATION
BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A TSUNAMI MAY HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY
THIS EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD BE DESTRUCTIVE ON COASTAL AREAS EVEN
FAR FROM THE EPICENTER. AN INVESTIGATION IS UNDERWAY TO DETERMINE
IF THERE IS A TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.
IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THE ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL OF
THE FIRST TSUNAMI WAVE IS
0259 AM HST FRI 11 MAR 2011
MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
From Fox News :
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and U.S. state of Hawaii.
The quake struck at 2:46 p.m. at a depth of 10 kilometers, about 80 miles (125 kilometers) off the eastern coast, the meteorological agency said. The area is 240 miles (380 kilometers) northeast of Tokyo.
In downtown Tokyo, large buildings shook violently and workers poured into the street for safety. TV footage showed a large building on fire and bellowing smoke in the Odaiba district of Tokyo.
From CBS News:
Japanese television showed video of serious damage caused by a tsunami along the nation’s northern coast. Public broadcaster NHK showed cars, trucks, houses and buildings being swept away by the tsunami in Onahama city, Fukushima prefecture.
A tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and U.S. state of Hawaii.
There were reports that evacuations were underway along the Russian coast.
===================================================================
| Rank Location | Date | Magnitude2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Chile | May 22, 1960 | 9.5 |
| 2. | Prince William Sound, Alaska | March 28, 19643 | 9.2 |
| 3. | Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Islands | March 9, 1957 | 9.1 |
| 4. | Kamchatka | Nov. 4, 1952 | 9.0 |
| 5. | Off western coast of Sumatra, Indonesia | Dec. 26, 2004 | 9.0 |
| 6. | Off the coast of Ecuador | Jan. 31, 1906 | 8.8 |
| 7. | Offshore Maule, Chile | Feb. 27, 2010 | 8.8 |
| 8. | Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands | Feb. 4, 1965 | 8.7 |
| 9. | Northern Sumatra, Indonesia | March 28, 2005 | 8.7 |
| 10. | India-China border | Aug. 15, 1950 | 8.6 |
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=ofun
Hanasaki (almost also 4 meters max variation)
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=hana
Omaezaki
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=omae
Wake Island (little variation)
http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=wake
Guam (little variation)
Absolutely appalling pictures and reports coming out of Japan. I have a friend who lives in Shiga – well inland. This is what he said:
“When it started this afternoon. It was a gentle swaying that did not stop ! A few pictures fell over but then it just continued swaying gently and just would not stop ! It was getting scarey so Junko and I went into the garden and it was a feeling of being drunk and becoming dizzy ! It gradually lessened but as I say not for a 10 minutes or so. Then it would stop and come again, many small gentle swayings. That went on for well over an hour ! Just unbelievable, I was keeping it together , but I was shaking slightly with excitement and fear probably. I think the adrenaline was flowing ~!”
Going on for over an hour!
My thoughts are with you, Japan.
Gary says:
March 11, 2011 at 6:01 am
While watching the BBC special coverage this morning I heard one of the announcers say that low lying islands in the Pacific were in danger from the tsunami “ever more so because of rising sea levels due to global warming.”
!!!ACK!!!
I saw that too. How utterly tasteless of the BBC in the wake of this tragedy. No acknowledgement that the islands might just possibly be sinking, rather than the sea rising.
I feel so very sorry for the Japanese people affected by this tragedy..you are in my thoughts and prayers.
Best wishes to the folks in Japan. Wow, what a cluster of big ones in the late 50’s.
Anthony don’t go to the beach today 🙂
“I hope the problem reported with the nuc plant in Japan does not turn into a reason for them not to be used here.”
Report is the situation is now under control.
They should have bought one of these:
http://www.ap1000.westinghousenuclear.com/ap1000_safety_psrs.html
Passive cooling systems don’t need external power or pumps.
The CNN footage I saw of the wave coming ashore showed moving vehicles on a road trying to turn onto a street to avoid the incoming water. A few of them didn’t make it and were hit by the water. The CNN anchors made no mention of this, which I found extremely cold. Yes, report facts dispassionately, but don’t ignore what is happening right in front of your face. To those CNN blind people: those were moving vehicles you were looking at, and I know Japan is the best at robotics, but I don’t think they train their robots to run from disasters.
These modeled energy plots are always somewhat fascinating to me:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/03/11/article-1365225-0D91D4F9000005DC-437_634x757.jpg
This explains to me why the west coast of Washington through most of western Canada isn’t under a warning, the Aleutian ridge shielded them from much of the energy.
Would you believe it, BBC commentator on one of their video’s managed to metion global warming as an obvious cause!!!
DB
Gary says:
March 11, 2011 at 6:01 am
While watching the BBC special coverage this morning I heard one of the announcers say that low lying islands in the Pacific were in danger from the tsunami “ever more so because of rising sea levels due to global warming.”
Well, it’s not like they’ve got Bush to blame anymore…
“Japanese authorities ordered the precautionary evacuation of the area around a nuclear plant affected by the earthquake, saying that while there was no immediate danger, crews were having trouble cooling the reactor”
You wouldn’t need to do that with wind turbines of course.
Having trouble cooling the reactor is not the worlds most assuring statement if you live next door.
Andy
“Hundreds dead in Japanese quake-tsunami disaster
Sydney Morning Herald – Miwa Suzuki – 47 minutes ago
“We were shaken so strongly for a while that we needed to hold on to something in order not to fall,” said an official at the local government of the hardest-hit city of Kurihara in Miyagi prefecture.” http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/hundreds-dead-in-japanese-quaketsunami-disaster-20110312-1brof.html
So early reports (keeping in mind that they are often wrong) suggest that Kurihara was indeed hit hard by the earthquake. Hopes and prayers go out to them and anyone else caught up in this maelstrom.
Some musings: I click on the link on NOAA’s homepage for their tsunami warning and got a “page not found” for several minutes. If you can’t depend on them during a potential emergency, then their value is substantially diminished (IMHO).
Also, I was reading an article concerning CFLs last night. Japan if often the trend setter in technology, including CFLs. I wonder how much mercury has been released into the air and ocean from tens of thousands of CFLs breaking at the same time? It would be interesting to know if it poses any more of a threat than the other toxic stuff now being washed around the islands of Japan. Reports are that a nuclear plant and petrochemical complex are ablaze. Those may or may not create a massive problems, but you know those CFLs are history.
NASA may need to correct the orbital calculations, Earth-moon distance laser monitoring etc, since the Italian national institute for geophysics and vulcanology is reporting that the Earth axis has moved by 10 cm.
http://www.corriere.it/esteri/11_marzo_11/sisma-spostamento-asse-terrestre_5ff04ca0-4bea-11e0-b2c2-62530996aa7c.shtml
L’impatto del terremoto che ha colpito il Giappone stamattina avrebbe spostato l’asse di rotazione terrestre di quasi 10 centimetri. È il risultato preliminare di studi effettuati dall’Ingv, l’istituto nazionale di geofisica e vulcanologia.
I’ve read several comments here dissing astrometeorology, which really are ill-informed. Mundane astrologers – who are of course also astronomers – have been predicting this magnitude of natural calamity at just this moment (as Uranus passes over the Aries point – 00.0˚ Aries in conjunction with a perigree moon) for a long time.
Only yesterday the most talented of them (imo) Theo White wrote a long entry on his blog http://globalastrologyblog.blogspot.com/ which included this, and remember it was posted approx 24 hrs before yesterday’s earthquake struck:
” During the entire month of March 2011 we can expect to hear of powerful earthquakes along the ‘Ring of Fire.’
In March, look first to Asia for seismic action in the northern hemisphere – China and Japan, then to the Philippines, along to the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, to British Columbia, Canada, then to California in the United States, stretching down to Mexico and into South America.
With the global transits at hand, there are sure to be powerful, large magnitude earthquakes in the months of March and April.
My astrological calculations show a 88.9% rating for significant seismic activity between 6.6 to 7.9+ in magnitude.
There are additional planetary configuration signals I’ve interpreted that show even stronger quakes by scale – 8.9 to 9.2 in magnitude. Some people will not believe me, but transits are well within astrological red-zone warning range. ”
Remember, this was written and posted before the earthquake struck. He also wrote a long defence of astrometeorology which all of you would be well advised to read; it explains that this branch (like others) when PROPERLY studied and practiced, is a science.
Theo White has a link to WUWT on his website. He has written there often in refutation of AGW, and has detailed climate predictions for the future based on geophysical reactions to planetary movements.
Anthony would be doing the world and science a favour if he would invite Theo to write a guest post on this science. His record is impeccable in predicting weather events which both the ‘climate scientists’ and conventional meteorologists have missed entirely.
Please don’t scoff until you have done the research: Theo has, and his accuracy is awesome. Do yourselves the favour of reading him: you might learn something.
This is horrible — I hope International assistance is already in route or being delivered.
Given recent quakes in New Zealand and China, does anyone know if someone predicted the probability of a large quake in Japan?
Pacific Plate hot spots appear to be well documented and Japan intersects 2 fault lines; see the link below. It seems logical with plate movement in New Zealand countered by movement along the China fault (assuming that was the cause of the recent China quake) and the magnitude of the recent quakes that the intersection of the 2 fault lines in Japan would next.
Maybe I’m being too simplistic but I’m in Southern California and hope to never see an 8.9 quake.
The Euler pole for the Pacific Plate is just to the right and down a bit from New Zealand (South east).
http://nzphoto.tripod.com/volcano/PlateMotion.htm
“You wouldn’t need to do that with wind turbines of course. ”
You wouldn’t need to do it with a modern reactor having passive emergency cooling either.
http://www.ap1000.westinghousenuclear.com/ap1000_safety_psrs.html
“1708UTC: Nuclear physicist Dr Walt Patterson tells the BBC it sounds like there is a “serious problem” at the Fukushima-Daiichi plant. “It’s the sort of thing that nuclear engineers have nightmares about,” he says. “If it is not resolved in the next few hours it will get serious. If the core is uncovered, then those rods at the top may get hot enough to melt themselves.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12307698
Horrifying tsunami surge wave destroying town.
And so the nonsense begins:
“(Grist) — So far, today’s tsunami has mainly affected Japan — there are reports of up to 300 dead in the coastal city of Sendai — but future tsunamis could strike the U.S. and virtually any other coastal area of the world with equal or greater force, say scientists. In a little-heeded warning issued at a 2009 conference on the subject, experts outlined a range of mechanisms by which climate change could already be causing more earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic activity. . . .
Scientists have known for some time that climate change affects not just the atmosphere and the oceans but the earth’s crust, but these effects are not widely understood by the public.”
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/Latest-News/climate-change-fanatics-blame-japan-earthquakes-tsunamis-on-global-warming.html
To make matters worse, we are going to have to listen to many “experts” with no data, making statements, on nuclear power plants. Without clear information, nothing can really can be said about Japan’s nuclear situation. GK
100 aftershocks of Magnitude 5.0 or greater, and counting……..
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php
Holy Toledo!
Didn’t take too long for the BBC to link that to Global Warming…
G. Karst says:
March 11, 2011 at 9:28 am
And so the nonsense begins:
[idiots linking GW to earthquakes]
Please, let them make these inane comments. Someone should then compile these comments and their sources together to show the public how the heartless and demented CAGW crowd seeks to profit politically from the death and destruction in Japan.
Astrologers predicted this… LMAO
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1365225/Japan-earthquake-tsunami-Did-supermoon-cause-todays-natural-disaster.html
Now on ABC News (US), 12:30PM EST:
Esteemed Theoretical Physicist Michio Kaku warned of true “China Syndrome” in Japan.
Presidential news conference started (I swear Good Morning America had said 11:15. Rescheduled until after the waves hit?).
The earthquake and tsunami rated two minutes of Presidential sympathy and indicators of US Presidential Leadership In The Face Of Crisis.
Then Obama went off about gasoline prices, finishing with Green Energy (like electric cars) and all the Green Jobs created.
About 12:43, Q&A started. First Libya, on the budget right now.
Global tragedy, emergency Presidential news conference, brief mention of tragedy, followed by the stuff that people have stopped watching when it’s a scheduled conference at night.
Never let a serious crisis go to waste.
–Rahm Emanuel
As to the rest of the news conference, I shall follow the fine example of this fine President, and tune out.
Huge devestation from this earthquake, most from tsunami, but heard reports a dam burst, and a nuclear reactor is in danger as well.
I also saw that report on the pacific islands too. Couldn’t believe the poor taste the BBC showed just to hammer their agenda forward. It’s such disasters that define people by how they act. I am not surprised by anything the BBC say anymore, but that still caught me off guard.
More news from the BBC that the situation at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear plant is very serious, with the core starting to heat.
Fingers crossed that the can contain the problem and this reactor doesn’t become a long-term problem.
It is total speculation on my part, but I am wondering if there is a link between quakes Down Under and ones further north in SE Asia.
The Boxer Day 9.2 quake in 2004 was preceded by about a week by an 8.3 quake off the coast of Macquarie Island south of Tasmania. This one was preceded by the Christchurch quake.
It is probably a coincidence, but it makes one wonder. . .