On Jo Nova’s site, the cat is set amongst the pigeons:
A team of skeptical scientists, citizens, and an Australian Senator have lodged a formal request with the Australian National Audit Office (ANAO) to have the BOM and CSIRO audited.
The BOM claim their adjustments are “neutral” yet Ken Stewart showed that the trend in the raw figures for our whole continent has been adjusted up by 40%. The stakes are high. Australians could have to pay something in the order of $870 million dollars thanks to the Kyoto protocol, and the first four years of the Emissions Trading Scheme was expected to cost Australian industry (and hence Australian shareholders and consumers) nearly $50 billion dollars.
Given the stakes, the Australian people deserve to know they are getting transparent, high quality data from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). The small cost of the audit is nothing in comparison with the money at stake for all Australians. We need the full explanations of why individual stations have been adjusted repeatedly and non-randomly, and why adjustments were made decades after the measurements were taken. We need an audit of surface stations. (Are Australian stations as badly manipulated and poorly sited as the US stations? Who knows?)
The NZ equivalent to the Australian BOM is under an official review
The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition found adjustments that were even more inexplicable (0.006 degrees was adjusted up to 0.9 degrees). They decided to push legally and the response was a litany of excuses — until finally The National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) was forced to disavow it’s own National Temperature Records, and belatedly pretend that it had never been intended for public consumption. But here’s the thing that bites: NZ signed the Kyoto protocol, arguably based very much on the NZ temperature record, and their nation owes somewhere from half a billion to several billion dollars worth of carbon credits (depending on the price of carbon in 2012). Hence there is quite a direct link from the damage caused by using one unsubstantiated data set based on a single student’s report that no one can find or replicate that will cost the nation a stack of money. NIWA is now potentially open to class actions. (Ironically, the Australian BOM has the job of “ratifying” the reviewed NZ temperature record.)
Thanks to work by Ken Stewart, Chris Gillham, Andrew Barnham, Tony Cox, James Doogue, David Stockwell, as well as Cory Bernardi, Federal Senator for South Australia.
Copied below is the cover note of our request.
Click on the image to download the full PDF (3.3 Mb)
Read more here
“….why adjustments were made decades after the measurements were taken.”
Did Hansen lend them our algorerythym?
How many of the sites around the world have had the data altered? As the whole basis of anthropogenic global warming is on the increases in the tempertures from these sites surely it should be made unequivocally plain that the data are not being manipulated. But is this possible? I agree with others from Australia who have posted here, the Australian government won’t want to know. The current prime minister said just before the election in August 2010 “there will be no carbon tax in my government”. She is now endeavouring to get a carbon tax in place. Is it likely the government is going to approve an audit of the temperature data?
john daly must be smiling.
I’m surprised Kyoto is still operational. I’ll be even more surprised if so much as a dime gets paid because of it. Where would that money go, BTW? General UN funds?
Looks pretty flimsy to me.
Who is Ken Stewart? What are his qualifications? Has his work been authenticated?
I’d be shocked if there was an audit of the BOM based upon his unsupported claims that the trend in the raw figures for Australia has been adjusted up by 40%. It’s very likely that Ken has simply made an error in his calculations or not understood the methods used by the BOM.
Regardless, it won’t stop a Carbon Tax nor an Emission Trading Scheme being adopted by Australia.
The request for an audit is phony. The reasons behind the adjustments are explained by peer reviewed publications.
http://reg.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2004/dellamarta.pdf
Updating Australia’s high-quality annual temperature dataset
An updated and improved version of the Australian high-quality
annual mean temperature dataset of Torok and Nicholls
(1996) has been produced. This was achieved by undertaking a
thorough post-1993 homogeneity assessment using a number of
objective and semi-objective techniques, by matching closed
records onto continuing records, and by adding some shorter
duration records in data-sparse regions. Each record has been
re-assessed for quality on the basis of recent metadata, resulting
in many records being rejected from the dataset. In addition,
records have been re-examined for possible urban contamination
using some new approaches. This update has highlighted
the need for accurate and complete station metadata. It
has also demonstrated the value of at least two years of overlapping
observations for major site changes to ensure the
homogeneity of the climate record. A total of 133 good-quality,
homogenised records have been produced. A non-urban subset
of 99 stations provides reliable calculations of Australia’s annual
mean temperature anomalies with observation error variances
between 15 and 25 per cent of the total variance and
decorrelation length scales greater than the average inter-station
separation.
REPLY: Oh please, peer reviewed publications are not the pinnacle of truth. I (or anyone else) could write up a paper that would make it through peer review that could be totally wrong. It has happened lots of times. Peer review isn’t auditing, and it often doesn’t do much beyond have a conversation about the merits of the paper. Peer review is an unpaid profession. We get what we pay for.
I get so sick of people like you touting peer review as “truth”, when that peer review often doesn’t even bother with the job of replication. If the peer reviewers of Michael Mann’s paleo-trainwreck had bothered to do replication, climate science wouldn’t be so damaged today. In fact I doubt that Climate Audit or WUWT would even exist had such replication been done.
Pull your head out of your butt Mr. Adler, demand replication, demand the numbers add up. That’s what’s going on here. – Anthony
There you go Martin, attack the man and not the ball.
You guys have been pulling that stunt for years and it just don’t work anymore.
Martin says: February 15, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Martin, Ken Stewart is a retired school principal, but what relevance is that? If his data and analysis are accurate it really doesn’t matter what his qualifications are does it? or do you believe in scientific proof by weight of letters behind a person’s name? Perhaps your time would be better spent trying to verify or contradict his work with analysis of your own rather than sniping about credentials. “Looks pretty flimsy to me” won’t get through peer review… not even Hockey Team peer review.
You’re dreaming if you think the Greens will let Joolya’s new plan through… if she pushes the carbon price or the mining tax she is dead in the water. She cannot possibly balance the opposing factions of the Rainbow Coalition. I would guess that we will have another election in Australia before mid year… and we can get rid of these talentless gits and replace them with a different set of talentless gits… this is how politics works.
I think the official Australian temperature record is the work of Torok & Nicholls: An historical annual temperature data set for Australia (1996):
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/amtemp.shtml
They did much adjusting of the raw data apparently.
Steve McIntyre (presumably tongue in cheek): “…a variety of plausible reasons for adjusting 19th century data, pointing out, in addition to the usual problems of changing instrumentation, problems distinctive to rural Australia: thermometers being seized by dingoes, taken by crows and being smashed by angry wives…”:
http://climateaudit.org/2007/04/28/some-australian-station-plots/
Dr Simon Torok was previously External Communications Manager Tyndall Centre UEA.
He is now Communication and Marketing Manager CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research:
http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/florey/biog.htm
We will probably never know whether Dr Torok was convinced of dangerous AGW before his work on the temperature data or as a result of it.
Martin (February 15, 2011 at 8:17 pm) asks “Who is Ken Stewart?” I suggest that you do yourself a favour and visit
http://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2010/02/05/giss-manipulates-climate-data-in-mackay/
Thought some of you would be interested in an unforeseen problem with windmills in Canada. With the planet warming and all why worry about windmills freezing up.
http://www.nationalpost.com/news/Northern+Brunswick+wind+turbines+frozen+solid/4287063/story.html
If you stomp around the walls long enough they will fall down. You just have to keep it up until they fall. pg
“Les Francis says:
February 15, 2011 at 7:27 pm”
KRudd747 has just bought himself an AU$3.1mil home in Qld. I am confident he’s not too bothered about what the unwashed masses think.
“Martin says:
February 15, 2011 at 8:17 pm”
Sadly you are right. Gillrd will “put a price on carbon” but in doing so she will end whatever future the ALP and Greens have politically when people start to realise the fallacy of it all and the extortionate increases in the cost of living everyone will bear.
Martin says:
February 15, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Martin I think you’ll find that the Gillard Labor Government’s main climate change adviser Ross Garnaut is an economist (and as we all know no two economists agree on anything) while the main salesman for Gillard’s carbon dioxide tax is Tim Flannery, an old bones doctor. Now far be it from me to reflect on the qualifications of these individuals, but as we say here in Aussie, mate “fair suck of the sav”.
Congratulations to Ken Stewart and his colleagues in this effort. Keep it going guys!
Cheers
John
The temperature record and AGW may soon be taking a back seat.
Given what has happened in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Iran, Sudan, and a few other places lately, don’t be surprised if people start reacting to the stupidity of western governments, their ridiculous levels of personal and business tax; and the enormous debt that governments have burdened themselves with. Soon there will be no money for windmills and solar panels or carbon offsets as many state governments can hardly afford the interest on their debt and they continue to run annual deficits increasing their debt and devaluing their currency. Alternate currencies are popping up everywhere. The US dollar has slid about 30% against the Canadian Dollar over the last few years as US debt grew … and the Canadian dollar is pretty much tied to the US dollar due to trade. China is selling US dollars and moving to currency trade with Russia. The holding by the Chinese of US dollars peaked last year and has been dropping. Japan has reduced its corporate taxes so now the US has the highest corporate taxes in the world according to some sources.
Australia and New Zealand have similar issues. In a couple of years, it is unlikely that Green House Gases will be front page news when unemployment is 20% and people are having trouble putting food on the table. There will be people on the streets telling our politicians that it is time for them to leave office just like people have been doing in the Middle East. In fact, in cold snowy Alberta, both the Premier of the province and the leader of the opposition have announced retirement plans for this year. The public is speaking both demonstrably and quietly all around the world. The bureaucrats should pay attention. The world as we knew it is changing as we sit here typing.
“Bob in Castlemaine says:
February 15, 2011 at 9:46 pm”
You are correct. Ross Garnaut is Gillard’s climate change adviser, and you are right, he is an economist. He also released a statement recently that CO2 concentrations are “forecast” to double by 2030. Sadly, there are people in Australia who believe CO2 concentrations of 550ppm will result in temperatures 4c higher.
Australian is ‘run’ by politicians of the left wing “don’t confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up” variety, so this formal request:
1. Will expose inconvenient facts,
2. Has the potential to undermine future taxation sources,
3. Will expose unfounded green climate theories and their purveyors to further ridicule.
So consideration of the request will first be delayed and then buried under a morass bureaucratic obfuscation.
Nevertheless, nice try.
I’m not liking the political looks of the Auditor-General Ian McPhee, he might be a warmanista since he’s a wet Liberal like Malcolm Turnbull.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Macphee
With MSM exposure this might achieve something, though the media might have to be exposed first. 🙁
On 12 September 2002 the BOM became a prescribed agency under the Financial Management and Accountability Act. Under the Public Service Act, the Director of Meteorology has the powers and responsibilities of an agency head, and under current administrative arrangements reports to the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities i.e. The Hon. Tony Burke MP Australian Labor Party.
So the BOM answers to government and relies for its funding from government. Hence would you think that it tells government what it wants to hear? – Just a tiny little bit perhaps?
There is a saying in Canberra, never hold an enquiry unless you know what the results are going to be. Any “independent” audit of BOM would only therefore be with some-one like Tim Flannery being in charge of a carbon tax or Dracula let loose in the blood bank.
I’m sure you all know the truism “evil flourishes when good men do nothing”.
Rather than saying nothing can be done, fortunately many people make the effort.
I posted this on Jo Nova’s site on Feb 12 after the appointment of serial alarmist and the absolute guru of failed predictions ,Tim Flannery, was appointed as an “independent” part-time head of another pro carbon tax propaganda effort by the pre-election “no carbon tax under my government” Julia Gillard.
“This is absolutely sickening! At a time when every spare dollar is needed to rebuild homes and infrastructure damaged in recent events and facing imposition of a flood levy and then one of the most useless but costly taxes in our history, the “crying poor” Gillard Government is throwing another $4.5 million away presided over by the hapless and hopeless Tim Flannery.
With consumers struggling to keep up with power prices already inflated by inclusion of costs of so-called ‘energy greening’, this carbon tax will force more households into poverty as prices inevitably rise across the board. Worse, it will have no measurable effect in achieving its’ stated objective of ‘stopping’ climate change.
The real tragedy is that whilst billions of underprivileged people in the world lack clean drinking water, proper sanitation, health care or education, billions of $’s have been wasted by the UN and compliant governments over the last 20 years on promoting and perpetuating what history may well prove to be arguably the greatest scientific fraud ever perpetrated.
After all that wastage of money and resources, apart from hinting at such an option, not even one of the most rabid activist scientists or environmentalists is able or willing to name or claim a single climate event caused by CAGW.
Can we make Flannery’s appointment the catalyst to help stop all this nonsense once and for all? Exchanging and arguing points of view on blogs all over the world is all very well but we seem powerless against the powerful, well-funded and resourced propaganda machines (supported in the main by the MSM) brainwashing a gullible public.
I still believe there is a vast silent majority out there waiting for leadership and ready to be mobilised, but by the time the worst of the Labor/Green damage to the industry and economy becomes obvious it will be far too late! ”
I can assure all posters that the silent majority in Australia is rapidly stirring but you won’t hear of it through any of our MSM with their pathetic biased headline seekers who used to be called reporters!
Whether successful or not, the herculean efforts of Jo and her associates will be further evidence to a frustrated public that they do have a voice and that people are fighting on their behalf to prevent these abuses taking place. All power to them !!
‘Celebrity’ flash:
Lord Oxburgh and Muir Russell, both famous for their ‘independent enquiries’ into the Climategate antics at the University of East Anglia, were spotted this morning at London Heathrow T5 flying together to Australia.
This reporter noticed that they were stopped at Security and several tins of white paint were removed from their hand luggage. ‘But its a tool of my my trade and livelihood’ shouted a clearly irritated peer as they did not fit inside the little plastic bag. ‘My work in in Ashes’ squealed Russell.
The aircraft is expected to arrive in The Colonies (Sydney) tomorrow. Where, no doubt, the dynamic duo will get a rousing Oz welcome from all right-thinking sceptics.
Message ends.
Paul R 11:35 pm,
Ian McPhee is not former Liberal MP Ian Macphee.
Full marks to Ken Stewart and the battlers who are requesting the enquiry. While the Westminster Model purrs along nicely on rank, titles, privelege and custom in its native climate and has very large tanks to store the required whitewash, the Aussie climate and character can be pretty tough on imported models. I used the word ‘battler’ advisedly as New Zealand comes from similar hardy roots; the Westminster Model had to be modified significantly before it would even run in NZ (the upper house proved to be too top-heavy and was lopped off very early) and the the NZ Climate Coalition has been doing pretty well so far in the NZ courts of justice.
As a footnote, it amazes me how frequently old students of UEA pop up in key but far-flung places.
Les Francis says:
February 15, 2011 at 7:27 pm
You idjit! That’s “lose”, not “loose”. >:(
Otherwise, excellent post! |:-)