By Steve Goddard
August 16, 2010 offered a great opportunity to put all the Arctic data together in a coherent picture. DMI showed a large drop in extent.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
You can see the drop between August 15 and August 16 clearly in red in the modified NSIDC map below.
So what happened? Did 300,000 km2 of ice suddenly melt?
Not exactly. There were very strong winds pushing the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas towards the pole on August 15. This compacted the ice, reducing extent while increasing the average thickness.
You can see the August 15 movement of ice in Beaufort Sea in the satellite blink map below. Note how the ice edge is tightening up and compacting.
Will this continue? Probably not. The weather forecast calls for a return to colder and calmer weather in a couple of days. Look for the DMI graph to flatten out by the weekend.
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Smokey, I could be wrong but there is no mention whatsoever of the NWP in the piece you link to. And do you happen to know when the NWP was open 4 years in a row for the last time?
Regg_upnorth says:
August 19, 2010 at 11:13 am
Um, what the heck? For most lost between now and the minimum extent to ever occur in the JAXA record is 1055781 km^2. For us to reach the 2008 minimum will require 1088281 km^2. And last I check, 1088281>1055781, thus a record loss from 08/18 to the minimum. Now, we could lose a lot of ice today and go below 2008 today. Then we would not need a record loss from 08/19 to the minimum, but that doesn’t change the results from 08/18…I record would still be needed.
And yes I’m well aware that the difference can be made up in one day. Clearly you haven’t been paying attention read my previous posts on this thread or the other recent sea ice threads, because I mention specific daily melts several times.
-Scott
Sorry Günther, here is a more detailed account.
Give up yet?
If not, wait until TonyB posts again. Ask him about the NW Passage. He has a large library of info on this subject.
Smokey says:
August 19, 2010 at 12:09 pm
Günther,
The Northwest Passage has been open repeatedly in the past. Great article. See especially the Conclusion.
Twice in a century is a bit of a stretch to call ‘repeatedly’, not been recorded as open 4 years in a row before.
Scott, sorry i my comments offended you – 32xxxkm^2 is such a small figure, it was not to blame you on any aspect… Personnaly, I don’t think past stats can determine what the current year outcome can be in small details such as that value – it can say the trend but not to that level of details.
In my opinion, it won’t make a big difference if we’re above or below 2008 – both of these years will be in about the same league (as 2006-2007 and 2009).
All that to say, weather out there is quite unpredictable and it can turn one way or the other on a dime as we’ve seen this week.
Someone mentionned the NWP and not much attention in the medias. It’s still early to talk about that (a month in advance according to Env. Canada). Yet, there was something about that on the last NSIDC news. It is looking good to have the passage open and free in september. I don’t see that as good news.
“And do you happen to know when the NWP was open 4 years in a row for the last time?”
For the last time? How about the time before the time before the time before that? How many times during this interglacial? How about since there was water?
What’s the relevance of the NWP and 4 years?
Smokey, that was a very interesting article, showing how the media likes to sensationalize things. We have seen that with Climategate also.
The piece was written in 2007. Perhaps the author would like to do a follow-up and tell us about all the times the NWP was open 4 years in a row in the last 2000 years?
Or perhaps TonyB has some interesting facts regarding the matter. I’m aware of the fact that he is quite an expert on this matter.
Like I said: It’s a good thing – for people who have a psychological problem with the practical and ethical implications of AGW – that all that multi-year ice is currently transported through the Queen Elizabeth Islands and might help keeping the NWP blocked in the next few years. Imagine the NWP being open 5, 6, 7 years in a row…
http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/100810_Northwest_Passage_still_hard_to_navigate/
Ah, so now it will only mean something when the NWP has become a commercial shipping lane. Talk about shifting goalposts. It will buy you some more time to misinform people with a narrowed down version of reality. If this is your goal, of course.
From the same piece:
And, according to Environment Canada’s ice service, ice conditions in the Northwest Passage at the end of July resembled those normally found in the second or third week of August.
Regg_upnorth says:
August 19, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Hey, no prob…I just didn’t like the comment that a record would not need to be broken to reach 2008’s level when in fact it does. I’d agree with you that current extent cannot accurately predict the final minimum. And with weather uncertainty, nothing can really do that currently.
I’m just a bit aggressive on the subject because earlier R. Gates said that the real race was between 2008 and 2010, which didn’t make any sense because a record high loss from here on out would put us essentially equal to 2008 (as you pointed out), whereas a record low loss would actually put us above both 2009 and 2005. So while 2008 isn’t out of the realm of possibility, neither are 2009/2005 or even Steve’s 5.5e6 value. Personally, I think we’ll end up between 2008 and 2009, but it depends on so many variables right now that I think the statistical method just can’t pin it down.
-Scott
Günther
OMG the world is falling apart. It was warmer than normal in one part of the Arctic while other parts were record cold.
From: Günther Kirschbaum on August 19, 2010 at 1:44 pm
Do you really believe in what you preach?
Per IPCC AR4, we are headed for many decades of further global warming, even if we shut down civilization and all related CO2 emissions now. It will go on for centuries to come, it may be a millennium until the rise finally stops.
So you can stop talking about the implications, since they will happen regardless of what we do. An ice free Northwest Passage for years on end? It’ll happen. Clear of ice for a century or longer? That will happen, you cannot stop it. An Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in the summer? Yup, and maybe ice free winters as well, once those powerful positive feedbacks kick in. The glaciers will all melt. Greenland will be laid bare, down to whatever really is underneath all that soon-to-be extinct ice, provided the rising of the sea levels doesn’t cover it all up. Even the Antarctic ice shall go away as well.
So if you really do believe in (C)AGW, with the required acceptance of the findings presented in IPCC AR4, why are you even here exhorting us about the “practical and ethical implications of AGW” anyway? We can’t do anything about it, the warming is inevitable. The ethical implications are moot, the damage has already been done, due to our ignorance and that of many generations that preceded us. The practical implications are what we and our descendants will be adapting to, whatever they are, as they appear.
Perhaps you should consider the “ethical implications” of your spending so much time here arguing over a little bit of doomed sea ice while the long-term planning needed to ensure the survival of our species awaits.
😉
There will not be a NW Passage in the history of our civilization. The only process that will bring about the NW Passage is continental drift, on a timescale of 10^7-8 yrs.
Jeff P says:
August 19, 2010 at 7:26 am
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 11:04 pm
If the winds keep blowing, it will go below 5.5.
——
Oh those sneaky sneaky winds. Odd that they started showing up in 2007.
Who would have guessed that Zephyrus was an AGW supporter
============================================================
JeffP,
I’m not going to let this low blow pass by without response. So answer this please: do you have proof that what happened in 2007 was anything other than natural variation?
Phil,
I asked you this in a post some weeks ago. I continued checking the comments until new comments stopped. You did not reply to me. I want to ask again:
Can you prove to me the Northwest Passage have never been open 4 years in a row before?
Günther Kirschbaum says:
August 19, 2010 at 2:38 pm
the Northwest Passage at the end of July resembled those normally found in the second or third week of August.
=======================================================
This one thing means global warming is happening? Arctic ice is controlled by many factors. Temperature of the earth is just one. And actually the earth has cooled slightly since 1998. Warming is not happening right now. If you’ll look at the ice graphs you’ll see every year since 2007 shows an incrase in ice. If you wanted to you could easily make an argument about global warming not happening because Arctic ice is increasing and temperature is cooling slightly. But you don’t look at the bigger picture. You look at one single line of information and act like you want to convince people global warming is happening because of what it says.
You should focus on shorter growing seasons and longer winters that are happening on the earth. If you have friends in poor countries you might want to think about saving money to send to them to buy food in case food shortages begin to happen from this cooler climate around the world. There are also good organizations that ship food to poor countries. They may need extra help in years to soon come.
kakada,
We believe that it can be prevented. The point of the IPCC AR4 is that we are headed for serious trouble if we continue down the current path. If, however, we take steps to significantly reduce CO2 emissions then we can prevent that serious trouble. Thus, trying to convince those who are sceptical of this may be a worthwhile, although very difficult, endeavour.
Kadaka, I believe there is a difference in outcome between following business-as-usual or transitioning towards a sustainable society. I have adjusted my lifestyle accordingly.
But there’s not much use in adjusting my lifestyle if others such as you either stick their head in the sand because they are fearful of changing unhealthy conditioned habits, or cowardly party until the end of the world because it’s too late either way. Those types of mentality are unfortunately not an option for me.
I can voluntarily stop shitting in the street in front of my house, but if all my neighbours decide not to bother and keep shitting all over the neighbourhood, I’ll be just as vulnerable to infectious diseases and smell shit everywhere.
You want to have the right to shit all over the place and are thereby limiting my pursuit of freedom and happiness. That is what is happening and that’s why we live in a unsustainable society.
I guess that somehow I’m hoping that what is happening in the Arctic makes you more aware of the implications your actions and lifestyle are having on other people and societies around the world. Perhaps you would also start realizing that switching to a sustainable society would be something good, noble and rational to strive for. Together, you and me. For ourselves, for our kids and for all other kids.
But if you don’t want a sustainable society, you won’t be getting one. And unfortunately, neither will I.
Günther
I am an avid environmentalist and my major mode of transport is by bicycle. I make my kids ride everywhere too.
But I am offended by the horrifically bad politics masquerading as “science” behind global warming. This is the biggest bunch of cr@p I have ever looked at in my 35 years of professional science and engineering.
Steven, AGW is just one of many symptoms of an unsustainable society. I don’t see much use in a crusade denouncing all of climate science as a hoax or a big bunch of crap. The end effect of that is most probably that you are keeping the forces in place that perpetuate the unsustainable society.
And that is under the hypothesis that AGW is a hoax/crap. What if it isn’t…
For instance, the Arctic still isn’t recovering.
Günther
The Arctic isn’t “recovering” from what?
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=17&fy=2005&sm=08&sd=17&sy=2010
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=08&fd=17&fy=1995&sm=08&sd=17&sy=2010
I’m not one of those people who believes that the end justifies the means. The path to hell is paved with good intentions.
It’s well possible that your good intention on WUWT is to show people how much climate science is a huge piece of crap. WUWT is one of the climate blogs with the most readers. If your good intention is wrong, you’ve paved yourself a lovely road to hell. Please, don’t think that what you are doing is without consequences. There is a very good chance that you are misinforming a large amount of people by simply telling them what they want to hear.
Günther
I didn’t say “climate science” is a bunch of crap, did I? Tell the truth …
stevengoddard,
Then can you clarify what the ‘this’ refers to? Does it refer to the politics behind the science?
“This is the biggest bunch of cr@p … “