The current weather forecast for November 2, 2010 looks ugly for the middle Atlantic East Coast with easterly winds and rain chances set up between a Canadian high pressure cell and a developing SE US low. Temperatures there are expected to be in the 40s and 50s. The Pacific Northwest may also see considerable wet weather.
There are some old axioms that certain political parties in the USA should pray for rain or sunshine, but in early November, you never know what you will get in terms of weather. A study a few years back by Florida State University professor Brad Gomez comprehensively analyzed the relationship between Presidential voter turnout and weather using over 20,000 individual weather stations from 1948-2000. In their paper, Gomez et al. found empirical evidence that rain (snow) reduces voter participation by about 1% (0.5%) per inch, and may have affected the electoral outcome of the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections.
While the upcoming November 2 midterm elections have a significantly lower voter participation than Presidential years, it is likely that weather is more important to voter turnout and election outcome. This type of study is a great way to combine social and physical sciences to model effects of weather and climate on political issues — rather than vice versa.
Abstract of paper:
The relationship between bad weather and lower levels of voter turnout is widely espoused by media, political practitioners, and, perhaps, even political scientists. Yet, there is virtually no solid empirical evidence linking weather to voter participation. This paper provides an extensive test of the claim.We examine the effect of weather on voter turnout in 14 U.S. presidential elections. Using GIS interpolations, we employ meteorological data drawn from over 22,000 U.S. weather stations to provide election day estimates of rain and snow for each U.S. county. We find that, when compared to normal conditions, rain significantly reduces voter participation by a rate of just less than 1% per inch, while an inch of snowfall decreases turnout by almost .5%. Poor weather is also shown to benefit the Republican party’s vote share. Indeed, the weather may have contributed to two Electoral College outcomes, the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections.
And conclusions:
The results of the zero precipitation scenarios reveal only two instances in which a perfectly dry election day would have changed an Electoral College outcome. Dry elections would have led Bill Clinton to win North Carolina in 1992 and Al Gore to win Florida in 2000. This latter change in the allocation of Florida’s electors would have swung the incredibly close 2000 election in Gore’s favor. Of course, the converse is that a rainier day would have increased George W. Bush’s margin and may have reduced the importance of issues with the butterfly ballot, overvotes, etc. Scholars have identified a number of other factors that may have affected the Florida outcome (see Brady et al. 2001; Imai and King 2004; Mebane 2004)—it was, after all, a very close election with only 537 votes separating Bush and Gore—but to our knowledge we are the first to find that something as simple as rainy weather in some of the Florida counties may have played a critical role in determining the outcome of a presidential election.
The partisan bias associated with weather depressed voter turnout can have meaningful repercussions for election outcomes. Our simulation results for the 1960 and 2000 presidential elections are key examples. The closeness of the 1960 race (a scant 118,000 popular votes separated Kennedy and Nixon) made several states pivotal in the Electoral College, including Illinois, where allegations of vote fraud undertaken by Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley followed
Kennedy’s 9,000 vote victory. We cannot say whether Kennedy’s victory benefited from such actions, but we can claim that Kennedy benefited from relatively good weather. In responding to the Florida debacle in the 2000 presidential election, Democrats complained incessantly about a litany of factors that stood as obstacles to a Gore victory: “butterfly ballots,” “hanging chads,” the Florida Secretary of State, the newly elected president’s brother (the Governor of Florida), and, of course, the Republican-appointed Justices on the United States Supreme Court. Yet, our results show that the weather may have hurt their cause just as much. In close elections, the weather becomes one of many factors that can be determinative.
It is clear from our results that Republicans benefit from precipitation on election day. To offset these Republican gains,
Democrats must take action to counteract the increased cost of voting among their supporters. Otherwise, Democrats may wish to “pray for dry weather.”
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As wroth as the weather may be on Nov. 2, the mood of the voters will be far worse than politically imagined.
It’s really too bad that all positions are not up at least once every 12 years or so. The voter turnout would ensure the few left sitting at the table would have real claims to leadership.
John Graham,
How did politicians buy votes? Even being forced to register or show up at a certain place or face a fine (I’m guessing) impedes my civil liberties far more than I’m willing. But I’m also against mandatory jury duty as well.
I voted as soon as the polls were open for early voting — pulled the handle straight “R”. I usually take some pride in weighing the candidates, but we’re past that now, even here in Texas. We’ve got to change the regime. Our country will be sunk, or at least listing hard a’port, if we don’t.
Go GOP. I hope it rains like there’s no tomorrow. We need it anyway — no measured rain this month.
By the way; just as an aside; since I can’t vote in your election allow me to offer an opinion. (as if I was in charge of making the rules.)
Since next Tuesday is Election day; as basically defined in law. I would require all polling places to open at 8:00 local time on next Tuesday; and close at 8:00 PM next tuesday; and that would be it. Come to your polling place in that 12 hour period or just don’t come at all. No absentee ballots; no early ballots; no late ballots; election day is election day; well I could see even making it a public holiday.
Now absentee ballots could be used in one instance only. Any Government employee; Federal, State, Local, including military personell who is required to be out of the country on legitimate Government business on election day; such as troops in the field; would have to have a ballot from in their hands at least 24 hours before election day starts (8:00 AM) local time; and would have to turn it in to an appropriate collection authority by the 8:00 local PM election close deadline; and all ballots would have to be in the hands of the local US authorities within 48 hours after the close of the election.
Anybody else out of the counrtry on election day; not on official government (fed/state/local) business; well tough S*** That’s your choice to make.
This current nonsense where some people voted months ago, is just BS, and guaranteed to invite fraud. Absentee ballots are the primary tool of voter fraudsters.
And it goes without saying that every voter would be required to present photo id and documentary proof of citizenship before their filled in ballot could be accepted; no exceptions.
One of my daughters happens to be a manager in a registrar of voters Office in a California County (she’s an Oregonian) and I could waltz into her office and ask for a voter registration form, and fill it out, and sign under penalty of perjury, that I am a US citizen; and hand it back to her; and she must accdept it; she cannot ask me to prove I am a citizen (which I’m not) and she can’t tell anybody else that she knows I just perjured myself; along with committing a federal felony.
That is completely insane; and serves the interest only of those bent on subverting the ballot process; to rig elections.
So go do your thing citizens; and choose wisely; your children and granchildren will have to live with your choices.
Don’t worry not a snowball’s chance in hell they would change to my system; it’s too obvious.
It could be a tornado mixed with a tsunami where I live on Nov 2 and I’m still going to vote. And it won’t be for Pro-communist-gressives, either.
OK, OK, OK!
I’ve got Dr. Spencer’s “climate feedback” figured out. GoreBull warming means, warm dry weather….extended. Then all the left wing loonies are voted in because their supporters show up. The left wing loonies destroy the economy, and emissions go down, brining on global cooling. The weather becomes COLD, wet, snowy…and only the people who ACTUALLY ARE PRODUCTIVE show up at the polls. They vote in people who support production and “industry” (the real type, that uses FUELS) producing more CO2 to bring back the GoreBull warming.
AN obvious feedback system which Dr. Spencer missed.
Max
Robert of Ottawa says:
October 27, 2010 at 5:31 pm
“From my experience in the political front-lines, I’d rather say that bad weather favors the committed. Non-commital or lack-a-daisical voters will not be bothered to turn out in bad weather.”
========================================================
It is true. However, one must note the demographics of the committed voter. Yes, this year, there will be more conservatives voting than otherwise “normal”. But both sides have “committed” areas. Hence, blue state/red state. (I still believe it was a media conspiracy to designate conservative states “red”.) But look at the map above. The threat of inclement weather is on the east and left coast. Currently, the conservatives are motivated. The liberals are disillusioned. So, bad weather in the east and west equates to less libs, and the conservatives are still more likely to vote.
Note, on the east coast, it should be stated that the further south one goes the less liberal narrative one hears. Florida being such a big swing state, as noted, a big player in the game.
A note about Florida dynamics, which is illustrated by Rubio. Many Cubans came to the states to escape communism and Castro. While a slight majority of Hispanics(Cubans are counted as such) vote Dems, many Cubans still recall the Bay of Pigs. It is written in their history. They’ve never forgot, nor forgave.
A personal note. My father was ordered to Florida during this event, moved to a tent camp, ready to deploy………….he was ordered back to his base a few days later. They were inplace, ready to go, ordered to stand down.
Mods, my post went to the black hole again. This one took me a beer or two to write. Would you be so kind as to retrieve my labor? Thanks.
REPLY: Don’t write such long drunken rants then 😉
“REPLY: Don’t write such long drunken rants then ;-)”
Well, I wouldn’t call it so much a rant more than a ramble, but still!!! There actually were some cognitive points in the ramble. In fact, I intentionally held back from the rant, which caused the long drunken ramble! ahahahaha
For people wondering about the differences between libs and conservatives, I’m told this is how it started, to coin a phrase from a person that insists he doesn’t have a political persuasion, pinhead or patriot?
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/28/guardian-thinks-13-trillion-debt-10-unemployment-and-worshipping-co2-is-sanity/#comment-7859
Hopefully the 8 who voted in favor of cap and trade are up for re-election and will get the boot!
In the olden days the political class would listen to the electorate and reflect their concerns in order to win their support. Nowadays the modern method is to rig the ballot by various means.
In little old England land town we have immigrant block votes and postal vote fraud and the withdrawal of tamper proof boxes(purely on cost grounds yer unnerstan?).
I believe in the land of the free(ish) the new trick in town is unchecked and unrestricted voter registration brought in by groups like ACORN/ACLU/NAACP?
I hope the tea party/real republican alliance wins and starts the deconstruction of the budding socialist state, I am sceptical whether this can be achieved without fierce and bitter conflict but as they say in the old West ‘hope dies last’.
RyanMaue: ACORN had to dissolve due to Andrew Breitbart’s hidden camera / prostitute expose. Hence, the victories in Mass. by Scott Brown and Chris Christie in NJ were a result of a “level playing field”.
Awesome, go GOP!
so i can deliver the final blow
Utter interesting post! Mr. Al Gore lost by 0.0005% of the popular vote in Florida. GOSH! The difference is smaller than the co2 concentration in the atmosphere! But Mr. Gore actually won 360.000 more popular votes. That is mind blowing!
I am very harsh with IPCC CO2 demonizing pseudoscience but not with Mr. Al Gore. I think Mr. Gore lost his mental balance by such defeat. He actually won by 360.000 popular votes, but your electoral system made him lose by 0.0005% votes in a State!
And such state (Florida) was governed by the brother of the opposing (winning) candidate! MIND BLOWING! If I had suffered such a defeat I would have, with no doubt, lost my mental balance (supposing that I have some of it! 🙂 ). That is the reason I think one must be kind to Mr. Gore because he is a man who has suffered a lot and I hate when Saturday Night Live or other people make fun of Mr. Gore. I am libertarian and hate socialism which is a regime of bullies. When socialism can get EXTREME POWER & CONTROL , as it got under COMMUNISM, then it becomes a regime of EXTREME MASS MURDER -around 200 million (!!!) MURDERED by communists!- and it becomes too a regime of EXTREME MASS THEFT and EXTREME MASS SADISM (look at those tens millions sadistically murdered BY HUNGER in Russia, China, Ethiopia! Seek, for instance, Holodomor Ukraine ).
I am Latin American and I am used to passionate people. In many latin american countries an electoral outcome as the USA 2000 outcome would have meant Civil War by impassioned people of one party or another . For you US citizens Latin America usually means Mexico but Latin America is essentially South America which is very different from Mexico, Mexico has a history of violence that South America does not have.
Mainstream Media is often demonizing South America I think because here communism will never take root, we are pretty much like Italy, very “politically incorrect” and family oriented and socialists hates us because we love our families and we refuse to worship politicians and bureaucrats and put the “state” over our families, as socialism dictates. But even here such an election would have meant political unrest or even Civil War. It is amazing how such a situation in the USA ended quietly, you have an amazing trust in your institutions, that is simply awesome.
It is pretty clear that politicians and bureaucrats, with their usual orgy of insane power & control over people and $trillions in tax an spend caused every major economic crisis. But they pretend, based on keynesian pseudoscience, that such extremely harmful orgy of power, control and $trillions instead of being the cause of crisis was “necessary” to “save” the world from itself (!!) . The same history that co2 alarmists fed us, based too on pseudoscience.
Clearly in the USA it is the democrats who more often promote the old tired story that says we will reach paradise if we give even more exorbitant power, control & $trillions to the political class. But the contract that says that republicans will take control of US congress has today a 90% price which, according to some academics, means that the markets give a 90% probability of a republican control of the US Congress. There is too a contract that gives a very high probability of democrat control of the US Senate.
I hope republican control of the congress happens. Republicans are no saints, but they are less promoters of more destructive power, control and $trillions to politicians and bureaucrats. Moreover having one party in the legislative branch and other party in the executive branch is one of the best ways of limiting the utter destructive power of the political class.
It is pretty obvious that the sun is the main temperature factor, but co2 alarmists will ignore such an INCONVENIENT TRUTH. Its is pretty obvious that if you tax MORE employment & investment then you will get LESS employment & investment, that is the same reason they allege for taxing “pollutant” co2. But they ignore such INCOVENIENT -and obvious- TRUTH and go on promoting their power & control & tax & spend orgy. They deserve to lose, the USA -and the world because the USA is such a big part of the world economy- deserves and needs an economic recovery thanks to less taxes, regulations and $trillions in tax and spend.
I hope the weather and results are so bad Ogabe just bags it and calls in “sick of working way too hard”, to spend more time with the beer cart gals.
He says he’ll fight and scratch every step of the way but that’ll mean an extended guvmint shutdown. No clean mirrors? He’s got better prospects.
SouthAmericanGirls says:
October 27, 2010 at 10:23 pm
I am very harsh with IPCC CO2 demonizing pseudoscience but not with Mr. Al Gore. I think Mr. Gore lost his mental balance by such defeat. He actually won by 360.000 popular votes, but your electoral system made him lose by 0.0005% votes in a State!
I have given this matter a lot of thought.
In the end, I prefer the electoral college system. First, and foremost, it compartmentalizes (and thus limits) corruption — it prevents more than one state being stolen at a time. If five million “extra” votes materialize in Chicago, that would be enough to steal any close popular national vote. But with the electoral college, all that gets stolen is Illinois (which probably would have voted democrat anyway).
So one “soft spot” where corruption is rife can’t tilt an entire election result. At most it could throw just one state. It’s dirty and choppy, but preferable to the alternative.
Another point is that if popular vote alone counted, the less populous states would be almost completely ignored. It wouldn’t be an effective use of campaign dollars or time. But with the electoral college system, the whole country gets to participate.
In an ideal situation, I would prefer a straight popular vote. But things just ain’t ideal, and the EC, for all its flaws, limits the effects of corruption and discourages regionalism.
For that matter, we don’t even know if Gore actually had more votes because many states do not go to the expense of counting absentee ballots unless there are enough possibly to change the result in that particular state. A very large number of absentee ballots were never counted, and absentee voting usually favors the GOP. The “official” count does not consider them. So we do not really know who had the most actual votes.
It is amazing how such a situation in the USA ended quietly, you have an amazing trust in your institutions, that is simply awesome.
We know that a president or congressman will step down after his term is over (assuming he is not re-elected). Therefore, even if an election is stolen, the effects are limited.
Some damnfool klunk-head (the president of IBM, IIRC), while traveling in France, told some European heads of state that Nixon would “call off” the 1972 elections and they actually believed him. There was ZERO chance of that.
It shows a.) how mindbendingly irresponsible some idiots with a bit of power can be, and b.) how little Europeans, even sophisticated, educated heads of state, understand the US when it comes right down to it.
Republicans are no saints
Mmm, yes. But I doubt I could bring myself to vote for a saint . . .
I appreciate your post (and agree with most of it).
Here in the Evergreen State we all vote in the comfort of our living rooms. Its been two years since the polls closed for the last time. I miss rainy elections, and dry ones too.
Back before all mail elections I never missed my day of duty and I enjoyed it very much, and always felt pride – even when my pick lost. Of course now I get to vote naked (or clothed – my choice since its in my home). I couldn’t do that at the polls.
Sorry if OT,
But there is a poll running in my part of the woods regarding whether the Inconvenient Truth should be shown to children in schools, see here.
Please cast your vote & of course no pressure.. closes in 7 hours.
899 says:
October 27, 2010 at 5:23 pm
The plaintive cry of the democrat/socialist/communist/librul/altruist: “Rainy days and Mondays always get me down.”
http://www.sing365.com/music/lyric.nsf/Rainy-Days-And-Mondays-lyrics-Carpenters/18FA487F2A7A22E6482568720033B5A1
Reply
Dont forget the Conservative, Republican, Tea Party, Fascist and Nazi love of “Blue skies shining on me me” and the Youth wings “Tomorrow belongs to me” sung outside under summer skies!
During the 2010 GOP primaries, if you remember, Rudy Giuliani waited until the Florida primary before even getting involved. By that time, it was too late because John McCain won the winner-take-all primary votes. Rudy dropped out and pretty soon the nomination question was answered just after Super Tuesday. The GOP is likely going to adopt a new system of awarding delegates based upon the percentage of votes in each primary/caucus, thus extending the primary process much later into the Spring. An alternative would be to require states that can’t resist holding primaries in January and February to award partial delegates but let the later ones be winner-take-all.
While Operation Chaos engineered by R. Limbaugh kept the Dem primary going in Pennsylvania, the notion of open primaries will likely come up again (or the top-two system in some other states). If individual states awarded their electoral votes based upon the percentage of popular vote, then that would be an absolute catastrophe for the Democrats which really only have smatterings of blue against a very red tapestry.
Republicans have expensive private transporation like limosines and Humvees to get to the voting location and back though inclement weather. Democrats have to hold a newspaper over their heads and travel by foot. I can’t think of anything else that explains it.
Adam
If the population has to vote there is no point in politicians busing in people or making promises on a very local level, most of the promises in our elections are on a regional or state base (were talking about Federal Elections here) i.e. new Hospital, road, large park etc. as for your civil rights, if you live in a democracy you have a duty to participate in picking you politicians if you don’t how can you complain! Also the people that get elected know how much support they have.
I wish that I had the chance to vote for a party which is sceptical of man-made global warming. However, here in Scotland, every single party follows the ipcc line slavishly.
The ridiculous thing is that Scotland could do with some global warming. Last winter killed several of my plants and it’s not easy to grow a lot of flowers in Scotland. The summers here could do with some serious warming too.
Robert of Ottawa says: October 27, 2010 at 5:36 pm
. . . Phew, thank goodness I waited until that last word before responding. Imagine how wrong I hope they slash and burn AGW alarmists would be.
Well, I guess I could at least try to imagine it.
Already struck my blow against the regime. Line was shorter this time because the bus from Chicago got tied up in the I-80 shovel-ready repaving nightmare.
I’m pretty sure they also had compulsory voting in Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and in the old Soviet Union.
The 1960 vote totals and outcome in Illinois and Texas had nothing to do with voter turnout. I was one of the Boy Scouts whom a local radio station had at all the polling places to call in the vote totals. After I did that, we sat around and listened to all the results coming in from around Illinois. No Chicago, no Chicago, everywhere but Chicago. We laughed because the dummies up in Chicago didn’t know how to count past 10 without taking off their shoes and sox.
After all the downstate precincts reported and Nixon was leading, then the Chicago totals came in, and Kennedy won by just enough. Guess they knew how to count after all.
The Illinois and Texas frauds were so blatant that everyone urged Nixon to contest those results, but Nixon declined, saying the nation deserved a President without a cloud over his election. But then Nixon had class, Mr Gore.
p.s. Dr Gomez’s study sounds like a crock.
I see UAH temps are about to enter negative territory.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+002
Is that fastest downward trend on record?