
President Obama in his recent SOTU address said that “this is our generation’s sputnik moment” referring to the need to use science and technology to develop cheaper clean energy (among other things). It seems the Chinese were listening because last week they announced a focused effort to achieve technological leadership in thorium molten salt reactors.
From EnergyFromThorium
The People’s Republic of China has initiated a research and development project in thorium molten-salt reactor technology, it was announced in the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) annual conference on Tuesday, January 25. An article in the Wenhui News followed on Wednesday (Google English translation). Chinese researchers also announced this development on the Energy from Thorium Discussion Forum.
See the Press report (Chinese) below along with partial translation:
http://whb.news365.com.cn/yw/201101/t20110126_2944856.htm
(partial google translation follows)
“Yesterday, as the Chinese Academy of Sciences started the first one of the strategic leader in science and technology projects, “the future of advanced nuclear fission energy – nuclear energy, thorium-based molten salt reactor system” project was officially launched. The scientific goal is to use 20 years or so, developed a new generation of nuclear energy systems, all the technical level reached in the trial and have all intellectual property rights.”
What is a “thorium-based molten salt reactor system”? Please see this previous WUWT post on this technology.
Currently there is no US effort to develop a thorium MSR. Readers of this blog and Charles Barton’s Nuclear Green blog know that there has been a grass-roots effort underway for over five years to change this. The formation of the Thorium Energy Alliance and the International Thorium Energy Organization have been other attempted to convince governmental and industrial leaders to carefully consider the potential of thorium in a liquid-fluoride reactor. There have been many international participants in the TEA and IThEO conferences, but none from China.
Will the US accept the challenge or allow the Chinese to dominate advanced nuclear technology too? Using a technology invented in the US 40 years ago no less!
This isn’t a “Sputnik moment” Mr. President, it’s a “shit or get off the pot” moment for US energy policy. The US excelled at the space race, partly because of the swift kick in the pants that Sputnik provided. Perhaps this announcement will be the embarrassment like Sputnik for the US government that will compel them to finally do something about our energy future besides tilt at windmills.
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Thanks to Charles Hart for the tip and info gathering.
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It would seem the US is only interested in “Green” perpetual motion Energy, thusly tilting at the windmills in bliss.
A “Sputnik moment” indeed! That was when another country scared the living hell out of us by doing something really cool. The Russians poor design of warheads (larger and heavier) were the accidental source of their more powerful rockets. Necessity is truly the mother of invention.
So here we have a country requiring massive amounts of energy that they can control and what do they go for? LiFTR tech. Well done China.
Get off the pot. How true but it makes me wonder which “pot” the administration is on? The one you sit on or the one you smoke? Maybe they are on both! That would explain a lot.
History repeats itself, Japan in the 50’s and 60’s was cast as the copy cat low quality manufacturer that could only copy and never innovate, now look at Japans reputation for quality and engineering skill. Where Japan have been the Chinese will follow, only difference will be their Govt will take a more active role in deciding where they will focus on instead of leaving it to the free market.
Dave Springer:
You have persisted with your (deliberately ?) ignorant trolling of this thread despite my request that you desist.
Now you have the gall to write to me at January 31, 2011 at 3:28 am saying:
“ Your ignorance is saddening.
“Biomass” includes, among other things, ethanol generation from agricultural waste products. That and other means of processing waste into useable fuels are infant technology. Read up on it then maybe you can keep your foot out of your mouth in the future.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomass#Biomass_conversion_process_to_useful_energy
If you have an attention span longer than 5 minutes, which is a matter of great doubt at this point, try to read the whole article.”
No, I have no intention to waste my time reading some wiki article.
Instead, I suggest that you read these items by me:
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/courtney_082006.pdf
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/biofuel_issues.html
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/reprint/richard_courtney_2006_lecture.html
The first link is to an analysis of the potential for biofuels that I published in August 2006 prior to the USA legislating to enforce displacement of crude oil products by biofuels.
The second link is to is an analysis I published in December 2008 that analysed the outcome of the predictions I had made in that 2006 paper. The synopsis of that 2008 analysis says:
“This paper reviews effects of large use of biofuels that I predicted in a paper published in August 2006 prior to the USA legislating to enforce displacement of crude oil products by biofuels. The review indicates that policies (such as that in the EU), subsidies and legislation (such as that in the USA) to promote use of biofuels should be discontinued. The use of biofuels is causing significant problems but providing no benefits except to farmers. Biofuel usage is a hidden subsidy to farmers, and if this subsidy is the intended purpose of biofuel usage then more direct subsidies would be more efficient. But the problems of biofuel usage are serious. Biofuel usage is
• damaging energy security,
• reducing biodiversity,
• inducing excessively high food prices, and
• inducing excessively high fuel prices, while
• providing negligible reduction to greenhouse gas emissions.
All these effects were predicted in my paper on the use of biofuels that was published in August 2006 and can be seen at
http://ff.org/centers/csspp/pdf/courtney_082006.pdf
My 2006 paper also predicted objections from environmentalists if large use of biofuels were adopted although this then seemed implausible because many environmentalists were campaigning for biofuels to displace fossil fuels. But this prediction has also proved to be correct.”
The third link is to an Annual Prestigious Lecture that I had the honour to provide in 2006. It Section 14 (starting on page 13) provides an overview of the viability of all existing and potential ‘renewables’.
Please feel free to continue your trolling after you have read and digested all three documents. But, until then, stop wasting space on this thread.
Richard
Richard S Courtney says:
January 31, 2011 at 3:28 am
Thank you.
I think from the physics, its abundance and its potential it deserves to have a serious research program, even a test plant. Its deserves this as much, if not more than solar, wind, algae and bio mass. I think we have capabilities and technologies today that did not exist in the 60s. The realization of cheap energy for a millennium would be Obama’s greatest legacy. Lets see how much vision the guy has.
There are three reactor designs who can use thorium, which are in an very advanced state of development.
-CANDU 6
A heavy water reactor of which a dozen have been build around the world. This can operate on thorium, but not very efficient. It can also be used in a dupic fuel cycle. Here the used nuclear fuel out of a normal light water reator is used in the CANDU reactor. For the US this is a interesting option.
-ACR1000( advanced CANDU reactor)
The Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) has finished Phase 3 of the Pre-Project Design Review of this reactor.
http://nuclearstreet.com/nuclear_power_industry_news/b/nuclear_power_news/archive/2011/01/31/acel-reaches-design-review-milestone-for-the-advanced-candu-reactor-acr_2d00_1000-013103.aspx
It has the same options as the normal CANDU reactor. It should be less costly to build such a reactor.
– PBMR (pebble bed modular reactor)
This reactor was developed out of the THTR-300 which was especially designed for using thorium.
The development of the molten salt reactor costs at least a decade.
Nuclear Progress: All at Sea
http://theresilientearth.com/?q=content/nuclear-progress-all-sea
Well I already had my own personal Sputnik moment; either sputt-nick; or spoot-neek, as you wish; way back in 1957.
Using an ordinary communications short wave receiver (at 20 Megacycles), and a stop watch; along with some ionospheric prediction tables; we managed to guess about where the orbit was, just by listening to it when it was above the radio horizon.
So when the Auckland Star reporter called at lunchtime to the Radio-Physics Department; to ask, when people could go outside and see the satellite, stupid me- just blurted; go out at 8 PM tonight and look up and it will go overhead.
OOOoops !! really bad move; the early evening edition of the star said on the front page, that “The radio-Physics Department ” had predicted that Sputnik, would go ovehead at 8:00 PM tonight (that night).
Well tens of thousands of people drove up to the top of nearly all of Auckland’s 60 volcanoes to watch. Not me, I was off to bed for a good night’s sleep after listening to that blasted beep for two days.
So I had to go out the next night to see it for the first time. As for the previous night; well it went dead center straight over the city at 8:00 PM. I don’t think I’ve been right on anything ever since; but I never talk to reporters any more either.
Johanna 2011 AD : “Underestimating your opponent is rarely a winning strategy.”
Sun Tzu ~300 BC : ““Never underestimate your opponent.”“
JohnH says:
January 31, 2011 at 10:42 am
“History repeats itself, Japan in the 50′s and 60′s was cast as the copy cat low quality manufacturer that could only copy and never innovate, now look at Japans reputation for quality and engineering skill. ”
Some posts here reminds me of the japanese invasion of Singapore.
The british general and most of the leading Brits was not afraid of the Japanese because, they said, the Japanese had bad eyesight. Look at the glasses they are using, they said.
In the mean time the Japanese bicycled into Singapore via the back-door. So much for bad eyesight. It is funny how a myth can be taken as a fact by the ruling classes.
At the same time as some say they cannot “be inventive”, “they can only copy” and all that. Let me tell you, that can be turned around very quickly. As the japanese did.
Dont you worry about that.
And, additionally to all this, some here seem to think that the U.S. should have some kind of monopoly on having a high-tech industry, to be a leader of the world, to be number one, and so on.
Well, I think that time has passed. It was nice as long as it lasted, but, you know, the world moves on.
Why be so afraid of getting a developed friendly China filled up with techno-freaks and mobile phone lovers? With a free marked? Instead of a gang of Pol-Pot’ers? (There are a couple of Pol-Pot’ers in Washington now.)
As you all know Milton Friedman went to Chile well aware of that a dictatorship has a hard time surviving a free marked.
It seems to me the leadership of China nowaday is slowly introducing free markeds in a steadily growing area in China. We should welcome that, I think. I think this will result in a more and more democratic China. A China that prefers to do trade with its neighbours, instead of war. They have seen that this brings much more prosperity than commanding millions around with spades in the countryside.
The talk about intellectual ownership (or whatever) reminds me of the jet-liner “Comet”. The British shared all the technology from the Comet project with the Americans. When the Brits asked for something back from the americans, the answer was; “Sorry,its classified”. And then came the Boeing.
Hey, remember the hype about fast breeder reactors in the 1960s? Well here we are 50 years later and even the country that has pursued them most assiduously, Japan, is still saying it is years away from a viable commercial reactor.
Likewise the thorium reactor has been around as an idea for roughly the same time, yet it is even further from any chance of commercial viability.
So perhaps we should concentrate on more immediate problems. And I haven’t even mentioned the nuclear weapon proliferation problems associated with both types of reactor:-)
Not that I am a fan of “authority,” Richard, but certainly the phrase “ignorant” does not apply to you w.r.t. biofuels, eh? Hence my point above regarding irony, and, more importantly, the benefit of education even for those that think they are already educated. You never know what you might not know.
Mark
Richard S Courtney says:
January 31, 2011 at 10:47 am
“The use of biofuels is causing significant problems but providing no benefits except to farmers.”
Exactly, Richard, and that is why politicians in the EU *love* it. It solves our problem of overproduction and keeps the farmers happy by rising the prizes. Happy farmers – more votes.
This could in part also explain the fact that they love subsidizing wind and solar; as there are many owners of small solar installations and owners of wind park funds, the subsidies make many possible voters happy.
FTA: “The scientific goal is to use 20 years or so, developed a new generation of nuclear energy systems, all the technical level reached in the trial and have all intellectual property rights.”
So they will respect IP rights when it is their ideas? Lets just steal it from them like they steal our DVD’s.
Dave Springer says:
January 31, 2011 at 8:28 am
And I thought ‘biomass energy’ was a fancy new name for wood burning…
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHs2Ugxo7-8&w=300&h=255]
@Dave Springer
The wackos will put the brakes on any biofuels technology that involves genetically modified anything.
They are already putting the brakes on new technologies for getting at naturnal gas.
True. Nuclear is 20% more expensive than coal and 50% more expensive than gas at this moment. However, I’m still paying a fuel adjustment premium from the last natural gas spike that I wouldn’t be paying now if my utility wasn’t ONLY 30% nuclear. Even without any GHG worries, my utility is under EPA mandate to spend more than the cost of two new reactors to bring its fleet of coal plants into compliance with best-available technology mandates and it’s been a while since anybody in the SE US got a significant coal plant permitted.
My take is natural gas will be the feedstock for transportation fuels, not some hoped for biofuels breakthrough.
Jeremy says:
January 31, 2011 at 10:18 am
eadler says:
January 31, 2011 at 6:41 am
I don’t see the justification for Obama bashing with respect to nuclear power. One of the first acts of his administration was to launch a loan guarantee program for nuclear power reactors.
That was lip service. The bashing is fully justified because while Obama did do those loan guarantees, they are meaningless because the problem with Nuclear in America is that no one wants the waste stored anywhere near them. The solution was Yucca Mountain. Obama Killed the Yucca mountain project just before it was set to open. With no national storage area for the waste to make sure that NIMBY doesn’t kill a project, those loan guarantees are meaningless. Any local government will block a nuke plant because the locals will thoroughly oppose the storage of nuclear waste near their homes. This isn’t new to Obama or any administration, pay lip service while backstabbing those projects your allies dislike.
So yes, bashing Obama for his failure to encourage nuclear power is fully justified. In fact he is helping to kill off nuclear in this country.
A lot of people want to praise Obama for his human spaceflight funding too. The problem is this, The shuttle is due to retire this year. There is no replacement. Obama killed off the Orion project (as bloated a piece of federal pork as it may have been), and has offered no replacement. As of next year, the United States, unlike China and Russia, will have no manned spaceflight. Now some praise this and say, “well NASA is a bloated federal agency, not the nimble organization of motivated nerds it once was.” And they are correct to state this. However, NASA occupies less than 1% of the federal budget and its endgame represents the future of humanity. When was the last time any rational responsible parent spent less than 1% on their children’s future?
Obama = Just another politician, spineless in the face of requested political favors.
It seems that your opinion is uninformed.
Yucca Mountain was not a slam dunk as a safe site to store nuclear waste.
The coup de grace was a previously undiscovered fault line in 2007 which bisects the storage facility. None of the research on the safety of Yucca Mt. considered the fault.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/sep/25/usa
In 2001 China joined the WTA (world trade association). This organisation has rules for preventing expropriation of intellectual property. China was allowed to opt out of these rules. They now routinely require “sharing of technology” as part of big contracts within China. This is why motorcycles copied from Kawasaki are now being manufactured in increasing numbers in China. A few years ago they obtained the detailed designs of a Japanese high speed train (dont remember the company). Now they have surprised everyone by making their own train which goes significantly faster than the Japanese train. The Japanese company in question have placed a moratorium on further big deals with China – but the “horse has already bolted”. In further pursuance of this policy, when Airbus signed a large contract to supply airliners a few years ago, they handed over to the Chinese what is essentially their crown jewels – the design of the Airbus wing which is uniquely efficient. Now China is busy creating airliners which will soon rival Airbus and Boeing, at first in the small-medium single-aisle category.
Thus complacency about China’s ability to implement Thorium or any other kind of nuclear reactor is not well justified.
This all shouldn’t necessarily be seen as a threat, just a reality to get used to. The analogy of Japan in the 60’s is indeed apt.
DaveS says:
January 31, 2011 at 12:58 pm
“I think from the physics, its abundance and its potential it deserves to have a serious research program, even a test plant. Its deserves this as much, if not more than solar, wind, algae and bio mass. I think we have capabilities and technologies today that did not exist in the 60s. The realization of cheap energy for a millennium would be Obama’s greatest legacy. Lets see how much vision the guy has.”
Oak Ridge National Laboratory designed a 7.5 megawatt LFTR research reactor and operated it from 1964-1969. It simply didn’t win the competition for which reactor designs were chosen for commercial use. The main interest in it was for use in nuclear powered bombers as it had the greatest power-to-weight ratio of anything else. A different design was chosen for nuclear-powered submarines which have an infinite supply of cooling water and lesser restrictions on reactor weight. LFTR is old hat for the United States but only for the United States as the ORNL reactor is the only LFTR reactor ever built. The putative reason given by overly excited LFTR pundits why LFTR never went anywhere is that LFTR doesn’t produce as much plutonium (read fissile material for nuclear weapons) as the winning designs.
On the other hand, in military technology all is not necesarily as it seems:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12321492
Dave Springer says:
January 31, 2011 at 4:55 pm
“Oak Ridge National Laboratory designed a 7.5 megawatt LFTR research reactor and operated it from 1964-1969. It simply didn’t win the competition for which reactor designs were chosen for commercial use. The main interest in it was for use in nuclear powered bombers as it had the greatest power-to-weight ratio of anything else. A different design was chosen for nuclear-powered submarines …..”
The submarine LWR designs were already in-service by the time LFTRs were prototyped. The commercial reactors used the LWR proven military technology because it was the low risk approach (and because it produced a lot of plutonium, desirable at the time by the military). This was in-spite of the fact that LFTR was an inherently safer technology (no fuel rods to melt and no high pressure water to burst). Safety was not given the same priority in the 60s as it is today. Today’s reactors are very safe but the safety has been “bolted on” at great expense. The biggest problem with LWR nuclear today is cost. LFTRs significant cost advantage (competitive with coal) is one of it’s strongest advantages.
http://energyfromthorium.com/timeline/
As an aside, I don’t know if anyone involved in LFTRs has pursued all of the design versatility a liquid fuel offers. All of the designs I’ve seen have been reactors with a constant volume and constant geometry, though allowing the fuel to drain out into a different vessel. But there are other clever things you can do to change the distribution of a liquid fuel to control reaction rates.
For example, instead of draining your fuel into another tank, put your liquid fuel in the bottom of a tall containment cylinder and have a solid rod of slightly small diameter suspended from above. To shut the reactor down just drop the rod, forcing the fuel up into the space between the rod and the containment cylinder, reconfiguring the geometry of the fuel into a thin cylinder, just like shoving stackable drinking glasses together.
Or make a reactor shaped like a mercury thermometer. In the upright (dynamically unstable) position, the fuel is down in the bulb. Tip it over and the fuel runs into the pipe, shutting down the reaction.
Or make a reactor shaped like an egg or a cow horn fractionally filled with fuel. Point down concentrates the fuel, tipping it over spreads the fuel out.
There are so many options to explore.
Richard S Courtney says:
January 31, 2011 at 10:47 am
Who died and left you the authority to determine who can say what on this thread?
I quite agree that ethanol from corn is a non-starter. In fact you can search uncommondescent.com back a few years ago when I was writing articles for it and I also predicted the same things you did. It was painfully obvious. Corn has too much value as a food crop to divert for ethanol and the process of converting corn starch to alcohol is inefficient – it’s basically just a scaled-up moonshine operation . We appear to be talking across each other. I’m not disagreeing with you about about current biofuel production and you’re just not moving beyond that to what I’m actually talking about.
Biofuel is going to come from genetically engineered organisms designed for the sole purpose of producing liquid and gas fuels with very little interference directly from sunlight, water, air, and nutrients. No such organisms exist in nature because there’s no survival value in it – no selection pressure for evolution to produce such organisms. The organisms being used now produce only small quantities of what we want and they produce it as a metabolic byproduct. When we take what nature has produced as a starting point and mix/match (genetic cut & paste) metabolic function so those byproducts become the primary metabolic product the result will be virtually free fuel that can seamlessly replace all existing fossil fuels. GM organisms don’t have to survive in the wild competing against other organisms because we supply them with a suitable environment while excluding their competitors in various ways so the GM organisms can happily devote all their metabolic resources to producing biofuel for our use whereas in the wild they’d die out fast because they’re devoting all their energy to producing something totally useless to their own survival.
Let’s look at fungi for an example. There are fungi which can digest ligneous (woody) plant matter and produce carbohydrates as a primary metabolic product. These are primarily mushrooms and other colonial fungi that grow on wood or woody soil detritus. There are different fungi, primarily yeasts, which can digest carbohydrates and under anerobic conditions produce ethanol as metabolic byproduct. There is no fundamental reason why synthetic biology can’t produce an organism that digests ligneous materials to produce carbohydrates then proceed to produce ethanol from the carbohydrates. That would be one great leap in biofuel production technology. But it doesn’t stop there. There’s no fundamental reason why the same organism can’t be made to skip the need for ligneous feedstock and simply go straight from sunlight, air, water, and nutrients straight to biofuel as a primary product of metabolism. All these capabilities are extant in nature today but they aren’t all incorporated into any single organism because there’s no evolutionary pressure to produce such an organism. But as our capabilities in synthetic biology grows we will eventually be able to build an organism that does exactly that for us. This will mark the beginning of the next great technological revolution. Just the beginning. The engineering oppotunities represented by custom designed microorganisms building macroscopic things with molecular precision are mind boggling.
The advances being made in synthetic biology are proceeding at a pace that reminds me of Moore’s Law for semiconductors. Just ten years ago it cost the US goverment a billion dollars to fully sequence the first human genome (Francis Collins led the effort). At the same time a private individual, Craig Venter, produced a full human genome sequence for $200 million with a proprietary technology call shotgun sequencing. Today a human genome can be sequenced for $10,000 and there’s an X-prize waiting for the first company to do it for $1000 dollars. Meanwhile Venter hasn’t been sitting still. Venter circumnavigated the global ocean taking samples of microorganisms from various depths and he had the vessel equipped with a shotgun sequencing lab and he built a gene library containing millions of unique genes found in the microrganism survey – sequencing them right on the ship literally going from water sample container to genetic sequencing machine. Back on the farm the Venter Institute a few years ago became the first (and only) lab to produce an artificial organism. Venter took the simplest complete genome known (microplasm genitalium, a human gut bacteria IIRC) and stripped it down until there was nothing left but what was absolutely required for basic metabolic and reproductive function. He then took that minimal artificial genome sequence and built it up from mail-order DNA snippets perfecting the process of producing an error-free DNA molecule with tens of thousands and base pairs and hundreds of gene sequences all using a sequence map in a computer database feeding into a gene splicing machine. Then he tested it by gutting a different species of bacteria (removing its native DNA) and inserting his artificially produced genome in the empty shell. The new bacteria, with an artificially produced synthetic genome, came to life and grew out in a culture plate to become the first synthetic organism in the world.
Venter’s first stretch goal, all along, has been to produce a synthetic organism that produces biofuel and with the gene library he has it won’t be long before he’s figured out how to make bacteria build all the things that natural organisms can build only do it under program control. There’s no fundamental reason why a wooden house has be constructed from milled lumber when in principle you can program a hoard of bacteria to make the wood on-site in the form of the house. Various other organisms produce all kinds of structures from materials like calcium, transparent proteins, and just about everything you’d need for a livable dwelling directly from materials on-site and all of it powered by the sun. Nature served up these biological capabilities to us on a silver platter. The only thing we have to do is reverse engineer what nature produced and modify it for our own purposes. This is the future and it is approaching at an accelerating rate as synthetic biology emerges from its infancy. Meanwhile someone is going to waste their time and money on obsolete bulk construction technologies like nuclear power plants and about the time they get the next generation up and running the Venter Institute (or someone else) is going to announce a synthetic organism that produces refined liquid and gaseous fuels at such a low cost that nuclear power generation has no remote chance of being able to compete in cost.