From the Independent, March 20th, 2000:
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
According to reports I’ve read, that is the Independent’s most viewed story of the past 10 years. It has become the modern equivalent of the famous “Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus“.
Now, for the second year in a row, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, Scotland, and Wales is covered with snow. Meanwhile, AGW proponents like George Monbiot are furiously spinning to make it look like AGW causes more snow, rather than less, as the CRU scientist said 10 years ago.
(Update) WUWT commenter Murray Grainger writes:
The very same Independent has already published the rebuttal:
Expect more extreme winters thanks to global warming, say scientists
It isn’t working. Give it up kids.
I was alerted in Tips and Notes to this image from sat24.com by WUWT reader Joel Heinrich, but found an even better one from the Aqua satellite. See below.
Here is the image from the AQUA satellite, as you can see, except for a small part in the Southwest, snow is everywhere.
Click image to enlarge.
The image above has been cropped and annotated. Original source here
See last year’s image here
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I enjoyed the “Yes Virginia” article, and how fitting it is.
“Not believe in Global Warming! You might as well not believe in fairies! You might get your papa to hire men to watch all the weather radars on Christmas Eve to catch Global Warming, but even if they did not see Global warming on the radars, what would that prove? Nobody sees Global warming, but that is no sign that there is no Global Warming. The most real things in the world are those that neither children nor men can see. Did you ever see fairies dancing on the lawn? Of course not, but that’s no proof that they are not there. Nobody can conceive or imagine all the wonders there are unseen and unseeable in the world.”
That’s it then, Global Warming exists just like Santa.
p.s. It’s 4:20am Christmas day here in Brisbane. Still no sign of Santa. I musta bin a bad bad boy.
Merry Christmas to all and I hope you all have a happy and healthy new year.
Merry Christmas to The UK! Maybe Gore did a flyover in his private jet.
Matter of Priorities
http://eureferendum.blogspot.com/2010/12/matter-of-priorities.html
Here is an Off Topic (OT) but perfectly illustrative joke.
A business needs to hire an accountant.
The first applicant is asked “How much is 2 + 2?”
“4” comes the answer.
The next applicant is asked “How much is 2 + 2?”
“What do you want it to be?”
Science should not be in the shambles it is now. These charlatans that call themselves climatologists have through their machinations, provided the “what do you want it to be” answer to the environmentalists who have joined forces with the one-world government crowd to achieve their joint goals.
I saw in another blog where it was asserted that “scientific integrity” has become an oxymoron. We scientists must fight the “what do you want it to be” perversion of science.
Do they mean this extreme,
http://i446.photobucket.com/albums/qq187/bobclive/1947winter.gif
Has anyone watched The unforgettable Spike on UK ITV, there is one hilarious ten second sketch with Spike pretending to be a MET OFFICE weatherman, it says it all.
Merry Christmas to everyone around the world…. from a cold but sunny UK.
The current estimated mean Central England Temperature (CET) for December so far is minus 0.7 celsius (up to 23 December). I think that’s about 30.9F. This would make it the second coldest December in the CET series that goes back to 1659! However, we we are promised some milder Atlantic air after Christmas this month so the outturn figure may be a little higher, but I suspect this month will still end up the coldest December in Central England since 1890 (which had a mean temperature of minus 0.8C). In all only six CET Decembers since 1659 have previously had a mean below 0C/32F – of which three were in the Victorian ‘Dickensian’ period!
By the way I think the slightly greyer tone on the satellite photo may just represent thinner snow in East Central England. For example in parts of central Yorkshire the snow is pretty thin, but we are surrounded to north, east, south and west by areas that have had considerable snow in the last week
Paul Coppin asks :-
“So why is David Viner still employed as a “senior research scientist” at CRU since the only applicable part of his title may be “senior”?”
Apparently Viner has now got a cushy number at the British Council in charge of promoting climate change! Nice work if you can get it.
They evacuate Charles De Gaulle airport in Paris because of too much snow on the roof.
A very distinct change has occurred over the past few years in how the average person sees the climate debate.
Even in my work, which is for a government environmental agency, only a few die hards still try to push the official line. Most just don’t want to talk about it.
Those outside of work, with very few exceptions (usually progressive ideologues), say they don’t believe a word of the official line and see climate as a natural process.
With this change in the popular perception of climate, I cannot see how western governments can continue for much longer on their current campaign of throwing ever larger amounts of money at a problem that most see as a waste of money.
In the US even prominent Democrats are balking (such as West Virginia’s Senators) at the EPA’s heavy handed regulatory approach to CO2.
I suspect we will see a reversal of course beginning in the new year. This will be accompanied by wails from the green left, but with the American people (and even labor left) turning away, the wails will be muted.
I don’t think it is time yet to put down our guard, but the momentum appears to have genuinely shifted. It is time to start becoming more optimistic.
Damn shame though that our economy has been so damaged by this madness.
Looking forward to a nice Chinook here in Calgary for Christmas….(snow eater)
Phillip Bratby says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:07 am
It’s very unusual for Ireland to be mostly covered in the white stuff.
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Bl**dy hell Phil, that’s what I was going to say!
latitude says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:16 am
Isn’t this the second time in the same year too?
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Yes it is! It’s like all my Christmases have come at once! I like to snowkite and I’ve had three sessions within 15mins walk of where I live (east coast Scotland) at an elevation of only 100m, in the first month of winter. I was able to ski back to my abode on each occasion.
Unprecedented!
Potsdam Climate Institute now says to expect warmer colder winters
http://notrickszone.com/2010/12/23/potsdam-climate-instutute-now-says-to-expect-warmer-colder-winters/
It’s remarkable how the media and climate institutes all sing the same “new” looney tune if circumstances defeat their previous mantra’s, isn’t it?
But please don’t think it’s a conspiracy.
It’s a consensus based on the best available scientific standards, think of it as the “Gold Standard of Science.
Beng, I don’t think there actually is a whole lot of industry left in Sheffield and Leeds. Most of it has gone to India and China by now.
I think they just missed the snow this time around. During the first burst, last week in November, I know from a friend there they got around 15in of level white stuff.
For the record I’m in Lower Normandy, France, we’ve had about a foot during the last week. That’s after 2 1/2 feet last winter. OK, my house is at around 600ft, but that’s silly numbers for this part of the world.
Happy Christmas to all here, especially Anthony – and enjoy your break, you deserve it!
The fearless crew of the might HMS CRU has spotted an iceberg dead ahead, thwarting thier hallowed prediction of snowless winters. Emergency stop, full reverse, and like the Titanic, the propellers caviate and do nothing. Likewise the steering rudder is useless in the foam.
The doomed ship is history and so is the reputation of the predictors.
Thier words cavitate in a swirling mess of froth.
Snow has a way of muting a lot of noise, does it not?
So models indicate that due to anthropogenic CO2, winters will be warmer and snow a rare event. Models also show that due to anthropogenic CO2, winters will be colder and snow more profuse.
There is no question about it – if we hadn’t had three cold winters there certainly wouldn’t be any models showing colder and snowier winters – that would have been suppressed at peer review as ‘wrong’, and would not have seen the light of day in the press as it would not have chimed in with the propaganda and the groupthink.
But now the models have to be revised to account for the facts, which otherwise are looking like an episode that should only happen every 10,000 years or so under the traditional modelling (upon which IPCC AR4 and UKCP08 were based).
This report referenced in the Independent states that global warming will win out in the end, but it could get a lot colder for a few decades. Oh, how convenient that a new revised model comes to the rescue just when the existing ones are discredited. So now we are expected to reserve judgment on these new models until 2050 or so – just as we were saying the last rites over the current models, we are now expected to believe that we have to wait another 40 years or so to see whether global warming will win out.
This is simply the religion of charlatans. When cults predict an apocalyptic event on a certain date and it doesn’t happen, they revise the date – the explanation: they made a numerical mistake or didn’t read things quite right. Alternatively, they become like the Delphic oracle, where they pronounce the future but you can never be quite sure the meaning of it. We now have a priesthood of cultists posing as scientists scrabbling around trying to keep us believing in their religion now that it has been falsified. And falsified it has. In 2008 when they compiled UKCP08 the Met Office would have given odds on a string of three severe winters in a row as 1-in-8000, i.e. a once-in-8000 years event. That this episode occured six months later takes it (IMO) into the realm of ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ that their models are fatally flawed. They keep on lobbying that they need better supercomputing capabilities and that they are under-resourced in software engineering, but improvements in these will not get them a right answer, only the wrong answer quicker.
And how insignificant a snow covered UK and Ireland is when you look at the total picture:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/prvsnow.gif
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif?session-id=05e4790d63175d4111bff4b15e7adc2f
We’ll have a record number of people celebrating a “White Christmas” this year, the hottest on record according to James Hanson & Co.
Claude Harvey says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:42 am
Being wrong about most everything carries no penalty in a world where mainstream media assists in reinventing reality. In a world where folks will substitute a media account for what they can see outside their own windows, “truth-telling” is a lonely and impoverished profession.
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Wow. Well said.
TheTempestSpark says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:55 am
When I ask an AGW disciple where they would like to reverse climate change to it is difficult to get an answer. I usually suggest the MWP as being suitable, then add “it was warmer then than now in the UK you know”. That’s usually met with silence or denial. It’s a simple pleasure but amuses me!
So we’re all going to have ‘warmer-colder-winters’?
My Head Hurts!! Reckon I need a drink.
Off to stuff the turkey…..
Happy Christmas everyone, and a Good (colder-warmer?) New Year.
“a very rare and exciting event”
So far it is. Since 2000 it has snowed very rarely, while the last 3 winters are exceptions (actually I am not so sure about the first of those 3 I recall it only snowing for a week or so), we have seen hardly any snow in the UK since 2000.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” is obviously a generalization. Children will of course know what snow is from those “very rare and exciting events” (not to mention TV).
His point is a general prediction that snow will become rarer in the UK as it warms.
The topical nature of the cold in the UK now means that the media are looking for explanations, so out come these lesser accepted theories that the UK will start getting colder winters because of sea ice decline, gulf stream shutdown, etc.
These theories of what will happen to UK winters are only coupled to manmade global warming in one direction. They are different researchers predicting what will happen to UK winters under manmade global warming. If any particular one is wrong that doesn’t falsify manmade global warming. The fact that a number of contradictory theories for UK winters exist based on manmade global warming shows that manmade global warming doesn’t hinge on any particular response by UK winters.
Mate in U.K emailed me this
“I’m in North of England and it has been snowing heavily for three days now.
The wife has done absolutely nothing but stare through the window.
If it doesn’t stop soon, i guess i’ll probably have to let her in.”
Stephen Skinner says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:56 am
Is that really how high pressure systems are formed?
There are local winds and pressure systems that seem to form in this manner, for example
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_breeze
The “blocking” High that is the foundation of the current weather pattern is part of a northern hemisphere system wherein the air is descending from a high elevation. Lack of ice on the Barents and Kara seas might play a role in location – not the cause of – this High Pressure. Perhaps I’m imputing too much to the adiabatic warming caused by this descending air but I think the warmer then average temps west of Iceland result from this High. Northern Europe’s colder than average temp is a by-product of this. Meteorologists think the pattern is about to break down. Europe will get warmer. Oregon, WA, & B.C. will get a storm and then colder – in about a week.
ScientistsForTheTruth:
“So models indicate that due to anthropogenic CO2, winters will be warmer and snow a rare event. Models also show that due to anthropogenic CO2, winters will be colder and snow more profuse.”
Yes that’s it, and while it contradicts that’s to be expected of uncertainty in this area. It’s not obvious that either result is wrong. The latter study has focused on the response to sea ice decline. It was submitted before winter 2009, so didn’t take into account the cold winters of 2009 and 2010:
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009JD013568.shtml
The reason this theory gets focus now is because the subject of cold winters is currently topical. The paper isn’t directly stating that man-made global warming causes cold winters in the northern hemisphere, but that they find sea ice decline results in cold winters in the northern hemisphere. But logically of course man-made global warming is expected to result in arctic sea ice decline so…
The mainstream theory is still that a warming world will see warmer winters in the UK though. These side theories (like the solar minimum – jetstream one and the gulf stream fresh water shutdown one) are fringe ideas and not widely accepted. They do all represent possibilities though, and therein lies the risk of climate change.
“These theories of what will happen to UK winters are only coupled to manmade global warming in one direction. They are different researchers predicting what will happen to UK winters under manmade global warming. If any particular one is wrong that doesn’t falsify manmade global warming. The fact that a number of contradictory theories for UK winters exist based on manmade global warming shows that manmade global warming doesn’t hinge on any particular response by UK winters.”
What it shows is that the theory of man-made global warming isn’t ready for prime time. If the theory can “predict” mutually contradictory outcomes, without anyone knowing which one is “true”, then it’s nowhere near as “robust” as it claimed to be so widely and so often. And it’s certainly not well-founded enough to justify expending trillions of dollars to fix a problem that can’t even be conclusively defined. And if any number of mutually contradictory outcomes are possible, then it will also be impossible to judge if any potential fix has worked. Until it is ready for prime time, it should stay out of the political arena and remain in the labs and ivory towers of academia, where researchers can do little damage while arguing how many angels can fit on the head of a pin. When they’ve decided that, then it will be time to involve the politicians and the public. But not before.
TheTempestSpark says:
December 24, 2010 at 9:55 am
What is going on? am I losing my freaking mind?
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Well, no you’re not. This is just a necesary phase you have to go though after you realise all that you are told by the mainstream media is BS. And that applies whichever subject it is they are talking about.
After this phase you begin to expect this outcome, learn to look at things (media presentation) differently and – most importantly of all – learn to do your own internet-based research on all matters that impinge on any aspect of the well-being of your self/family/community. In short: you learn not to trust the lying media scumbags.
Journalists? My arse.