[posted by autoscheduler] I’ll be offline and out of town for medical issues most of today and tomorrow, but may check in via my cellphone. If you have story ideas, news, etc be sure to flag the comment for a moderator’s attention. Moderators, feel free to post stories of interest. – Thanks everybody, Anthony
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The EPA turns forty , expect bigger and “better” things :
http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/12/the_uss_little_shop_of_horrors.html
GISS and UAH data should be out any time. Curious to see if the avg temps decline as expected after the death of El Nino.
Sonic Frog: UAH is out for November, and the number is truly surprising. It is +.38. I cannot get anything close to +.38 with the daily readings that are available. Perhaps, Dr. Spencer will enlighten us soon.
Why not do something for science that is not, apparently, considered all that sciency?
How ’bout make an argument or two to get scientist to actually communicate, properly and honestly, to the “rest”? Like for instance when bone head hippies are speaking, or writing, about temperature anomalies they also include the actual temperature referenced by those anomalies by their relation, rather then just 0, zip, nill and frakking null? Or would that be too much to ask for for the puny scientists?
Tony
RE: 2010 being the 3 rd warmest despite cooling for 12 years.
First of all here is the actual data for UAH, GISS, and CRU with a handy graphing tool to extract trends. Plug in your own values !
I love it [ woodfor trees.org] because it takes the data out of the hands of the “cardinals of climate change” and lets the average Joe analyze it.
Here is the trend from 2005 to 2010 which is sharply downward.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2005/to:2010/plot/uah/from:2005/to:2010/trend
Don’t let appearances fool you the fairest way to assess a trend is not just to take the first point and the last point and draw a line through them. That is how a child would do it. A high or low point in the last data point causes you to make incorrect conclusions.
For Example: Visualize a sine wave going nowhere with no upward or downward trend, Now draw a line from the lowest point on the sine wave to the highest point where you end the data. You could incorrectly deduce there is a huge warming or cooling trend when there was no trend at all.
Scientists and engineers have long been familiar with the problem which fools little children every day. The solution is called the least mean squares method which I will describe below.
A much more scientific method is called the least mean squares method which is much less subject to “cherry picking”. It consists of drawing a line through the data and minimizing the square of the distance of each data point to the trend line.
If you do that using whatever method you prefer you see a downward trend in the temperature from 2001 to 2010. The blip in 2010 caused by an El Nino is factored in as it should be logically.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:2001/to:2009/plot/uah/from:2001/to:2009/trend
You can do the same graph using UAH.EDU data and an Excel spreadsheet if you have the time.
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltg lhmam_5.3
So you see there is no problem seeing that it cooled slightly for 12 years but there was an El Nino in early 2010 making 2010 kick upward, the trend is still going down sharply from 2005 to 2010.
Anthony gets a couple of mentions: http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/12/03/climate-cancun-science-warming/?test=latestnews
An update on Britain’s early winter weather and many other locales as well. Interesting that you have to go to a United Arab Emirates site to get straight news on Europe…
At least 60 killed by cold snap across Europe
http://www.emirates247.com/news/world/at-least-60-killed-by-cold-snap-across-europe-2010-12-03-1.324411
It’s all in HadCRUT3…
Warmest Decade on Record
Decade-Long Cooling Trend
There is a quite interesting article on the NZ climate conversation website: here:
http://www.climateconversation.wordshine.co.nz/
Kindest Regards
Is it just me or is there a Happy Face on the sun’s back side?
http://solarcycle24.com/stereobehind.htm
Interesting paper on the “ethics” of skepticism here.
http://www.climatedebatedaily.com/Ethical%20Defense.pdf
Billy Blofeld says:
December 3, 2010 at 8:42 am
Unfortunately, Billy, if you live outside the UK you cannot use iPlayer. Perhaps you could give us the essence of it.
Tony says:
December 3, 2010 at 8:18 am
The U.N. is saying “2010 among 3 hottest years”. (read this here: http://www.wral.com/weather/story/8714527/)
But then I keep reading here that we’ve been cooling for the past 8 years.
Conversely you could look at Roy Spencer’s more accurate and less politically modified data here
http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Warming_Look.html#UAH MSU
OR
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
Warren in Minnesota says:
I have questions, but no answers. How much CO2 is tied up in limestone? Is this CO2 C13 or C12? How do the amounts of carbon in limstone and coal/oil/gas compare?
See here:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/clathrate-to-production/
This chart:
http://marine.usgs.gov/fact-sheets/gas-hydrates/gas-hydrates-3.gif
Note the caption that says rocks are not on the chart as they are 1000 times more than all the other carbon combined.
Per C12 / C13 ratios. You’d have to speculate as there as massive quantities of rock that have not been drilled and characterized. If you google it “Limestone C12 C13) you get a lot of old references. They tend to report about 0.9 so it’s C13 enriched. For what was tested. But who knows how much it varied based on the air at the time of formation.
Oh, and as a side bar, I’d just note that we’ve recently discovered that some fish excrete “gut rocks” made from carbonates, and we’re not real clear on that C12 / C13 ratio either, so the recent ratio changes in the air could just be from all the fish we harvested no long pooping out the stones…
But “the bottom line” is that WAY before you do anything else, you need to figure out what is going on with the carbonate rock geology and volcanoes, including those under the sea, as they are 100,000% of the problem, while “air” is down in the 4/18800% range.
(Hopefully I’ve done the decimal point shift right. It’s a 1000 x for the rocks of a 100% non-rock with “atmosphere” being 3.6 Gtons while the rest of that 100% chart total to about 18,800 of that 100%, so I think that makes it 1000 x 100% for the rocks, or 100,000% and 3.6/18,800% for the air or 0.0000191% . Really, though, it ought to be stated as ‘nearly’ 100% for rocks and 0.00002% for the air with rounding up. And it’s 18,776.6 total for the chart but given the round 10,000 and 5000 I think that has some false precision in it…)
But the bottom line is that the air is just not even an error term on the geological processes that dominate CO2 and C12 / C13 ratios.
My thanks to everyone who has helped answer my question – it’s quite appreciated!
Juraj V. says: December 3, 2010 at 8:58 am
http://www.physorg.com/news/2010-11-satellites-reveal-differences-sea.html
“According to the new results, the annual world average sea level rise is about 1 millimeter, or about 0.04 of an inch.”
The 1mm/yr component is from meltwater only and does not include thermal expansion (about 2mm/yr). From the article: “that average annual rise in sea level rise due to meltwater entering the ocean is about 1 millimeter, but that an additional rise will come from that fact that as the average temperature rises so does the ocean temperature, which in turn causes the volume of the ocean to increase.”
To add insult to injury, years after the EU[SSR] started to prohibit incandescent light bulbs, now the German Umweltbundesamt (UBA) (Environmental Federal Office)
FOUND OUT THAT ENERGY SAVING BULBS CONTAIN MERCURY and warns accordingly.
German:
http://www.rtl.de/cms/ratgeber/haus-und-wohnen/gefaehrliche-energiesparlampen.html
Geniusses. One of them must have surfed the blogosphere during working hours. Or maybe they want to prepare us for the return of candlelight.
I’m also puzzled by this proclamation re 2010 being one of the or even the warmest year. I understand the PR value of this announcement for the climate summit but nonetheless I’d like to know:
Throughout the Southern Hemisphere Winter a number of articles here and elsewhere reported record cold snaps and generally a much colder Winter than average – reportedly Spring in Australia has also been cooler than normal, so did the Northern Hemisphere Summer completely balance this out? How are the figures added up for this (theoretical) global average temperature for 2010? Or was the Southern Winter really above average temperaturewise with only very localised cold spells?
And how can this announcement be made based on only 10 months of data?
scott says:
December 3, 2010 at 10:47 am
I got a deer in Upper Michigan and my brother noted the same thing about high abdominal fat in the deer. I attributed it to the exceptional acorn crop … acorns are very high calorie preferred food for deer. The acorns are still scattered all over the ground, usually they’ve been picked clean by critters by now.”
The oaks in Eastern PA this past fall shed more acorns than I can remember. No wonder the deer are getting fat!
Vicky Pope, of the UK Met Office, cannot fly to Cancun to announce the hottest year of all time because …… her flight from the UK has been cancelled due to the cold and snow. AH, life’s sweet ironies.
AGW Quiz.
Name that “one graph”.
1. Snowmann’s graph.
2. Womann’s graph.
3. Unmanned graph.
4. None of the above.
“*The panel said one graph, that showed the extent of global warming and was circulated around the world, was “misleading” because it failed to explain how the information was gathered.”
…-
“*Prince Charles defends ‘climategate’ scientists”
“The Prince of Wales has come out in support of the British scientists embroiled in the “Climategate” saga, describing their treatment as “appalling”.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8179778/Prince-Charles-defends-climategate-scientists.html
…-
“Mercury falls in Britian(sic), travel woes continue in Europe”
“Five of Britain’s 19 nuclear reactors were also out of action Thursday because of the bad weather. And the country’s biggest store of natural gas could be empty within weeks if the wintry weather lasts into the New Year, the report said.”
http://sify.com/news/mercury-falls-in-britian-travel-woes-continue-in-europe-news-international-kmdsIbaefgg.html
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/mt/mt-comments.cgi
Maren says:
December 3, 2010 at 2:16 pm
“And how can this announcement be made based on only 10 months of data?”
Oh, they already got all the data for the 12 months…
Robert Austin and his buddies are marveling at the fat deer. Scotty attributed it to the great acorn crop.
Does that mean oak trees respond positively to increase CO2 levels?
James Sexton said:
There’s so much to talk about in this story, I wouldn’t know where to start. Shell? The prince? Air bubbles born in 1410? Then there’s always the mainstay of tree rings!
———————————————————————————
It’s a corker, James. I especially love the exactly 600 year old air bubbles, put on display just in time for this important birthday! So thoughtful.
Did Charlie blow out the candles for them?