We’ve also heard that “snow will be a thing of the past” too.
Via Euerkalert and the University of Salamanca, some heated worry, sans UHI, and AMO:
Given the impact of climatic extremes on agriculture and health in Spain, researchers at the University of Salamanca (USAL) have analysed the two factors most representative of these thermal extremes between 1950 and 2006 – warm days and cold nights. The results for mainland Spain show an increase in the number of warm days greater than that for the rest of the planet and a reduction in the number of cold nights.
Few studies to date have focused on climatic extremes and the changes occurring in maximum and minimum temperatures and in warm day and cold night variables. Until now, most research studies had analysed average temperature changes on a global scale. These results indicated an increase “most probably” caused by human factors.
The new study, published in the journal Climatic Change, has made it possible to analyse the causes of the variations in climatic extremes from a physical point of view, in other words “which changes are taking place in the air masses reaching the Iberian Peninsula, as well as sea temperature”, as Concepción Rodríguez, lead author of the study and a researcher at the General and Atmospheric Physics Department at the USAL, tells SINC.
“The results indicate an increasing trend in the frequency of warm days and a reduction in the frequency of cold nights. The trend towards the reduction of cold nights correlates with that obtained at global level, according to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the increase in warm days in mainland Spain is higher than the number obtained globally for the planet as a whole”, the scientist explains.
The atmosphere and oceans are thermometers
In order to explain these differences, the scientific team linked the increase in warm days with climate teleconnection indices, which show the variability of atmospheric and oceanic characteristics. “Warm days are related to atmospheric teleconnection patterns, while cold nights are caused, principally, by the temperature of the sea (in the North Atlantic)”, the researcher adds.
Weather that draws air masses up from the north of Africa is the leading cause of warm days. “The type of weather that causes more cold nights is the depression over the Gulf of Genoa, which brings cold and dry air from central Europe to Spain”, explains Rodríguez, who says that the change in the number of warm days and cold nights is much more pronounced in the south west and north east of the Iberian Peninsula. “One of the most probable causes of these changes is the variation in the surface temperature of the sea in the eastern Atlantic”, she points out.
Last July, the researchers presented their study for the whole of Europe at the Congress on Statistics and Climatology in Edinburgh (Scotland). This study showed a “fairly significant” increase in warm days and nights in summertime.
References:
Rodríguez-Puebla, Concepción; Encinas, Ascensión H.; García-Casado, Luis Alberto; Nieto, Susana. “Trends in warm days and cold nights over the Iberian Peninsula: relationships to large-scale variables” Climatic Change 100(3-4): 667-684, junio de 2010. DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9721-0
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I’m a 40+ years old national spanish. I used to work for the national weather service back in the 90’s.
In Spain, most people live densely packed around 15 o 20 cities, the rest of the country is almost empty except the coast line. These cities have experienced a huge growth over the past 40 years.
Almost all weather stations before 1970 were located in the suburbs of these cities or in airports. These suburbs were nice places to measure temperature 40 years ago, but now they are surrounded by thousands of new buildings. On the other side, air transportation wasn’t well extended in Spain until mid 70’s or 80’s, so there were very few real airports back in the 60’s and 50’s.
Another interesting fact is that electronic automatic weather stations weren’t deployed until late 80’s, and it was done in a massive way to replace man operated stations. I remember seeing big differences between temperature readings both in automatic and man operated stations. The transition between automatic and manual took several years. Automatic weather stations is a modern feature in Spain and I’m not sure if, in the end, spanish meteorologist were able to get a ‘smooth’ transition between both operating procedures.
Back in the 50’s, Spain was a poor country and imported gods (as good instrumentation) was a luxurious thing that very few could afford. The weather service never was a properly founded public service until mid 80’s, when several huge storms killed many people and the government started being concerned about weather. It was then when a massive Fujitsu Facom M382 supercomputer was ordered and was then when The spanish weather service started to use software from the University of Wisconsin (McIDAS).
That said, I don’t thing that the data available is good enough to get such a very precise conclusion as the people at the University of Salamanca claims.
Regards.
PD: Anthony, thanks for this superb website.
“The results for mainland Spain show an increase in the number of warm days greater than that for the rest of the planet and a reduction in the number of cold nights.”
Excellent. The Everywhere Is Warmer Than Everywhere Else theme continues.
/eyeroll
So, this effect could, in fact, be flipped yet again when the Atlantic surface temps start their cooling trend. She makes this current weather pattern sound so final.
We all know that past weather (climates) have gone through both warm and cold periods. This will continue.
Is tat based on raw data or homogenized data?
Las winter they had record snowfalls in the Pyrenees, in the Spanish Sierra Nevada they had the largest snow accumulation of the Century. This summer they were using carterpillars to clean the snow from ski slopes on a ski resort in the Pyrenees to make possible a traditional mountain bike competition.
I wonder how that fit into the study.
This reminds me of:
“Everywhere is warming faster than anywhere else”
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/07/24/faster-than-everyplace-else/
Breaking news:
Environmentalist takes hostages at Discovery Channel HQ, (Silver Spring MD)
Climate Lunacy manifesto:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1178147/pg1
UK John,
There is a recent study in the Swiss Alps about the treeline migraring upwards. They found that the main reason was declining traditional farming
http://www.wsl.ch/staff/niklaus.zimmermann/papers/JVegSci_Gehrig_2007.pdf
Very O/T but,
Concerned ‘Green’ holding a hostage at the Discovery Channel Building.
Here’s the story: http://minx.cc/?post=305261
And, yes that’s his ‘manifesto’
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wRb2N5UYIwAJ:www.savetheplanetprotest.com/+savetheplanetprotest.com&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us&client=firefox-a
Make that 6 hostages.
My mistake.
This looks like a trap to catch Willis! See if he bites.
“The results for mainland Spain show an increase in the number of warm days greater than that for the rest of the planet”
I’m not getting it. Why is this significant? The rest of the planet’s increase in warm days is some vague and abstract average. Why would any area in the world exactly equal that average? Every area has some slightly different average than the average of the whole Earth, of course! Moreover, there has to be about an equal amount of places above and below that average.
I find it odd that this recent report ends at 2006, when data to 2009 is available?
They wouldn’t be trying to hide the decline… would they???
The good news of the economic downturn is that sometime THEY won’t have money to buy all those color ink cartridges they spend. 🙂
All areas are warming “faster than the rest of the planet” – Arctic, New Zealand, Australia and now Spain, too. So some parts of the planet must warm slower than the rest of the planet, but they were not a subject of scientific studies yet, so their whereabouts is unknown.
Damned Skeptic says:
September 1, 2010 at 10:27 am
You must revisit WUWT archives and read them all. Then you will realize that we have entered in a Maunder like Minimum, where those REDS, unfortunately, have no place, for at least 30 years more.
Sun’s “cardiogram”, as taken at the ER:
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/PF.gif
Please, remember this, next Christmas.
However, the increase in warm days in mainland Spain is higher than the number obtained globally for the planet as a whole”, the scientist explains.
What, you mean the number of warm days doesn’t hit the Global average? When it comes to CAGW, wonders never cease! Some are even “fairly significant”: “This study showed a ‘fairly significant’ increase in warm days and nights in summertime.”
And so Winter’s still relatively safe, then? You know, “Given the impact of climatic extremes on…health in Spain.” And thank god Spain doesn’t have to worry about Socialism’s “impact”.
There is an spanish proverb which says:
Lo que natura non da Salamanca non presta
Meaning: What nature does not give you, Salamanca (the university) can not lend it to you.
It seems that this applies to these guys. LOL!!
O/T – The UK has just had the coldest August for 17 years.
“Weather that draws air masses up from the north of Africa is the leading cause of warm days. “The type of weather that causes more cold nights is the depression over the Gulf of Genoa, which brings cold and dry air from central Europe to Spain”, explains Rodríguez, who says that the change in the number of warm days and cold nights is much more pronounced in the south west and north east of the Iberian Peninsula. “One of the most probable causes of these changes is the variation in the surface temperature of the sea in the eastern Atlantic”, she points out.”
What a load of crap! It is frightening to read how researchers could be so clueless about meteorology and atmospheric circulation and have to invoke Teleconnections to come to the rescue of their ignorance!
During the late 20th century warming period the depression track from the Atlantic moved poleward and Spain received more frequent southerly and maritime air masses.
The trend has already reversed with the depression track having moved back equatorward again.
Their report may be factually correct but is now out of date and the cause has been incorrectly attributed unless they assert that more CO2 makes the jets move poleward.
That was being said a while ago (on the Discovery Channel and elsewhere) but since then CO2 has continued to increase but the jets moved equatorward so that’s a dead duck.
As the late Marcel Leroux was mocking these kind of ignoramuses: “we all know it’s warm in the South so when it’s warm here, air must be coming from the south… bulletproof BS isn’t it?!”
In order to establish the cause, more research should be done on land cover changes.
Perhaps more importantly the surface trend should be compared to the satellite trend in the lower troposphere. Is this a general warming in the lapse rate or is this a surface boundary layer issue caused by changes in albedo, evaporation, etc.?
Too many open questions to draw any conclusions about causality!
did someone really say
…it shows a warming trend without regard to the evidence presented …
hehe. couldn’t resist.
I think we (spanish) are very angry with our asshole president Zapatero and his friends (spanish ministers and world dictators), so temperature grows up everywere.
would a journal called “Climatic Change” accept papers which would put its existance into question ?