In another example of vital statistics being grossly distorted by a combination of poor record keeping and possibly people with a selfish agenda, it is being reported in the Guardian and elsewhere that possibly hundreds of thousands of people over age 100 in Japan are actually dead, but unreported. Investigations are now underway to determine how much of this problem is due to record keeping problems and how much to family members failing to report the deaths of their elderly relatives in order to continue to collect their pension benefits by fraudulent means.
There are more than 77,000 Japanese citizens reported to be over age 120, and even 884 persons AGED OVER 150 YEARS OF AGE, who are still alive according to government rolls.
While we in the US wouldn’t bat an eye if we heard this story coming out of the Chicago area of Cook County, Illinois, given the number of dead people still actively voting in elections there, there are at least 230,000 people in Japan over age 100 who simply cannot be located by any means. This large centenarian population is largely responsible for the very high average life expectancy in Japan (currently listed by the World Bank as 82.6 years, more than four years greater than the US average of 78.4 years (this is including dead voters in Chicago)), as well as any senior citizens under 100 who are actually dead but have not been reported as such on government records.
NOTE: Even if persons over 100 aren’t counted in life expectancy statistics, as is claimed later in the article, the problem doesn’t just begin at age 100, it is clear that whatever problems are at the root of these errors, they extend to a large number of people below age 100 who are also dead but are listed as alive on government records.
This distortion in Japan’s real average life expectancy is a great example of how a large body of statistics can be spoiled by poor record keeping or outright fraud.
Where this becomes problematic for us in the US is that Japan’s high life expectancy has been repeatedly used by the left as “facts” to support their demands for universal health care as well as various changes in the dietary, smoking, and exercise habits of Americans, frequently associated with proposals for large amounts of government regulation and taxation of the lives of private citizens and regulation and banning of various legal products (soda pop, breakfast cereals, beef, etc). We should look on the exposure of this statistical error as an object lesson we can apply to other public policy issues that so-called scientists attempt to promote ‘solutions’ to problems that they claim exist, based on faulty facts.
Oops, spelling error. It should have been Jeanne Calment.
[Cured….. bl57~mod]
Ken Harvey, Robinson, Doubting Thomas and I would have a lot in common I feel.
The problem with statistics is the uncritical acceptance of them.
Take radiation, no safe level. Proved by statistics. But then a block of flats in Taiwan was found to be constructed of irradiated steel. The residents of many years were examined and found to have a cancer rate much below the norm. So, backed up by other statistics of many life forms exposed to varying rates it was established there is a low radiation level that is beneficial to life.
Take Melanoma. Proved by statistics that it is caused by sun exposure. Slip, slap, slop with the suntan lotion. Except that the cancer rate in general goes up. Lack of Vit D causes more cancer deaths than before. Proved statistically.
Many other examples, animal fats vs vegetable fats, animal fats win because most of the vegetable fats are compromised by manufacturing processes. PSA tests indicate prostate cancer, test as many as possible. Large studies involving 77,000 show there is no difference in outcomes between untested and untreated control and tested, and treated subjects over ten years.
I find it rather curious that the three longest lived persons in the last ten years, 114, 115, and Ms Calmett 122 were all smokers,at least until 120yrs, and then Ms Calmett gave it up on Drs orders!
So the key to immortality is to keep from being reported as dead??
John DeFayette says:
September 13, 2010 at 1:50 pm
“OK, how ’bout a show of hands: who else was shocked reading such a vacuous article on these grounds?….
Now, can we please get back to saving the free world from raving environmentalists?”
Shocking? Why? It is perhaps a vacuous article, although it is more accurately a vague article, mainly because of the absence of relevant numbers that would otherwise permit to make accurate and objective criticisms. Still, it is merely a summary of an article in the Guardian, which article is no less vague.
Nevertheless, I found it to be interesting that some commenters here find fault with a perceived misrepresentation in the Guardian’s article on the strength of a government’s agency’s assertion offered in that article, which states in effect that the discrepancies found are immaterial because the data going into the census statistics are made to be deliberately selective.
The brings into the open two absurd situations: firstly that a government agency (the family registry office) refuses to accept that errors found by another government agency (the justice ministry) are errors that matter, secondly that two camps are evolving — based on insufficient evidence — in this discussion thread that argue for and against one or the other of the two government agencies.
However, a third group — with cooler heads — simply points out that insufficient evidence has been presented, which lack of information makes it impossible to determine the true dimensions of the apparent statistical disaster, much as is the case with homogenization of weather data for purposes of predicting climate trends that invariably turn out to err on the alarmist side.
The evolution of all of those aspects is most fascinating to see, but I am puzzled by the request that we now should get back to “saving the free world from raving environmentalists”, as that request is not calling for objective science but for agenda-driven activism. Not only that, but that is a request for reducing the focus of WUWT to be far more narrow than specified by the blog’s owner.
John, you are not chained down to this discussion thread on the accuracy of longevity statistics. Rather than to attempt to censor here, why don’t you simply read another thread with a topic that is more to your liking? There are many more topics to pick from at WUWT.
However, John, “a show of hands” to decided what should or should not be discussed on a science blog that made it its mission to promote objective science and to combat “science by consensus”? That surely is carrying things a bit too far.
A Census Taker comes to the door of a dwelling somewhere in Japan, the door is answered by Hiro-san, a dutiful great grandson:
Census Taker: [pointing to a wrinkled and still body sitting in front of the HD TV] “THAT woman is DEAD”.
Hiro-san: “Oh no, most esteemed sir, my great grandmother is merely resting.”
Census Taker: “She isn’t moving.”
Hiroo-san: “Oh no, she is just very, very slow. It’s the thyroid, you see.”
Census Taker: “I don’t see her breathing.”
Hiro-san: “She uses her diaphragm. It is a shinto exercise. It helps her train to hold her breath under water.”
Census Taker: “Well, all right, she doesn’t need to get up on my account, just have her fill in the form and I’ll be back Monday to pick it up.”
Hiro-san: “Certainly, thank you.”
frederik wisse says:
September 13, 2010 at 12:57 pm
Winston Churchchill once quite correctly remarked . There are lies , outright lies and then there is statistics
I beleive that was Mark Twain, and the actual quote is: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”
evanmjones says:
September 13, 2010 at 8:12 pm
And I think I can safely predict that there will be no jokes whatever on SNL to the effect of, “Fidel Castro is still dead.”
You are probably right. However humor is best when it is shared. And we all know that the left is humorless.
why must people lie to give money to there family, i mean don’t government workers get good benefits and good money. Can’t people just life like it is intended.