By Steve Goddard
August 16, 2010 offered a great opportunity to put all the Arctic data together in a coherent picture. DMI showed a large drop in extent.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
You can see the drop between August 15 and August 16 clearly in red in the modified NSIDC map below.
So what happened? Did 300,000 km2 of ice suddenly melt?
Not exactly. There were very strong winds pushing the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas towards the pole on August 15. This compacted the ice, reducing extent while increasing the average thickness.
You can see the August 15 movement of ice in Beaufort Sea in the satellite blink map below. Note how the ice edge is tightening up and compacting.
Will this continue? Probably not. The weather forecast calls for a return to colder and calmer weather in a couple of days. Look for the DMI graph to flatten out by the weekend.
Andy W
Wind blowing from the south melted 2007 ice.
__________________________________
Andy – have you never watched the video of the ice being blown out of Fram Strait in 2007. The clockwise rotation and ice flow out through Fram Strait was very impressive. Melting winds from the south were not the issue. Winds from the south in that region appear to help maintain the ice in the arctic.
I observe AMSU for years and I copied scans every few days building an animation that showed clearly the Antartic edges warming up substantially just 2 days before the first Chile earthquake . Site ( for Channel 1 of the AMSU instrument ) :
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/AAT_Browse.php?chan=1&satnum=15&aord=a
Main site : http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
A similar situation was developing at the Noth Pole which now subsided by half while the South is still expanding its heat signature .
It does look like a Mega Volcano is just about to change things at the South Pole while maybe triggering Pacific earthquakes .
Please comment .
Thank you ,
Doru
Canada
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Check this out – DMI temperatures above normal for the first time in months. The blast of southerly air made it all the way to the pole.
Naaah, that’s not a blast of wind, or an eddie or nothing like that. That’s an effect from global warming. But if the line goes down that’s a bad measurement at a small country place. How can that little Dane place be right then? Poor folksy people, they can’t understand global warming.When that’s happening then you have to get the temperature from trusty GISS. 😉
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 5:45 pm
phil.
You have quite an imagination. The iceberg has just been rotating, and the ice to the north is rapidly consolidating.
Quite the comedian as usual Goddard, the iceberg has not “just been rotating” as I said it has been edging its way out as this movie clearly shows. As you can also see in that movie the ice is moving through the Nares strait at a rate of ~30km/day, hardly consolidating!
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b0133f327041b970b-pi
Michael Hauber says:
August 18, 2010 at 6:01 pm
“If there was any evidence of compaction it would be the open areas of water within the ice area becoming smaller. If anything all I can see is these areas becoming bigger, which signifies melt (although cloud in the first picture may be helping to trick my eyes), and the whole ice mass moving rapidly towards the pole, which I’m pretty sure is causing some compaction, as the proportion of open water within the ice nearer the north pole and greenland has noticeably decreased in the last week or so. But no compaction in this picture.
Also this picture shows what remains of what earlier in the season was a fairly solid spur of multi year ice. You can see how along the outer edge there are many larger floes. This compares to the younger ice to the bottom right of the photo which even though closer to the north pole is in the last stages of melt and has broken down into floes that are too small to individually pick up at this resolution.”
There are plenty of examples of compaction to be seen if you bother to take a look at the high definition satellite images. I can’t possibly see how you could miss them unless your just taking a 2 second glance. This doesnt mean we havent lost area also in some places but you have to be kidding if your trying to argue that compaction hasn’t been a significant cause in drop in extent in the past few days.
By the same token divergence probably played a significant part in the July extent results.
One thing I find puzzling is the chart on Cryosphere Today seems to be showing ice area loss flattening out probably to a level in excess of the 2009 result. However most other charts I’ve seen for ice area don’t show this flattening out.
One thing I would expect if the ice is compacting and reducing extent is that the area loss would be much flatter. This is what were seeing on the Crysosphere Chart but not on any of the others.
Fred says: August 18, 2010 at 9:58 am
“Which points to the need for an Arctic ice measurement based on Mass.
Sort of what ACE does for hurricanes. Call it AIM. Accumulated Ice Mass.”
You could also call it DIM. Declining Ice Mass 😉
My special AMSR-E Arctic region sea ice anomaly plot, using the NSIDC average melt-freeze shape with the AMSR-E data record average value, shows this year’s ice just reaching the zero anomaly point and then holding that level. I see similar slips sideways in mid July and then again for the last few days at the end of July.
My zero on the ASMR-E anomaly plot corresponds to about -700,000 sq-km on the NSIDC anomaly plot for data that spans the last 30 years. My average annual NSIDC melt-freeze curve is constructed from a Fourier series representation that was automatically calculated over the largest available central integer year period.
Me, with my 5.1 (posted on the prediction thread on the Blackboard in June).
Here’s a nice clear picture of part of the NWP today:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2010230.terra
The preliminary 08/18 JAXA number indicates that the recent bleeding (or compaction, whichever term you want to use) may have slowed, with a daily loss of only 37188 km^2. However, the damage from the previous two days’ losses was already done, and the current extent prediction method is now predicting 4.98e6 km^2.
To really make headway, we need to see a sporadic day here or there of increased extent. The first day of this in the JAXA record was 08/16 in 2002, followed by 08/24 in both 2002/2006. The only other August day with an increasing extent was 08/31 in 2006. By 09/04, however, all the years in the record except 2003 had shown at least one day with an extent increase.
On the other hand, if an extent increase is due to winds/divergence and occurs too early, it may lead to increased melt before the minimum occurs. 🙁
-Scott
David W:
‘There are plenty of examples of compaction to be seen if you bother to take a look at the high definition satellite images. ‘
Of course there are. As I mentioned in my post there is compaction visible near the North Pole and near Greenland.
Just no compaction visible in the MODIS image shown at the top of this post.
Wayne Delbeke said:-
_________________________________
“Andy – have you never watched the video of the ice being blown out of Fram Strait in 2007. The clockwise rotation and ice flow out through Fram Strait was very impressive. Melting winds from the south were not the issue. Winds from the south in that region appear to help maintain the ice in the arctic.”
***
Ice is lost through the Framm Straight, Nares etc, but the reduction in the summer months is not due to it all being lost that way. Looking at an impressive video gives you no indication what percentage is lost that way compared to melt / compaction etc. Southerly winds are one of the main reasons for reduction in extent, by melt in situe and compaction. At the moment there is a 10C wind blowing from Siberia, I can assure you that has some effect on the extent value.
On another topic, the Modis image Phil showed earlier shows fantastically how little ice there is in the Northern route of the NW passage.
Andy
It looks like some think it’s a done deal that 5.5 can’t happen, or that higher than 2009 can’t happen. But look how much room there is:
http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/6696/zzamsreseaiceextentl.png
If 2010 does indeed flatten like 2006 did 5.5 and/or higher than 2009 could happen. It ain’t over till it’s over. Heck, 2005 in JAXA still could be crossed.
🙂
Amino Acids in Meteorites,
Lots of things *could* happen. But at this stage of the game, there are fewer than 300,000 square kilometres of extent to lose for us to hit 5.5 million. The average loss in September to the minimum alone over the last few years was 280,000 square kilometres.
It is indeed not over until it is over. But it is very unlikely that the minimum will be 5.5 plus.
Still, to boost your spirts, today’s loss of extent was well below average for the day in question. 🙂
As to higher than 2009, there is a little bit more room there – 250,000 square kilometres more. But even that has (from the statistics) less than 30 per cent chance of happening.
In my previous graph http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/6696/zzamsreseaiceextentl.png I didn’t know exactly where 5.5 was or I would have put a red line on it.
Steven Goddard,
If you have the time could you make a red line in a JAXA graph at 5.5 and link it here? I think it’s not just me that would like to see it. Maybe it could be in all the Arctic ice posts until minimum so people can munch popcorn and watch.
BTW if anyone doesn’t have popcorn I can mail some to you 😉
(the wink means just kidding)
Amino,
Below is a video showing JAXA 2010 as red, 2006 as green, and my 5.5 forecast as dashed. If the 2010 slope breaks this week like 2006 did – it should hit 5.5 almost exactly. If the winds keep blowing, it will go below 5.5.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADCpfBD37-4]
Try again
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgdfWB_25qk]
David Gould says:
August 18, 2010 at 10:34 pm
Still, to boost your spirts
No need. I’m fine. Would you like some popcorn?
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 11:04 pm
If the winds keep blowing, it will go below 5.5.
You have said all along it’s about the winds. Anyone who’s been following knows that.
But one thing we can all agree on with or without wind there is no alarming thinning/rotted ice and PIOMAS is wrong. 😉
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 3:28 pm
NK
It isn’t an accurate prediction yet. If the winds keep up, extent will continue to drop.
If the winds turn in the other direction, will the extent climb ? Then your prediction of 5.5 million sq km might turn out to have been “too conservative”, as you have implied several times.
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 2:56 pm
George E. Smith
The reason I think that the ice is piling up is because PIPS shows a higher average thickness than it did a week ago.
If the thinnest ice shelves on the margin of the Arctic are melting away, the remaining ice will have a higher average thickness.
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 2:14 pm
George E. Smith
The ice edge is moving radially inwards towards the pole, so by definition it is becoming more concentrated.
Not if the margins are melting – the ice edge will move radially towards the pole, but that does not imply concentration of remaining ice. You cannot assume that which you want to prove.
stevengoddard says:
August 18, 2010 at 5:22 pm
David Gould
I can’t imagine the circumstances which would make my prediction “not in the ballpark.”
Yes, I suppose that’s true – you can’t imagine the circumstances.
Did you ever read the papers I mentioned months ago when you said “your readers” weren’t interested in my ideas on the Arctic summer melt ?
e.g.
http://www.see.ed.ac.uk/~shs/Climate%20change/Data%20sources/Perovic%20ice%20cover.pdf
I have many other citations, but I suspect even a 4 page paper is too much to ask of most of “your readers”. FYI, the last week in August had the greatest rates of bottom melt, as measured by ice mass balance buoys.
Since my prediction has always been “less than 2009, IARC-JAXA numbers” – which means a minimum lower than 5,249,844 sq km – the extreme limit of your “ballpark” stops at 2009 levels. Claiming an “error-bar” of ± 500,000 sq km, or ± 1,000,000 sq km, is not going to cut it in late September – but having said that, best of luck with your Wishful Thinking.
p.s. Did England do poorly at the World Cup this summer because of The Wind ? Seems to be trouble for you blokes…
David Gould says:
August 18, 2010 at 10:36 pm
less than 30 per cent chance of happening.
“Never tell me the odds.”
Considering the old predictions of ice free North pole in 2013 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_ice_cap, 2010 GISS Global temps being record highs especially in the Artic regions, the actual Ice extent in the Artic seems to be remarkably high considering. Bad case of models vs real life 😉 .